1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and copper prices fell from high levels. The recent copper price trend was a typical market driven by macro - sentiment and transmitted through the precious metal market. The sentiment reversed in the second half of last week, likely due to Trump's nomination of "hawkish" Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed Chairman, leading to a stronger dollar and a sharp drop in copper prices. In the future, the copper market will present a complex pattern of short - term sentiment fluctuations and medium - to long - term fundamental support [4][58]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and aluminum prices also fell from high levels. Last week, aluminum prices first rose and then fell. The financial attribute of aluminum is relatively weaker than that of copper, resulting in less price fluctuation. High aluminum prices made downstream buyers generally wait - and - see, and the industrial support may increase as prices drop. Technically, the 24,000 level can be monitored [5][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - In the first half of the week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, benefiting the non - ferrous sector. The drop in the US dollar index and the sharp rise in gold reflected the intention of global asset allocation, i.e., "de - dollarization". In the second half of the week, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a stronger dollar, which first caused a sharp sell - off in the silver market and then affected the base metal market, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [9]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The copper price trend was affected by macro - sentiment. The market was initially optimistic due to the rise of precious metals, but sentiment reversed later, causing copper prices to fall [4]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 30, the copper ore port inventory was 523,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 46,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 187,000 tons [25]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 29, the Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory was 335,800 tons, a weekly increase of 600 tons; the COMEX + LME inventory was 751,200 tons, a weekly increase of 23,600 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Processing - According to SMM on January 29, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises from January 23 to January 29 was 69.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.9 percentage points [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices first rose and then fell. The main contract once reached the 26,000 level but then dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the commodity market and profit - taking [5][59]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On January 30, the bauxite port inventory was 2,419.07 million tons, a decrease of 309,300 tons from last week and an increase of 649,070 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [42]. 3.3.3 Low Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On January 29, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 501,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from last week [46]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Processing - Last week, aluminum prices rose, and the processing fees in most regions decreased significantly, reflecting the increasing wait - and - see sentiment of downstream buyers. On January 29, the aluminum rod inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from last week. High aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [52][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease this week, and the operating capacity remained stable [3]. - Demand side: The theoretical output of aluminum rods and aluminum plates decreased compared to last week, and the center of the spot aluminum price moved down. Industry profits narrowed, and social inventories accumulated as downstream enterprises went on holiday. Short - term fluctuations were large due to overseas macro - situations and macro - aspects, and the market was currently in a high - level shock [3]. -利多 factors: Clear policy restrictions on domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity and insufficient global supply elasticity; the inventory of the entire industrial chain was still low [4]. -利空 factors: Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises were still in the process of commissioning, and the theoretical operating capacity of the industry increased slightly; there was some production reduction in the downstream, and the procurement willingness of processing enterprises was low approaching the Spring Festival [4]. Alumina - Supply side: Some enterprises will end maintenance and resume normal production, while some are promoting the production reduction process. Overall, the alumina supply was still in surplus, and there were still fundamental negative factors [5]. - Demand side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a pattern of small - scale growth and overall stability in the short term, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. The spot price of alumina was stable this week, and the factory inventory continued to increase. There were still short - term supply disturbances, and the short - term price bottom might gradually emerge [5]. -利多 factors: Some enterprises were promoting production reduction, causing short - term supply disturbances; downstream