1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The MPOB report was released, and the market for edible oils fluctuated. The overall report met market expectations [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.82% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 8,098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or 0.20%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 9,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan or 0.45% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 60 yuan, a decrease of 26 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 292 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.51%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 754 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan [1] Market News Summary - Argentina: In January, the export volume of soybean oil decreased from 562,000 tons in December to 460,000 - 480,000 tons (502,000 tons in the same period last year), and the export volume of soybean meal decreased from 2.05 million tons to 1.95 - 2 million tons (2.22 million tons in the same period last year). The soybean processing volume decreased, and it will continue to decline in February. The export volume of sunflower oil tripled to 100,000 tons compared to the same period last year, the export volume of sunflower meal increased from 105,000 tons to 150,000 - 160,000 tons, and the export volume of sunflower seeds was close to 100,000 tons. It is expected to continue to grow in February. The sunflower seed processing usually increases seasonally from February to March and will reach its peak after the new processing facilities are put into operation in April. The national sunflower seed harvest is 25% complete, and the output is expected to reach a record of 6.2 - 6.6 million tons (5.5 million tons in 2025 and 4.5 million tons in 2024) [2] - France: The French Ministry of Agriculture slightly increased the sown area forecast for winter soft wheat and rapeseed in 2026. The sown area of winter soft wheat is expected to reach 4.59 million hectares, slightly higher than the initial forecast of 4.56 million hectares in December last year. The sown area of rapeseed is forecast to increase from 1.34 million hectares estimated in December last year to 1.37 million hectares, an 8% increase compared to 2025 and 11.6% higher than the five - year average [2] - Malaysia: In January, the export volume of palm oil was 1,484,267 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%; the inventory was 2,815,493 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72%; the output was 1,577,454 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.78%; the import was 32,316 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%. From February 1 - 10, according to AmSpec, the export volume of palm oil was 399,995 tons, a 14.25% decrease compared to the same period last month; according to ITS, it was 451,340 tons, a 10.5% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]

棕榈油月报 关注马棕油去库节奏 棕榈油仍有支撑 核心观点及策略 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国和伊朗地缘局势不确定较大，油价止跌上涨，对油 脂板块形成支撑。生柴政策方面。生柴政策方面，前期 预期2026年下半年开始实施B50政策，由于资金和技术等 因素的限制，印尼政府计划取消在2026年实施B50政策， 但相关研究工作仍在进行；印尼政府启动全国性专项整 治行动，旨在全面收回被非法采矿和油棕种植侵占的国 有林区，也影响棕榈油的生产。美国特朗普政府预计将 在3月初敲定2026年生物柴油政策，预计将把生物燃料掺 混义务量维持在52-56亿加仑，将放弃惩罚可再生燃料及 其原料进口的计划；美国发布的45Z拟议规则，维持税收 抵免范围在北美原料。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 ⚫ 各机构高频数据显示，1月马棕油产量环比减少，出口需 求持续改善，主要是印度1月棕榈油进口量大幅增加，外 媒报道印度1月进口 ...

