在担任伯克希尔·哈撒韦首席执行官的最后一年，94岁的沃伦·巴菲特坚守了他六十年来的投资原则：在市场高位保持耐心。今年以来，他持续出售 股票，将现金储备推至历史新高。这位传奇投资者今日正式卸任，将公司交给继任者格雷格·阿贝尔。 在美股屡创新高、人工智能概念股暴涨的2025年，巴菲特选择了"卖股票，囤现金"。伯克希尔今年前九个月净卖出股票100亿美元，连续第三年成 为股票净卖家，现金储备飙升至3580亿美元的历史高点。 巴菲特留下的是一份载入金融史的记录：自其执掌以来，一笔100美元的初始投资已增长至约550万美元（以伯克希尔·哈撒韦A类股股价计），而 同期标普500指数带来的回报约为3.9万美元。其投资组合的表现约有67%的时间超过市场基准水平。 今年5月，沃伦·巴菲特在伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会上宣布，将于年底卸任公司首席执行官一职，由长期担任副董事长的格雷格·阿贝尔接任。 这一重大人事变动甚至令阿贝尔本人都感到意外。在11月发布的致股东信中，巴菲特以标志性的坦率表示，自己未来将"保持安静"，并再次表达 了对阿贝尔领导能力的充分信任。 在其任职的最后一年，巴菲特继续减持苹果股票，并以100亿美元现金收购了西 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 29, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped by 0.5%, IH by 0.41%, IC by 0.46%, and IM by 0.32% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 22,687 lots, IH by 11,586 lots, IC by 36,757 lots, and IM by 53,242 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 12,050 lots, IH by 5,602 lots, IC by 17,385 lots, and IM by 19,963 lots [2] - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 300 is 4,639.4, down 0.38%. The closing prices of IF2601, IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 are 4,630.8, 4,620.8, 4,610.2, and 4,567.4 respectively, with declines of 0.50%, 0.43%, 0.56%, and 0.47%. Their trading volumes decreased by 6,620, 289, 12,369, and 3,409 respectively, and their positions decreased by 3,726, increased by 261, decreased by 8,066, and decreased by 519 respectively [1] - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The closing price of SSE 50 is 3,034.6, down 0.35%. The closing prices of IH2601, IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 are 3,036, 3,036.8, 3,038, and 3,033.2 respectively, with declines of 0.41%, 0.36%, 0.48%, and 0.39%. Their trading volumes decreased by 2,169, 66, 7,117, and 2,234 respectively, and their positions decreased by 2,404, decreased by 110, decreased by 2,558, and decreased by 530 respectively [1] - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 500 is 7,430.6, down 0.38%. The closing prices of IC2601, IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 are 7,421.6, 7,379, 7,336.6, and 7,157.6 respectively, with declines of 0.46%, 0.51%, 0.67%, and 0.76%. Their trading volumes decreased by 10,673, increased by 763, decreased by 20,731, and decreased by 6,116 respectively, and their positions decreased by 6,224, increased by 1,008, decreased by 10,791, and decreased by 1,378 respectively [1] - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 1000 is 7,594.2, down 0.15%. The closing prices of IM2601, IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 are 7,572.2, 7,500.2, 7,439, and 7,206 respectively, with declines of 0.32%, 0.48%, 0.51%, and 0.59%. Their trading volumes decreased by 15,720, increased by 639, decreased by 29,817, and decreased by 8,344 respectively, and their positions decreased by 7,157, increased by 4,723, decreased by 12,285, and decreased by 975 respectively [1] 2. Top 20 Member Positions in Stock Index Futures - For IF2601, long positions decreased by 2,419, and short positions decreased by 2,639. For IF2602, long positions decreased by 9,611. For IF2603, long positions decreased by 6,158, and short positions decreased by 6,771. For IF2606, long positions decreased by 1,034, and short positions decreased by 742 [5] - For IH2601, long positions decreased by 1,714 with a net change of -4,414, and short positions decreased by 1,956 with a net change of -4,742. For IH2603, long positions decreased by 2,168, and short positions decreased by 2,270. For IH2606, long positions decreased by 532, and short positions decreased by 516 [5] - For IC2601, long positions decreased by 4,226, and short positions decreased by 5,047. For IC2603, long positions decreased by 7,318 with a net change of -13,116, and short positions decreased by 8,625 with a net change of -14,790. For IC2606, long positions decreased by 1,572 [5] - For IM2601, long positions decreased by 5,380 with a net change of -13,183, and short positions decreased by 6,072. For IM2602, long positions increased by 83, and short positions increased by 747 with a net change of -15,394. For IM2603, long positions decreased by 7,886, and short positions decreased by 10,069 [5] 3. Market Conditions - **Precious Metals Market**: On Monday, the spot silver price in the Asian market