demand remained high [6]. -利空 factors: The overall supply reduction was limited, and the supply was still in surplus; the growth rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum slowed down, suppressing the demand for alumina [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: The report shows the national monthly production seasonality, provincial monthly production, monthly import volume seasonality, and port inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite [21][22]. - **Alumina**: It includes the national weekly operating rate, provincial weekly operating rate, monthly import volume seasonality, import profit and loss, monthly production seasonality, and production in major producing areas [25][28][33]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly production seasonality, weekly production seasonality, monthly net import seasonality, and spot import profit and loss of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are presented [31][34][38]. Downstream Demand - **Product Output**: It shows the weekly production seasonality of aluminum rods, and the monthly production seasonality of aluminum profiles, aluminum rods, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [39]. - **Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rate seasonality of various aluminum products such as aluminum profiles, aluminum rods, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloys are provided [43][52]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume seasonality of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of Chinese aluminum products are presented [54][56]. - **Related Industries**: The cumulative year - on - year of housing start - up and completion area and fixed - asset investment completion, as well as the monthly values of automobile production, new energy vehicle production, power grid project investment, new 220 - kV and above line length, solar power project investment, and photovoltaic new - installed capacity are shown [57][59][62][66]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: The monthly inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite and its inventory seasonality in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi are presented [67][68]. - **Alumina**: The factory inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipt total seasonality of alumina enterprises are shown [69][70]. - **Aluminum**: The LME aluminum inventory seasonality, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity seasonality, Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality, and aluminum ingot + aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality are presented [70][73]. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of domestic bauxite, imported bauxite, 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas TTF, and European electricity prices are shown [75][76]. - **Cost and Profit of Aluminum Products**: The cost and profit of Chinese electrolytic aluminum are presented [76].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell by 4.75% to 103,190 yuan, while London copper dropped to around 13,050 USD [4][17] - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish due to Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, which has reduced interest rate cut expectations and led to a broader decline in the non-ferrous sector [5][17] - Global copper inventory increased to 1.031 million tons, with domestic copper slightly decreasing by 0.16 thousand tons to 332 thousand tons, while LME copper inventory rose by about 0.45 thousand tons to 175 thousand tons [5][17] - Despite short-term pressure on copper prices from market risk sentiment adjustments, strong supply constraints may limit further price declines, with a reference range for today's main copper futures set at 100,000 to 104,500 yuan per ton [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair has led to tightening liquidity expectations, causing the non-ferrous sector to give back gains [6][18] - Nickel ore shipments from the Philippines are hindered by weather conditions, while supply from Indonesian nickel laterite is also tight due to rainfall [6][18] - The market for nickel iron is showing average transaction performance, and stainless steel faces oversupply pressure with limited terminal demand [6][18] - The operational strategy suggests light short positions in nickel and stainless steel, with reference ranges for nickel at 130,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton and stainless steel at 13,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [6][18] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The alumina market showed a strong performance last week, with the May contract experiencing a reduction in positions [20][21] - A strike at a Chinese-funded mine in Guinea, which produces 15 million tons annually, has raised concerns about ore supply, although negotiations are ongoing [20][21] - The price of long-term contracts for ore has been reduced to 62 USD per ton, and domestic alumina production costs are expected to decrease significantly starting in March [20][21] - The operational strategy remains focused on short positions due to ongoing oversupply pressures in the alumina market, with reference ranges for the May contract set at 2,550 to 2,900 yuan per ton [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weakness last Friday, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, which is perceived as hawkish [23][24] - The processing fee for zinc is expected to see a slight