中期看涨， 等待回调择机做多 油脂月报 2026/02/06 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：(1)据南马来西亚棕榈油公会（SPPOMMA）的数据显示，2026年1月1-31日，南马来西亚棕榈油产量环比减少13.08%，其中鲜果串 单产环比减少13.78%，出油率（OER）增长0.16%。（2）据船运调查机构ITS和AmSpec发布的数据显示，1月份马来西亚棕榈油出口量分别环 比增长14.9%和17.9%。（3）据市场前瞻预估，2026年1月马来西亚棕榈油产量为162万吨，环比前一个月减少21万吨，出口142万吨，环比前 一个月增加10万吨，库存为289万吨，环比前一个月减少16万吨。（4）美国财政部2月3日发布了生物燃料税收抵免的最新指导意见，此举受 到市场的欢迎，认为这为生物燃料生产商提供了更清晰的指引，公开听证会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US soybean oil increased significantly, while the price of Malaysian palm oil declined relatively. Affected by this, the price of domestic oils dropped significantly, with rapeseed oil experiencing the largest decline [6]. - The market anticipates that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decrease, ending the consecutive 10 - month growth trend due to seasonal production decline and increased exports [11]. - The new US 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule has boosted the market's optimistic expectations for the demand outlook of US soybean oil [6]. - Next week, the MPOB and USDA reports are due. The market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect palm oil production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern, while the domestic oil market is weaker and awaits the guidance of the two key reports [62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 1: Oil Market Analysis 3.1.1 Oil Market Review - This week, the US dollar and international crude oil prices dropped at the beginning of the week, putting pressure on US soybean oil. However, after the US Treasury issued the 45Z proposed rule, the price of US soybean oil soared, with two consecutive days of about 2% growth. On Thursday, international crude oil prices fell sharply, and US soybean oil oscillated at a high level [6]. - The price of Malaysian palm oil declined. At the beginning of the week, a collective plunge in commodities led to panic selling by long - position holders. Although supported by rising surrounding oils and the possible decline in January inventory, it still oscillated within a narrow lower range due to falling international crude oil prices and inventory pressure [6]. - Domestic oils dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of about 3%. Rapeseed oil led the decline due to increased supply pressure after the entry of Australian rapeseed into the crushing process. Subsequently, Dalian soybean oil and Dalian palm oil followed the downward trend. In the following days, the domestic oil market oscillated around the lowest point on Monday [6]. 3.1.2 Recent International Oil Information - In January, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 14.9% - 17.9%. The production in South Malaysia decreased by 13.08% month - on - month, and the estimated production in Malaysia decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons [10]. - Analysts expect the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January to drop to 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 5.2% from the end of December. The production in January is estimated to be 1.62 million tons, a 11.5% decrease from December, and exports are estimated to be 1.42 million tons, a 7.6% increase from December [11]. - Indonesia will ban the export of palm oil waste, aiming to ensure domestic demand and promote energy self - sufficiency [11]. - The US IRS issued the 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule, with a 60 - day public comment period and a hearing scheduled for May 28, 2026. The policy is applicable until December 31, 2029 [12]. - As of December 31, 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.179 billion pounds, a 0.7% increase from the end of November and a 29.2% increase from the end of December 2024, but lower than market expectations [13]. - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol - blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 but has to postpone the plan due to limited ethanol supply [13]. - From February 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 239,675 tons, a 1.87% decrease from the same period last month [13]. 3.1.3 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a 2.49% month - on - month decrease, and a 2.88% year - on - year decrease [29]. - Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0912 million tons, a weekly decrease of 5,100 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.61% year - on - year increase; the edible palm oil inventory was 639,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 32,600 tons, a 4.85% month - on - month decrease, and a 48.26% year - on - year increase; the rapeseed oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,300 tons, a 4.81% month - on - month decrease, and a 56.67% year - on - year decrease [29]. 3.1.4 Oil Basis Analysis - The report presents the basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and different contract months, showing the basis trends over time [34][37][41]. 3.1.5 Oil - to - Oil Futures Spread Relationship - This week, the overall oil price trend was soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded [46]. 3.1.6 Oil Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil and palm oil slightly declined, while the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil had limited fluctuations [49]. 3.2 Part 2: Future Market Outlook 3.2.1 Seasonal Analysis - The report presents the seasonal indices of domestic and international soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal, showing their price trends and seasonal characteristics throughout the year [54][56][59]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Level (Main Contracts)**: For soybean oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are intertwined; for palm oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bullish; for rapeseed oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all intertwined [61]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, geopolitical risks are high, and international crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. If the price of international crude oil stays above $60 per barrel, it will boost biodiesel production. The MPOB and USDA reports are due next week, and the market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern. Domestically, the oil market is weaker than the international market. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot sales have stagnated, and the futures market mainly follows the international oil market. Capital is leaving the market before the festival, and the market may find support at the lower end of the range, waiting for the guidance of the two key reports [62].

