| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,800.00 | -24.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,500.00 | -76.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 562,439.00 | -3181.00↓ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 366,676.00 | +21723.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -26,604.00 | +759.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -11,364.00 | +6459.00↑ | | | SM5-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | 0.00 SF4-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -22.00 | -8.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 46,543.00 | +6843.00↑ SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,163.00 | -21.00↓ | | 现货市场 | 内蒙古锰硅 FeMn68Si18 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a broad increase, with nickel leading the gains, reaching a nearly two-week high, and lead rising for four consecutive days [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,239, up $139, a rise of 1.06% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,117, increasing by $12, reflecting a 0.39% gain [1] - Zinc was reported at $3,418, up $20, marking a 0.59% increase [1] - Lead reached $1,994.5, gaining $17, which is an increase of 0.86% [1] - Tin was reported at $50,065, up $835, showing a rise of 1.70% [1] - Nickel closed at $18,065, increasing by $515, a rise of 2.93% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 11 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 镍价走强 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡上行，持仓量小幅上升。宏观层面，美元指数日内 持续走弱，有色板块偏强运行。产业层面，SMM 报道，临近春节假 期，市场参与度持续下降，多数持货商及下游企业已逐步进入放假 状态，日内整体交投氛围较为清淡。临近春节假期，短期资金驱动 较弱。 沪铝 今日铝价震荡上行。宏观层面，美元指数日内持续走弱，有色板 块偏强运行。产业层面，临近春节，现货市场交投不活跃。技术 上，铝价振幅明显收窄，短期驱动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The LME metal futures showed mixed performance, with nickel experiencing a three-day rise while other metals fluctuated in price [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,100, down $85, a decrease of 0.64% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,105, down $25, a decline of 0.80% [1] - Zinc increased to $3,398, up $16, an increase of 0.47% [1] - Lead rose to $1,977.5, up $3, a rise of 0.15% [1] - Tin was reported at $49,230, down $585, a decrease of 1.17% [1] - Nickel closed at $17,550, up $140, an increase of 0.80% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the technical repair of tin, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a weak bullish view [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 384,180, with a daily increase of 6.61%, and the night - session closing price was 385,140, with a night - session increase of 4.18%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 49,815, with a daily increase of 5.64%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 279,733, a decrease of 26,759 from the previous day, and the position was 33,625, an increase of 1,447. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 502, a decrease of 52, and the position was 25,348, a decrease of 63 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,337, a decrease of 379 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 7,030, a decrease of 55. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 373,500, an increase of 17,200 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 372,600, an increase of 16,000. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was - 157, a decrease of 2. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract was 188,560, unchanged. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 15,600, an increase of 24,140 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 359,500, an increase of 17,200 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 363,500, an increase of 17,200. The price of 63A solder bar was 247,750, an increase of 10,500, and the price of 60A solder bar was 237,250, an increase of 10,500 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The decline of US Treasury bonds widened. - Memory prices soared by up to 90% compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. - Tesla's Tao Lin said that there is no specific date for FSD to be launched in China, and a local training center has been established. - Wang Yi will attend the first senior officials' meeting of APEC in 2026 [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a general increase, with tin leading the gains on the evening of February 10, as reported by Changjiang Nonferrous Network [1] Group 1: Price Movements - London copper closed at $13,185, up $125, a rise of 0.96% [1] - London aluminum closed at $3,130, up $20, a rise of 0.64% [1] - London zinc closed at $3,382, down $1, a decrease of 0.03% [1] - London lead closed at $1,974.5, up $9, a rise of 0.46% [1] - London tin closed at $49,815, up $2,660, a rise of 5.64% [1] - London nickel closed at $17,410, up $175, a rise of 1.02% [1]

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2026.2.9 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2026. 2.6 | 2026. 1. 30 | 周变动 | 周张跌幅 | | 2026.2.6 | 2026. 1. 30 | 周变动 | 周张跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2603 | 100100 | 103680 | -3280 | -3. 45% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 100350 | 104460 | -4110 | -3.93% | | ...

