Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the trend of nickel and stainless steel is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream demand weakness is gradually giving negative feedback to the upstream. The smelting sector is suffering large - scale losses, and only the MHP segment has a good profit margin. This will make smelters more inclined to push down the price of pyrometallurgical ores. In the third quarter, with the reduced impact of the rainy season in Indonesia, production and transportation efficiency will improve marginally, and the pyrometallurgical ores in Indonesia will face pressure of declining premiums. However, the supply of high - grade pyrometallurgical ores is tight, which may limit the decline in prices [2][70] - Currently, both upstream and downstream are squeezing the smelting profit to an inverted state. The output adjustment actions of Chinese - funded enterprises are less sensitive to profit. If the short - term production cut is less than expected, the oversupply situation may intensify. In terms of structure, new capacity of NPI in Indonesia is still being put into production, but most of the production schedules have been postponed. The supply - demand situation has deteriorated marginally. Attention should be paid to the production cut rhythm in the second half of the year. For refined nickel, it is still in the expansion cycle, but the share is gradually concentrating on the leading enterprises. The integration of hydrometallurgy squeezing pyrometallurgy is the future trend. The supply increment this year basically matches the increment of intermediate products. However, the current implicit inventory replenishment supports the explicit inventory, and its sustainability in the second half of the year needs to be monitored [3] - In the second half of the year, the nickel consumption side has declined compared with the initial expectations at the beginning of the year. For stainless steel, although the export side is okay, tariffs will indirectly suppress domestic demand. Due to weak demand, steel mills are suffering losses and cutting production, which weakens the nickel consumption. For ternary materials, it is estimated that the year - on - year decline in production in the second half of the year will narrow compared with the first half of the year. In general, the domestic ternary nickel consumption will decline by 14,000 metal tons year - on - year. Abroad, the ternary production capacity is gradually ramping up, which will make up for part of the reduction in China from a global perspective. Comprehensively, the consumption of nickel sulfate will show a slight decline [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Mineral End 3.1.1 Sulfide Nickel Ore - The production cut rhythm of sulfide nickel ore has slowed down, and the existing production lines are operating stably. Vale's Onça Puma operation area achieved higher production after the furnace reconstruction in Q1 2024, and Canada's VBME also promoted a large year - on - year increase in the sulfide nickel ore project in the Canadian region due to higher production. Russian nickel's production in Q1 2025 decreased by 1.1% year - on - year to 41,600 tons due to the short - term maintenance plans of the Nadezhda smelter and the Talnakh concentrator. Currently, Russian nickel is facing a decline in foreign currency income due to the appreciation of the ruble and the restriction of high - interest rates on investment plans. In the context of the trade war, weak demand may drag down the overall production. The company expects the total refined nickel production in 2025 to reach 204,000 - 211,000 tons, and it is more likely to fall on the left side of the range, basically flat year - on - year [23] - In Australia, the production of the currently operating nickel ore projects remained at a low level in the first quarter. The decline in ore grade has indirectly led to an increase in mining and processing costs and a marginal decrease in the final output of nickel products. BHP stopped the operation of its refined nickel production line in October last year. In Q1 2025, it only had a high - grade nickel matte production of 2,300 metal tons, and the mine end was completely shut down. The Mt Keith and Leinster nickel ore projects had zero production in Q1 2025, and the high - grade nickel matte project is also expected to stop production later. IGO has only had the Nova project since the fourth quarter of last year. In Q1 2025, its nickel production decreased by 6.5% year - on - year to 4,279 metal tons (only comparing Nova itself, the total production decreased by 34.4% year - on - year) and increased by 23% quarter - on - quarter. Although the nickel ore grade has been improved this quarter due to factors such as the mining sequence and the stoping area, the expected nickel ore grade this year is still at a historical low. It is estimated that the nickel production in the 2025 fiscal year will be on the left side of the guidance range (guidance: 15,000 - 18,000 tons). The Nova - Bollinger mine is expected to stop production at the end of Q4 2026 due to grade depletion [24] - Overall, after the large - scale clearance of high - cost production lines of sulfide nickel ore in 2024, the existing production capacity can basically maintain normal production and is no longer affected by the profit collapse. It is expected that except for the Nova project, which will stop production due to reserve issues, the production of other sulfide nickel ore projects will basically fluctuate within the current production range [28] 3.1.2 Laterite Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: The expectation of ore shortage within the year has been alleviated, and the nickel ore price is under great pressure to decline in the third quarter. At the beginning of the year, although APNI announced that the annual nickel ore quota had been approved for about 298 million wet tons, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources later set the annual nickel ore production target at 220 million wet tons and repeatedly stated that it would cut the RKAB nickel ore quota. Coupled with the heavy rainfall