hit a record high of over $80 per ounce and approached $84, with a nearly 6% increase. However, the market then reversed sharply, and in the New York market, it dropped by over 11%. The decline in silver also dragged down other precious metals, with spot palladium dropping by 17%, spot platinum by 15%, and spot gold by over 5%. In the domestic market, platinum and palladium hit the daily limit down, and the Shanghai silver futures price dropped at the end of the session, erasing all the 10% intraday gains and further dropping by 8.74% at night. The Shanghai gold futures price closed down nearly 1% and further dropped by 4% at night. COMEX gold futures closed down 4.45% at $4,350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed down 7.2% at $71.64 per ounce [6] - **A - Share Market**: The A - share market showed a divergence between large and small - cap indices. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded nine consecutive positive days, while the ChiNext Index declined. The commercial aerospace and humanoid robot sectors performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.04% at 3,965.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.49%, the ChiNext Index down 0.66%, the Northbound 50 down 0.45%, the STAR 50 up 0.04%, the Wind All - A down 0.29%, the Wind A500 down 0.46%, and the CSI A500 down 0.48%. The total A - share trading volume was 2.16 trillion yuan, compared with 2.18 trillion yuan the previous day. The carbon fiber concept rose as Toray Industries announced a price increase for carbon fiber products. The brain - computer interface concept was active, the commercial aerospace concept remained strong, the humanoid robot concept continued to heat up, and the stablecoin index rose in the afternoon. The lithium - battery industrial chain adjusted significantly, and the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept declined [6] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hong Kong stock market rose first and then fell. The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.71% at 25,635.23 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.30% at 5,483.01 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.26% at 8,891.71 points. The market trading volume was HK$224.508 billion. Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, JD Health fell 3.42%, Cheung Kong Holdings fell 3.35%, BYD Co., Ltd. rose 3.74%, and Geely Automobile rose 3.43%. Among the Hang Seng Tech Index constituents, Horizon Robotics - W fell 3.20%, Midea Group fell 3.05%, NIO - SW rose 4.89%, and XPeng Motors - W rose 3.88% [7] - **US Stock Market**: The three major US stock indices closed down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51% to 48,461.93 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.35% to 6,905.74 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% to 23,474.35 points. Goldman Sachs Group and American Express fell by over 1%, leading the decline in the Dow. Profit - taking put pressure on AI - related stocks. The Wind US Tech Giants Index fell 0.6%, Tesla fell by over 3%, and NVIDIA fell by over 1%. Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with Dingdong Maicai falling by over 7% and Hecla Mining falling by nearly 7% [7] 4. Automobile Market - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, said that the growth of the auto market in 2026 is complex. The most important factor at the beginning of the year is the late Spring Festival, and this year, combined with the early implementation of national subsidies, the effect will be significant. It should achieve positive growth in January, but there will be more pressure in February [8]

