Core Viewpoint - The domestic sulfur market has seen a significant price increase, with prices surpassing 4000 yuan per ton, marking a 17% month-on-month increase and over 160% year-on-year increase, reaching a ten-year high [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary driver of the recent price surge in the domestic sulfur market is the tightening of international supply, increased downstream demand, and market sentiment [1] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to a significant decrease in sulfur exports from Russia and Kazakhstan, contributing to the price increase [2] - The export volume of Russian sulfur has dropped from around 2 million tons pre-conflict to an estimated 200,000 tons in 2025 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] Group 2: Demand Factors - The rebound in the phosphate fertilizer industry has provided support for sulfur demand, with high operating rates for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate since the second half of the year [4] - The development of Indonesia's nickel smelting projects is expected to significantly increase sulfur demand, with an estimated additional requirement of about 500,000 tons by 2027 [4] - The renewable energy sector is projected to be the fastest-growing segment for sulfur demand, with its share expected to rise from 5% in 2024 to 8% in 2025 [5] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The announcement of Qatar Energy's sulfur contract price for December, which increased by $95 to $495 per ton, has further stimulated domestic prices, leading to a rise in port prices [3] - Market sentiment remains bullish, with over 70% of traders expecting further price increases despite current high price levels [6] - The ongoing tight supply situation and high international prices are expected to maintain upward pressure on domestic prices, with traders reluctant to lower their selling prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly trends of non - ferrous metals, analyzing the price movements, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks of various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It suggests different trading strategies based on each metal's characteristics, like holding copper long - positions with certain stop - profit measures, being cautious about high - position risks in tin, etc. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Price and Market**: Last week, both domestic and foreign copper prices hit record highs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. The spot signal shows that the inflection point of copper price is not obvious. [1] - **Supply**: In December, there is a certain production rush expectation, with an estimated monthly output increase of 5.57 tons. Domestic smelters may choose to reduce the production of 106 primary copper concentrates during equipment shutdown. [1] - **Outlook**: The LME copper price is at a high level, and the spot premium has decreased. The market is mainly trading based on expectations. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices may pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the copper price at a record high may correct. Long - positions can be held along the M5 moving average, and partial active profit - taking can be considered. [1] 3.2 Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, with no long - term production reduction. In December and January, 50,000 tons and 110,000 tons of exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out respectively. [1] - **Demand**: The downstream aluminum processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% month - on - month. In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 14.8% year - on - year but increased by 66,800 tons month - on - month. [1] - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 985,000 tons, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 7000 tons to 121,000 tons. The inventory is higher than in previous years. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China have widened. [1] - **Outlook**: Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of silver and copper prices has driven up aluminum prices. The medium - term fluctuating and strengthening trend continues, but in the short term, market sentiment may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see. [1] 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Market**: Last week, SHFE zinc rose 3.92% and strongly broke through the annual line, following the external market trend. The internal - external price difference is oscillating at a high level. [1] - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased to 55,400 tons. Overseas smelters' production resumption expectations are insufficient. The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and domestic smelter maintenance is expanding. The zinc ingot export window is open, and downstream demand is stable. [1] - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the expected investment in underground pipeline network construction and renovation is about 5 trillion, and galvanized pipe consumption is expected to be strong in 2026. [1] - **Outlook**: Supported by tight ore supply, SHFE zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound. After breaking through the annual line, it is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark. [1] 3.4 Lead - **Price and Market**: Last week, the expectation of smelter production reduction and increased downstream bargain - hunting purchases supported the market rebound. The SHFE lead main contract rose 1.7%, and LME lead rebounded to the 20 - day moving average and then faced pressure. [1] - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 243,000 tons, still relatively high. The supply of lead concentrates is in short supply, and the recycling volume of waste batteries has decreased. The market supply of lead ingots is tight. [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery production increased by 1.07 percentage points to 24.46% week - on - week. The consumer market has both positive and negative factors, with insufficient incremental expectations. [1] - **Outlook**: Constrained by cost and consumption, SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton. There may be short - term price increases due to capital movements. [1] 3.5 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: SHFE nickel rebounded and traded sideways at a high level, with light market trading and relatively low positions. SHFE stainless steel also rebounded, but overall trading was sluggish. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In the context of repeated macro - expectations, the willingness of both long and short sides to compete has decreased. Although stainless steel mills have frequently announced production cuts, the actual production reduction in November was insufficient. Downstream demand confidence is lacking. [1] - **Inventory**: Pure nickel inventory increased by 1500 tons to 57,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 997,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: Given high - level inventory and volatile macro - factors, short - selling at high levels is more reasonable. [1] 3.6 Tin - **Price and Market**: Funds have pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and SHFE tin weighted price reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The short - term price fluctuations have increased. [1] - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin exports in November decreased. The situation in the Congo is uncertain. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December. The real - world supply of tin ore is tight, and the cost of recycled materials is fluctuating. [1] - **Demand**: There are no bright spots in traditional fields, and the demand highlight is high - end semiconductor products. Domestic spot trading has deepened, and social inventory has increased. [1] - **Outlook**: In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, the probability of an increase in supply is high, and the recovery speed may be faster than demand. Attention should be paid to high - position risks. [1] 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: Last week, lithium carbonate futures adjusted, with active short - selling in the market. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has slightly corrected. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall demand remains strong. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to perform well. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand. The overall inventory of downstream battery and material factories is flat or slightly reduced. [1] - **Inventory**: The total market inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 113,600 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 21,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1700 tons to 44,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply from a high level, with large market differences. The fundamentals are generally strong, and the short - side is relatively tight. [1] 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The main contract of industrial silicon S12601 showed a weak downward trend in the range of 8900 - 9030 yuan/ton this week. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang has dropped to 9000 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to slightly decline to 396,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%. Some enterprises plan to slightly reduce the supply volume. [1] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 800 tons to 558,000 tons, with an increase in both general and delivery warehouses. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. The inventory reduction at the end of the year is still under pressure. If the actual production reduction of local factories is limited, the price may further decline. [1] 3.9 Polysilicon - **Price**: Last week, the main contract of polysilicon reached a high of 59,200 yuan/ton due to the expectation of warehouse receipts. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress bullish sentiment. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The output in November was 114,600 tons, lower than expected. In December, it is expected to slightly decline. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises have reduced production. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 291,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may still be strong after a brief negative impact if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the increasing pressure on the nickel industry in Indonesia due to waste management challenges, as a major Chinese-controlled smelter is reducing production because its tailings storage is nearing capacity [1] - The Indonesian nickel industry is facing difficulties as the supply of nickel ore is unable to keep pace with the rapid expansion of smelting capacity, leading several smelters to warn of potential production halts [1] - The company, Liqin Resources, has established a comprehensive industrial chain covering nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales, with long-term trade agreements with mining companies in the Philippines and Indonesia [1] Group 2 - Liqin Resources has developed a total nickel production capacity of 400,000 metal tons on OBI Island in Indonesia, and is expanding downstream into nickel sulfate and cobalt, creating a complete nickel product service system [1] - The company's wet process capacity in Indonesia is expected to benefit from the current market conditions, with potential for further expansion in the Indonesian nickel industry chain, which could drive performance and valuation increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel industry is facing increasing challenges related to waste management, highlighted by a major Chinese-controlled smelter in Indonesia reducing production due to its tailings storage nearing capacity [1] Industry Summary - The Indonesian nickel industry is under pressure as nickel ore supply struggles to keep pace with the rapid expansion of smelting capacity, leading several smelters to warn of potential production halts [1] - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, indicated that the industry is experiencing significant stress due to these supply-demand imbalances [1] Company Summary - Company has established a comprehensive nickel product service system covering nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1] - The company has signed long-term trade and supply agreements with mining enterprises in the Philippines and Indonesia, securing its position in the upstream market [1] - The company’s smelting capacity on OBI Island in Indonesia totals 400,000 metric tons of nickel, with potential for future expansion in the Indonesian nickel industry chain, which could drive performance and valuation increases [1]