increase in February, while supply is projected to decrease by over 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [23][24] - Zinc ingot inventories have been declining for two consecutive weeks, primarily due to reduced supply and slow arrivals [23][24] - The operational strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for zinc, with the main contract expected to trade within a range of 24,800 to 26,000 yuan per ton [23][24] Group 5: Lead Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinion on including recycled lead as a deliverable commodity, which may reduce delivery disruptions in the future [24] - The supply of primary lead remains tight, although some previously shut-down smelters are resuming operations, leading to a relatively loose spot supply [24] - The lead market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with the main contract projected to operate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton [24] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant pullback, with silver dropping over 20%, attributed to crowded long positions and panic selling triggered by Waller's nomination [27] - The market had seen four consecutive weeks of gains prior to the pullback, leading to a high concentration of long positions that were vulnerable to correction [27] - The operational strategy suggests reducing long positions in gold while remaining cautious with silver, platinum, and palladium [27] - Reference ranges for gold are set at 1,000 to 1,100 yuan per gram, silver at 19,000 to 25,000 yuan per kilogram, platinum at 520 to 570 yuan per gram, and palladium at 395 to 440 yuan per gram [27]

1月的商品市场明星非金银莫属。然而，在宏观变局与产业新旧动能共振的格局下，有色金属板块表现 同样可圈可点。随着贵金属市场经历巨震、波动渐趋平缓，投资者的目光开始寻找新的结构性机遇。其 中，铜与铝1月表现尤为活跃，两者走势呈现"你追我赶"的轮动格局。 1月，地缘政治不稳定因素推升了市场避险情绪。白银因海外供应紧张而飙涨，其剧烈波动显著干扰了 铜铝的运行节奏。1月末，随着凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席，贵金属市场遭遇重挫，并拖累铜铝 价格。 然而，这些外部干扰因素正在快速被市场消化。美联储1月议息会议维持利率不变，2月暂无议息安排， 市场焦点转向地缘政治等宏观事件。更重要的是，前期扰动市场的两大不确定性——美国对关键矿产的 关税政策方向与美联储主席人选已阶段性明朗。随着相关套利活动趋于停滞，预计白银价格对铜铝的干 扰将逐步减弱，铜铝的定价也将逐步回归自身供需面。 铜市场正面临数年未见的供应紧张格局。2026年铜精矿长单加工费（TC/RC）定为零美元／吨，印证了 矿端供应极度紧张的现实。尽管高位硫酸价格贴补了冶炼利润，但矿源紧张仍是贯穿全年的主题。与此 同时，国内外废铜供应因季节性与政策监管趋严而持续紧张，进一步 ...

攻坚克难，勇攀高峰，是科技工作者的常态。今年贵州省两会上，省人大代表，遵义铝业股份有限公司党委书记、董事长周锋在代表通道分享了企业"十年 磨一剑""攻克铝土矿脱硫技术难题"的故事。他的一句"最硬的骨头，啃下来往往是我们最核心的竞争力"，引发奋战在科研一线代表委员的共鸣。 周锋口中的"硬骨头"，是长期困扰铝产业发展的铝土矿硫、碳杂质问题。受地域成矿规律影响，贵州铝土矿硫、碳杂质含量偏高，且随着开采深度增加，杂 质处理难度剧增，如同"牛皮癣"一般棘手。 面对这一行业共性难题，遵义铝业历经十年攻关，最终研发出成套技术，将含硫量15%的"废矿"实现脱硫利用。 省政协委员、贵州航天风华实业有限公司总经理 张贤 省人大代表、省旱粮(高粱)研究所所长 张立异 "十四五"期间，贵州省综合科技创新水平同样实现跨越式突破，成功跻身全国第二梯队。2025年，贵州接连诞生多项具有全国乃至全球影响力的成果："中 国天眼"首次揭示快速射电暴双星起源关键证据；世界第一高桥花江峡谷大桥建成通车；全球首台商用超临界二氧化碳发电机组"超碳一号"顺利投运。 省政协委员、省科技厅基础研究与科研条件处处长黎玥介绍，"十四五"期间，全省综合科技创新指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus on the "Six Major Industrial Clusters" is central to Guizhou's economic strategy, emphasizing industrial chain investment, private sector revitalization, and the transition from industrial bases to interconnected industrial clusters [1] Group 1: Industrial Development Strategy - Guizhou's economic work prioritizes industrial development, project execution, investment attraction, and operational entity enhancement as its "number one project" [1] - The concept of "clusters" aims to shift industries from isolated operations to collaborative development, enhancing both quantity and quality [3] Group 2: Trade and Economic Transition - Guizhou aims to strengthen its export-import trade, which has been identified as a weakness, by establishing a foreign trade group to support the manufacturing and equipment sectors [3] - The goal is to transition from merely selling resources to offering finished products and brands, thereby creating a stable overseas market channel [3] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum industry is being developed as an integrated cluster, focusing on planning, resource management, smelting, processing, and technological advancements [5] - There is a need to enhance the supply chain for raw materials through improved exploration, extraction, and transportation systems [5] - Opportunities exist in high-end applications such as 3C product components and lightweight materials for aerospace, aiming for high-end, intelligent, and green development [5] Group 4: Low-altitude Economy Development - The development of the low-altitude economy is seen as a multi-industry integration opportunity, leveraging existing capabilities in aviation equipment manufacturing [7] - Guizhou has established a foundation in aviation engine research and high-end aluminum 3D printing, which can seamlessly integrate into low-altitude economic manufacturing [7] - The synergy between different industries allows for shared resources and complementary advantages, enhancing overall industrial growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Bank plays a crucial role in supporting the local economy by providing tailored financial services to various industries, enhancing the vitality of the county economy through innovative financial solutions and community engagement [1][2][3][5][8]. Group 1: Financial Support for Agriculture - Guizhou Bank implements a "one county, one industry" strategy, offering comprehensive financial services that boost local agricultural production, such as edible mushrooms and blueberries, leading to significant income increases for farmers [2][3][4]. - The bank's financial assistance has enabled companies like Guizhou Guiwang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. to expand production, resulting in an annual