特朗普：将于15日在阿拉斯加州与普京会晤 据央视报道，当地时间8月8日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将与俄罗斯总统普京于8月15日在阿拉斯加州举行会晤，更多细节随 后公布。对此，俄方暂未回应确认。 外媒：印度暂停购买美国新武器和飞机 据路透社报道，三名印度官员称，印度已暂停采购美国新武器和飞机的计划，这是特朗普宣布对印度商品额外加征25%的关税后，印度首个表达不满的具 体迹象。 报道称，两位知情人士说，印度原本计划派国防部长在未来几周访问华盛顿，宣布部分采购计划，但这一行程已被取消。 特朗普当地时间8月6日签署行政令，以印度"直接或间接方式进口俄罗斯石油"为由，对印度输美产品额外征收25%的关税。这意味着美国对印度总体关税 税率将达到50%。根据白宫当天发布的公告，除一些例外情况，新的关税措施将在行政令公布21天后实施。 印度：加征关税"不公平、不公正、不合理" 根据特朗普7月31日签署的行政令，美国从8月7日开始对印度输美商品征收25%的关税。与8月6日公布的额外关税叠加后，印度输美商品将总体适用50% 的关税税率。 印度外交部6日发布声明重申，美国对印度加征关税等行为"不公平、不公正、 ...

每经AI快讯，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.28%，纳指涨0.35%，标普500指数涨0.32%。安德玛跌 超20%；加密货币概念股第九城市涨超4%，诺和诺德涨超3%。 ...

6月份，同业拆借加权平均利率1.87%，环比增加2个基点；质押式回购加权平均利率1.89%，环比增加7 个基点。 本报讯 （记者刘琪）7月29日，中国人民银行发布2024年6月份金融市场运行情况。从债券市场发行情 况来看，6月份，债券市场共发行各类债券70916.0亿元。国债发行12816.4亿元，地方政府债券发行 6714.4亿元，金融债券发行8334.7亿元，公司信用类债券发行12339.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行244.9 亿元，同业存单发行29843.4亿元。 截至6月末，债券市场托管余额165.0万亿元。其中,银行间市场托管余额144.4万亿元，交易所市场托管 余额20.6万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额30.9万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额42.3万亿元，金融债 券托管余额39.3万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额32.5万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.3万亿元， 同业存单托管余额17.5万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额793.5亿元。 从债券市场运行情况来看，6月份，银行间债券市场现券成交33.0万亿元，日均成交17359.0亿元，同比 增加34.8%，环比增加12.8%。单笔成交量在500万元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, aimed at supporting economic recovery and enhancing financial market stability [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - Establishment of an interbank market trading report database to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [1]. - Creation of a digital RMB international operation center to promote the internationalization of digital currency and financial market development [1]. - Establishment of a personal credit institution to provide diversified credit products for financial institutions, enhancing the social credit system [1]. - Launch of a comprehensive reform pilot for offshore trade finance services in the Shanghai Lingang New Area to support offshore trade development [2]. - Development of offshore bonds in the free trade zone to expand financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2]. - Optimization of free trade account functions to facilitate efficient capital flow between quality enterprises and foreign funds [2]. - Innovation in structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai, including pilot projects for blockchain letters of credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing [2]. - Collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading, enhancing the foreign exchange market product series [2]. Group 2: Global Financial Governance - The international monetary system is expected to evolve towards a structure with a few sovereign currencies coexisting and competing, requiring responsible fiscal discipline and financial regulation from sovereign currency countries [3]. - There is a growing global demand for improvements in the cross-border payment system, with emerging payment infrastructures and settlement methods driving efficiency and inclusivity [3]. - International financial organizations need to enhance their governance structures and economic supervision roles to better assess global risks and support economic globalization and multilateral trade [3][4].

未来外资配置人民币资产仍具有较稳定和可持续增长空间。目前境外投资者持有境内债券、股票的 市值占比约为3%-4%左右，受多重积极因素支撑，预计外资仍会逐步增配人民币资产。 首先，经济基本面稳健为外资投资中国创造了稳定宏观环境。随着扩内需政策效果显现，经济稳中 向好态势有望进一步巩固。近期，多家国际投行表示看好中国发展机遇，将中国资产评级由中性上调至 超配。 中新网7月22日电 国新办7月22日下午3时举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年上半年外汇收支数据情况。 会上，国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长贾宁表示，2025年以来，外资配置人民币资产总体较为稳 定。外资投资人民币债券规模上升，目前外资持有境内人民币债券存量超过6000亿美元，处于历史较高 水平。近期外资投资境内股票总体向好，上半年外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两 年总体净减持态势。尤其是五六月份，净增持规模增加至188亿美元，显示全球资本配置境内股市的意 愿增强。 第三，全球资产多元化配置需求为外资投资中国创造了良好发展机遇。近年来，国际金融市场波动 加大，投资者普遍认为，需要在全球开展更加多样化、分散化的资产配置。人民币币值稳定，人民币资 产 ...

