Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 88,370 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with an increase of 29,581 lots in the Shanghai Copper Index to 613,100 lots. The spot copper price soared, weakening downstream procurement sentiment, and the spot discount widened [1] - **Important Information**: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September increased the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. SMM estimated that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons [1][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, and the supply of copper ore was tight, while consumption was weak with some resilience. The market was expected to have an increase in supply and weak demand this week [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and consider cross - period positive spreads after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,441 lots to 488,900 lots. The spot price showed a narrow decline [7] - **Related Information**: Xinjiang and Shandong had alumina spot transactions. The national alumina inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 4.061 million tons as of October 23. The Australian alumina price decreased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina increased after the downstream stocking was completed. The price was expected to bottom out in the short term, and a rebound might occur if production cuts expanded [11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November for single - side trading, with a short - term narrow rebound. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [11][12] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract rose 130 yuan to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 28,105 lots to 635,200 lots. The spot price increased [14] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. Some overseas aluminum smelters had production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased slightly [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment was positive. Overseas supply was tight, and domestic consumption had some resilience [18] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the external market for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [19] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 35 yuan to 20,715 yuan/ton. The spot price remained stable [21] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data showed certain changes [21][22][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors were positive. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and demand had some support [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the aluminum price for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 rose 0.34% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 94 lots to 213,500 lots. The spot trading was not improved [29] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Shengda Resources' subsidiary was approved to resume work [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply was abundant, and the external market was strong. The export profit widened, and the Shanghai Zinc price was likely to rise [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for single - side trading. Consider a buy - SHFE and sell - LME strategy based on export conditions. Sell out - of - the - money put options [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2512 fell 0.06% to 17,520 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 6,702 lots to 129,200 lots. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [36] - **Related Information**: A large lead - battery enterprise in East China planned to cut production. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term lead price was driven up by funds, but the medium - long - term fundamentals were under pressure [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [39] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 rose 420 to 122,400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,478 lots. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [41] - **Important Information**: Indonesia promoted a cooperation project with Huayou Cobalt. A new nickel brand applied for LME certification. Norilsk Nickel maintained its 2025 production forecast [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, but the LME nickel inventory limited the upward space of the nickel price. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [42] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract for options [43][44][45] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 10 to 12,815 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 27,223 lots. The spot price was stable [47] - **Important Information**: The export of Indonesian stainless steel to Taiwan increased, and a high - end stainless - steel project in Jiangsu was progressing [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand was not optimistic at the end of the peak season, and the cost support was not strong. The price was boosted by the reduction of warehouse receipts and general commodity price increases [49] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention to the upper resistance. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,260 yuan/ton or 1.15%, and the position increased by 6,739 lots to 75,935 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the trading was not active [53] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The US CPI growth was lower than expected. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic policies were positive for the tin price, but the terminal demand recovery was slow. The supply of tin ore was tight [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive domestic macro expectations and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The industrial silicon export volume in September was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import volume in January - September decreased by 64% year - on - year [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The production in the northwest was at a high level, and the southwest would reduce production in November. The demand was stable, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [62] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65][66] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The polysilicon production in the southwest would decrease in November. The demand for silicon wafers was average, and there was a possibility of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to strengthen after capacity integration [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads on far - month contracts for arbitrage, and hold long call options [70][71][72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 2,020 to 81,900 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,361 lots. The spot price increased [74] - **Important Information**: The performance of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., EVE Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy was announced. Whengsheng Technology achieved large - scale supply of battery materials [75][77] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand was driven by the growth of power and energy storage, and the supply of lithium ore was tight. The inventory and warehouse receipts decreased. The market was bullish [77] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78] Group 3: Data Tables and Graphs - The report also provides daily data tables for each metal, including price, spread, inventory, and other information, as well as graphs showing the trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [80][91]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, a large positive and a large negative line in the Shanghai Nickel market basically digested some macro - impacts during the National Day. Spot trading was acceptable. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries still declined, having limited impact on nickel demand. In the short - term, sentiment risks increased, and in the medium - to - long - term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800. If there is macro - stimulation, the upper and lower limits may expand. Short - selling on rallies can be considered. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: After the holiday, market fluctuations digested macro - impacts. The nickel ore price was firm due to the approaching Philippine rainy season and limited earthquake impact on mining. The nickel - iron price was weakly stable with enterprises in loss. Stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery loading declined, limiting nickel demand. Short - term sentiment risks increased, and the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remained [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may expand the range with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased slightly. Low - nickel and high - nickel iron prices were mostly stable. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased slightly. The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: The nickel ore price was stable, and sea freight was flat. As of October 9, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports was 15.0093 million wet tons, an increase of 6.1%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a significant increase. The Philippines was entering the rainy season, and mines had firm quotes. Earthquakes in the Philippines had limited impact on mining. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices oscillated with acceptable trading volume. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would increase, but the oversupply pattern remained. The substitution of ternary in the new energy industry chain was obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, with an increase in October expected. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased [22][26][36]. - **Nickel - Iron Market**: Nickel - iron prices were mainly stable. In September 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased. In August 2025, the nickel - iron import volume increased significantly. The nickel - iron inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons [43][46][49]. - **Stainless - Steel Market**: The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless - steel import was 117,100 tons, and the export was 447,900 tons. As of October 10, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, an increase of 77,700 tons [57][63][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, and the power - battery sales volume was 98.9 GWh. The power - battery loading volume was 62.5 GWh, with the ternary battery loading volume decreasing [73][76]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, after the holiday, there was a large positive and a large negative line. There was some capital inflow, and short - selling positions increased. The MACD had no clear direction, and the KDJ was at the 50 mid - value. Technically, the range - oscillation pattern remained unchanged [79]. 4. Industry Chain Combing Summary - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Price**: Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel had a neutral impact on nickel prices. Refined nickel had a neutral - to - bearish impact, and the new energy sector had a neutral impact [82]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may reach 125,800 with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The contradiction between macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesia, will put pressure on nickel prices [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro and real - world factors are jointly pressuring prices, but the cost floor limits the downside elasticity. It is expected to oscillate weakly next week [5]. - Industrial silicon: Inventory has shifted to accumulation, and there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. The supply is expected to exceed demand, and the trading strategy is to sell high [27][32]. - Polysilicon: A weekend industry meeting was held, and policy logic still exists. There are policy expectations, and investors can look for buying opportunities after the market sentiment is released [27][33]. - Lithium carbonate: Macro factors are suppressing prices, and it is expected to operate weakly. The price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton [62][65]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation are pressuring prices. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals have marginally improved, the inventory accumulation contradiction in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase uncertainties [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Macro and real - world factors are pressuring demand, and the cost provides a floor. However, the short - term price may oscillate weakly due to factors such as production capacity and inventory [5]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: Chinese refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [8]. - **New energy**: There were changes in the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines in October [8]. - **Nickel - stainless steel**: SMM nickel - iron inventory was stable in September, and stainless - steel factory and social inventories changed [8]. Market News - Indonesia has taken measures such as taking over part of the WBN park and suspending the production of some mining companies, which may affect nickel - ore supply [9]. - The US may impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1, which may impact stainless - steel exports [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - **Industrial silicon**: The futures price oscillated, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 silicon price was 8,850 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the Inner Mongolia 99 silicon price was 9,000 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price declined, and the spot price was stable, with the Friday closing price at 48,965 yuan/ton [27]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial silicon**: Supply: Xinjiang factories are resuming production, and Southwest China may reduce production in the future. October production is expected to increase to 440,000 tons. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and silicone support consumption, but overall demand improvement is limited [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply: Production is expected to increase in October and then decline. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Silicon - wafer production is expected to decrease in October, and the next restocking is expected in mid - October [29][31]. Market Outlook - **Industrial silicon**: The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the trading strategy is to sell high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt volume [32]. - **Polysilicon**: There are policy expectations. After the market sentiment is released, look for buying opportunities. Focus on the restocking situation in mid - October [33]. Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - The futures contract price oscillated. The 2511 contract closed at 72,740 yuan/ton (down 1,300 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the 2601 contract closed at 72,900 yuan/ton (down 1,100 yuan/ton week - on - week). The spot price was 73,550 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [62]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Weekly production reached a new high of 20,635 tons. Zangge Mining obtained new mining rights [63]. - **Demand**: The short - term spot market is strong, but macro - level export controls and potential US tariffs may impact demand [63]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased to 134,800 tons, with upstream inventory accumulating during the holiday and downstream and trading - link inventory decreasing [63]. Market Outlook - The price is expected to operate weakly, with the futures price in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to focus on positive spreads for cross - period trading and increase the proportion of selling hedging [65][66][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Grasberg's unexpected production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the copper's medium - term allocation value is still optimistic [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and it's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices oscillated this week, with a short - term unilateral weak oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see, and partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak, and there is a certain motivation for price support on the policy side [3][4][5] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. Short - term observation is recommended, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated this week. After the hype of supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbances [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident postponed Grasberg's复产, reducing the 2026 copper guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase next year without the复产 of the Panama mine [1] - Fund long positions are increasing, and the copper's allocation enthusiasm is expected to rise. It's advisable to consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and downstream start - up improved. There was a slight destocking in September, and a seasonal slight inventory build - up is expected in October [1] - It's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to long - short spreads and cross - market arbitrage [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreased further, and imported TC increased further. