从债券市场看，上周利率债收益率普遍上行，信用债收益率环比普遍下行。利率债自9月中旬以后止 跌，转入震荡；信用债 9月依然走弱，但国庆以来转入震荡偏强。本轮债市调整自6月底开始，主要与 风险偏好的摇摆、投资者对"反内卷"等期待有关。泓德基金分析，在9月份，部分品种收益率最高水平 已接近3月中旬，转入震荡是可以理解的，操作上也许也应该回归中性看待。后续继续观察风偏变化和 政策进展。 风险提示：本材料中的观点和判断仅供参考，不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议或实际的 投资结果。本基金管理人不保证其中的观点和判断不会发生任何调整或变更，且不就材料中的内容对最 终操作建议做出任何担保。投资有风险，入市须谨慎。基金产品由基金管理公司发行与管理，销售机构 不承担产品的投资、兑付风险管理责任。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 上周中美博弈升级，增加未来市场不确定性，避险需求持续发酵，A股股指均收跌，以小盘市值、双创 板块回调最为明显。具体来看，科创50、创业板和中证1000指数跌幅较大。前期涨幅落后的红利板块在 市场调整过程中，呈现出一定的防御特征，中证红利指数全周小幅上涨。从行业来看，上周银行、煤 炭、食品 ...

策略周报（20251013-20251017） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.4850%下降至 1.4685%，较前期减少了 1.65 个 bp；DR007 由 1.4229%下降至 1.4085%，较前期减少了 1.44 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较 前期减小了 0.21 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周增加了 0.04 个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为114.27亿元,资金净流入较上周减少了289.14 亿元，其中资金供给为 808.60 亿元，资金需求为 694.33 亿元。具体来看， 资金供给减少了 45.59 亿元，其中融资净买入减少了 600.93 亿元，股票分 红增加了 393.05 亿元，股票型 ETF 净申赎增加了 113.41 亿元，股票型基 金与混合基金成立增加了 48.88 亿元；资金需求增加了 243.55 亿元。 ⚫ 行业板块流动性跟踪 本周中信一级行业多数板块下跌，市场风格整体偏弱，板块分化格局 延续。从行业数量看，下跌板块多于上涨板块，跌幅面占据主导。在上涨方 面，银行板块表现最为突出，周涨幅为 4.99%，同时煤炭等行业亦有小幅上 涨。下跌方面，电子、传媒 ...

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 A股市场缩量调整后或如何演绎？ 2025年10月20日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待上周A股市场缩量调整？ • 一、如何看待上周A股市场缩量调整？ 3 • 上周A股主要指数量能全面回落，以小盘市值、双创板块最为明显。沪深300指数交投减弱，日均成 交从9月约6629亿元降至上周约6500亿元。中证500、中证1000等中盘股与小盘股指数的成交下滑更 为显著，降幅分别为10%与12%。创业综指、科创综指上周日均成交额分别较9月大幅下降20%、 13%。各行业普遍缩量，科技成长板块降温最显著，少数防御类或价值板块成交相对坚挺。上周申万 31个一级行业中有21个板块日均成交额低于9月日均水平，减少金额居前的主要是电子、通信、计算 机等板块。近期受黄金价格上涨影响，有色金属板块成交额逆势增长，上周日均成交额较9月增加570 亿元；另外，少数防御类或价值板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound, with significant gains in major tech stocks, driven by positive economic data and easing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose over 2%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by more than 3% [1]. - Major tech stocks such as Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, Bilibili-W, Meituan-W, and Xiaomi Group-W saw gains of over 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 450.89 billion HKD last week, the highest in five weeks, indicating strong interest in the Hong Kong stock market [4]. - Year-to-date, net inflows from southbound capital have exceeded 1.1 trillion HKD, reflecting a positive sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with the National Bureau of Statistics highlighting stable economic performance and progress in high-quality development [3]. - Easing trade tensions, marked by a video call between U.S. and Chinese trade leaders, has contributed to a more favorable market environment [3]. Group 4: ETF and Sector Performance - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) opened higher, with a price increase of 2.25% and a trading volume exceeding 400 million HKD [2][4]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, with major holdings including Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W, which together account for over 46% of the ETF's weight [4][5]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - The CSI Hong Kong Internet Index has a current P/E ratio of 26.69, which is lower than both U.S. and A-share tech valuations, indicating potential for growth [7]. - The index has shown significant resilience, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index in terms of elasticity this year, particularly under the influence of AI concepts [6][7].

理性投资，风险自担 股指周报：中美大国博弈仍在反复，关注四中全会是否利多提振 正信期货股指期货周报 20251020 研究员：蒲祖林 2 行情回顾 资金流向 14 其它分析 3 宏观基本面 目 录 行情回顾 投资咨询证号：Z0017203 Email：puzl@zxqh.net 核心观点 宏观：美国政府关门持续影响避险情绪，叠加中美在APEC会议前反复博弈式摩擦，市场开启RISK OFF交易，甚至有 所担忧经济衰退风险，利空高估和过度拥挤的AI科技资产。国内下周召开十五五规划和四中全会，关注是否有超预期利 多，若无，市场有进一步调整风险。 中观：内需层面，国内经济数据持续疲软，尤其是消费和地产端，四季度经济仍有压力，工业企业产能利用率边际下降 ，凸显反内卷政策缓慢推进，扭转通缩持续进行，9月CPI和PPI确认这一逻辑，顺周期行业龙头公司盈利前景利好。 资金：国内流动性总体宽松，央行根据债务融资减少在公开市场收紧资金，被动ETF基金和两融资金持续获得资金追捧 ，但是，随着市场涨至高位，产业资本持续加大减持，同时近期外资大幅流出，叠加信贷脉冲开始高位回落，市场流动 性利多有所松动。 估值：各指数短期小幅调整后估值 ...