on the Greater K Island, the local transportation and supply rhythm were restricted, and the nickel ore premium quickly increased. As of the end of May, the approved RKAB quota in Indonesia was about 300 million wet tons. However, due to the long rainy season on the Greater K Island this year and the mismatch between the actual shipment capacity and production capacity of some mines that have obtained RKAB approvals, the supply of nickel ore in the market is still tight, and the domestic trade price has not weakened. It is estimated that the annual nickel ore consumption in Indonesia will reach 280 - 290 million wet tons, and the supply, after considering the supply efficiency based on the quota, is expected to be about 260 million wet tons, still having a certain supply - demand gap. This gap can be partly filled by importing nickel ore from the Philippines, but the cost is relatively high, which puts great pressure on smelters. In the second half of the year, there is still an import demand for Philippine nickel ore, but the year - on - year growth rate should slow down compared with the first half of the year, with an estimated annual import volume of over 14 million wet tons. If the domestic nickel ore quota in Indonesia is insufficient, mining enterprises can still apply for new quotas to expand the supply [29][32] - **Philippines**: There was a short - term supply - demand mismatch in the first half of the year, and the price is under great pressure to decline in the second half of the year. With the significant year - on - year increase in Indonesia's demand for Philippine nickel ore and the 4.7% year - on - year decline in the first - quarter production of Philippine nickel ore, the tight supply pattern of Philippine nickel ore has pushed up the price rapidly. The CIF price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia and China has risen from $44 per wet ton at the beginning of the year to about $53 per wet ton in mid - June. It is estimated that the raw material demand will weaken marginally in the third quarter, and the price will be under pressure. The production of Philippine nickel ore has strong seasonality. Affected by the long rainy season this year, the first - quarter production decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. Based on the analysis of Indonesian nickel ore, the annual demand for Philippine nickel ore from Indonesia is supported, but the year - on - year growth rate slows down compared with the first half of the year. The iron plants in China are expected to maintain rigid demand. The annual production forecast of Philippine nickel ore is raised to 401,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decline of 1.3%. From the perspective of domestic imports and port inventories, Philippine nickel ore is still the main import source. The port inventory has decreased rapidly this year, and the overall domestic import volume has decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the domestic import volume of Philippine nickel ore will continue to decline year - on - year before the ore price drops or the NPI profit recovers. In the first quarter, the income of major nickel ore enterprises in the Philippines increased significantly. Asian Nickel's first - quarter sales revenue increased by 16% year - on - year, but the combined EBITDA decreased by 80 million pesos year - on - year due to the increase in marginal cost caused by bad weather. The income of Global Ferronickel in the first quarter reached 1.22 billion pesos, and the net profit attributable to FNI shareholders increased significantly from 10.6 million pesos in the same period last year to 170 million pesos. In terms of new nickel ore projects, Asian Nickel has adjusted its exploration plan, with the South Upper Guintalunan project put into production at the end of 2024 and Manicani expected to contribute incremental production in 2025 [52][53][63] 3.1.3 Conclusion and Thoughts - The clearance process of high - cost sulfide nickel ore production lines is basically over. Except for the Nova project, which will stop production due to reserve issues, the production of other sulfide nickel ore projects will basically fluctuate within the current production range [70] - The supply of laterite nickel ore was tight in the first half of the year, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of ore supply loosening and price decline. The nickel ore market in Indonesia has felt tight since the beginning of 2025. The high import volume of Philippine nickel ore may be a last - resort measure due to the shortage. The "ore shortage" concern mentioned in the first - quarter report has been temporarily alleviated, but the annual supply is still tight, and new quotas may be released in the fourth quarter. Currently, the downstream demand weakness is giving negative feedback to the upstream. The smelting sector is suffering large - scale losses, and only the MHP segment has a good profit margin. This will make smelters more inclined to push down the price of pyrometallurgical ores. It is judged that in the third quarter, with the reduced impact of the rainy season in Indonesia, the pyrometallurgical ores in Indonesia will face pressure of declining premiums. However, the high - grade pyrometallurgical ores are still scarce in the market, which may limit the decline in price [70] 3.2 Smelting End 3.2.1 Nickel Iron - **China**: After the low - cost NPI from Indonesia has squeezed the domestic market share, the high - cost production lines of domestic nickel iron plants have basically been cleared. The domestic enterprises still in operation are mostly integrated with downstream steel mills for self - use, and only a small amount of marketable resources are still in production. It is expected that the domestic production will maintain a low - level fluctuation, and more expansion projects will be invested in Indonesia. It is relatively difficult to see further domestic production cuts, which may require the joint production cut of downstream stainless steel. In 2025, the monthly NPI production in China is basically between 22,000 - 25,000 metal tons. From January to May, the production decreased