1、顽强收红，市场摆脱短期阴霾？ 今天，国内A股三大指数顽强收红，打破了此前连续回调的阴霾。前两天我们也在音频中替大家寻找定 力：连续几天的下挫更多属于短期资金行为——10月底众多重大利好同步兑现，部分资金选择"见好就 收"，引发技术性回撤，却并未动摇本轮"小牛市"的长线根基。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、顽强收红，市场摆脱短期阴霾？ 2、临近年尾，市场机会"新老接替" 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 从盘面看，今日指数翻红且成交额仍维持在2万亿元以上，显示大部分资金仍在场内寻找机会，"小牛 市"状态依旧概率更高。当前市场需要回答的不再是"牛市是否结束"，而是"下一个热点在哪里"。此前 以人工智能为代表的科技赛道风光无限，近期却深陷波动，需要继续"踩实"以消化前期泡沫，等待类似 2月DeepSeek那样的现象级产品再次提供向上催化。考虑到A/H股溢价三季度已处极端高位，同一标的 港股价格更低，港股科技板块波动或更小、走势或更稳，可适当关注。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述 ...

巴菲特连续第三年抛售股票，这位伯克希尔哈撒韦(BRK.A.N、BRK.B.N)的首席执行官正步入他在这家 庞大集团任期的最后阶段——一个由他亲手打造并经营逾六十年的商业帝国。 伯克希尔·哈撒韦于当地时间周六披露，截至9月30日的三个月内，公司再次出售了61亿美元的普通股。 随着多个行业股价大幅上涨，巴菲特似乎发现卖出股票的机会多于买入。在过去三年中，伯克希尔累计 出售了约1840亿美元的股票。 该集团的现金储备继续攀升并创下纪录，达到3820亿美元，这些资金来自涵盖保险、制造、公共事业及 北美最大铁路之一的多元业务。不过，这一数字尚未包括短期美国国债投资的应付费用，伯克希尔指出 本季度约为230亿美元。 伯克希尔已连续五个季度未进行任何股票回购，巴菲特选择继续观望。 自95岁的巴菲特宣布将在今年年底卸任首席执行官后，公司股价表现落后于标普500指数。明年1月，将 由现年62岁的加拿大籍高管格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）接任CEO，他此前负责伯克希尔的非保险业 务。 自巴菲特5月在奥马哈年度股东大会上宣布即将卸任以来，投资者一直密切关注接班进展。在此期间， 伯克希尔A类高投票权股票下跌约12%，而标普50 ...

周周芝道 - 四中全会和中美釜山会晤之后 20251102 摘要 美联储 10 月降息后，鲍威尔的鹰派通胀判断降低了 12 月再次降息的预 期，美债利率上升。尽管存在通胀粘性及关税不确定性，但美国需求疲 软，预计美联储仍可能重新评估通胀并继续降息。 四中全会后国内资本市场表现平淡，经济数据偏弱，财政政策保持克制。 出口增速虽强于预期，但环比动能或将减弱，短期内出台强政策的可能 性较小。关注 12 月中央经济工作会议对国内资产的影响。 中美釜山会晤标志着博弈进入科技和安全领域竞争，不再依赖显性限制， 而是通过竞赛式投入争夺产业主导权。两国将在科技投入上加大力度， 对全球资本市场产生深远影响。 中美关税战旨在重塑全球供应链，美国通过关税引导产能转移至第三方 国家，削弱中国生产垄断权。这轮关税博弈可视为三方共赢，美国、中 国和第三方国家均受益。 从 2025 年开始，中美关税纷争将逐步收敛，科技投入将成为全球资本 市场定价主线。铜等相关资产可能表现优异，受益于新一轮产业革命带 来的需求增长。关注科技投入对产业和资产价格的推动作用。 Q&A 四中全会和中美会晤对市场的影响如何？ 四中全会和中美会晤是近期市场关注的主要 ...

