Group 1: Rare Earths - The prices of rare earth materials show mixed trends, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreasing by 0.89% to 557,500 CNY/ton, dysprosium oxide increasing by 0.62% to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide decreasing by 0.35% to 7,025,000 CNY/ton [2][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth items and technologies, aiming to strengthen regulations and combat illegal export practices [2][3] - Supply-side constraints are evident due to low-priced ore tightening, while demand is characterized by a wait-and-see attitude, leading companies to focus on inventory consumption [2][3] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices decreasing by 1.13% to 4,375 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron prices decreasing by 0.90% to 276,000 CNY/ton [3] - Demand for molybdenum iron is increasing due to steel procurement, but there are significant losses for iron mills, leading to price fluctuations [3] Group 3: Tungsten - Tungsten prices are experiencing high volatility, with black tungsten concentrate prices decreasing by 0.74% to 268,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices decreasing by 0.89% to 391,500 CNY/ton [3] - Supply constraints are evident due to reduced mining quotas, while domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential purchases [3] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices have increased due to a weak supply-demand balance, with SHFE tin rising by 4.48% to 286,400 CNY/ton and LME tin rising by 5.95% to 36,500 USD/ton [3][4] - The Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining has led to supply tightening, contributing to price increases [5] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony prices are in a downward adjustment phase, with antimony ingot prices decreasing by 2.90% to 167,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices decreasing by 1.97% to 149,500 CNY/ton [5] - Supply is tight due to a halt in overseas mining, while demand remains primarily driven by essential purchases, with expectations for export demand recovery in October [5] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant advancements in both domestic and international projects [6] - The industry is experiencing a high degree of prosperity, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly from ongoing technological breakthroughs and commercial projects [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the target price increases for several companies, with notable gains for SMIC, Weigao Medical, and Tonglian Precision, showing increases of 86.01%, 41.99%, and 38.96% respectively, indicating strong market confidence in the semiconductor, personal care, and consumer electronics sectors [1] Group 2 - From October 6 to October 12, a total of 128 listed companies received broker recommendations, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, BYD, and Seres each receiving three recommendations [3][4] - The companies with the highest number of broker recommendations include Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (3), BYD (3), and Seres (3), all indicating strong interest from analysts [4] Group 3 - During the same period, three companies had their ratings upgraded: Ninebot from "Hold" to "Buy" by Everbright Securities, Jiangfeng Electronics from "Hold" to "Buy" by Northeast Securities, and Xizi Clean Energy from "Recommended" to "Strongly Recommended" by Founder Securities [5] - One company, Lens Technology, had its rating downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by Caitong Securities [6] Group 4 - A total of 36 first-time coverage ratings were issued, with companies like Weili receiving a "Buy" rating from Changjiang Securities, Dongzhu Ecology receiving a "Buy" rating from Guosheng Securities, and Runjian receiving an "Increase" rating from Zhongyou Securities [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - China's rare earth stocks have seen significant price increases, with a year-to-date rise of 111.55% and a recent surge of 19.32% over the past five trading days [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 13, China's rare earth stock price rose by 8.54% to 59.34 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.443 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.36% [1] - The stock has experienced a 19.32% increase in the last five trading days, an 11.86% increase over the last 20 days, and a 45.69% increase over the last 60 days [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China's rare earth company reported revenue of 1.875 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 62.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 162 million CNY, up 166.16% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 19, the number of shareholders for China's rare earth company reached 230,000, an increase of 6.66%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 6.25% to 4,614 shares [3] - The company has distributed a total of 346 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 124 million CNY distributed in the last three years [4] Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 19.6025 million shares, an increase of 3.8909 million shares from the previous period [4] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF was the fifth largest circulating shareholder, holding 11.0663 million shares, an increase of 1.4870 million shares from the previous period [4]

评级调低方面，10月6日至10月12日，券商调低上市公司评级达到1家次，最新数据包括了财通证券对蓝 思科技的评级从"买入"调低至"增持"。 首次覆盖方面，10月6日至10月12日券商共给出了36次首次覆盖，其中维尔利获得长江证券给予"买 入"评级，东珠生态获得国盛证券给予"买入"评级，润建股份获得中邮证券给予"增持"评级，北方稀土 获得兴业证券给予"增持"评级，统联精密获得国泰海通证券给予"增持"评级。 | | | 20家最新被首次覆盖的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 300190 | 维尔利 | 长江证券 | 买入 | 环境治理 | | 603359 | 东珠生态 | 国盛证券 | 买入 | 基础建设 | | 002929 | 润建股份 | 中邮证券 | 增持 | 通信服务 | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 兴业证券 | 增持 | 小金属 | | 688210 | 统联精密 | 国泰海通证券 | 增持 | 消费电子 | | 301611 | 珂玛科技 | 国元证券 | 买入 | 未曾 ...