slightly to 115,000 metal tons compared with the same period last year. From January to April, the import volume was 442,000 metal tons, an increase of 62,000 metal tons or 16.4% year - on - year. Considering the expected weakening of stainless steel consumption in the future, it is estimated that the domestic NPI production will decrease by 10,000 metal tons to 290,000 metal tons this year. After the US reciprocal tariff was implemented in April, the demand for downstream stainless steel weakened significantly. In May, some cold - rolling mills began to cut production, which gradually led to a slowdown in NPI procurement and an accumulation of NPI social inventory. As of mid - June, the NPI inventory in major domestic regions reached 34,610 tons, with a year - on - year/quarter - on - quarter inventory accumulation rate of 57.9%/10% [75][79] - **Indonesia**: In the first half of 2025, 6 new submerged arc furnaces were put into production in Indonesia, and the production increase rate slowed down significantly, with a total new annual production capacity of about 90,000 metal tons. Currently, the total number of operating furnaces in Indonesia has reached 223, and the capacity utilization rate is about 70% - 80%. From January to May, the total NPI production in Indonesia was 751,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. From the cost - profit perspective, the current cost of a single nickel point in Indonesia is about 957 - 1040 yuan per nickel, and the corresponding gross profit margin at a price of 940 yuan per nickel (ex - ship, tax included) is between - 12% and - 3%. Both Chinese and Indonesian iron plants are in a loss state, and downstream steel mills have a strong intention to push down the raw material price. Although NPI has cost support and is restricted from further decline, there is no driving force for a rebound. If the nickel ore price drops as expected in the second half of the year and the stainless steel demand does not recover, NPI may face further price pressure due to cost reduction. It is believed that NPI will face production cut pressure in the second half of the year due to weakening demand and shrinking profit. If the production cut is less than expected, the balance sheet may further deteriorate, leading to a further decline in the NPI price. The overall production capacity expansion speed this year has slowed down significantly. In the first half of the year, only KPS, NMI, NNI, and CNI put a total of 6 furnaces into production, involving a production capacity of about 90,000 metal tons. Under the current industry competition, the new production line investment is often postponed, and some un - commissioned furnaces may be directly shut down [81] 3.2.2 Intermediate Products: High - Grade Nickel Matte and MHP - MHP is currently the product with the lowest cost and best profit in the smelting sector, showing a gradual expansion trend this year. However, due to the large initial investment, long pay - back period, and long construction period of hydrometallurgical production capacity, new entrants are mostly large - scale leading enterprises, and the production capacity release process is relatively slow. From January to May 2025, the total MHP production in Indonesia was 184,800 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 66%. In late March, due to environmental factors, some hydrometallurgical production lines were shut down, resulting in a month - on - month decrease of about 7,000 metal tons in production, which was fully recovered in mid - May. As of June, the commissioned MHP production lines have basically reached full production or even over - production, and future production growth depends on the new production capacity release speed [92] - In the first quarter, the economic efficiency of high - grade nickel matte was worse than that of NPI produced by the same RKEF production line. Since the conversion between RKEF production of NPI and high - grade nickel matte is very flexible, most production lines such as Zhongwei, Huake, and Xuri switched to NPI production, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased rapidly. From January to May 2025, the total production of low - grade and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia (excluding the part of low - grade nickel matte converted to high - grade nickel matte) was 114,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%, lower than the levels in 2023 and 2024. The oxygen - enriched side - blowing production line is only used for high - grade nickel matte production, but its current production capacity accounts for a relatively low proportion. In May, the production of high - grade nickel matte from the oxygen - enriched side - blowing production accounted for about 14% [93] - Considering the combined monthly metal production of MHP and high - grade nickel matte, it has shown a rapid downward trend since the beginning of the year. Even when combined with the NPI metal production, it has shown a slight downward trend, which may reflect the tight supply of nickel ore. Looking forward, if the smelting sector is reluctant to cut production despite strong downstream negative feedback and the nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and if the combined metal production of the three shows a marginal upward trend, the high demand for nickel ore will continue, which will limit the decline in nickel ore price, and the high - price nickel ore will squeeze the smelting profit and limit production expansion. On the contrary, if the smelting sector cuts production due to profit inversion, the demand for raw materials will weaken, and the nickel ore price may decline, leading to a simultaneous decline in smelting production and cost. Overall, under the continuous downstream negative feedback, it is believed that the smelting production will likely decline in the future, and the profit inversion will also put pressure on the nickel ore price. As long as the nickel ore supply loosens marginally, it will prompt the smelting sector to re - establish a balance at a reasonable low level [94] - China mainly imports intermediate products, with