文/曹媛 赵轶 陈璐 1000万元，对中小微科技企业意味着什么？是让实验室里的创新技术挣脱"纸面"、走向产业化的"第一 桶金"，是补上生产线升级、原材料采购缺口的"及时雨"，更是缓解场地租金、员工工资压力的"定心 丸"…… 成立初期，纯钧新材料（深圳）有限公司便借助深圳建行联合深圳天使母基金创新的"天使贷"发放的 1000万元，补充了企业现金流；同样需要资金支持的深圳市源微创新实业有限公司，在深圳建行办理了 小微科技企业专属贷款产品"科技E贷"，获1000万元授信。 如今，纯钧新材料已成为国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业，在温控材料与液冷散热关键领域积极"补短 板""填空白"，自主研发出了服务器液冷、KW级芯片液冷、AI PC笔电散热等系列产品，已完成7轮股 权融资；源微创新深耕固态存储领域十余载，已从初创企业稳步成长为覆盖封装、测试、SMT全产业 链的综合性科技企业，凭借深厚的技术积累与完善的产业布局，跻身国家高新技术企业、深圳市专精特 新企业行列，并通过多项国际体系认证，产品远销全球20多个国家和地区。 国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业纯钧新材料（深圳）有限公司CNC车间。 这样的陪伴式成长并非个例。截至9月末， ...

降息前景再添迷雾 受美国政府持续停摆影响，本周经济数据发布再度受限。 从为数不多的指标看，由于对经济和劳动力市场前景的看法趋于悲观，美国咨商会的数据显示，其信心 指数从9月修正后的95.6降至94.6，为今年4月以来最低水平。未来6个月的预期指数降至71.5，为6月以 来最低。亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型对第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）的 "即时预测"值与上周持平， 仍为增长3.9%。 上周的最大焦点无疑是美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议 ——该会议向原本预期12月再次降 息的投资者释放了鹰派意外信号。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeff Schmid）在本次会议上投出反对票， 主张不进行降息；美联储主席鲍威尔则表示，对于12月会议应如何推进政策，委员们存在"强烈意见分 歧"。 多位地方联储主席在讲话中对降息持谨慎立场。例如，明年将成为轮值FOMC票委的达拉斯联邦储备银 行行长洛根（Lorie Logan）认为，本次降息是错误决策，因她并不确信通胀正朝着美联储2.0%的目标 回落。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，鲍威尔将本次 降息描述为又一次"风 ...

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings reports from the five major US tech giants highlight the significant impact of AI on their growth, indicating that AI has become a critical factor for survival in the tech industry [11][12]. Company Summaries Google - Google achieved a record Q3 revenue of $102.35 billion, with a net profit increase of 33% year-over-year [2][3]. - The cloud service revenue reached $15.157 billion, exceeding expectations, with a backlog of $155 billion in orders [2]. - Over 70% of cloud customers are utilizing its AI solutions, leading to a profit margin increase to 19% [3]. Microsoft - Microsoft's Q3 intelligent cloud revenue was $30.897 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, with Azure services growing at 39% [4]. - The company secured long-term contracts for Azure, amounting to several hundred billion dollars in future leasing fees [4][5]. - Capital expenditures surged to $34.9 billion, a 74.5% increase year-over-year, to expand computing capacity [5]. Apple - Apple's Q3 service revenue reached $28.75 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, driven by AI-enhanced features in the iPhone 17 series [6][7]. - The iPhone 17 series saw a 14% year-over-year sales increase in the US and China, with the ProMax version selling 1.5 times more than its predecessor [7]. - The integration of hardware, AI, and services has created a profitable closed-loop business model [7]. Amazon - Amazon's AWS revenue for Q3 was $33.01 billion, a 20.2% year-over-year increase, marking the fastest growth in 11 quarters [8]. - The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to deploy over 1 million self-developed Trainium2 chips [8][9]. - Despite significant infrastructure investments, Amazon reported an operating cash flow of $130.7 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase [9]. Meta - Meta's Q3 advertising revenue increased due to AI enhancements, with ad impressions up 14% and prices rising by 10% [10]. - The company is leveraging AI to revitalize its advertising business, with Reels ad revenue exceeding $50 billion [10]. - WhatsApp's business messaging service is projected to generate $12 billion in revenue by 2026 [10].