农业银行盘中探底回升，现涨超1%，股价续创历史新高，日K线录得12连阳，截至发稿，最新股价报7.71元/股，总市值突破2.7万亿元。 截至发稿，沪指上涨0.9%，报3874.41点；深证成指上涨1.72%，报12907.70点；创业板指上涨3.06%，报3025.31点。沪深京三市上涨个股超4200家。 20日早盘，电广传媒（000917）高开高走，10点30分后直线拉升，迅速封死涨停板。截至发稿，最新股价报8.64元/股。 | A 成父重 | 59.44 万 分时量: 442 ↓ 北童: 40 | 10:45 | 8.64 | 202 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78087 | | 10:45 | 8.64 | 24 | | | | 10:45 | 8.64 | 71 | | | | 10:45 | 8.64 | 10 | | | | 10:45 | 8.64 | 11 | | MACD | DIF:0.104 ↓ DEA:0.093 ↑ M:0.021 ↓ | 10:45 | 8.64 | 6 | | 0.108 | | 10:45 | 8.64 | 6 | | ...

| 序号 | 4695 | 简称 | 更日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月） (%) | | 1 | 002083.SZ | 幸日股份 | 10.02 | 17.95 | 2.57 | | 2 | 601187.SH | 厦门银行 | 2.67 | 25.42 | 4.49 | | 3 | 002807.SZ | 江阴银行 | 1.88 | 17.26 | 4.11 | | 4 | 601288.SH | 农业银行 | 1.74 | 49.11 | 3.17 | | 5 | 000719.SZ | 中原传媒 | 1.56 | 14.32 | 4.84 | | 6 | 600188.SH | 兖矿能源 | 1.55 | 12.17 | 6.32 | | 7 | 603558 SH | 健盛集团 | 1.53 | 5.04 | 5.28 | | 8 | 605599.SH | 菜自股份 | 1.40 | 39.44 | 4.73 | | ರಿ | 600901.SH | 江苏金租 | ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 风险资产博弈与波动显著提升 股票市场概览 本周 A 股下跌，港股下跌，美股上涨，其他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长及红利风格超额净值处于历史低位；风格拥挤度 近期上升至历史均衡位置。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格拥挤度近期上升至历史均衡位置，大盘风格 拥挤度近期上升至历史高位。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度下降至历史低位；基金重仓超额 累计净值持续处于历史低位，拥挤度近期上行至历史高位。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为银行、煤炭、食品饮料；领跌的行业为电子、传媒、 国防军工。本周成交热度最高的行业为国防军工、机械、钢铁；成交热 度最低的行业为食品饮料、农林牧渔、综合金融。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为有色金属、钢铁、石油石 化，居后的行业为医药、银行、机械。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率下跌，中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元贬值，离岸人民币较美元升值。 商品市场 本周中 ...

Market Performance - Alibaba-W led the rebound with a nearly 5% increase, followed by Kuaishou-W and Bilibili-W with over 4% gains, and Meituan-W with over 3% [1] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) rose by 2.25%, with a trading volume exceeding 160 million yuan within the first half hour of trading [2][3] Industry Insights - The Hong Kong Internet ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, with Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W being the top three holdings, accounting for 18.92%, 15.60%, and 11.54% of the total weight, respectively [4][5] - The index has shown significant resilience this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a year-to-date increase of 55.11% compared to 45.79% for the Hang Seng Technology Index [6] Economic Context - Recent video calls between U.S. and Chinese trade leaders have eased market tensions, with expectations for further trade negotiations [3] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting, which could encourage foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index is 26.69, which is lower than the historical average and significantly better than U.S. and A-share technology sectors [6] - The index's performance over the past five years has varied, with notable fluctuations, including a 109.31% increase in 2020 and a 36.61% decrease in 2021 [8]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the TMT industry, particularly highlighting the increasing demand for AI capabilities and related infrastructure [3][5]. Core Insights - The overseas demand for computing power is expected to rise significantly, with OpenAI announcing a procurement of 10GW computing power acceleration cards from Broadcom, aiming for deployment by the end of 2029 [5]. - Anthropic's release of the Claude Haiku 4.5 lightweight model is anticipated to enhance AI penetration across various scenarios due to its balance of performance, speed, and cost [5]. - The report suggests focusing on segments of the computing power supply chain, including optical modules, PCBs, servers, and power supplies, as they are likely to benefit from the growing demand [5]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The TMT sector experienced declines in the week of October 13-17, with the computer sector down by 5.61%, communication down by 5.92%, media down by 6.27%, and electronics down by 7.14% [5][10]. - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, noting significant declines in semiconductor equipment and optical components [5][13]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - OpenAI's procurement of computing power and the expansion of partnerships with companies like Oracle and AMD are key developments indicating a robust future for AI infrastructure [5][25]. - The report mentions significant advancements in AI models and applications, including new models from Microsoft and Baidu, which are expected to drive further innovation in the industry [5][19][20].