弱现实，强预期 油脂月报 2026/01/04 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 基本面评估 | 油脂基本面评估 | 估值 | | | 驱动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 利润及生柴价差 | 马来西亚/印尼棕榈油产量、 出口 | 其他植物油供需 | 中国、印度、马来、印尼库存 | | 数据 | P：05-58元/吨 Y：05+554元/吨 | 近月马棕到港成本 8932元/吨，棕榈油 | 马棕12月高频出口小幅增加， 减产较多；印尼10月去库，产 | 大豆：北美减种植面积，南美 正在生长 | 国内油脂库存较高，印度库存 同比略低，马来库存偏高，印 | | | OI：05+734元/吨 | 现货8590。生柴价差 中位。 | 量同比中性 | 菜籽：全球菜籽丰产 葵籽：全球葵籽小幅减产 ...

生意社01月04日讯 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 交易商品牌/产地交货地最新报价 大 豆油 分类:压榨成品 大豆 油 ;等级:一级 ; 山东博兴豆油市场山东博兴山东省/滨州市8260元/吨 山东日照豆油市场山东日照山东省/日照市8270元/吨 山东济南豆油市场山东济南山东省/济南市8270元/吨 山东龙口豆油市场山东龙口山东省/烟台市8260元/吨 山东青岛豆油市场山东青岛山东省8260元/吨 (文章来源：生意社) ...

2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，EPA原定11月公布的最终确定美国生物燃料义务量目前延期到26年一 季度，且分配比例不确定，后市政策提振作用存疑。 南华期货油脂产业周报 ——节前油脂宽幅震荡运行，等待产地驱动 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内油脂市场受制于高供应压力和疲弱需求，缺乏利好，核心驱动依然在产地外盘市场，当前油脂的核 心矛盾主要依然为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力和需求增长的博弈。马来方面库存处于六年半高位，虽然年底进入减产季有望改 善供应压力，但出口提振不足或拖慢去库脚步；印尼B50计划预计26年后半年开始执行，基本符合市场预 期，支撑棕榈油长期需求但短期利好不足，产地整体来看报价上行动力有限。 中国三大油脂周度合计库存季节性 source： 南华研究 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 100 150 200 中国三 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-30 油脂供应充足，盘面持续震荡 油脂观点 风险 政策变化 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8512.00元/吨，环比变化-56元，幅度-0.65%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7818.00 元/吨，环比变化-18.00元，幅度-0.23%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9040.00元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.59%，现货基差P05-22.00，环比变化+6.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8230.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y05+412.00，环比变 化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9740.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差OI05+700.00， 环比变化+46.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油（2月船期）C&F价格1140美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油（4月船 期）C&F价格1075美元/吨，与上个交 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 马棕1 2月前2 5日产量降幅扩大 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20251228 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，南美主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利已播大豆的生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，SPPOMA数据显示，马棕12月1-25日产量环比减少9.12%。ITS数据显示，马棕12月1- ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-26 油脂驱动乏力，盘面震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7824.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8981.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8500.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.24%，现货基差P05-42.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化-80.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI05+649.00，环比变化+49.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(2月船期)C&F价格1124美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调22美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4 月船期)C&F价格1058美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调29美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(1 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-25 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8488.00元/吨，环比变化+2元，幅度+0.02%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7764.00 元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8980.00元/吨，环比变化+133.00元，幅度+1.50%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.59%，现货基差P05-8.00，环比变化 +48.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8210.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y05+446.00， 环比变化+28.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9580.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+1.91%，现货基差 OI05+600.00，环比变化+47.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油产量预估减少7.44%， 其中马来半岛减少11.66%，沙巴减少2.12%，沙捞越减少0.75%，婆罗洲减少1.73%。加拿大菜籽(1月船期)C&F价 格505美元/吨， ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-24 产量预期走低，棕榈底部震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8486.00元/吨，环比变化+72元，幅度+0.86%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7772.00 元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8847.00元/吨，环比变化-17.00元，幅度-0.19%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8430.00元/吨，环比变化+150.00元，幅度+1.81%，现货基差P05-56.00，环比变化 +78.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.37%，现货基差Y05+418.00， 环比变化+30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9400.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差 OI05+553.00，环比变化+87.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，欧盟委员会周二公布的数据显示，截至12月21日，欧盟2025/26年度（7月开始） 的大豆进口量已达600万吨，同比下降14%。同期欧盟菜籽进口总量为172万吨，同比下降41%。欧盟豆粕进口量 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

门源油菜花海。资料图片 18岁的他在北山乡沙沟脑村的小作坊里，守着燃煤的铁锅翻炒菜籽，一天下来只能榨出几十斤油，满脸煤灰 不说，油价还得看收购商脸色。 改变，始于"十四五"的春风吹进门源油菜地。 产业升级的浪潮里，门源县以政策扶持、技术改造补贴为助力，推动油菜加工从小作坊向规模化转型，我也 在这时迎来了属于自己的黄金时代。靳正峰受聘来到香满金门源公司，成了现代油脂加工线上把控品质的"关 键先生"。当政府技改补贴引入的全自动高原冷榨生产线运抵厂区，我看着他围着这个"铁家伙"转了一圈又一 圈，回家时轻轻拍了拍陪伴自己20多年的老式榨机，满是不舍却又满怀期待。 如今，我们的生产车间明亮洁净，恒温恒湿。靳正峰不再需要赤膊挥汗，控制台成了他的新"战场"，可那双 辨火候的"火眼金睛"，仍是精密仪器无法替代的坚守。"如今大不一样喽！"靳正峰看着金灿灿的我汩汩流 出，语气里满是自豪，"用天然气，受热均匀，油质更纯、更亮。这门源油，总算能以它本来的金色面貌，走 向全国了。" 油香四溢。本报记者 刘程锦 摄 本报记者 刘程锦 我是一滴菜籽油，诞生于海北藏族自治州门源回族自治县的青海香满金门源粮油食品有限公司，身上藏着高 原的清风 ...