说个反直觉的事儿，真能让我们体感变好的，是美联储即将发动的大放水？ 答案主要是在楼市上。 因为消费不仅取决于劳动性收入，还取决于资产性收入，你家里如果有1个亿，哪怕你一天班也不上，你花起钱来也会大手大脚。 而中国60%以上的家庭资产，都压在了房产上，前些年房价飞涨的时候，给我们制造了巨大的财富幻觉效应，让我们也跟着来了一波消费升级。 但自从2022年楼市拐头向下，消费市场也跟着疲软，国家出台了很多刺激政策，以旧换新、消费贷补贴，都是想把消费拉起来。 但如果楼市的趋势没有扭转，人们花起钱来就会感觉底气不足，道理很简单，因为人无远虑必有近忧，大多数人在花钱时，都会考虑未来面临的一些突发情 况，比如生病啊养老啊，只要自己的房子还值钱，以后还可以卖房对抗风险，可房价要是一直往下掉，就不得不省吃俭用提前攒钱，可见房产对于我们来 说，相当于发挥了像社保一样的兜底作用。 可问题恰恰就出在了这里，你的支出就是别人的收入，你花的钱变少了，别人赚的钱也就变少了，别人因此就更不敢花钱了，你也更赚不到钱了，这样就会 陷入一个恶性循环。 那些令人羡慕的高科技行业，虽然产值高利润高，也更能拉动GDP，但对人才的要求也高，能吸纳的就业有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is at a significant turning point, with four major trends reshaping the livelihood landscape and influencing future national development [1] Group 1: Rural Revitalization - A "transportation revolution" is underway in rural China, with fixed asset investment growing by 4.8% in the first eight months of 2025, and infrastructure investment up by 5.3% [2] - The construction of 280,000 kilometers of new rural roads is expected to benefit 3,500 administrative villages and directly increase the income of 1.5 million rural residents [2] - The government has allocated 325 billion yuan for this initiative, a 21% increase from 2024, with 15,300 kilometers of rural roads already completed by the end of August [2][3] - Logistics costs in rural areas have decreased from 0.98 yuan per ton-kilometer in 2024 to 0.85 yuan in 2025, a reduction of 13.3%, leading to an estimated 8.5% increase in farmers' income [3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is at a critical juncture, with new residential prices in 70 major cities declining by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year as of August 2025 [4] - The market has seen a 15.3% decrease in sales area in the first half of 2025, but signs of recovery are emerging, particularly in first-tier cities where new home sales increased by 6.8% in July [4] - The market concentration among the top 100 real estate companies has risen to 65.3%, with state-owned enterprises holding a 43.7% market share, acting as stabilizers [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has adopted a more accommodative monetary policy, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term funds [5] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been reduced by 10 basis points to 3.35%, the lowest since 2020, indicating a supportive environment for the real economy [5] - In August 2025, the social financing scale increased by 2.85 trillion yuan, with a notable 11.3% growth in medium- and long-term loans for enterprises, reflecting a recovery in investment confidence [5] Group 4: Consumption Trends - From January to August 2025, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.6%, with significant disparities across sectors [6] - Basic consumption, such as food and beverages, grew by 3.2%, while smart home appliances surged by 15.3%, and new consumption areas like smart wearables and electric vehicles saw growth rates of 28.5% and 22.6%, respectively [6][9] - Rural consumption is outpacing urban growth, with rural online shopping increasing by 18.3% in the first half of 2025, compared to 11.2% in urban areas, indicating a significant market potential [9]