国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.615 105.830 108.490 105.870 涨跌（%） 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.04% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.3503% 1.4809% 1.5600% 日度变化(BP) -12.00 1.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 | 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/08 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/08/07 | 4.251 | 4.546 | 3.295 | 2.629 | 3.422 | 3.200 | 0.237 | 3.279 | | 最新变化 | 0.022 | 0.021 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The seven - department joint guidance on financial support for new industrialization has made relevant beneficiary sectors perform strongly. Current stock index valuations are still supported. For example, although the P/E ratio of CSI 300 has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historical high (74.25% quantile). With Huijin shoring up liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. The strategy is to go long on stock indices opportunistically this week [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DROO1 closed at 1.31 with a - 0.03bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 0.73bp change, GC001 at 1.55 with a 24.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.00bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.56 with a - 0.10bp change, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year Treasury bond was at 1.37 with a 0.24bp change, 5 - year at 1.57 with a - 0.49bp change, 10 - year at 1.70 with a - 0.89bp change, and 10 - year US Treasury at 4.22 with a - 1.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 4492 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 2885 billion yuan. This week, 16632 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with maturities of 4958 billion, 4492 billion, 3090 billion, 2832 billion, and 1260 billion yuan from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, MLF a net injection of 1000 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 2300 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchases a net injection of 1880 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchases a net injection of 2000 billion yuan. There were no open - market Treasury bond transactions in July [4][5] 3.2 Stock Market - CSI 300 closed at 4103, up 0.8%; SSE 50 at 2791, up 0.77%; CSI 500 at 6303, up 0.66%; and CSI 1000 at 6787, up 0.71%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15961 billion yuan, an increase of 975 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with communication equipment, consumer electronics, plastic products, insurance, auto parts, banking, transportation equipment, and wind power equipment sectors leading the gains, while the traditional Chinese medicine sector led the losses [6] - IF volume was 80521, up 4.4%; IF open interest was 255640, up 0.4%. IH volume was 40737, up 5.8%; IH open interest was 92725, up 0.7%. IC volume was 72420, down 15.1%; IC open interest was 215144, down 0.8%. IM volume was 155305, down 17.9%; IM open interest was 329938, down 2.1% [6] 3.3 Futures Market (Stock Index Futures Basis) - IF basis for the current - month contract was 7.52%, 0.00% for the next - month contract, 0.01% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.25% for the next - quarter contract. IH basis for the current - month contract was 1.74%, - 0.08% for the next - month contract, - 0.20% for the current - quarter contract, and - 0.19% for the next - quarter contract. IC basis for the current - month contract was 21.91%. IM basis for the current - month contract was 17.79%, 12.61% for the next - month contract, 11.73% for the current - quarter contract, and 11.29% for the next - quarter contract [8]

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/06 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/08/05 | 4.212 | 4.515 | 3.284 | 2.622 | 3.425 | 3.201 | 0.272 | 3.269 | | 最新变化 | 0.018 | 0.007 | 0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | 0.002 | -0.005 | -0.004 | | 一周变化 | -0.109 | -0.117 | -0.079 | -0.085 | -0.092 | -0.086 | -0.075 | -0.093 | | 一月变化 | -0.189 | -0.117 | -0.080 | -0.064 | -0.111 | -0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that a new wealth cycle in the capital market may have begun, driven by recent disappointing U.S. employment data and its implications for the economy [2]. Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Market Reaction - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of market expectations, with previous employment figures revised down significantly by 90%, leading to a collapse in market confidence regarding the U.S. economy [3][6]. - Global stock markets experienced a collective plunge, with European markets dropping over 2% and the U.S. Dow Jones falling over 600 points [4][6]. - The downward revisions of employment data for June and May were drastic, with June's figures adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000 and May's from 125,000 to 19,000, indicating that only 10% of the reported data may be accurate [11][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Capital Flows - The article posits that the capital markets in East Asia (referred to as "东大") are increasingly decoupling from U.S. dollar assets, allowing them to react independently to U.S. economic news [19][24]. - Despite the global panic triggered by the U.S. employment data, East Asian markets saw a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 23 points and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 225 points [16][18]. - The article emphasizes that the East Asian capital market is preparing for a potential decoupling from U.S. policies, which could lead to a unique market trajectory [20][25]. Group 3: Future Projections and Federal Reserve Decisions - The sustainability of the current market rally in East Asia is contingent upon the Federal Reserve's decisions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [28][30]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged from 39% to 77%, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [38]. - If the Federal Reserve chooses not to cut rates in September, it could mark the end of the current rally, while a rate cut could trigger a substantial shift of capital from dollar assets to non-dollar assets, including precious metals and East Asian markets [33][35][46].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, investment, and consumption while enhancing macroeconomic policy effectiveness to achieve the annual development goals and the tasks outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Stability and Growth - Focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to strengthen domestic circulation and optimize external circulation, laying a solid foundation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - Implement policies to stimulate private investment and enhance consumption through high-quality infrastructure projects and new policies [3][6]. - Promote the development of new productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and the digital economy, to drive innovation [3][4]. Group 2: Green and Coordinated Development - Advance green and low-carbon development through comprehensive carbon emission controls [4][6]. - Implement regional and urban-rural coordinated development strategies, focusing on urban renewal and rural revitalization [4][6]. - Ensure the stability of key sectors such as employment, food security, and energy supply chains [4][6]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Utilize proactive fiscal policies to support consumption and expand domestic demand, while enhancing social welfare [14][15]. - Implement measures to improve the microeconomic cycle and support traditional and emerging industries [16][18]. - Maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support technological innovation and stabilize foreign trade [35][36]. Group 4: Employment and Social Security - Focus on expanding job opportunities in key sectors and encourage entrepreneurship, particularly in the digital and green economies [24][25]. - Enhance social security measures, including pension reforms and timely disbursement of social benefits [27][29]. - Promote skills training and support for various demographics, including youth and migrant workers [26][30]. Group 5: Financial Market Regulation - Strengthen market stability and enhance regulatory effectiveness to prevent risks in key areas of the capital market [40][43]. - Promote reforms to invigorate market activity and support long-term capital investment [41][42]. - Address risks associated with real estate financing and support the development of a new model for the real estate market [44][45].