10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》） 正式发布。 与"十四五"规划建议相比，"十五五"规划建议将"建设现代化产业体系"摆在更加突出的位置，这背后有 何考量？遴选量子科技、生物制造等六大产业的底层逻辑是什么？新兴产业和未来产业未来10年新增规 模相当于再造一个中国高技术产业，意味着什么？人工智能（AI）出现8次，反映出怎样的导向？带着 这些关乎经济发展全局的关键问题，近日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）专访了第十四届 全国政协委 员、中国社科院经济研究所原所长黄群慧。 黄群慧深耕产业经济领域多年，身兼国家制造强国建设战略咨询委员会委员，国务院反垄断委员会专家 咨询组成员等职，并连续担任"十四五""十五五"国家发展规划专家委员会委员，对中国产业发展的底层 逻辑与现实路径有着深刻洞察。 在采访中，他强调指出，在推动人工智能技术发展同时，不容忽视其就业替代与收入极化效应，技术创 新的社会影响必须纳入考量范围。 谈建设现代化产业体系：置于首位具有三大意义 NBD：与"十四五"规划建议相比，"十五五"规划建议把"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根 基" ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, reflecting a strategic shift in China's economic development focus, particularly in response to current domestic and international challenges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The prioritization of "building a modern industrial system" signifies a shift towards strengthening the real economy, which is essential for sustainable growth and resilience against external shocks [4][7]. - The plan aims to transform traditional industries, which currently account for about 80% of the economy, into new growth drivers, potentially creating a market worth trillions [4][8]. - The integration of technological innovation with industrial development is crucial, as it ensures that breakthroughs in technology can be effectively applied within the industrial framework [3][8]. Group 2: Future Industries - The plan outlines six key future industries: quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, and sixth-generation mobile communications, chosen for their potential to drive economic growth and strategic importance [11][19]. - These industries are expected to contribute significantly to China's high-tech sector, with the goal of achieving a "doubling" of high-tech industries over the next decade [18][19]. - The selection of these industries considers their original innovation potential, market prospects, and alignment with national security needs [11][19]. Group 3: Policy and Investment Strategies - The government is advised to adopt a differentiated approach to funding and policy support for traditional, strategic emerging, and future industries, ensuring that resources are allocated effectively without neglecting any sector [9][10]. - The establishment of a guiding fund for future industries is recommended to attract private investment while managing risks associated with high uncertainty in these sectors [22][23]. - The focus on nurturing "unicorn" and "gazelle" companies is essential for fostering innovation and ensuring a dynamic ecosystem that supports both large enterprises and startups [24][23]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Social Impact - The plan highlights the importance of integrating social considerations into technological innovation, particularly regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and income distribution [31][37]. - A balanced approach is necessary to ensure that technological advancements do not exacerbate social inequalities, aligning with the broader goals of shared prosperity and sustainable development [37][38]. - The governance of artificial intelligence must evolve through interdisciplinary collaboration to address its societal implications effectively [38].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its future outlook, particularly in the context of the **15th Five-Year Plan**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **High-Quality Development Focus**: The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-quality development, balancing effective qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth, highlighting new productive forces, livelihood, and safety as key drivers for the next five years of economic development [1][3][4] 2. **Shift in Economic Strategy**: The future direction of China's economy is shifting from a single supply-side focus to a balanced approach addressing both supply and demand, with traditional industry upgrades and emerging industry growth occurring simultaneously [1][7] 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The concept of "investors" is highlighted, focusing on investments across the entire lifecycle of industries, with increased government spending in social employment, healthcare, and education to stimulate consumption potential [1][11] 4. **Economic Growth Expectations for 2026**: Five key highlights for 2026 include a potential easing of US-China tensions, strong export resilience, rising shares in emerging markets, increased innovation, and a focus on boosting domestic demand, with a GDP growth target of 5% [2][13][22] 5. **Emerging Industries**: The plan identifies several emerging industries such as low-altitude economy, embodied intelligence, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion, indicating a significant expansion of the strategic emerging industry framework [5] 6. **Risk Prevention Focus**: The focus of risk prevention has shifted from real estate and local government debt to external risks and domestic price pressures, with positive implications for anti-involution sectors and new infrastructure [8] 7. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: Four main investment themes are identified: inflow of funds, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrades, suggesting a positive outlook for the stock market [15][16] 8. **Bond Market Outlook**: A downward trend in government bond yields is anticipated due to a declining growth center and a sluggish real estate market, making government bonds a potentially attractive investment [18] 9. **Gold Market Dynamics**: Recent volatility in the gold market is attributed to supply-demand changes and geopolitical factors, with expectations of continued price support due to increased gold reserves by countries concerned about US debt risks [19] 10. **Commodity Market Outlook**: A bullish outlook is maintained for commodities, particularly gold and silver, with strategic and rare metals expected to enter an upward cycle, driven by high-quality and secure development needs [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on "reasonable quantitative growth" aims to maintain GDP growth between 4.6% and 5% to achieve medium-developed country status by 2030 and 2035 [6] - The importance of safety in ensuring stable development is highlighted, alongside the need for high-level openness and the construction of a unified domestic market [4][9] - The ongoing governance of involution-style competition is crucial for improving market conditions and ensuring sustainable economic growth [12]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of future industries driven by cutting-edge technologies, which are in the early stages of development and have significant strategic, leading, disruptive, and uncertain characteristics [1]. Government Initiatives - The Chinese government has issued multiple guiding documents to promote the development of future industries, focusing on