中国银河证券指出，中美贸易摩擦再度引发市场关注。市场大概率不会复制4月7日行情。短期来看，外 部环境不确定上升压制市场风险偏好，叠加部分资金获利回吐压力，将加剧市场波动，个股分歧或加 大。但是驱动本轮行情的核心因素并未改变。流动性预计延续向好趋势。在"十五五"规划关键窗口期和 三季报披露窗口期，重点关注新一轮政策聚焦领域和业绩确定性较强板块。配置机会方面，关税冲击 下，关注有色金属（贵金属、工业金属、小金属）、农业、能源行业的投资机会。（1）反内卷："十五 五"时期，反内卷政策将保持延续性，并在现有基础上进一步深化。（2）新质生产力主题：顺应国家战 略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是A股投资的重要主线。短期关注低位补涨板块，中长期关注产业 趋势突破。（3）大消费板块：扩内需政策进一步落地，有望带动行情向上。供需两端协同发力下，新 消费浪潮正蓬勃兴起。（4）"两重"领域：多地重大工程项目建设加快推进，将推动产业链的完善和发 展。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations have led to relatively strong performance in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising due to heightened risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][20][21] - The report emphasizes the impact of new export control policies on rare earths, which are expected to strengthen China's competitive edge in the industry and have long-term implications for the entire supply chain [1][3] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have risen, reaching 85,910 CNY/ton, driven by supply shocks and increased export expectations, despite weak domestic demand [1][12] - Aluminum prices increased to 20,980 CNY/ton, with slight reductions in theoretical production capacity due to regional capacity transfers and maintenance [1][15] - Gold prices reached an average of 871.03 CNY/gram, up 3.99% from the previous week, while silver prices rose to 10,856 CNY/kg, up 6.72% [1][20] Minor Metals - Antimony prices have decreased, with 2 high bismuth antimony ingot at 166,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a weak market due to ongoing supply issues and cautious demand [2] - The report notes that the antimony market remains weak, with limited replenishment observed post-holiday [2] Rare Earths - The report discusses the impact of new export control policies on the rare earth industry, with prices for light rare earths slightly decreasing while medium and heavy rare earths saw minor increases [3] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, and processing fees have risen, indicating a potential upward trend in valuations for the sector [3] Outlook - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum for potential investment opportunities based on the current market dynamics [1][19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to remain focused on domestic policies, with a low likelihood of replicating the market conditions seen on April 7. Short-term uncertainties in the external environment may suppress market risk appetite, leading to increased volatility and divergence among individual stocks. However, the core drivers of the current market trend remain unchanged, with liquidity expected to continue improving [1]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals (precious metals, industrial metals, and minor metals), agriculture, and energy for investment opportunities [1]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue and deepen during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. - The theme of new productive forces will be crucial, with technology companies that align with national strategies and possess genuine technological barriers being significant investment targets in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - Short-term attention should be given to sectors that are poised for recovery, while medium to long-term focus should be on industries that are breaking through current trends [1]. - The large consumption sector is anticipated to benefit from the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies, potentially driving market performance upward [1]. - The acceleration of major engineering projects in various regions will promote the improvement and development of industrial chains [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that supply disruptions in Indonesia have driven tin prices higher, while the rare earth industry has introduced export control announcements [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation timeline for total rare earth control, quotas, and overseas rare earth industry catalysts [3] - The report suggests that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is in a high prosperity phase, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [6] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 0.89% decrease in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 557,500 CNY/ton, a 0.62% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and a 0.35% decrease in terbium oxide to 7,025,000 CNY/ton [12][11] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced export controls on certain rare earth items and technologies, targeting illegal export behaviors [3][4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have decreased by 1.13% to 4,375 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices have decreased by 0.90% to 276,000 CNY/ton [23][11] - Demand for molybdenum iron is increasing due to steel procurement, but there are signs of supply contraction [3] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices have decreased by 0.74% to 268,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices have decreased by 0.89% to 391,500 CNY/ton [28][11] - The report notes stable domestic demand with a focus on essential purchases [3] Tin - SHFE tin prices have increased by 4.48% to 286,400 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices have increased by 5.95% to 36,500 USD/ton [33][11] - Supply is tight due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining enterprises, while demand remains cautious [3] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices have decreased by 2.90% to 167,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices have decreased by 1.97% to 149,500 CNY/ton [42][11] - The report anticipates a potential recovery in export demand starting in October [3] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing continuous technological breakthroughs and commercial project implementations, indicating a high growth phase for upstream materials [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a wide-ranging fluctuation phase in the short term, influenced by high valuations and cautious market sentiment, while policy expectations and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may provide support [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently near the 3900-point resistance level, which is anticipated to affect the A-share market in October and prolong the fluctuation period [2]. - The market is likely to experience increased volatility due to external uncertainties and profit-taking pressures, with a focus on mid- to long-term policy expectations [4]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Short-term attention should be on high-dividend and consumer sectors, while mid-term focus shifts to TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [1]. - Financial sectors such as banks and insurance, as well as industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and environmental protection, are recommended for consideration [2]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in non-ferrous metals (precious, industrial, and minor metals), agriculture, and energy sectors, driven by ongoing policy themes and infrastructure projects [4]. Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - A long-term optimistic view on gold is maintained, with potential opportunities arising from capital reallocation due to the peak of the overseas AI technology wave [3]. - The appropriate allocation of gold in personal asset portfolios is suggested to be between 2-10%, while institutional allocations may be increased [3].