在其他市场，美国十年期国债收益率收于4.145%，跌0.86%；2026年2月黄金期货收于4332.35美元/盎 司，与周一比几乎没有什变化；得克萨斯西部轻质油收于55.07美元/桶，跌1.6美元，即2.82%；美元指 数收于97.86点，跌0.10%。显而易见，投资者对经济的忧虑加深了。 美联储决策者和投资者所期盼的10月和11月份就业报告终于出炉，结果显示，就业市场进入"低雇佣-低 裁员"模式。10月，联邦政府裁员16.2万人，私营部门增加5.2万个岗位，整体裁减了10.5万个就业岗 位。11月，建筑行业增加2.8万个岗位，医疗服务（应对老龄化问题）增加了6.4万个岗位，总体增加了 6.4万个岗位。 就业市场基本面没有什么变化，医疗服务部门提供了绝大多数就业岗位，而其他经济部门处于低水平调 整模式或维持现状，尤其是备受关注的制造业和信息服务部门保持低裁员趋势。 南方财经21世纪经济报道特约撰稿 王应贵、娄世艳 北美当地时间12月16日，美国劳工部最新报告显示，10月份全美裁员10.5万个，11月份新增岗位6.4万 个；10月份，零售额同比增长3.47%，低于9月的4.18%，环比增长为0%，与9月份持平。 ...

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the Non-Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the monthly increase in social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year; PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, down from -2.1% in the previous month but up from -2.5% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, turning positive from -1.1% in the previous month but slightly down from 6.58% in the same period last year; imports increased by 1.9% year-on-year, up from 1.0% in the previous month and turning positive from -4.03% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with 8 key tasks including promoting investment recovery, developing new energy, and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - High-frequency data in November showed positive trends in consumption, investment, and foreign trade, with offline consumption index up 12.0% year-on-year, infrastructure project中标金额 and construction machinery operating rate increasing, and international freight flights up 6.2 percentage points from October [2] - In the first 11 months, China's total goods import and export value increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with private enterprises' imports and exports reaching 23.52 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, and the number of private enterprises with import and export records increasing by 66,000 [3] 2.2 Metals - The aluminum industry chain prices are diverging, with alumina prices halved from a year ago while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, leading to improved profitability for electrolytic aluminum enterprises and potential losses for some alumina enterprises [4] - As of December 11, 2025, the international silver futures price on the COMEX had increased by 113.3% since the beginning of the year, reaching $62.5 per ounce [4] - Goldman Sachs believes there is room to raise the gold price forecast to $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 if US private investors increase their investment in gold ETFs [5] 2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Jilin Province plans to develop future industries such as artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy, and new energy storage [8] - Citibank revised its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude oil prices to remain stable in 2026, with an average price of $62 per barrel in the base scenario and potentially reaching $75 per barrel in an optimistic scenario [8] - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9] 2.4 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to continue rising in December, potentially exceeding 3 million tons if exports remain weak, and its 2025 production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [11] - Argentina reduced the export tax rate for soybeans from 26% to 24% and for wheat and barley from 9.5% to 7.5% [11] - Brazil has been authorized to export beef and beef products to Guatemala [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 11, the central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan as 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [14] 3.2 Key News - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic work, emphasizing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and outlined 8 key tasks [15] - The Ministry of Commerce will issue opinions to promote the innovation and development of the retail industry [15] - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 3.4%, and new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 20.6% [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market continued to perform well, with most interest rate bond yields declining, and treasury bond futures rising [19] - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally adjusted downward, while some other bonds such as "25 TeGuo 03" rose [20] - Most money market interest rates declined on December 11 [21] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.058 on December 11, up 58 points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0686, up 67 points [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the Central Economic Work Conference provided clear policy directions, including more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and emphasized new industries and anti-competition [25] - CITIC Securities expects the fiscal budget deficit rate to remain at around 4% in 2026, with a slight increase in the scale of special treasury bonds and local special bonds, and there may be a 10bps interest rate cut in the first half of the year [25][26] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the November inflation data has some impact on the bond market, but the bond market's counterattack logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold short-term credit bonds, certificates of deposit, and interest rate bonds with maturities of 5 - 7 years or less [26] 4. Stock Market News - The A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.41%, while the BeiZheng 50 Index rose 3.84% [29] - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.04%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.83%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.23% [29]