output value of 1 billion yuan and supporting over 200 local farmers with an average annual income increase of over 30,000 yuan [2][3]. - The blueberry industry in Majiang County has generated over 800 million yuan in annual output value, benefiting more than 30,000 residents through stable income opportunities [3]. Group 2: Industrial Upgrading and Support - Guizhou Bank focuses on financing new industrial projects, such as the aluminum deep processing industry in Qingzhen City, providing essential funding to support local economic transformation [5][6][7]. - The bank has facilitated the construction of the Wangzhuang aluminum processing industrial park, which has become a key driver for the local economy, with significant investments in infrastructure and technology [6][7]. - Financial support for companies like Guizhou Jifang Technology has enabled them to overcome cash flow challenges, leading to increased production capacity and market competitiveness [6][7]. Group 3: Infrastructure Development - Guizhou Bank has invested nearly 14.4 billion yuan in rural road construction, supporting over 41,000 projects and enhancing connectivity for local communities [11][12]. - The bank's innovative funding mechanisms ensure that financial resources are allocated efficiently to infrastructure projects, significantly improving transportation and logistics for rural economies [12]. - Improved rural roads have facilitated the movement of agricultural products, contributing to the economic development of various regions and enhancing the livelihoods of local farmers [12][13]. Group 4: Financial Innovation and Product Development - Guizhou Bank continuously develops innovative financial products, such as "Shuangnong Chengyi Loan" and "Shuangrong Chain," to meet the diverse needs of local industries and farmers [9][10]. - The bank's 24/7 asset management data platform and proprietary risk control indicators enhance the efficiency and security of its financial services, ensuring that support aligns with industry demands [10]. - The bank's commitment to providing tailored financial solutions has resulted in substantial economic benefits for local communities, transforming financial services into a vital resource for growth [10][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the macro environment improving, copper prices may maintain a high - level and strong - running trend. Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the improvement in the Greenland incident has boosted short - term market risk appetite. The continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, when copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark last week, the restocking willingness of some downstream industries increased, and the inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper slowed down. However, as copper prices rebounded, the basis and monthly spread weakened again, and it is expected that the restocking willingness will decline again. Copper prices may maintain a high - level oscillation and wait for industrial follow - up [5]. - Aluminum: With the macro environment improving, aluminum prices may maintain an oscillating trend. Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector. The decline of the US dollar index and the sharp rise of gold largely reflect the intention of global asset allocation, that is, "de - dollarization" [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector [5]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 23, the second - phase project of Tibet Julong Copper Industry was completed and put into operation. The second - phase expansion project was approved, and it is planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025. After reaching full production, the annual ore mining and processing volume will exceed 100 million tons, and the annual copper production will reach 300,000 - 350,000 tons. SMM expects the copper production of Julong Copper Industry to be 165,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026. Last week, the copper ore port inventory increased slightly, and the TC processing fee decreased slightly [24][26]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 335,200 tons, a weekly increase of 7,700 tons; the inventory of COMEX + LME was 727,600 tons, a weekly increase of 47,800 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the inventory accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Industry - On January 23, SMM reported that the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry rebounded by 10.51 percentage points to 67.98% week - on - week. Driven by the Spring Festival stockpiling and the decline of copper prices, downstream orders recovered, leading to the reduction of finished product inventory, and enterprises accelerated production to meet the demand. Looking forward to next week, the stockpiling demand will continue, and SMM expects the operating rate to further increase by 3.23 percentage points to 71.2% [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited [6]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 392,400 tons compared with last week and an increase of 7.17 million tons compared with the same period in 2025 [44]. 