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a significant drop in oil prices and a weakening of the US dollar index, while increasing market risk appetite [2][6]. - Gold prices are under pressure due to the cease - fire and the potential for a July interest rate cut [3][17][18]. - Different commodity markets show various trends. For example, the agricultural product market has inventory changes, the black metal market has weak demand, and the energy - chemical market is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [4][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce called for optimizing rebate policies and shortening the rebate settlement cycle [13]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended a political consultative meeting and emphasized economic reform tasks [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Finance met with the China - US Chamber of Commerce delegation to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations [15]. - Investment advice: Balance asset allocation [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Bowman supports a July interest rate cut if inflation is under control [17]. - Trump announced a phased full - scale cease - fire between Israel and Iran [17]. - Gold prices are weakening, with a risk of decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions and the potential for a rate cut [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru aims to win a majority in the Senate election and ensure energy supply [20]. - A Fed official supports a July interest rate cut [20]. - Trump announced a temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to decline in the short term [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 52 [22]. - Iran's attack on a US military base was less than expected [23]. - Fed Vice - Chair Bowman hinted at a possible July interest rate cut [24]. - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to oscillate weakly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [25]. - Yield is approaching the previous low, and institutions with floating profits may take profit. The bond market is expected to oscillate weakly at the beginning of the week and strengthen later [25]. - Investment advice: Long - position holders can continue to hold, and consider buying on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 903 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of June, with a lower daily average export volume than last year [27]. - The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained the same as the previous week [28]. - Domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory continued to rise [29]. - Investment advice: The market lacks a basis for a sharp rise, with short - term prices oscillating. Focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US relations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% from June 1 - 20 [30]. - Palm oil and soybean oil inventories in China increased [30][31]. - The bullish sentiment in the vegetable oil market has weakened, and the increase in palm oil production may lead to inventory accumulation [31]. - Investment advice: Consider buying put options, and beware of the impact of geopolitical factors on the vegetable oil market [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Port steam coal inventories are increasing, and the market has weak demand [32]. - Coal prices have slightly rebounded, and the demand for power plants has seasonally recovered [33]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to weather and port transaction conditions [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From January to May, power grid project investment reached 204 billion yuan [33]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and limited price rebound [33]. - Investment advice: Expect iron ore prices to remain weak [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The by - product market of corn starch has a complex situation, with some prices stable and others showing signs of decline [35]. - Investment advice: Observe the market, as the CS - C spread is complex [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices in Northeast China have risen [36]. - Investment advice: Observe old - crop contracts, and consider shorting new - crop contracts at high prices [36]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia cancelled anti - dumping duties on steel from South Korea and Vietnam [36]. - Five major construction central enterprises' new contract value in the first five months exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan [37]. - Steel prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and uncertain future trends [37]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and consider hedging on price rebounds [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Silicon wafer prices are falling, and the polysilicon market has weak demand [39][40]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term shorting and long - term going long, and pay attention to the 08 - 09 positive spread opportunity [41]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The number of operating 97 - high - silicon factories has decreased [42]. - Industrial silicon production is increasing, with weak demand and expected price oscillations at a low level [42]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting on price rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes [43]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount, and lead ingot inventory has decreased [44][45]. - Lead supply may decrease marginally, and demand is in the off - season [45]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider buying on dips [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount, and zinc ingot inventory has decreased [47]. - Zinc prices are oscillating, with an expected oversupply in the fundamentals [47]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting at high prices, and pay attention to spread trading opportunities [48]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian nickel - iron plant may be acquired [49][50]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to weak demand and expected oversupply [51]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [51]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhuhai Guanyu received a nomination notice from Dongfeng Nissan [52]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are under pressure, and new positions are increasing [52]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions, consider partial profit - taking for old short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [53]. 