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 12月4日，金价在盘中持续维持弱势，受避险需求降温与美元反弹共同影响，仍徘徊于4200美元下方， 并在本周低点之上保持震荡。市场风险偏好逐步改善，使贵金属的短线买盘动力减弱；与此同时，美元 自10月底以来的阶段性低位出现修正，也在短线形成反向压力。GTC泽汇资本认为，在风险资产维持积 极基调的背景下，黄金暂时缺乏强劲驱动力，但整体下行空间有限，宽松预期仍在为金价提供底部支 撑。 12月4日，金价在盘中持续维持弱势，受避险需求降温与美元反弹共同影响，仍徘徊于4200美元下方， 并在本周低点之上保持震荡。市场风险偏好逐步改善，使贵金属的短线买盘动力减弱；与此同时，美元 自10月底以来的阶段性低位出现修正，也在短线形成反向压力。GTC泽汇资本认为，在风险资产维持积 极基调的背景下，黄金暂时缺乏强劲驱动力，但整体下行空间有限，宽松预期仍在为金价提供底部支 撑。 近期数据表现继续强化市场对宽松周期的判断。11月私营部门就业录得3.2万意外下降，显著弱于预 期，叠加此前多项宏观指标显示经济动能放缓，强化了市场对于下周政策利率下调25个基点的押注。 GTC泽汇资本认为 ...

以供应管理协会（ISM）11月发布的工厂状况调查为例，受访者普遍表达了深切忧虑。一位来自运输设 备制造行业的高管在报告中指出："受关税环境影响，我们正着手实施更为持久的变革，包括削减员工 规模、向股东更新业绩指引，以及拓展海外制造业务。" 今日周三（12月3日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于950附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂960.76元/克， 涨幅0.13%，最高触及962.18元/克，最低下探948.18元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 根据企业高管与经济预测专家的最新表态，特朗普政府推行的关税政策，旨在促使海外制造业岗位回流 美国，然而这一举措最终或适得其反，导致国内就业岗位减少。 当前，美国劳动力市场已显露疲态，呈现出"不裁员、不增聘"的僵持状态。社会各界日益担忧，针对进 口商品征收的关税将推高企业经营成本，进而迫使企业采取裁员措施以应对压力。 此外，多项迹象表明，至2026年，美国劳动力市场的前景或将更加严峻。经济合作与发展组织 （OECD），拥有38个成员国，于周二发布报告称，尽管关税尚未对全球经济造成剧烈冲击，但全面影 响或许尚未完全显现。 ...

Group 1 - Foreign capital is increasingly optimistic about Chinese technology assets, with UBS and Goldman Sachs projecting a 37% profit increase for Chinese tech companies in 2025 and setting a target of 7100 points for the Hang Seng Tech Index [2] - The significant asset restructuring by Dongfang Precision involves the cash sale of 100% equity in Fosber Group and two other companies for a base price of €774 million, focusing on core business development [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange experienced a major outage due to cooling issues, leading to a surge in silver prices, with the COMEX silver futures contract rising over 6% to reach a historical high [2] Group 2 - A senior executive from a leading brokerage was fined 135 million yuan for insider trading, having made a profit of 18.75 million yuan from undisclosed information [3] - Analyst Li Bei expressed optimism for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a potential bull market due to favorable valuations and improving earnings for leading companies [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is soliciting opinions on several new regulations aimed at promoting market development, including a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts [3] Group 3 - Gold prices surged past $4200 per ounce, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with multiple officials signaling a dovish stance [4] - Major adjustments to A-share indices were announced, with increased representation of the information technology sector, leading to a more balanced industry allocation [5] - Japan plans to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen in government bonds to finance economic stimulus, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential impacts on the yen and Japanese bonds [5] Group 4 - Silver prices reached historical highs, supported by expectations of a supply deficit by 2025 and increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector [5]