3.3.3 Low - level Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 768,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 514,700 tons, an increase of 18,300 tons compared with last week [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Industry - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated around the 24,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of downstream industries increased, and the processing fees of aluminum rods in some areas increased slightly. On January 22, the aluminum rod inventory was 123,300 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with last week. The aluminum rod inventory is about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, but high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [54][57]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline, indicating a strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. The decline of copper prices was mainly due to the cooling of the macro environment, and the non - ferrous sector and even the commodity market declined. The willingness of short - term funds to close positions continued to increase. In the macro aspect, the overseas US dollar index continued to rebound, and the margin ratio of margin trading in China was raised, increasing the market regulation expectation. In the industrial aspect, the monthly spread of nearby contracts weakened significantly, electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream industries were in a wait - and - see mood. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of some industries increased, which may provide some support for copper prices. The long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [60].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Naixuan (Z0023138) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease occurred this week, and the operating capacity remained stable [3]. - Demand side: The theoretical output of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets decreased compared to last week, and the center of the spot aluminum price moved down. Industry profits narrowed, and social inventories may accumulate as downstream enterprises take holidays [3]. - Market situation: Overseas macro - situation and macro factors may continue to support the aluminum price, and the market is currently showing a high - level and strong oscillation [3]. Alumina - Supply side: There were more alumina overhauls this week, and suppliers' sentiment to hold up prices increased. However, the overall alumina supply was still in surplus, and fundamental negative factors remained [4]. - Demand side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a pattern of slight growth and overall stability in the short term, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. The spot trading atmosphere of alumina was okay this week, but the factory inventory continued to increase [4]. - Market situation: There are still short - term supply disturbances, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Grouped by Content Categories 1. Market Data - **Aluminum Futures and Spot**: Include data such as the closing price and trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum futures main contracts, LME aluminum closing price and position, A00 aluminum spot average price and premium - discount average, etc. [5][6][11][12] - **Alumina Futures and Spot**: Include the closing price and trading volume of alumina futures main contracts, alumina spot price in different regions, alumina price differences, and basis [16][17][19] 2. Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: China's bauxite national monthly output, import volume, and port inventory have seasonal characteristics, and the monthly output varies by province [21][22] - **Alumina**: China's alumina monthly output, import volume, and national and provincial weekly operating rates are presented seasonally. There are also data on alumina import profit and loss [24][26][27][29] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: China and global electrolytic aluminum monthly output, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly output, net import volume, and import profit and loss are shown seasonally [31][32][33][40] 3. Downstream Demand - **Aluminum Products Output**: The output of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots has seasonal characteristics [41] - **Industry Operating Rates**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum - related industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and strips, and aluminum foils are presented seasonally [42][44][50] - **Export Data**: The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of aluminum products are shown seasonally [52][54] - **Related Industries**: Data on real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), and power (grid and power - source project investment, photovoltaic new - installed capacity) are provided [55][58][60][63][66] 4. Inventory - **Bauxite Inventory**: China's bauxite monthly inventory and inventory in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi have seasonal characteristics [67][69] - **Alumina Inventory**: Alumina enterprise factory inventory, inventory days, SHFE alumina warehouse receipt volume have seasonal patterns [70][71] - **Aluminum Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory, inventory days, aluminum rod and ingot + rod spot inventory have seasonal characteristics [71][72][73] 5. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: Include domestic and imported bauxite prices, 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda prices, pre - baked anode prices, power coal prices, Dutch natural gas prices, and European electricity prices [75][76] - **Cost and Profit of Products**: The cost and profit of alumina and electrolytic aluminum are presented [75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]