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农产品组行业研究报告:需求较为清淡,油料震荡偏弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 06:21
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating, but the strategies for both soybeans and peanuts are rated as "Neutral" [6][8] 2. Core Views - **Soybeans**: In the short - term, the price of domestic soybeans has resilience due to the supply gap, but the increase in imported soybeans (estimated 9.5 million tons in July) and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long - term, good weather in new - season soybean producing areas, stable yields, and a loose global supply pattern may lead to lower international prices and drag down domestic prices. The overall price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain range - bound, with policy factors such as provincial reserve auctions and CGSG rotation rhythms to be monitored [1][6][33] - **Peanuts**: In the short - term, the low inventory of old - crop peanuts and the lack of centralized release of cold - storage goods before mid - July support the price, but supply pressure is expected to build up in September. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the supply of new - season peanuts will be loose, and the support level may decline. However, there are uncertainties such as weather during the key growing period, the impact of imported peanuts, and the influence of soybean production on peanut prices [7][48] 3. Summary by Section Soybeans - **Half - year Market Review in 2025**: The domestic soybean market fluctuated greatly. Futures prices were affected by factors such as new - season supply, consumption seasons, provincial reserve auctions, and weather. For example, the futures price of the main contract 2505 dropped from 3,936 yuan/ton to 3,269 yuan/ton in January and then fluctuated throughout the first half of the year [10] - **Half - year Supply and Demand Analysis in 2025**: On the supply side, in 2024, the sown area and yield of soybeans decreased slightly. In 2025, the domestic soybean supply showed characteristics of decreasing domestic inventory and fluctuating imports. Policy support may increase the sown area in the future. On the demand side, the demand for pressing was strong first and then weak, while the edible demand was continuously weak. The inventory of domestic soybeans was low, and the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [18][27][30] - **Future Outlook**: The price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain range - bound, with short - term price support from the supply gap and long - term downward pressure from a loose global supply pattern and weak demand. Policy factors may strengthen the expectation of loose supply [33] Peanuts - **Half - year Market Review in 2025**: The peanut market also fluctuated. Futures prices were affected by factors such as supply and demand in the market, new - season sowing delays, and consumption. For example, the futures price of the main contract 2503 slightly dropped from 7,928 yuan/ton to 7,920 yuan/ton in January and then rose and fluctuated [36] - **Half - year Supply and Demand Analysis in 2025**: On the supply side, the domestic peanut production in 2024 was basically the same as that in 2023. In 2025, the sown area is expected to increase due to lower costs. The supply rhythm showed that the remaining grain decreased, and the import volume was at a low level in the first four months. On the demand side, the demand from oil mills was weak, and the edible demand was affected by consumption downgrade [38][43][45] - **Future Outlook**: In the short - term, the price has support, but supply pressure is expected in September. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather, the supply will be loose, and the support level may decline. There are also uncertainties in weather, imports, and the impact of soybean production [46][48]
油料产业风险管理日报-20250701
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 11:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound volatile trend. With the smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures market. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is gradually pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 soybean purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. The low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side also implies potential bullish factors. In terms of valuation, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - month futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1852 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.385 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in purchasing costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Q3 protein meal prices are constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal futures market has limited upward momentum. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There may be an inflection point after Q3, and the low inventory of feed mills is a potential bullish factor. The far - month price may have upward driving force due to limited downside of US soybeans and resilient Brazilian premiums [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - After China - US talks, there is strong cost - valuation support for the far - month contracts from the external market [5]. - Bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts is strong during the weather - related speculation period [5]. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - month contract prices from the cost end [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures, leading to weak performance of the 09 contract. Soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some areas are urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and adding rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness for downstream users. The market's reaction to the WTO's investigation of China - Canada tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market is expected to follow the soybean meal market and be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - Closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates are provided for various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB [9]. 3.7 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Spreads, prices, and daily changes are provided for different combinations of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as spot prices and basis for soybean meal and rapeseed meal [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - Import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits are provided for US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds [11].
花生采购增多,价格震荡上行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 06:01
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans, the domestic price had a decline - then - rise trend this week. The strong upward trend has eased, but due to the sharp rise in the futures market and positive news, the short - term bearish sentiment has quickly dissipated. With farmers' remaining grain almost exhausted in the Northeast, traders are the main holders, and their reluctance to sell at low prices supports the market price [4][13] - For peanuts, the domestic price fluctuated strongly this week. As of April 24, 2025, the average price of general - purpose peanuts was 8,280 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from last week. The trading atmosphere improved slightly, and the market was generally stable. Positive signals from oil mills boosted market confidence, and both sellers and buyers showed more positive attitudes, though buyers remained cautious [5][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis Price Quotes - Futures: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2507 this week was 4,238 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 151 yuan or 3.7% [11] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans in various regions decreased compared to last week. For example, in Bayan, it was A07 - 57, down 130 from last week [11] Supply and Demand - Arrival forecast: In April 2025, Brazilian soybeans arriving in China were estimated at 9.99 million tons, Argentine at 0 million tons, and US at 1.75 million tons, totaling 11.74 million tons. Market demand remained insufficient, and the remaining grain in the producing areas was estimated to be less than 10% [12] Future Outlook - The domestic price showed a decline - then - rise trend. The short - term bearish sentiment dissipated, and it was difficult for prices to continue falling. Traders' reluctance to sell supported the price [13] Peanut Market Analysis Price Quotes - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract this week was 8,268 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 262 yuan or 3.3% [14] - Spot: The spot basis in various regions decreased compared to last week. For example, in Nanyang, Henan, it was PK10 + 130, down 266 from last week [14] Supply and Demand - Inventory: As of April 24, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 151,700 tons, an increase of 531 tons from last week. The arrival volume at oil mills increased this week [15] - Market transaction: The arrival volume in the domestic market was small. Traders were cautious in purchasing due to the hot weather, and market demand was not obvious with average sales [15] Future Outlook - The domestic peanut price fluctuated strongly. The market was generally stable, and positive signals from oil mills boosted market confidence. Buyers' purchasing willingness increased slightly but remained cautious [16]