周四(2月12日)，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.34%，标普500指数跌1.57%，纳指跌2.03%。 科技股集体下跌，思科领跌，股价重挫超13%，最新财报显示，内存价格持续飙升令思科业绩承压，季度毛利率低于预期。此外，苹果跌5%，脸书跌近 3%，特斯拉、亚马逊跌超2%，英伟达跌逾1%。 CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为7.8%，维持利率不变的概率为92.2%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率 25.3%，维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为49.9%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月12日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国"必须"与伊朗达成协议，否则局势将"非常严重"。此外，特朗普称以色列总理内塔尼亚 胡"没有说过"要求停止谈判，双方也"没有讨论过"这一问题。他强调，"我愿意和他们(伊朗)谈多久就谈多久"，如果无法达成协议，"将进入第二阶段"， 而第二阶段"对他们来说会非常艰难"。特朗普称，如果伊朗不达成协议，"将会是另一种局面"，并警告未来一个月内局势可能迅速发展。特朗普表示，与 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的会谈" ...

美国司法部反垄断事务负责人阿比盖尔·斯莱特周四辞职，此举引发外界对特朗普政府未来将如何处理 竞争政策的疑问。斯莱特在X上发布辞职声明，此前白宫已要求其辞职。去年12月特朗普提名斯莱特担 任该职务时，被广泛视为第二届特朗普政府将延续拜登团队采取的积极反垄断执法策略的信号。此次辞 职正值司法部内部围绕并购执法存在分歧之际。上月，尽管斯莱特及司法部反垄断律师建议对Compass 收购其最大竞争对手Anywhere Real Estate进行深入审查，司法部仍同意该交易完成。此前围绕Hewlett Packard Enterprise收购Juniper Networks的争议已导致司法部高层解雇了斯莱特的两名高级副手。反垄断 司还在审查Netflix与派拉蒙天舞围绕收购华纳兄弟探索的持续争夺。 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.47%, indicating a decline in tech stocks [1] - Zijin Mining rose over 2% after Citigroup raised its target price by over 30%, anticipating an increase in the company's dividend payout ratio [1] - CICC noted that the recent pullback in Hong Kong stocks was due to three pressures: hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, doubts about AI capital expenditure returns, and manufacturing PMI falling below expectations [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Caifu Securities emphasized that Hong Kong stock valuations are at historical lows, with the Hang Seng Index PE at only 12 times and the Hang Seng Tech PE at 25 times, attracting southbound capital for bottom-fishing [1] - Dongwu Securities warned that despite the accelerated inflow of southbound funds, overall trading volume in Hong Kong stocks has decreased, indicating a cautious market sentiment and high volatility risk in the short term [1] - Guangfa Securities predicted that Hong Kong stocks may experience a phase of upward movement around the Chinese New Year, with an 82% probability of the Hang Seng Index rising in the last three trading days before the holiday [1]

Group 1: Real Estate and Gold Promotion - A real estate project in Hangzhou offered a "buy a house, get gold" promotion two years ago, which has resulted in unexpected asset appreciation for homeowners as gold prices surged while property values declined [2] - The promotion included gifts of gold ranging from 700 grams to 1000 grams, with the value of the gold at the time estimated at approximately 45 million yuan, equating to an 18% discount on the property price [2] - As of now, the international gold price has increased by nearly 149%, raising the value of the 1000 grams of gold from about 45 million yuan to approximately 112 million yuan, while the property value has decreased from 250 million yuan to around 163 million yuan [2] Group 2: Gold as a Corporate Reward - Companies are increasingly rewarding employees with gold, as seen with Chasing Technology, which distributed 1 gram of gold to employees, highlighting a trend in corporate gifting [6][7] - The gaming industry has also adopted this trend, with companies like Mu Tong Technology giving out customized 5-gram gold bracelets and other rewards, reflecting a growing popularity of gold as a corporate incentive [6][9] - Other companies, such as Bo Ke City and MiHoYo, have also incorporated gold into their year-end rewards, with significant amounts being awarded to long-serving employees, indicating a shift towards gold as a preferred reward [13][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a correction due to three main pressures: hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve leading to concerns over liquidity tightening, skepticism regarding the return on AI capital expenditures affecting technology-heavy stocks, and a manufacturing PMI that fell below expectations indicating a weak fundamental outlook [1] Group 1 - The correction in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to a combination of factors including liquidity concerns from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [1] - There is skepticism in the market regarding the returns on capital expenditures in AI, which is putting pressure on technology-weighted stocks [1] - The manufacturing PMI has shown a decline below expectations, reflecting a weaker fundamental economic outlook [1] Group 2 - In the short term, the market may have overcorrected, suggesting potential for upward recovery [1] - In the medium term, the credit cycle is expected to limit the index's potential, with projections for the Hang Seng Index to range between 28,000 and 29,000 points [1] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with structural growth, particularly in essential retail, technology hardware, and new consumption [1]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,027, up 1.76% with a year-to-date increase of 5.45% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.34% to 5,417, but is down 1.78% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.41% to 4,123, with a year-to-date rise of 3.89% [4] - The Dow Jones Index reached a new high, closing at 50,135, up 0.04% year-to-date [4] Currency Trends - The Renminbi Index is at 98.340, up 0.36% over the last month and 1.44% over the last six months [2] - The Euro to USD exchange rate is at 1.187, increasing by 1.98% in one month and 2.17% in six months [2] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil is priced at $67.63 per barrel, up 7.71% in one month and 4.01% in six months [3] - Gold is priced at $5,022.91 per ounce, with an increase of 11.38% in one month and 50.27% in six months [3] - Silver has seen a significant rise of 117.60% over the last six months, currently priced at $81.85 per ounce [3] Company Financials - Hong Kong Telecom (06823) reported a 4% increase in EBITDA for the year ending December 31, 2025, with total revenue rising by 5% to HKD 36.553 billion [9] - The number of 5G plan users in Hong Kong Telecom's postpaid customer base exceeded 2 million, representing 60% of the total postpaid customers [10] - Local data service revenue grew by 6% to HKD 14.31 billion, contributing to a 3% increase in overall local telecom service revenue [10] Mortgage Insurance Trends - In January, new mortgage insurance applications in Hong Kong fell by 8.7% to 460 cases, the lowest since November 2018 [11] - The total amount of new mortgage insurance also decreased by 7.1% to HKD 2.36 billion [11] - The usage ratio of mortgage insurance has dropped to 12.1%, the lowest level since November 2019 [12] Economic Indicators - The New York Federal Reserve reported a decrease in one-year inflation expectations to 3.1% in January, down from 3.4% in December [13][14] - The Federal Reserve's outlook on the U.S. fiscal situation and economic growth remains optimistic, with expectations of a significant GDP growth boost due to tax policy changes [15]