新房：1-8月光大核心30城住宅成交面积同比-7.8%，成交均价同比+2.8% 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1）2025年8月，光大核心30城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为882万㎡，同比-12.5%，环比-2.2%；其中， 北上广深杭蓉成交面积268万㎡，同比-17.9%，环比-4.7%，余下二线24城成交面积614万㎡，同比-9.9%， 环比-1.1%。 4）2025年1-8月，光大核心10城二手住宅成交均价为24,007元/㎡，同比-0.4%；其中，一线城市成交均价 为35,118元/㎡，同比+0.8%，余下二线城市成交均价为16,281元/㎡，同比-5.0%。 2）2025年1-8月，光大核心30城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为8,499万㎡，同 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, influenced by increased risk appetite and positive industry catalysts, with major indices generally rising [4] - The ChiNext 50 index recorded the highest increase of 5.5%, while the Shanghai 50 index had the smallest rise at 0.9% [4] - The overall valuation of the market is currently at a historically moderate to high level since 2010 [4] Market Style and Sector Performance - There has been a noticeable divergence in market style, with small-cap stocks performing better; small-cap growth stocks rose by 3.4%, while large-cap value stocks fell by 0.2% [4] - In terms of sector performance, the electronics, real estate, and agriculture sectors performed relatively well, with increases of 6.1%, 6.0%, and 4.8% respectively [4] Important Events - Policy advancements include adjustments to the old-for-new appliance subsidy rules in Shanghai and a crackdown on malicious subsidies in the food delivery sector [5] - Economic data released this week showed that China's August exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year, while CPI growth slowed down [5] International Relations - Recent interactions between China and the U.S. have been frequent, with upcoming talks scheduled in Spain involving high-level officials [6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by reasonable valuations and emerging positive factors such as a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7] - Key sectors to focus on in September include power equipment, communications, computers, electronics, automobiles, and media [7] - The TMT sector is anticipated to be a main focus due to liquidity-driven trends and existing upward momentum [7]

Group 1: Real Estate Sales - The real estate market in first and second-tier cities shows signs of marginal recovery, with new home sales experiencing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed to 3.58% [5][10] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year decline in new home sales has significantly narrowed to 3.66%, while second-tier cities have seen a positive year-on-year change [5][19] - Second-hand home sales in major cities have generally increased compared to the previous period and last year, with notable growth in most cities [19] Group 2: Investment and Commodity Prices - Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with slight decreases in rebar and cement prices, while glass futures prices have seen a small increase [23][49] - The price index for asphalt has decreased, indicating ongoing weak market demand [23] Group 3: Production and Operating Rates - The operating rates for various industries, including steel mills and asphalt production, have generally increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [34] - The operating rate for oil asphalt has seen a significant increase from 28.1% to 34.9% [3] Group 4: Consumer Activity - Consumer activity shows strong momentum, with subway ridership exceeding seasonal expectations, while automotive consumption and domestic flight operations align with seasonal trends [39] Group 5: Export Trends - The SCFI index has declined, indicating a decrease in container shipping rates, while the BDI index has increased, suggesting a rise in dry bulk shipping rates [43] Group 6: Price Trends - Pork prices have seen a slight increase, while vegetable prices have decreased, and oil prices have risen, reflecting mixed trends in consumer prices [49]

乌拉圭《界限》2025年9月8日报道，根据乌拉圭商业与服务业商会报告，今年二季度乌销售额同比增长2.2%，连 续六个季度保持增长态势，酒店、房地产和超市表现最佳，餐厅、便利店和个人护理服务则出现下滑。蒙得维的亚商 业活动增长2.4%，而内陆地区仅增长1.1%。70%的企业下降或停滞，中小企业受影响最大，只有大企业维持了温和增 长。 （原标题：乌拉圭商业连续六季度增长） ...

2025大连秋季购房节上，市民购房热情高涨。据统计，秋季购房节首日线下观展量达到2.2万人次，线上观展量达28万人次，认购量214套、2.5万平方米。本 次秋季房交会主题为"金秋惠购房，乐享美好家"，既为消费者线上线下同步提供了一站式选房、看房、购房平台，又创新打造了一场文体与房产深度融合的 体验活动。 首日购房节现场人头攒动。去年以来，我市充分释放房地产政策工具箱，从土地保障、加大金融信贷和公积金贷款支持力度、落实税收优惠政 策、全面解除限购限售、购房补贴、人才"购房券"等方面出台系列政策措施，支持刚性和改善性购房需求，政策端已是近年来最利好时期。 本次购房节还 首次设立线上保障性租赁住房专属展区，租购同展，充分满足市民多样化用房需求。9月12日至30日，线上房展期间同时举办辽宁省第四届房产·家居联动促 销活动。 下班后来观展的市民张硕说："房交会期间买房最划算，政府出台的政策补贴力度大，展会也有各种优惠，我一定要抓住这个好机会。"为方便上 班族、年轻家庭参展，展会连续三天增设夜场至21时。 半岛晨报、39度视频记者岳宇艳 ...