Core Insights - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, warned that several nickel smelters in Indonesia may halt production if nickel ore supply remains tight [1][2] - Indonesia, holding about 45% of the world's nickel reserves, is facing a supply-demand imbalance as domestic nickel ore supply has not kept pace with the rapid expansion of smelting facilities [1][2] - The country is projected to import over 10.4 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024, with expectations to increase to approximately 15 million tons in 2025 [1] - The nickel price may surge due to tight supply, leading to high production costs and potential shutdowns of smelting plants, which could also hinder investments in Indonesia's battery and electric vehicle sectors [1] - The nickel export ban implemented in 2020 has attracted investments in Indonesia's downstream nickel industry, with smelting capacity expected to reach 1.8 million tons of secondary nickel and about 395,000 tons of primary nickel by 2024 [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia currently holds over 60% of the global nickel market share, becoming a significant player in the stainless steel and battery materials sectors [2] - The government has shortened the effective period of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply amid increasing demand from smelting plants [2] - The imbalance between mineral supply and industrial demand is worsening due to the rapid expansion of smelting facilities and the shortened planning cycle for mining operations [2] - To alleviate the tight nickel ore supply, Arif urged the Indonesian government to prioritize the approval of RKAB applications for mines associated with smelting plants and to enhance exploration efforts and mining technology capabilities [2] - A solid upstream planning is essential to avoid the absurd situation of relying on imported nickel ore, ensuring that local industries in this resource-rich country do not face raw material shortages [2]

Core Insights - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, warned that several nickel smelters in Indonesia may halt production if nickel ore supply remains tight, despite Indonesia holding about 45% of the world's nickel reserves [1][2] - Indonesia is expected to import over 10.4 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024, with projections rising to approximately 15 million tons in 2025 due to increased demand from smelters [1] - The nickel export ban implemented in 2020 has significantly attracted investments in Indonesia's downstream nickel industry, with smelting capacity expected to reach 1.8 million tons of secondary nickel and about 395,000 tons of primary nickel by 2024, a substantial increase from just 250,000 tons of secondary nickel in 2017 [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia currently holds over 60% of the global nickel market share, becoming a key player in the stainless steel and battery materials sectors [2] - The government has shortened the validity of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply amid soaring demand from smelters [2] - Arif urged the government to prioritize the approval of RKAB applications for mines associated with smelters and to enhance exploration efforts and mining technology capabilities to address the supply-demand imbalance [2] Price Trends - As of the latest assessment, the price of Indonesian nickel pig iron with 10% nickel content is $108.50 per ton, reflecting a decrease of $0.50 per ton from the previous day and a drop of $5.6 per ton since November 3 [2]

Group 1 - A major nickel smelter in Indonesia, controlled by Chinese investors, is reducing production due to its tailings storage nearing capacity, highlighting the industry's waste management challenges [1] - The production cut by PT QMB New Energy Materials Co. Ltd. is expected to last at least two weeks, with the company being backed by investors such as GEM Co. and Tsingshan Holding Group [1] - The Morowali Industrial Park, where the smelter is located, is Indonesia's largest nickel industrial base, and the facility's tailings storage is close to saturation while new storage approvals are still pending [1] Group 2 - Regulatory scrutiny of the nickel industry in Indonesia is increasing, driven by environmental concerns related to waste management [2] - Experts question the long-term safety and sustainability of the high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) process in Indonesia, especially after a fatal landslide incident earlier this year [2] Group 3 - High-pressure acid leaching producers are facing rising sulfur procurement costs, which is essential for sulfuric acid production [3] - Despite cost pressures, demand for nickel-cobalt hydroxide products has strengthened this year, largely due to cobalt export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] Group 4 - Nickel has underperformed in a year where base metals are generally weak, with oversupply putting continuous pressure on prices and squeezing industry profitability [4] - A report from Deutsche Bank indicates that the market is experiencing oversupply due to a surge in production, particularly from Indonesia, with global primary nickel production expected to grow by 8% this year [4] - There is potential for a significant price rebound if Indonesia implements effective production controls, as stricter regulations could lead to rapid price increases similar to recent trends in other base metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have broken down due to a combination of supply-demand imbalances and pessimistic demand expectations, with projections indicating a potential price drop to around 100,000-110,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend since November, breaking key support levels and reaching the lowest prices in nearly three years [3][4]. - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a persistent oversupply in the market, particularly