而这一数字的背后是公司的持续抛售。 过去三年，伯克希尔已累计净卖出约1840亿美元的股票，仅在第三季度就再度抛售了价值61亿美元的普通股。 "在巴菲特看来，目前的机会并不多" ，Edward Jones的分析师Jim Shanahan对此评论道。 95岁的巴菲特准备卸任交棒之际，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的现金储备正在创下新历史新高——近3820亿美元。 11月1日周六，这家集团公布的最新财报显示，截至三季度集团现金储备达到3817亿美元 （约27167亿元） ，比上一季度增加了376亿美元，相当于每天增加 4.2亿美元现金，每小时1700万美元现金。 伯克希尔的最新财报似乎向市场传递了一个信号： 在巴菲特眼中，当前市场的卖出机会可能远大于买入。 除了减持股票投资组合，伯克希尔在回购自家股票方面也保持了极大的克制。 自2024年第二季度以来，公司便再未进行过任何回购。 这家横跨保险、铁路和公用事业等领域的巨头正以前所未有的谨慎姿态，通过 持续抛售股票和暂停回购 ，积累了巨额"弹药"，为即将到来的"后巴菲特时代"留 下了巨大的想象空间和挑战。 卖出远大于买入 具体到伯克希尔·哈撒韦 的投资活动，在集团2832亿美元的股票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge of the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points is attributed to multiple positive factors, including macroeconomic policy support, improving economic fundamentals, and a more favorable external environment, indicating a "slow bull" market phase with numerous investment opportunities [2][4][5]. Market Analysis - The index's breakthrough is driven by sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, alongside a gradual recovery in investor confidence, particularly in technology and innovation sectors [4][5]. - The performance of the technology sector reflects the rise of new economic momentum, while traditional sectors like consumption and real estate are experiencing a lack of investor interest [2][4][10]. Investment Opportunities - Private equity firms emphasize the importance of identifying high-quality stocks with core competitiveness and improving industry conditions, particularly in technology sub-sectors such as AI, robotics, and energy storage, as well as high-end manufacturing and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][5][14]. - The market is expected to continue to present opportunities, especially in sectors that are likely to benefit from policy catalysts and performance realization [14][15]. Performance of Private Equity - Private equity firms have reported strong performance, with average returns of 27% for subjective long positions and 43% for quantitative strategies, indicating a favorable market environment [7][8]. - However, there is a notable divergence in performance among subjective long strategies, primarily due to rapid market shifts and concentration in a few hot sectors [8][10]. Sector Differentiation - The differentiation between "old economy" stocks (like consumption and real estate) and "new economy" stocks (like technology) is significant, with the latter showing higher valuations driven by industry trends rather than mere valuation metrics [10][11]. - The current low valuations of traditional blue-chip stocks are attributed to fundamental pressures and low expectations, suggesting potential for recovery as economic conditions improve [11][12]. Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to undergo a structural upward trend, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate clear growth potential and resilience against economic fluctuations [5][6][14]. - As the market approaches year-end, there may be opportunities for style rotation and sector shifts, particularly in response to seasonal factors and upcoming economic policy discussions [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", indicating an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - True sentiment investors and value investors need not worry about the recent style switch, but the market may be experiencing a phased balance of over - concentrated chips in sentiment stocks. This year, there has been a reversal between growth and value, and dynamic valuations should be emphasized over static ones [2][5] - After the market reached 4000 points, short - term indecision intensified. This week, market hotspots rotated rapidly, with technology and non - ferrous metals correcting significantly in the second half of the week, and the previously rebounding financial sector also adjusting. Meanwhile, AI applications, innovative drugs, liquor, and duty - free products started to rebound [2][5] - There were no real negatives this week, only positive news. The tariff negotiation results were better than in early September, but the market showed limited upward momentum. During the earnings super - week, the performances of tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon exceeded expectations, while META's was below expectations. Domestically, Zhongji Xuchuang basically met expectations, with revenue and profit increasing both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter in 25Q3, while New Fiberhome and Tianfu Communication slightly underperformed [2][5] - The current earnings season differs from the second quarter. In the second quarter, doubts about the necessity of AI capital investment were largely dispelled, while in the third quarter, the focus is on the progress of investment efficiency conversion, and the market is more sensitive to performance due to price levels [2][6] - Industries outside of technology rotate quickly, with only the power equipment and non - ferrous metals sectors having relatively high winning probabilities. The non - tech sectors that have seen supplementary gains in the past few weeks have changed weekly, with common characteristics of previous underperformance and limited rebound space. Non - ferrous metals benefit from global liquidity easing, and the power equipment industry benefits from anti - involution policies and a cyclical bottom [2][8] - This stock market bull run is not a traditional "liquidity - driven" one but a result of "reversal after extreme asset prices." From an institutional allocation perspective, stocks have an absolute cost - performance advantage over bonds. When assets are undervalued for a long time, it can create a trend - reversing force. During this period, sectors with performance certainty are priced extremely due to the established technology industry trend [2][11] - Short - term indecision does not conflict with long - term trends. From the perspective of trading structure and market chips, increased volatility in November may be normal. The long - term industry trend of technology remains intact, and short - term fluctuations can optimize the market chip structure and create room for next year [2][13] - While achieving structural balance, absolute position control is also crucial. Currently, considering trading structure, market expectations, and the absolute levels of stocks and bonds, bonds can be an effective hedge against stock risks. In the stock portfolio, when technology stocks become insensitive to positive news after a period of gains, positions in sectors weakly correlated with technology and previously underperforming should be increased, including finance, chemical industry in the pro - cyclical sector, and innovative drugs in the context of improved Sino - US relations [2][13] - It is recommended to use a balanced stock - bond allocation, control stock positions, and adopt a hedging industry portfolio to navigate the current indecision period and wait for the next offensive opportunity. If it is believed that this is not a "liquidity - driven" bull market, there is no need to worry about short - term self - balancing [2][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Style and Sentiment - Growth and value have reversed this year, and dynamic valuations are more important. The market is experiencing a phased balance of over - concentrated chips in sentiment stocks [2][5] - After the market reached 4000 points, short - term indecision was prominent, with rapid rotation of hotspots [2][5] Earnings Season Analysis - During the earnings super - week, the performances of major tech companies varied. The market is concerned about the profitability of Sino - US tech companies to verify the AI market bubble, and investment efficiency has become a key test [2][5] - This earnings season focuses more on the progress of investment efficiency conversion compared to the second quarter, and the market is more sensitive to performance [2][6] Industry Rotation - Industries outside of technology rotate rapidly, with non - ferrous metals and power equipment having relatively high winning probabilities. Other sectors that have seen supplementary gains previously were relatively underperforming with limited rebound space [2][8] Market Drivers - This bull market is driven by "reversal after extreme asset prices" rather than traditional liquidity. Stocks have an absolute cost - performance advantage over bonds, and the established technology industry trend has led to extreme pricing of sectors with performance certainty [2][11] Market Outlook and Strategy - Short - term fluctuations do not conflict with long - term trends. Volatility in November may be normal, and technology's long - term trend remains intact [2][13] - Balanced stock - bond allocation, position control, and hedging industry portfolios are recommended to navigate the current period [2][13][15]