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2] - The smelting end will repair slightly in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge [2] - The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it's recommended to wait and see. Partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, steel mills are expected to resume production slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and the policy side has a certain price - support motivation [3] - For stainless steel, the situation is similar to nickel, with weak fundamentals and policy - side price - support motivation [3][4][5] Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply is affected by low scrap volume, tight waste batteries, and low smelting profits [7] - Demand improved slightly due to National Day stocking, but the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the overall destocking strength needs verification [7] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] Tin - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. The supply side is undergoing marginal repair, and the demand side is mainly rigid - supported [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term supply - demand dual - weak. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. The supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices oscillated. The raw material side has strong price - support willingness, and the lithium salt side's pre - holiday stocking is almost over [11] - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, with a surplus in static supply - demand. After the supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg's unexpected copper production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the mid - term allocation value of copper is still optimistic, with consideration of long - term mid - term orders or selling put options below 78,000 [1] - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are acceptable, and one can hold at low prices in a low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1] - Zinc prices are oscillating this week. The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see; for domestic - foreign arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be made for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak. The short - term macro aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and the policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [3][4] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 [5] - Tin prices are in a wide - range oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and one can lightly short above 275,000 yuan/ton; in the medium - to - long - term, hold near the cost line at low prices [10] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are balanced in September and October, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillates. With the support of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy - storage demand, the monthly balance after CATL's production cut turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is average [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident delays Grasberg's resumption of production, reducing the 2026 copper production guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase in the mine supply next year if the Panama mine does not resume production [1] - Fund long positions are gradually increasing, but the focus of macro and bulk CTA funds is still on precious metals. The gold - copper ratio is at a low historical quantile [1] Aluminum - Supply increases slightly, and aluminum ingot imports provide an increase from January to August [1] - Downstream construction improves, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules stabilizes. Attention should be paid to whether overseas demand stabilizes after the decline [1] - There is a slight inventory reduction in September, and a seasonal slight inventory increase is expected in October [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreases further, and imported TC increases further. The domestic zinc ore supply is tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas mine supply increased unexpectedly in the second quarter [2] - In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic social inventory oscillates, and overseas LME inventory decreases. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is close to opening [2] Nickel - The supply side expects a slight resumption of production by steel mills, the demand side is mainly for rigid demand, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [3] - There is a slight inventory increase in Xifu, and a slight inventory reduction in warehouse receipts [3] Stainless Steel - The supply side expects a slight resumption of production by steel mills, the demand side is mainly for rigid demand, the price of nickel iron remains stable, and the price of chrome iron rises slightly [3][4] - There is inventory reduction in Xifu, and a slight inventory reduction in warehouse receipts [3][4] Lead - On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery is in short supply, the recycled lead maintains low - level operation, and the TC quotation is in a chaotic decline [5] - On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, the battery construction rate increases this week, and the demand turns slightly prosperous [5] - The refined - scrap price difference is - 75, the long - term supply in Henan is tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decrease by 20,000 tons [5] Tin - On the supply side, the domestic smelting plants reduce production, and the supply from overseas gradually recovers. The supply side is marginally repaired [10] - On the demand side, the demand for solder is mainly rigid. The downstream restocking intention is strong when the price drops rapidly this week, and the inventory reduction is significant [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the expected changes after October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises resume production, and some factories in the southwest may gradually reduce production later [11] - The supply and demand are balanced in September and October, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material end has strong price - support intention from overseas mines and reluctant selling from traders, but salt factories have low acceptance of high - price lithium mines [11] - The pre - holiday stocking rhythm of the lithium - salt end is strong first and then weak, and the spot basis is weakly stable, with some discounts expanding by 100 - 200 yuan [11] - In the context of strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity is high after the supply - side disturbance speculation materializes, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbance materializes [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].

Report Overview - Date: September 4, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The fundamental logic shows a narrow - range oscillation, and news stimulates sentiment [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices are running in a narrow - range oscillation [2] - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market [2] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the logic is to short at high prices [2] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of market news [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,915, down 45 from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 87,549, down 43,080 [5] - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790, down 740. The trading volume is 125,550, down 3,232 [5] Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [6] - Environmental violations were found in Indonesia's IMIP, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [7] - The approved RKAB production in Indonesia in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons, higher than in 2024 [7] - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of all EF lines, expected to affect monthly production by about 1,900 tons of nickel metal [7][8] - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [8] - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance, reducing hot - rolled coil supply [8] - The Indonesian president will crack down on illegal mining [9] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract is 72,080, down 1,200. The trading volume is 94, down 786. The open interest is 5,571, down 2,123 [11] - The closing price of the 2511 contract is 71,880, down 740. The trading volume is 442,800, down 177,641. The open interest is 346,048, down 2,061 [11] - The warehouse receipt volume is 34,118, up 2,111 [11] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton [12] - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, down 19.2% month - on - month and up 4.9% year - on - year [12] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract is 8,490, up 20. The trading volume is 275,841, down 69,772. The open interest is 279,742, down 1,738 [16] - The closing price of the PS2511 contract is 52,160, up 285. The trading volume is 362,759, down 168,019. The open interest is 149,210, up 3,355 [16] - Industrial silicon social inventory is 54.1 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.5 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 25.2 million tons [16] - Polysilicon factory inventory is 21.3 million tons [16] Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia's Wulatezhongqi plans to invest 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 22 billion yuan during the 15th Five - Year Plan in new energy projects [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]