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宏观日报:4月物流业景气上升-20250508
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 03:09
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the sales of new energy vehicles increased. The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in April were 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative wholesale from January to April this year was estimated to be 4 million, a year - on - year increase of 42 [1]. - In the first quarter, under the support of a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, large - scale light industrial enterprises achieved an operating income of 5.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, and a profit of over 300 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [1]. - In April, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 51.1%. The overall demand for logistics services maintained an expansion trend, with a significant recovery in the western region. The fixed - asset investment completion index reached a three - year high, and both railway and waterway investments maintained rapid growth [1]. - During the "May Day" holiday, consumption demand was strong. The sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 15.2% year - on - year. Driven by the "trade - in" policy, the sales revenue of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 167.5% year - on - year, communication equipment increased by 118% year - on - year, and furniture increased by 1.7 times year - on - year [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices continued to fluctuate due to tariffs [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: The prices of copper, zinc, and nickel fluctuated due to tariffs [2]. - Building materials: The prices of cement and building materials continued to decline [2]. - Chemical industry: The prices of PTA and soda ash declined compared to the same period last week [2]. Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PTA recovered; the operating rate of PX declined recently; the operating rates of polyester and urea were at this year's high [2]. - Infrastructure: The operating rate of asphalt reached a three - year low [2]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were the same as the same period last year, at a three - year low [2]. - Services: The number of international flights increased, while the number of domestic flights decreased compared to the same period [2]. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery | 69.91 | 82.75 | 79.77 | 76.10 | 77.76 | 9.80 | | Mining | 37.70 | 48.62 | 46.09 | 46.92 | 47.91 | 26.10 | | Chemical Industry | 68.63 | 69.46 | 66.11 | 62.01 | 63.09 | 3.30 | | Steel | 45.28 | 58.70 | 55.06 | 55.91 | 55.99 | 17.10 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 49.62 | 57.51 | 54.99 | 57.70 | 58.77 | 30.20 | | Electronics | 59.65 | 79.88 | 71.75 | 70.84 | 77.65 | 51.60 | | Automobile | 65.91 | 77.15 | 48.35 | 51.29 | 51.29 | 2.50 | | Household Appliances | 46.53 | 54.97 | 47.18 | 51.64 | 53.02 | 17.80 | | Food and Beverage | 44.33 | 44.75 | 44.82 | 45.90 | 45.51 | 14.70 | | Textile and Apparel | 51.60 | 63.87 | 52.58 | 54.15 | 55.00 | 12.90 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 80.48 | 191.11 | 199.42 | 167.39 | 165.50 | 9.10 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 59.52 | 67.28 | 69.00 | 72.61 | 73.82 | 33.80 | | Public Utilities | 27.75 | 33.02 | 33.01 | 33.96 | 33.99 | 28.80 | | Transportation | 35.15 | 37.54 | 36.21 | 37.50 | 38.14 | 16.80 | | Real Estate | 417.18 | 333.93 | 158.87 | 126.02 | 125.70 | 8.70 | | Commerce and Trade | 51.18 | 53.14 | 49.64 | 51.14 | 51.36 | 15.20 | | Leisure Services | 70.79 | 103.17 | 111.30 | 124.07 | 127.15 | 100.00 | | Banking | 28.82 | 22.57 | 26.31 | 20.39 | 19.75 | 6.80 | | Non - banking Finance | 34.34 | 35.93 | 34.43 | 35.19 | 35.76 | 19.10 | | Comprehensive | 67.08 | 52.21 | 47.75 | 50.35 | 51.02 | 7.70 | | Building Materials | 38.98 | 47.52 | 45.49 | 46.85 | 47.38 | 25.60 | | Building Decoration | 47.99 | 57.41 | 54.00 | 55.04 | 56.84 | 19.00 | | Electrical Equipment | 60.42 | 85.96 | 82.28 | 80.41 | 83.45 | 48.10 | | Machinery and Equipment | 38.80 | 45.15 | 42.70 | 45.46 | 48.31 | 37.00 | | Computer | 72.69 | 73.92 | 64.40 | 62.63 | 62.98 | 2.00 | | Media | 229.75 | 46.00 | 46.89 | 46.31 | 46.41 | 4.60 | | Communication | 232.58 | 39.43 | 32.45 | 29.14 | 28.75 | 3.60 | [46] Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 2282.9 | 1.33% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 5/7 | 6.6 | 2.22% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 8584.0 | - 2.01% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 14124.3 | - 1.04% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 5/7 | 21.0 | 2.09% | | | | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 78520.0 | 0.46% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 22758.0 | - 1.85% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 19630.0 | 2.26% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 125683.3 | 0.52% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 16637.5 | - 1.41% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 3177.2 | 0.81% | | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 781.4 | - 0.23% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 3377.5 | 1.43% | | | | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 5/7 | 15.2 | 2.57% | | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 14578.3 | 0.76% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 833.0 | - 0.86% | | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 5/7 | 59.1 | 2.20% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 5/7 | 62.2 | - 1.79% | | | Energy | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 4282.0 | 0.23% | | | | Coal price: coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 788.0 | - 0.38% | | | | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 4552.8 | 1.38% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 7500.0 | - 0.88% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 1906.7 | 1.60% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 1462.5 | - 2.66% | | | | National cement price index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 144.9 | - 2.24% | | | Real Estate | Building materials composite index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 116.1 | - 0.96% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Point | 5/7 | 100.3 | 0.00% | | [47]
冲突升温,印度巴基斯坦接连公布贸易禁令
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-05-05 22:46
【环球时报报道 记者 苑基荣】"以眼还眼,以牙还牙",5日,多家国际媒体如此评论印度与巴基斯坦之间的相互贸易制裁。4日,巴基斯坦商务部 发布通知称,禁止通过陆运、海运和空运转运印度原产商品入境,并禁止第三国出口至印度的货物过境巴基斯坦。此前一日,巴基斯坦宣布禁止 悬挂印度国旗的船只使用其港口。而在这之前,印度对外贸易总局2日发布通知,宣布全面禁止源自或途经巴基斯坦的货物贸易,禁止巴基斯坦船 只进入印度港口。 4月22日,印控克什米尔地区发生的枪击事件导致至少26名游客死亡后,印巴关系陷入新一轮紧张。据《今日印度》此前报道,印政府指责此次袭 击与巴政府支持的恐怖组织有关,巴方对此予以否认。随后印度宣布了包括暂停执行两国1960年签订的《印度河用水条约》、关闭边境口岸、驱 逐巴方人员在内的多个针对巴基斯坦的打击措施。而巴基斯坦也宣布了对印度关闭领空、暂停与印度的一切贸易以及降级两国关系等反制措施。 巴基斯坦《黎明报》4日报道称,巴基斯坦方面表示,禁止悬挂印度国旗的船只停靠巴基斯坦港口是为了"维护海上主权、经济利益和国家安全"。 这一系列禁令对印巴经贸联系造成了冲击。事实上,近年来两国间贸易额已大幅萎缩。2019年 ...
美专家:关税冲击供应链 严重影响物流业
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-04-29 23:30
0:00 针对美国滥施关税,有不少美国专家认为这会对供应链带来冲击。更有美国物流业从业者表示,进口减少会对货运量以及物流岗位带来巨大影响。 美国消费者与商业新闻频道主持人 吉姆·克拉默:这些关税是政府强加的,会冲击供应链。 彭博新闻社财经专家布伦丹·默里认为,无论是沃尔玛、塔吉特这样的大型零售商还是小型公司,都难以承受145%的进口关税,这会直接导致订单量的锐减 甚至消失。 彭博新闻社财经专家 布伦丹·默里:沃尔玛、塔吉特这样的大型零售商,以及其他小型公司,都认为承担不起从中国进口商品加征的145%关税,这比他们可 以承担的两倍还要多。我们可以预见,几周之后,如果订单没了,美国的港口货物量将减少,美国的商品库存也会减少。(美国商贸)体系没法应对货物量 的大幅降低。 此外,有美国物流业从业者表示,进口活动的停止不仅会使货运业遭遇重创,对就业岗位也会带来巨大冲击。 美国"货运浪潮"公司首席执行官 克雷格·富勒:(关税)会带来非常非常严重的后果,很快会对美国国内经济带来冲击。在两到四周内,我们的货运业会遭 受重创,或许总的货运量会下降6%,因为我们进口活动停止了。美国全国范围内,有900万人从事物流业,所有这些岗位 ...