six key areas: future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space, and future health [2]. - The 2024 and 2025 State Council work reports highlight the need to cultivate emerging and future industries, including quantum technology and life sciences, and to establish growth mechanisms for future industry investments [2]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the exploration of diverse technology routes and typical application scenarios to drive new economic growth points in various future industries [2]. Industry Developments Quantum Technology - Quantum technology integrates principles of quantum mechanics with various scientific fields, aiming to revolutionize information processing and transmission [5]. - Significant advancements include the development of the "Zuchongzhi III" superconducting quantum computing prototype, which set new global records in quantum computing capabilities [6]. - By 2025, China is expected to lead in quantum computing, transitioning from "catching up" to "leading" in the field [7]. Biomanufacturing - Biomanufacturing utilizes biological processes for material processing and conversion, with applications in pharmaceuticals, new materials, and renewable energy [8]. - China has become the largest exporter of key enzyme preparations and gene components, holding a 29% share of the global market [9]. - The industry is characterized by the integration of AI in research and production, accelerating innovation and improving production efficiency [10]. Hydrogen and Nuclear Fusion Energy - Hydrogen energy is recognized as a crucial component of global energy transition, with China being the largest hydrogen producer [11]. - Major projects include the world's largest green hydrogen base and advancements in nuclear fusion technology, with significant milestones achieved in plasma control and fusion energy development [12][13]. Brain-Computer Interfaces - Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) are emerging as transformative technologies, with successful trials and clinical applications in various fields [14][15]. - The development of both invasive and non-invasive BCIs is progressing rapidly, with applications in medical rehabilitation and research [18]. Embodied Intelligence - The embodied intelligence sector is witnessing rapid growth, particularly in robotics, with advancements in AI and sensor technologies [19][20]. - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for humanoid robots transitioning from prototypes to mass production, with applications in various industries [21]. Sixth Generation Mobile Communication - The sixth generation (6G) mobile communication technology is expected to enhance performance metrics significantly compared to 5G, with various breakthroughs achieved in key technologies [22][23]. - Standardization efforts for 6G are underway in China, with commercial deployment anticipated around 2030 [23][24].

Core Insights - The central viewpoint emphasizes the cultivation and expansion of emerging and future industries in China, with a target for the "three new" economy's contribution to GDP exceeding 18% by 2024 [1] Group 1: Emerging Industries - The proposal highlights the acceleration of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, aiming for large-scale development through innovation and technology [4] - China has maintained its position as the global leader in new energy vehicle production and sales for ten consecutive years, with solar and wind power equipment production ranking among the highest in the world [4] - Over 60 national advanced manufacturing clusters in emerging industries have been cultivated, along with the establishment of 23 national independent innovation demonstration zones [4] Group 2: Future Industries - The proposal advocates for the advancement of future industries including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications as new economic growth points [7] - The biomanufacturing industry in China has reached a scale of nearly 1 trillion yuan, with the embodied intelligence market expected to reach 5.295 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for approximately 27% of the global market [7] Group 3: Economic Impact - The cultivation and expansion of emerging and future industries are projected to generate a new scale equivalent to recreating China's high-tech industry over the next decade, providing continuous new momentum for high-quality economic development [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of achieving a moderate level of development for China by 2035, with a focus on enhancing GDP and fostering emerging industries to adapt to global economic changes [2][5][14]. Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The target is to exceed the threshold of $20,000 in per capita GDP by 2020 standards and to double the per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels [2]. - Achieving a moderate level of development is seen as crucial for China's economic strategy moving forward [2]. Group 2: Emerging Industries - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to develop new pillar industries such as renewable energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [5]. - There is a call for a focus on key areas like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication to drive future industrial growth [6]. Group 3: Regional Innovation Systems - The establishment of regional innovation systems is essential, involving collaboration among government, enterprises, universities, and research institutions to enhance innovation capabilities [9]. - A tailored approach based on local resources and industrial foundations is recommended to prevent market bubbles and ensure sustainable development [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment in physical assets (infrastructure, buildings, machinery) is crucial for solidifying the material and technical foundation for economic development [10]. - Investment in human capital (education, healthcare, skills training) is equally important for enhancing the capabilities and potential of the population [10]. Group 5: Digital Trade - Digital trade, characterized by data as a key production factor and digital services, is rapidly growing and is identified as a new trend in international trade and economic growth [12]. Group 6: Energy Strategy - Building an energy powerhouse is highlighted as a significant goal, with energy security being critical for national stability and development [13][14]. - The transition to green and low-carbon energy sources is emphasized as a timely and necessary step in the current global context [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of creating application scenarios to accelerate the commercialization of "black technology" and enhance new productive forces, ultimately supporting high-quality economic and social development [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Scenarios - Scenarios are likened to "experimental fields" for testing new