Group 1 - The UK government is considering retaliatory measures in response to the EU's proposed steel tariff increases, which could lead to the largest crisis in the domestic metal industry [3] - The EU plans to cut existing foreign steel tariff-free quotas by nearly half and double the tax on excess quotas to 50% [3] - The UK government is exploring stronger trade measures to protect its steel producers from unfair practices while addressing the issue of overcapacity in the industry [3] Group 2 - Current gold futures are trading around 922.76 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.87%, and have fluctuated between a high of 935.52 yuan and a low of 919.34 yuan [1] - The core trading range for gold is expected to be between 910-930 yuan per gram, with a critical support level at 915 yuan [1] - Monitoring the breakout at 920 yuan per gram is essential, along with adjustments based on the fluctuations of the US dollar index [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market is experiencing a decline, with December 2025 gold prices dropping by $49.1 to $4045.1 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.20% due to a lack of positive news in the precious metals sector [1] Market Performance - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price fell by $49.1, closing at $4045.1 per ounce, with a decline of 1.20% [1] - Silver futures for December delivery decreased by $0.636, closing at $50.050 per ounce, marking a drop of 1.25% [1] Economic Data Impact - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the delayed September employment report on November 20 and the inflation-adjusted corporate earnings report on November 21, are expected to provide insights into the U.S. economic situation [1] - These data releases will primarily reflect past economic conditions rather than current trends [1] Market Sentiment - The current sentiment among gold and silver bulls is cautious, as prices remain at historical highs without new supportive fundamentals [1] - Last week saw a strong rebound in gold and silver prices, driven by the reopening of the U.S. government and potential interest rate cuts, which may further elevate gold prices [1] Technical Analysis - The next bullish target for December gold futures is to break through the historical high of $4398 per ounce, while the bearish target is to fall below the strong technical support level of $4000 per ounce [1] - Industrial demand is expected to provide long-term support for silver prices [1]

Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Gold futures are currently trading around 934.94 yuan per gram, with a decline of 2.52% [1] - The highest price reached was 940.88 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 921.38 yuan per gram [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears to be fluctuating [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - President Trump signed an executive order on November 14, removing certain agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariff" list, effective from November 13 [3] - The U.S. has eliminated tariffs on certain food imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador, including coffee and bananas, in response to public concerns over rising prices [3] - A comprehensive agreement was reached between the U.S. and South Korea regarding tariffs and defense, with specific tariff adjustments on products and a commitment from South Korea to invest $350 billion in the U.S. [3] - To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariff policies, the South Korean government plans to increase electric vehicle subsidies by 20% by 2025, reaching 936 billion won, and provide over 15 trillion won in policy financing to auto parts suppliers [3] Group 3: Key Levels for Gold Futures - The key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 1001 yuan per gram and 1020 yuan per gram [4] - Important support levels are noted to be between 766 yuan per gram and 950 yuan per gram [4]

Group 1 - The latest gold futures price for December delivery is reported at $3991.7 per ounce, with a slight decline of $1.2, while COMEX gold futures show a price of 4008.50 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.59% increase [1][3] - The U.S. government shutdown has created a political deadlock, leading to investor concerns about potential economic consequences, which has negatively impacted gold prices after a period of strong gains [1] - The next upward target for December gold futures is to close above the strong resistance level of $4100.00, while the recent downward target for bears is to push prices below the solid support level of $3800.00 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is set to reduce flights at high-traffic airports by 10% to alleviate pressure on the aviation system, a necessary measure for maintaining safety [2] - In October, the number of layoffs in the U.S. reached the highest level for the same month in 22 years, primarily driven by the impact of artificial intelligence, with the technology and warehousing sectors being the most affected [2] - Year-to-date, layoffs in the U.S. have exceeded one million, with recruitment plans at their lowest since 2011, and seasonal hiring plans hitting a new low [2]

Group 1 - Global stock markets are experiencing significant selling pressure, with expectations of a substantial decline in U.S. indices due to concerns over high valuations and AI stock bubbles [1] - Wall Street CEOs suggest that investors should prepare for a market downturn exceeding 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, viewing such a correction as potentially positive [1] - In Brazil, police, supported by Interpol, dismantled hundreds of illegal mining vessels along the Madeira River, marking one of the largest coordinated actions against crime networks in the Amazon basin [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 277 floating mining rafts were destroyed, valued at approximately $6.8 million, with organized crime groups facing an estimated economic loss of about $193 million when accounting for lost gold, equipment, and environmental damage [2] - The ongoing deadlock between Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. government may lead to a historic government shutdown, affecting millions reliant on food assistance and medical subsidies [2] - President Trump indicated that he would not be coerced by Democrats regarding negotiations to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies, suggesting that the government shutdown could persist for some time [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the next bullish target for December gold futures is to push the closing price above the key resistance level of $4,100, while the bearish target is to drop below the key support level of $3,800 [3] - The first resistance level is identified at this week's high of $4,043.10, with further resistance at last Friday's high of $4,059.90, while support is noted at $3,950.00 [3]