3.2.14 Energy - Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG has increased [55]. - The market's risk premium for LPG is expected to decline [56]. - Investment advice: Expect the LPG futures price to decline [57]. 3.2.15 Energy - Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran agreed to a cease - fire, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices [58]. - Investment advice: Oil prices will give back the risk premium [59]. 3.2.16 Energy - Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is weakening, with general sales [60]. - Supply is stable, and demand is weak [61][62]. - Investment advice: The downside space of the caustic soda futures is limited [63]. 3.2.17 Energy - Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has partially stopped falling and rebounded [64]. - Investment advice: The price increase of pulp futures is expected to be limited [64]. 3.2.18 Energy - Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is fluctuating slightly [65]. - Investment advice: The impact of the Middle - East geopolitical issue on PVC prices is expected to be limited [65]. 3.2.19 Energy - Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have slightly increased, and the de - stocking pattern continues [66][67]. - Investment advice: Expect PX prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [68]. 3.2.20 Energy - Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices have decreased, and the basis has weakened [69]. - PTA supply and demand are generally balanced, with a slightly positive outlook [70]. - Investment advice: Expect PTA prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [71]. 3.2.21 Energy - Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventories have decreased [72]. - Asphalt prices are affected by oil prices and demand, with an upward risk [72]. - Investment advice: Expect asphalt prices to oscillate upward [73]. 3.2.22 Energy - Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a weak oscillation [74]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting soda ash at high prices in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy - Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market have slightly adjusted [75]. - With the arrival of the off - season, glass demand will decline, and prices may fall [76]. - Investment advice: The spot price of float glass may decline, and the futures price may be affected by market sentiment [76]. 3.2.24 Energy - Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory quotes are mostly stable, with some transactions [77][79]. - Bottle chip production is expected to decrease in July, alleviating supply pressure [79]. - Investment advice: Consider expanding the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of raw material price fluctuations [79]. 3.2.25 Energy - Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene port inventory has increased [80]. - Styrene supply is recovering, and demand is relatively stable [82]. - Investment advice: Styrene's own driving force is limited, and pay attention to the supply and demand of pure benzene and oil price fluctuations [82]. 3.2.26 Energy - Chemicals (Urea) - The agricultural sector is deploying soybean and oilseed production work [83]. - Urea prices in the domestic market are weakening, with different supply situations in different regions [84]. - Investment advice: The urea futures market may change from a rebound to a weak consolidation, affected by geopolitical and export policies [85].

Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]

Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative efforts of Chai Guoliang in improving nickel product quality through new structural diaphragm racks and precise liquid level control, achieving a nickel purity of 99.99% [2][5] Group 1: Innovations in Nickel Production - Chai Guoliang's team developed a new diaphragm rack that reduces thickness and increases the space between anodes and cathodes, addressing previous issues of operational inconvenience and production efficiency [3] - The new diaphragm design features rounded corners to prevent scratching of the anode, enhancing the strength of the diaphragm rack and improving smelting efficiency [3] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - High-quality nickel production requires strict control over chemical composition and physical appearance, with nickel plate thickness needing to be 2-3 times that of ordinary nickel plates [4] - Initial attempts to increase thickness led to uneven products, prompting the team to explore various methods to control the liquid level difference, which was identified as a key issue [4] Group 3: Breakthroughs and Future Goals - A breakthrough occurred when Chai Guoliang drew inspiration from a water bottle, leading to the invention of an S-shaped liquid level adjustment device that allows for precise control of liquid levels in the electrolysis tank [4] - The high-quality nickel produced is utilized in various applications, including the minting of 1 yuan coins, and the team is pursuing further technological advancements towards short processes, diverse products, and high efficiency [5]

PNBP在产业链条中仅征收一次，鉴于PNBP新政策执行对象为采矿许可证持有人，而多数冶炼厂和贸易公司 并不持有采矿许可证，因此该政策主要影响镍矿商的生产成本，进而传导至下游。依据5月第一期印尼镍矿 内贸基准价，矿企需要多缴纳税费约1.2美元/湿吨，镍铁及冰镍生产成本上涨10~15元/吨，湿法中间品MHP 生产成本不受影响，3月以来市场对该政策已经充分计价。 成本支撑犹存 镍矿方面，由于降雨天气仍然对矿区造成影响，印尼镍矿现货供应偏紧，加上镍矿商挺价情绪较浓，印尼镍 矿内贸价格较为坚挺，1.6%~1.8%品位的镍矿价格为53.61~60.45美元/湿吨，为镍价提供底部支撑。中间品方 面，3月底MHP大规模集中检修，预计3—5月期间总计减产幅度将达到1万镍金属吨，而3月高冰镍产线在高 利润驱动下约有2万金属吨/月的产能转产镍铁，因此MHP及高冰镍现货供应相对偏紧，其港口价格分别上涨 至13047美元/金属吨和13588美元/金属吨。数据显示，截至4月底，MHP一体化生产精炼镍的成本为107318 元/吨，高冰镍一体化生产精炼镍工艺的成本为127268元/吨。笔者认为，在MHP投产不及预期、供应未能大 量释放的情况 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].