2025年12月26日 09:04大盘指数"小阳碎步爬升"七连阳配合温和放量，强势但不亢奋。指数在收复均线交点3888与55日 均线3918之后运行稳定，涨停家数回升到八九十家的水位，赚钱效应扩散对场外资金有明显的吸引作 用。12月份的核心任务，是在21天节点进场后让利润奔跑，直到完成冲顶为止，并且在冲顶之后耐心准 备一年一度的春季行情。 09:09两市成交额温和放大，说明资金并未撤退，仍在以"边走边换手"的方式推进，站稳均线密集区和 趋势线密集区之后均线系统呈多头排列，上升通道保持完整，日线macd与kdj保持金叉，趋势良好就不 要乱想。 09:30盘面结构延续"主线恒强、支线轮动"的特征。科技硬件和有色金属轮流领涨，商业航天再度活 跃，无人机、无人驾驶、机器人、等方向活跃，资金聚焦较为明确；科技硬件涨的时候，有色金属相对 承压，属于前期上涨后的回吐与结构切换。 09:40在12月17日中午和12月18日上午科技硬件崛起的时候，天赢居建议跟随，但是在科技硬件已经大 涨两天之后，天赢居建议天友们关注有色金属钢铁，事实证明是正确的。12月25日下午的直播，天赢居 看到科技硬件大涨之后又提出了相同的观点，事实也再 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that Asian stocks are expected to perform robustly in 2025, driven by favorable policies, strong domestic demand, and AI-driven innovations [1] - The report anticipates a continued decline in the US dollar, which historically benefits Asian stocks, and a globally accommodative monetary policy environment that may lead investors to shift from the US market to more attractively valued Asian economies [1] - The outlook for 2026 is positive for Asian stocks due to improved earnings prospects, favorable liquidity conditions, and ongoing structural reforms, presenting attractive investment opportunities for global investors [1] Group 2 - The next phase of growth in Asia will be driven by the real-world application of AI, with accelerated adoption in healthcare, finance, manufacturing, and e-commerce expected to unlock more earnings and boost productivity [2] - Asia's competitive advantage lies in its vast data ecosystem, cost-effective talent pool, and government-supported digital strategies, which will facilitate scalable AI solutions [2] - The report emphasizes a preference for companies with clear monetization paths, proprietary technologies, and integration capabilities that can incorporate AI into their overall business deployment [2] Group 3 - In China, the report maintains an optimistic outlook supported by structural growth drivers and clear policy focus, with domestic consumption expected to contribute approximately 60% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights China's commitment to breakthroughs in core technologies and the development of advanced manufacturing and emerging industries, such as semiconductors and green energy, to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains [2] - The report notes that industry consolidation is alleviating overcapacity issues in manufacturing, allowing leading companies to achieve sustained growth through advanced technologies and resources [2] Group 4 - In India, despite a lag in stock market performance compared to Asia and global peers in 2025, a turning point is expected in 2026, supported by stable consumption and investment trends [3] - Recent government measures, including reductions in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and personal income tax, are anticipated to ease household tax burdens and stimulate consumption, particularly benefiting sectors like consumer goods [3] - South Korea and Taiwan are expected to benefit from the ongoing technology cycle, especially in high-frequency storage and semiconductors, with long-term capacity growth anticipated due to rising AI application demand [3] Group 5 - ASEAN markets present attractive investment opportunities, although political uncertainties in some countries should be noted [4] - Singapore is highlighted for its stable economic outlook, supported by favorable policies and abundant liquidity, while Malaysia continues to attract global semiconductor and tech hardware companies [4] - The Philippines is expected to benefit from urbanization, a young population, and remittances, contributing to a solid foundation for long-term economic growth [4] - Overall, despite short-term uncertainties, Asia's large domestic market and evolving innovation ecosystem reinforce sustainable growth, with structural drivers continuing to support resilience in the region [4]

美东时间周三，美股因圣诞节假期提前3小时收市。美股三大指数集体收涨，均录得日线5连涨，标普500指数、道指均创历史收盘新高，热 门中概股涨跌不一；黄金白银持续走弱， 钯金重挫。 截至收盘，道指涨0.6%报48731.16点，标普500指数涨0.32%报6932.05点，纳指涨0.22%报23613.31点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 48731.16 | 23613.31 | 6932.05 | | +288.75 +0.60% | +51.47 +0.22% +22.26 +0.32% | | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7633.83 | 25864.75 | 6980.00 | | -5.16 -0.07% | +52.50 +0.20% | +19.00 +0.27% | 大型科技股涨跌不一，科技七巨头指数小幅上涨，苹果上涨0.53%领先，英特尔下跌0.52%，英伟达跌0.32%。 现货钯金大跌超8% 国际贵金属期货涨跌不一，盘中金银短线下挫，收盘COMEX黄金期货跌幅收窄，收报4505.4美元/盎司 ...

2025年12月19日 09:10从8月28日涨满377天以及11月12日涨满89周之后，本来就有日线级别的洗盘，但下方支撑强劲， 所以"难大涨、也难大跌"的箱体震荡了几个月。昨日市场呈现"缩量分化、资金切换"的典型特征，后续 反弹能否升级为第三次冲顶，关键仍在于量能是否回到1.8万亿以上以及空间能否站上3888与3918。 09:20在34天或者55天洗盘周期未结束之前都只是反弹，当然，预期是21天节点或者34天节点有第三次 冲顶，但量能不足、主力未回流之前，不宜对指数的连续上攻抱过高预期。沪指本周跌破89日均线后回 踩3816前低区域，随后收回。 上方8/13/21日均线交点3888以及更上方55日均线与34日均线交点3918的压力还没有突破，整体仍处 于"上有抛压、下有支撑"的夹板结构中，多空对峙没有根本性改变。但12月19日中午有希望选择方向， 而且随着科技硬件的崛起，站上3888和3918的概率偏大一些 这意味着：指数每向上一小步，都会遇到层层叠加的抛压与均线干扰，但是站稳3888和3918就意味着突 破后升级冲顶。 10:1312月17日科技硬件启动大阳线之后，一天半的横盘震荡没有破位89日均线， ...