Group 1 - As of 20:30 Beijing time, New York gold futures increased by 1.13% [1] - New York silver futures rose by 3.78% [1] - New York copper futures saw a slight increase of 0.29% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices rebounded on February 6, 2023, ending a two-day decline, driven by increased buying interest due to lower prices and improved investor confidence [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On February 6, three-month copper futures closed at $12,994.00 per ton, up $91.00 or 0.71%, after earlier dropping 2.9% during the session [1]. - The price has fallen over 10% from the record high of $14,527.50 per ton reached on January 29, 2023 [1]. - Marex reported that the recent price drop has sparked buying interest, with support noted at the $12,500 per ton level [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Copper inventories in LME registered warehouses increased to 183,275 tons, the highest level since May 2025, due to more copper being delivered to warehouses in South Korea and New Orleans [3]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored copper inventories have risen for the ninth consecutive week, reaching 248,911 tons ahead of the Lunar New Year [3]. - COMEX copper inventories stood at 586,429 short tons, at record high levels [4]. Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum futures showed the strongest performance among base metals, rising 1.92% to $3,085.00 per ton [5]. - Three-month zinc increased by 1.32%, closing at $3,345.50 per ton, while three-month lead rose 0.23% to $1,960.00 per ton [7]. - Three-month nickel experienced a slight decline of 0.11%, closing at $17,090.00 per ton, and three-month tin increased by 0.56% to $46,718.00 per ton [7].

1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for stabilization [1] - Silver: Not recommended to participate [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Hold an empty position and wait and see [1] 2. Core Views - For precious metals, the recent sharp adjustment is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives, along with forced liquidations. However, the long - term support factors for gold remain stable [1][3]. - Copper is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, but long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][7]. - Zinc is facing weak demand and inventory accumulation in the short term, while long - term supply challenges may bring opportunities [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation and seasonal demand weakness [1][14]. - Nickel prices are relatively weak due to high inventory and weak consumption in the off - season [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are highly volatile, and it is advisable to hold an empty position due to regulatory and market risks [1][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets of gold and silver are in short - term adjustment. Gold prices on SHFE dropped by 3.15% and COMEX by 3.78%. Silver prices on SHFE dropped by 13.85% and COMEX by 19.84%. The gold - silver ratio has increased significantly [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The sharp drop in precious metals is a result of over - speculation in the short - term and forced liquidations. The long - term support factors for gold, such as central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty, remain intact. However, short - term market volatility needs to be digested [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold to stabilize, and avoid participating in silver in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of domestic gold around 1060 and silver around 19000, and continue to monitor the decline in volatility [1][4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai copper main contract dropped by 1.34%, LME copper by 1.42%, and COMEX copper by 3.48%. Trading volume increased by 18%, while open interest decreased by 5%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and copper concentrate processing fees have reached a new low. Domestic smelters plan to cut production, and refined copper supply is slowing. Although in the demand off - season, long - term demand from power, new energy, and other sectors is expected to support copper prices [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in copper cautiously in the short term, and keep a long - term perspective. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [99000, 103000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai zinc main contract dropped by 0.40%, and LME zinc by 0.21%. Trading volume decreased by 5.68%, and open interest decreased by 10.97%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with social inventories increasing [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. However, emerging industries may offset some of the decline in traditional demand [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce positions in the short term, control risks, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long term, consider buying on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of LME aluminum dropped by 1.21%, Shanghai aluminum main contract by 2.38%, and alumina main contract by 1.20%. Open interest in both aluminum and alumina decreased. Inventories increased, with SHFE aluminum inventory increasing by 10.01% and SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increasing by 2.33% [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but demand is in the off - season. Alumina prices are under pressure due to overseas bauxite prices and inventory issues [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The price of LME nickel dropped by 0.84%, Shanghai nickel main contract by 2.29%, and stainless steel main contract by 0.11%. Open interest in nickel increased slightly, while that in stainless steel decreased. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with SMM pure nickel social inventory increasing by 6.56% [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production in 2026, but the actual supply is uncertain. Domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season with weak demand and increasing inventory [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is [120000 - 145000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract LC2605 dropped by 9.81%, and trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of lithium carbonate and related products also declined, while the basis increased significantly [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic lithium salt plant production is declining, and supply is expected to be tight. Demand may pick up due to pre - holiday stocking and policy adjustments, but regulatory risks are high [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an empty position, with the range of [12500 - 140000] yuan/ton [22].