在单边主义、保护主义抬头的当下，10月31日至11月1日，亚太经合组织(APEC)第三十二次领导人非正 式会议在韩国庆州举行。本次会议主题为"我们构筑的可持续明天——连接、创新、繁荣"。中国提出坚 守亚太经合组织促进经济增长、增进人民福祉的初衷。 官方数据显示，APEC以37%的全球人口占比，对世界经济增长的贡献率高达61%。APEC成员在全球经 济的占比，从1989年的57%提升到2024年的61%。横跨太平洋的APEC不仅成为世界经济增长的核心 区，也是经济增长潜力最大的经济合作组织。 APEC旨在促进亚太经济一体化。但是作为APEC成员的美国却缺席今年APEC领导人非正式会议，中国 也因此成为今年参会的APEC成员伙伴中的最大经济体，不仅如此，中国还将接棒成为2026年APEC的 轮值主席国。 中国促进世界共同发展繁荣 亚太地区乃至全球经济增长的重要引擎，中国始终在积极加强与各国的经济合作，促进各国共同发展共 同繁荣。 数据显示，2024年APEC对世界经济增长的贡献率高达61%，其中，中国连续多年对世界经济增长的贡 献率超过30%，中国对APEC经济增长的贡献率过半。 中国的货物贸易占到APEC对外贸 ...