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the yen interest rate hike and the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan have alleviated liquidity risks, leading to a rebound in global stock markets and an increase in risk appetite [1] Market Performance - On Monday, both A-shares experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above the 60-day moving average and the Shenzhen Component Index showing a larger rebound, also closing above the 60-day moving average [1] - The trading volume exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery compared to the previous Friday, with market hotspots primarily in the technology hardware sector and upstream resource industries [1] Investment Focus - Domestic investors are focusing on the direction of domestic policy and the development of the technology industry, with a rotation rebound observed in the "big consumption" and high-tech sectors benefiting from expanded domestic demand policies [1] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance near the 60-day moving average and support above the six-month moving average [1]

本周末，上海万象城化身为热气腾腾的"巴蜀会客厅"。12月20日至21日，成都都市圈"天府好礼"特色产品展示展销活动在上海万象城热力启幕。 这场聚焦"蓉品出川"的特色展销盛会，集结了成都、德阳、眉山、资阳四市与甘孜州、阿坝州、凉山州的好物精华，汇聚科技时尚、绿色美味、 好玩精美的600余种爆品，以"组团亮相+沉浸体验"的形式，为上海市民带来兼具川味风情与文化底蕴的消费体验，更搭建起四川特色产品拓展长 三角市场的重要桥梁。 ▲现场 四市三州好物集结上海 "天府好礼"掀起消费热浪 在上海万象城东广场，琳琅满目的特色商品与热烈的消费氛围交织。现场展品全面覆盖四市三州核心特色，既有来自成都都市圈的匠心之作，也有源自甘阿 凉三州的高原珍品。 / 11 日 , 9 12 g 1870 e E es & S ro e 0000000000 B B OOLOD ( 觉 e P t chema 800 -); } -> : BA the state of the first of the first of the states of 元在4月 0.0 T CD I . . . . in t E 273 3 成都礼物 CHENG® ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising approximately 0.92%, driven by improved market sentiment and a significant net inflow of capital from the southbound trading [2][3] Company Overview - The company under review, Impression Da Hong Pao (2695.HK), is a state-owned cultural tourism service enterprise based in Wuyi Mountain, Fujian Province, with three main business segments: performance services, cultural tourism town operations, and tea hotel services [6] - The flagship performance, "Impression Da Hong Pao," has become a notable tourist attraction in Wuyi Mountain, with a new show, "Moonlight Wuyi," set to launch on April 17, 2025 [6] Financial Performance - The company's projected revenues for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 are RMB 143 million, RMB 137 million, and RMB 56 million respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 128%, a decline of 4.6%, and a recovery of 8.5% [7] - Gross profit margins are expected to be 57.8%, 54.6%, and 42.5% for the respective years, with net profits of RMB 47.5 million, RMB 42.81 million, and RMB 6.77 million, showing a staggering growth of 1927% in 2023 but a decline in subsequent years [7] Industry Status and Outlook - The Wuyi Mountain tourism market is projected to grow steadily, with total tourism expenditure in Fujian expected to reach RMB 835.1 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 13.3% over the past five years [8] - The cultural tourism performance market in China is expected to generate ticket revenue of RMB 16.4 billion in 2024, with "Impression Da Hong Pao" ranking among the top ten performances in the industry [8] Advantages and Opportunities - The company holds exclusive rights to perform "Impression Da Hong Pao" and has the capability to manage and operate various tourism-related projects in Wuyi Mountain, creating synergistic effects among its different business segments [9] Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - The company anticipates net fundraising of HKD 110 million, with approximately 23% allocated for upgrading the "Impression Da Hong Pao" performance, 28% for developing the Impression Jianzhou food theme street, and 20% for acquiring another quality cultural tourism project to reduce reliance on a single performance [12]

12月18日，摩根士丹利发表报告，将苹果的目标价由305美元上调至315美元，看好其在2026年具备可观 的成长机会，列入2026年科技硬件类股首选之一。 在人工智能与云端相关支出方面，该行认为，即便基础设施价格存在上行风险，苹果在云端需求上仍可 维持相对稳定。不过，随着存储器(RAM)成本大幅上扬，物料成本(BOM)压力恐成为产业共同挑战。该 行也指出，目前并未将人工智能视为苹果短期内的主要变现引擎。尽管相关布局方向正面，但尚未看到 明确的产品或服务营收爆发点。 产品动能方面，大摩看好iPhone 17周期的表现，指出该系列受惠于延长至五年的换机周期，加上核心 功能升级，以及电信商补贴与旧机换新方案改善，有助支撑销量表现。展望2027年，该行预期，苹果在 2026会计年度结束时，市面上仍将约有5.5亿台iPhone无法升级至 Apple Intelligence，随着新版Siri与第 三方大型语言模型支援逐步到位，后续升级需求可望延续。 本文源自：格隆汇 ...