technologies, which are essential for transforming "black technology" into new productive forces [1]. - The government aims to build various types of scenarios, including comprehensive major scenarios and high-value niche scenarios, to facilitate the rapid application of new technologies and products [1][2]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - Despite the potential of "black technology," large-scale commercial applications face challenges, such as the need for policy adjustments and technological upgrades [2]. - The approach of "testing in small areas" is suggested to address development issues, allowing for gradual exploration and problem-solving [2][3]. Group 3: Role of Government and Market - The government is tasked with expanding the supply of production, work, and living scenarios to encourage social capital investment and facilitate the transformation of technological achievements into productive forces [3]. - Opening up scenario resources is expected to stimulate market competition, enabling companies to benefit from technological advancements and efficiency improvements [3]. Group 4: Future Growth Areas - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests promoting emerging industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces as new economic growth points [3]. - Establishing typical application scenarios for these future industries, along with innovative regulatory approaches, is crucial for fostering the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and nurturing unicorn companies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing a modern industrial system focused on strengthening the real economy, with a commitment to intelligent, green, and integrated development, while maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing [3][5]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The focus is on consolidating and expanding the foundation of the real economy by prioritizing the development of the real economy [3]. - There is a commitment to maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and constructing a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [3]. Group 2: Traditional Industry Optimization - The article discusses the need to enhance traditional industries such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, light industry, textiles, machinery, shipping, and construction to improve their global competitiveness [5]. - An estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan is expected to be added over the next five years, releasing significant development momentum and benefits for people's livelihoods [5]. Group 3: Emerging Pillar Industries - There is a push to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [6]. - This initiative is expected to create several trillion-level markets or even larger scales [7]. Group 4: Future Industry Layout - The article highlights the importance of forward-looking layouts for future industries, promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [8]. - The anticipated scale of new high-tech industries over the next decade is comparable to recreating an entire high-tech industry in China [8].

Core Insights - The recent proposal by the Central Committee emphasizes the importance of a modern industrial system as the material and technological foundation for Chinese-style modernization, focusing on the real economy and aiming for intelligent, green, and integrated development [2][3] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The primary strategic task for the 15th Five-Year Plan has shifted from technological innovation to industrial system construction and real economy development, with technology now serving as a supporting role [2][3] - The dual motivations for this strategic shift include the transition of development stages and the evolution of competitive paradigms, highlighting the need for innovation to be rooted in the industrial context to enhance economic resilience and competitiveness [3] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Importance - The proposal underscores the critical role of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing in the economy, which is essential for strengthening the foundation of the real economy [3][4] - Historical data indicates that countries like Japan and Germany maintain a stable manufacturing value-added ratio of around 20% of GDP, which supports their international competitiveness [4] Group 3: Development Pathways - The construction of a modern industrial system should focus on four key areas: optimizing the manufacturing tier, promoting service industry development, solidifying infrastructure, and enhancing the market environment [5][6] - Specific actions include upgrading traditional industries, fostering new industries as core pillars, and innovating regulatory frameworks to support future industries [5][6] - The service sector is to be expanded and improved, integrating with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture to enhance overall economic efficiency [6]

Group 1: Key Directions of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is positioned as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, focusing on high-quality development and economic stability[1] - The plan emphasizes the importance of the real economy, with advanced manufacturing as the backbone, and aims to create a unified, open, competitive, and orderly market system[1] - The plan aims to enhance domestic circulation and promote consumption upgrades, with a focus on expanding the middle-income group[1] Group 2: Main Goals During the 15th Five-Year Plan - The primary goals include maintaining reasonable economic growth, steadily improving total factor productivity (TFP), and increasing the resident consumption rate[2] - The plan highlights the importance of common prosperity, technological self-reliance, and national security as key objectives[2] - The plan aims to achieve high-quality development by integrating digitalization, greening, and industrial innovation[2] Group 3: Focus on Domestic and International Circulation - Strengthening domestic circulation is crucial, with an emphasis on consumption upgrades and investment expansion[3] - The plan aims to eliminate barriers to the construction of a unified national market, facilitating smooth circulation of goods and factors across the country[3] - The plan emphasizes the need for effective investment, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than merely increasing investment volume[3] Group 4: Enhancing People's Livelihood and Common Prosperity - The plan aims to promote common prosperity by focusing on employment, income distribution, education, social security, and housing[4] - It emphasizes the need for equitable public services and improving the welfare of the population to enhance growth resilience[4] - The plan includes specific measures to support rural revitalization and agricultural modernization, ensuring food security and increasing farmers' income[4]