Group 1 - UBS Global Wealth Management Strategy Team downgraded the rating of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector from "attractive" to "neutral" based on three core adjustments [1] - Uncertainty in the software industry is expected to persist as AI technology tools intensify competition against traditional software core businesses, making it difficult for investors to maintain stable confidence in long-term growth rates and profitability of software companies [1] - Capital expenditures by cloud service providers have reached unsustainable levels, with high investments increasingly reliant on external debt or equity financing, leading to a mismatch between investment scale and current revenue returns, which may suppress market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The combined investment of major cloud providers, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, in AI is projected to approach $700 billion by 2026, with Amazon's spending expected to reach $200 billion, potentially resulting in negative free cash flow for 2026 [1] - Valuations in the technology hardware sector are currently at a high range, reducing their attractiveness to investors [1] - UBS emphasizes that the rating adjustment does not reflect a negative outlook for the entire technology sector, as opportunities arising from AI development are still worth attention, extending beyond the technology sector [1]

核心要点 瑞银周二下调了对美国信息技术板块的展望，态度转为更谨慎，并警告称，市场对企业高额资本开支和 AI 带来的冲击反应 "分化"。 软件股此轮抛售，导火索是 AI 公司Anthropic发布了可处理专业工作流程的新型 AI 工具，而这类功能 正是许多传统软件公司的核心产品。 科技股周一出现反弹，投资者期待市场在回调后能延续上涨。标普 500 软件与服务指数（共 140 只成分 股）周一大涨约 3%。 瑞银指出："软件行业的不确定性可能持续存在"，同时软件企业的竞争也在加剧。 该行在报告中称，这让投资者很难 "对软件行业公司的增长率和盈利能力抱有坚定信心"。 Liontrust 资产管理公司全球股票主管马克・霍廷周二对 CNBC 表示： "目前 AI 创造的收入，与投入的资金规模完全不匹配。这让未来前景变得更加不确定、更难预测，而投 资者厌恶不确定性。" 瑞银还强调，云服务商的资本开支已达到不可持续水平，这可能成为悬在投资者头上的 "利空压力"， 尤其是相关支出越来越依赖 "外部发债或股权融资"。 霍廷还表示，"七大科技巨头"中多家公司的支出计划令人担忧。 Alphabet、微软、Meta、亚马逊这四大超算 ...

他们仍预期较长期来看，资本支出将保持较高水平。 他们指出，鉴于竞争加剧的风险，软件行业可能持续面临不确定性。 来源：环球市场播报 瑞银环球财富管理策略师将标普500信息技术板块评级从具有吸引力下调至中性，理由是业内超大规模 企业资本支出增速可能放缓。 Mark Haefele领导的团队指出，增速的放缓可能对"使能层"部分企业构成利空。 他们同时提及科技硬件估值已偏高。 不过，他们仍认为人工智能具有吸引力，认为"人工智能机遇不仅限于这一板块"。 ...

摩根士丹利策略师表示，由于人工智能的热潮支撑了强劲的销售前景，美国科技股还有进一步上涨的空 间。由Michael Wilson领导的团队表示，大型科技股的营收增长预期已达到"数十年来的最高水平"，而 近期市场波动后，其估值有所下降。与此同时，软件股的暴跌也为微软(MSFT.US)和财捷(INTU.US)等 一些股票创造了"极具吸引力的买入机会"。 Wilson在一份报告中写道："像上周那样的时期在重大投资周期中并不罕见。尽管如此，人工智能赋能 者行业的基本面依然强劲，我们认为人工智能采用者市场的价值仍然被低估了。" Wilson的观点或许能让那些开始质疑人工智能领域巨额投资回报的投资者感到安心。上周，纳斯达克 100指数遭遇了自去年12月以来最大的单周跌幅，那些被认为可能受到人工智能冲击的股票在Anthropic 新工具发布后纷纷下跌。 "七大科技巨头"指数目前的市盈率约为29倍，略低于五年平均水平。上周五有一些逢低买入者入场，但 市场走势表明这种情况可能只是暂时的，纳斯达克100指数期货周一下跌0.7%。 Wilson团队的分析显示，投资者尚未以更具结构性的方式加强对资本支出的约束。这位策略师表示，资 本支 ...