Group 1 - The national standard revision project for sesame oil (GB/T8233-2018) was successfully initiated in Qingdao, Shandong, laying a solid foundation for the revision process [1] - The new standard is expected to promote the sesame oil industry in China towards standardization, high-end development, and internationalization, benefiting consumers and enhancing the overall industry [1] Group 2 - A core working group of authoritative experts in the oil standardization field was formed, consisting of over 30 representatives from the National Grain Standardization Committee, research institutions, and key enterprises [3] - The meeting systematically deployed the revision work plan, focusing on technical directions, definitions and classifications of sesame oil, optimization of key indicators, and initial clarification of responsibilities and timelines for participating units [3] - The revision is considered a systematic project requiring close collaboration between industry, academia, and research to ensure scientific and forward-looking technical content while considering practical applications [3] Group 3 - Yihai Kerry (Qingdao) Grain and Oil Industrial Co., Ltd. hosted the meeting and has a solid industrial foundation and technical accumulation in the sesame oil and related oil processing fields [3] - The company’s main business includes peanut oil, sesame oil, flour, and deep processing of the peanut and sesame industry chain, with its "Hujihua" brand peanut oil becoming a significant market category [3] - The sesame oil production line is equipped with various processes, including machine-pressed and small-milled methods, to meet diverse consumer demands [3]

油脂日报 | 2026-02-06 节前油厂陆续停机，油脂价格稳定 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9042.00元/吨，环比变化-96元，幅度-1.05%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8104.00 元/吨，环比变化-36.00元，幅度-0.44%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9144.00元/吨，环比变化-99.00元，幅度-1.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9010.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.66%，现货基差P05-32.00，环比变化+36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8390.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%，现货基差Y05+286.00，环比变 化+6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9890.00元/吨，环比变化-100.00元，幅度-1.00%，现货基差OI05+746.00， 环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：根据调研全样本口径油厂情况来看，有16家油厂，在2026年1月之前就陆续停产，占比13%。 计划在2月9日（腊月二十二）至2月14日（腊月二十七）之间停产的油厂最多，占59%，其次是2月1日至8日（腊月 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global vegetable oil supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 fiscal year, but consumption growth is stronger, leading to a decrease in the inventory-to-consumption ratio, projected to drop to around 3% for the fourth consecutive year [2][3] - The demand for edible and industrial uses is the main driver, with biodiesel production accounting for over 25% of total vegetable oil consumption [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The U.S. is expected to introduce new policies that could significantly increase the mandatory blending volume of biodiesel, potentially raising the requirement from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to between 5.1 and 5.6 billion gallons, a 60% increase, which will substantially boost U.S. soybean oil demand [5][7] - Different countries use various types of vegetable oils for biodiesel production, leading to varied market responses. The U.S. primarily uses soybean oil, while Indonesia focuses on palm oil, and the EU utilizes multiple types [6][8] - Indonesia plans to maintain its B40 biodiesel blending policy due to insufficient subsidy levels, while potentially increasing export tariffs to support its biodiesel industry [1][8] Market Dynamics - Global palm oil production growth is slowing, while industrial demand continues to rise, leading to decreased export capacity. The new U.S. clean fuel policy is expected to further drive soybean demand, impacting the global supply landscape [9] - The international market is seeing price increases for soybean and canola due to U.S. clean fuel policies, while domestic prices in China are constrained by a large livestock sector and low-cost formulations [10] Price Trends and Impacts - India imports a significant amount of palm oil (8-9 million tons annually), and fluctuations in palm oil prices compared to soybean oil will influence its import decisions [11][12] - The expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory from 3.05 million tons in December 2025 to around 2.9 million tons in January 2026 is attributed to seasonal production cuts and drought conditions in Indonesia [14] Biodiesel Policy Implications - The global biodiesel policy in 2026 is likely to favor soybean oil, with Brazil expected to increase biodiesel production by 400,000 tons and the U.S. by 2 million tons, consuming all production increases [13] - The lack of a B50 policy in Indonesia may reduce demand but is expected to be offset by overall consumption increases, maintaining price support [17] Supply Chain Considerations - The supply chain for vegetable oils is highly concentrated, with 70% of soybean cultivation in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, and over 80% of palm oil produced in Malaysia and Indonesia [15] - The volatility of crude oil prices significantly impacts the energy attributes of vegetable oils, with around 25% of vegetable oil used for biodiesel production [16] Future Outlook - The current weather conditions in South America are favorable for soybean production, with Brazil's output expected to be between 176 million and 181 million tons, ensuring ample global supply [18] - The government's strategic release of stored soybeans has alleviated supply tightness, and with a large new soybean harvest expected, the likelihood of future shortages is low [19] - Despite high oilseed inventories, soybean oil prices may remain relatively strong in the short term due to overall supply dynamics [20]

Core Insights - The article highlights the evolution and significance of soybean oil futures in China over the past twenty years, emphasizing its role in price stabilization, risk management, and integration into the global pricing system [1][5][6] Group 1: Industry Transformation - Soybean oil futures have transformed from a survival necessity to a crucial tool for reshaping trade pricing logic within the industry [1][2] - Companies have shifted from passive price acceptance to proactive risk management, utilizing soybean oil futures for hedging and decision-making [2][3] - By 2025, it is projected that 52% of soybean oil futures positions will be held by industry clients, with over 90% of large soybean crushing enterprises employing these futures for hedging [3] Group 2: Pricing Mechanism Changes - The traditional "one price" model is being replaced by basis trading based on futures prices, enhancing pricing strategies across the industry [3][4] - The correlation between soybean oil and cottonseed oil prices has been noted, with a 95% alignment over three years, indicating the broader applicability of futures pricing [4] Group 3: Market Growth and International Integration - Daily trading volume of soybean oil futures has increased from 43,100 contracts in 2006 to 445,000 contracts by 2025, reflecting significant liquidity growth [5] - The inclusion of soybean oil futures in the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) trading scope marks a milestone in the internationalization of China's futures market [5][6] - The pricing of soybean oil exports is increasingly based on domestic futures prices, showcasing the integration of domestic and international markets [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The opening of soybean oil futures is seen as a critical step towards aligning China's market with global standards, enhancing the resilience and efficiency of the global oilseed industry [6] - The evolution of soybean oil futures is positioned as a key driver for high-quality development and increased international competitiveness in the industry [6]

更新时间： 北京时间2月3日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格偏强震荡，开盘报53.35美分/磅，现报53.71 美分/磅，涨幅0.88%，盘中最高触及53.94美分/磅，最低下探53.35美分/磅。 美豆油 53.45 53.45 52.61 53.11 -0.65% 【豆油市场消息速递】 2月2日，阿根廷豆油(3月船期)C&F价格1202美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调6美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(5 月船期)C&F价格1143美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调6美元/吨。 2月2日：全国一级豆油成交量23000吨，环比上个交易日增加48.39%。 2月2日，大商所豆油期货仓单26460手，环比上个交易日增加500手。 2月2日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 豆油期货行情回顾： ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 白旭宇 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，1月收盘棕榈油2605合约9240元/吨，环比上涨656元，涨幅7.64%；1月收盘豆油2605合约 8282元/吨，环比上涨420元，涨幅5.34%；1月收盘菜油2605合约9380元/吨，环比上涨293元，涨幅 3.22%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价格9170元/吨，环比上涨600元/吨，涨幅7.0%，现货基差P05- 70，环比下跌56元；天津地区一级豆油现货8510元/吨，环比上涨260，涨幅3.15%，现货基差 Y05+228，环比下跌160；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10160元/吨，环比上涨330元，涨幅3.36%，现货 基差OI05+780，环比上涨37。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，MP0B数据显示马来西亚12月毛棕榈油产量较前月减少5.46%至182.98万吨，高于市场预期。 SPPOMA：2026年1月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少15.28%，出油率环比上月同期增加 0.11%，产量环比上月同期减少14.81%。钢联数据统计截至1 ...