in the refined nickel segment, exacerbated by weak demand in the stainless steel sector [5][11]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The nickel industry is facing significant oversupply, with refined nickel production in China maintaining a high growth rate of around 33% over the past two years, while downstream demand remains limited [11][12]. - Current inventories of refined nickel are at elevated levels, nearing the highs seen during periods of low demand in 2020 [15][28]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential policy disruptions from resource countries, the likelihood of significant reductions in nickel ore production is low, maintaining a bearish outlook for prices [28][30]. - The anticipated increase in high-nickel solid-state battery production is not expected until 2027, further complicating the demand recovery for refined nickel [1][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A bearish strategy is recommended, with opportunities for selling out-of-the-money call options following the recent rapid price decline [2][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar index is expected to decline, and nickel prices may rise. Macroscopically, although there are significant differences among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in December, the Challenger job - cut figures released in October soared, indicating a cooling labor market and increasing the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The rising expectation of an interest rate cut may cause the relatively high US dollar index to decline, which is beneficial for nickel prices. Fundamentally, the nickel ore price will remain at an absolute high due to the rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines and the impact of extreme weather, providing strong cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still at the bottom due to the drag of the real - estate market, while the new - energy market may drive nickel demand. Supply in China is expected to remain high due to the ramping - up of new production capacity. Overall, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but the expected decline of the US dollar index may boost nickel prices [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week | Variety | Price on 2025/11/7 | Price on 2025/10/31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119,440 | 120,590 | - 1,150 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15,060 | 15,226 | - 166 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 253,104 | 252,102 | 1,002 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 32,634 | 31,388 | 1,246 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,100 | 2,550 | 550 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 450 | 150 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 933 | 937 | - 4 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 86.3 | 85.8 | 0.45 | Ten thousand tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: The US dollar index first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the contraction of US dollar liquidity, while the sharp decline at the end of the week was caused by the significant increase in the Challenger job - cut figures in October, which raised the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December. Federal Reserve officials have different views on the pace of interest rate cuts in December. The manufacturing PMI in October decreased slightly, and the composite index has been below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. The employment data showed that the ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, and the Challenger job - cut figures reached 153,000 [5]. - **Industry - level**: - **Nickel Ore**: Affected by extreme weather in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore may tighten, and the price remains at an absolute high. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines is 50 US dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly to 38.55 US dollars/wet ton [3][6]. - **Refined Nickel**: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import volume of refined nickel in September increased significantly, mainly from Russia. The export volume also increased year - on - year. As of October 31, the spot import loss of refined nickel slightly expanded [6][7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) decreased by about 0.7% this week. In October, the production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia increased. As of November 6, the upstream and downstream inventories of nickel iron increased, the integrated inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The market expects that the production of 300 - series stainless steel in November will change little. As of November 6, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, dragging down the consumption of stainless steel, and the traditional demand market is difficult to improve significantly [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In October, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased significantly. The profit margins of some production processes of nickel sulfate improved. In the new - energy market, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, there is a risk of a decline in demand after the expiration of the purchase - tax window period [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 9,029 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,246 tons, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,002 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 2,248 tons [11][13]. 3.3 Industry News - Zeb Nickel obtained the mining license in South Africa and plans to start nickel ore development in 2026, with an expected annual production of 20,000 tons of nickel concentrate [14]. - The side - blown melting furnace of Jinchuan Nickel - Cobalt Smelter completed maintenance and was successfully ignited, marking the end of the flash - furnace system maintenance and the start of a new production cycle [14]. - SMGA, a subsidiary of Sumber Global Energy, entered the nickel smelting business, planning to produce nickel matte and develop a converter nickel - smelting facility using the OESBF technology [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24].