以下文章来源于深蓝财经 ，作者深蓝财经 深蓝财经 . 影响价值圈层！创立于2011年，关注中国最具价值公司，是新中产的财富顾问。 作者： 王鑫 来源： 深蓝财经 9月11日，A股科技板块继续狂飙，万亿市值的工业富联创出历史新高，市场惊呼"科技才是第一生产 力"。 有意思的是，不光是股民这么想， 连房企都拼命想挤进AI时代 ——老牌地产企业万通发展，就因 一次跨界收购，摇身一变成为资本市场"新贵"。 一边是AI与新质生产力带来的财富效应，一边是白酒、地产等传统板块被调侃为"老登资产"，资本 市场的风向变化，清晰折射出时代的更迭。 面对行业困局，房企的出路大致几种：有的如恒大黯然退市，有的如万科靠国资驰援苦撑，还有一 些则果断转型求生。 ---------------------------------- 例如格力地产已更名为"珠免集团"转向免税消费，华远地产更名为"华远控股"发力轻资产运营。而 万通发展，则选择了眼下的大热门 路径—— 跨界科技 。 该公司近期以8.54亿元成功收购芯片企业数渡科技62.98%的股权，被市场喻为"中国版博通"的数 渡，主营业务正是当前大热的PCIe5.0高速交换芯片。消息一出，万 ...

来源：郭一鸣- 本周 A 股实现标志性突破，上证指数盘中突破3888.60 点，不仅刷新年内新高，更成功突破前期震荡整 理平台，深证成指、创业板指同步走高形成上涨共振，市场做多情绪阶段性释放。不过，随着美联储降 息窗口临近、国内关键经济数据将公布，市场仍处于强势震荡阶段，短期需警惕双向波动，中期向好趋 势未改。 板块影响上，若降息符合预期且偏鸽，半导体、AI 算力等科技成长股（受益行业高景气）及保险、地 产等利率敏感型板块或继续上冲；若不及预期，前期透支宽松预期的高估值科技股与受净息差压力的银 行板块或率先回调。 一、指数突破背后：强震特征未改 沪指突破 3888 点关键阻力位时，成交量维持2.5 万亿元附近，标志市场暂时摆脱区间束缚，但突破后尾 盘冲高回落，3900点整数关口附近解套盘与获利盘抛压显现。同时，机构资金、游资活跃度有所下降， 叠加企业股票回购进入静默期，资金推动力短期承压，说明市场未进入 "单边上涨" 阶段。 技术面看，主要指数沿周线 MA5 均线稳步上行，中期上升趋势明确；但日线级别需警惕量能断层风 险，若后续成交量无法持续放大，MACD 红柱可能缩短，前期积累的超买压力或引发技术性回调，" ...

图文无关 这几年，房地产的变化，想必大家也是有目共睹的。过去驱动房地产市场发展的因素都在发生了巨大的 变化，这样意味着房地产市场将迎来大变天。 据公开数据查询到，国内的城镇化率在近10多年是呈现快速发展的态势，即由2014年的55.75%增长至 2024年的67%，年均增长约1.1个百分点。以国内目前的人口基数，则意味着每年有大量的农村人口转 化为城镇人口，这就为房地产市场提供了源源不断的需求来源。 不过城镇化率达到一定水平后，城镇化进程就会减缓，这是发展规律。而目前国内的城镇化率已经接近 70%了，基本上过了快速发展的阶段，慢慢将进入存量提质的阶段，这也是这次中央城市工作会议的定 调。 而实际上，最近几年的城镇化进程已经在逐渐放缓了。通过对近十年的城镇化率数据的分析，会发现最 近几年的每年城镇化率增长是低于1%，像2024年末的城镇化率仅比2023年末提升了0.84个百分点，明 显低于2014年到2024年的平均值，基本上呈现是前高后低的态势。 而与此同时，从2022年起，国内总人口也开启了负增长。目前已经连续负增长了3年，2022年-2024年， 总人口分别减少了85万人、208万人和139万人。一般来说 ...