凤凰网财经《IPO观察哨》出品 包心鱼丸、小酥肉、手抓饼、火山石烤肠.....这些在海底捞、盒马里随处可见的寻常美食，捧出了一家规模百亿的速冻食品巨头——安井食品集团股份有限 公司（下文简称"安井食品"） 近期，安井食品正式向港交所递交了上市申请，计划实现A+H双重上市，期望于通过布局海外市场，消除速冻食品市场的增长疲软现象。 然而，相比于业绩放缓等问题，安井食品真正的隐忧在于，上市以来其通过资本市场敛积了76亿元资金的同时，控股股东与核心高管已减持套现超50亿 元，叠加其背后资本圈隐秘的股权腾挪，不禁给投资者带来不安：此番港股上市，安井食品的掌舵人是否将其视为新一轮的"抽血"机会？ 01 安井食品的前世今生 作为预制菜品的龙头企业，安井食品是A股市场上少有的所有权与经营权分隔的企业，外界曾戏称老板找了一堆聪明人给自己"打工"，如董事长刘鸣鸣、 总经理张青苗、副总经理黄建联、副总经理黄清松等人，在安井食品任职已有20年左右。 可以说，将安井食品从偏安于福建省一隅的地域性品牌，发展成百亿收入的全国性龙头，这些"老人"功不可没。然而，与稳定的经营人员相比，安井食品 的控股股东则"动荡"得多。 回溯历史，安井食品的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the white wine sector as it is expected to clear and stabilize, with gradual improvements in the mass market [1]. Core Insights - The white wine sector is currently in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvement in the second half of the year. The industry has seen risks transition from off-balance sheet channels to on-balance sheet for most listed companies, leading to a slight slowdown in payment and delivery progress in Q1. However, leading companies have largely completed their initial targets for the year [4][9]. - In the mass market, beer shows signs of marginal improvement, with standout performance in the snack category, particularly for konjac products. The dairy sector is expected to rebound in Q2 after a period of adjustment [19][25]. Summary by Sections White Wine Sector - The white wine sector is in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year. Q1 saw a slowdown in payment and delivery, but leading companies have met their initial targets [4][9]. - High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see revenue and profit growth of approximately 9% and 10%, and 4% and 3% respectively in Q1 [10][12]. - The mid-range segment is experiencing varied performance, with brands like Fenjiu and Gujing showing growth, while others like Yanghe are facing challenges [10][12]. Mass Market - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading brands like Qingdao and Yanjing achieving revenue growth of 4% and 6% respectively in Q1 [26][29]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, is performing well, with brands like Salted and Wei Long seeing significant growth [19][25]. - The dairy sector is expected to improve as inventory levels stabilize, with companies like Yili and Mengniu showing resilience [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests bottom-fishing in the white wine sector, with a focus on brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, while also recommending attention to the mass market for potential turning points in beer and dairy [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, particularly highlighting the defensive nature of mass consumer goods and the cyclical elasticity of the liquor sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a pattern of performance during systemic events, with significant downturns in 2018 and substantial recoveries in 2020, indicating resilience and potential for future growth [3][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the sector have become attractive for mid-term allocation after adjustments, with mass consumer goods showing stronger defensive characteristics and liquor companies exhibiting greater cyclical elasticity [3][4]. - Recommendations include increasing allocations to key liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as mass consumer brands such as Yili and Qingdao Beer, due to their favorable valuations and growth potential [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Event Overview - The report discusses the importance of domestic consumption and the government's focus on boosting consumer demand, especially in light of recent economic challenges [6]. 2. 2018 Review 2.1 Sector Performance - In 2018, the food and beverage sector declined by 21.95%, with a relative excess return of 8.04%, ranking third among sub-industries [17]. - The first half of 2018 saw better performance due to market consumption upgrades, while the second half was affected by trade war concerns [17]. 2.2 Changes in Performance and Valuation - Most companies in the food and beverage sector did not see significant adjustments in profit forecasts, but liquor companies experienced some upward revisions [28]. - By the end of 2018, the dynamic PE ratios for liquor companies ranged from 15-20x, while mass consumer goods were at 20-30x [29]. 3. 2020 Review 3.1 Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector surged by 84.97% in 2020, with a relative excess return of 59.07%, again ranking third among sub-industries [41]. - The sector initially lagged due to pandemic impacts but rebounded strongly as consumption patterns shifted back to normal [41]. 3.3 Changes in Performance and Valuation - By the end of 2020, many food and beverage companies saw downward adjustments in earnings forecasts, while some, like Shanxi Fenjiu and JiuGuiJiu, experienced upward revisions due to improved management and product launches [48]. - Liquor companies saw significant valuation expansions, with some exceeding 50x dynamic PE ratios by year-end [48].

Group 1 - The central economic meeting has a "preview" effect on the main sectors for the upcoming year, with most sectors showing excess performance within 20 trading days after the meeting [2][36] - The main sectors for the year need to meet both the "pre-selection" effect of the meeting and industrial logic, with communication, electronics, home appliances, and automobiles showing significant gains [2][36] - The report suggests that the AI sector and new consumption will be the main themes for the upcoming year, with a potential early performance in Q1 due to the DeepSeek catalyst [2][36] Group 2 - The report indicates that when the economic cycle is in the Plinger phase 2-4, stocks generally perform well, with a focus on the sustainability of M1 recovery as a key indicator [3][41] - The social financing pulse has shown a rebound, with new government bonds increasing year-on-year, while new RMB loans have turned negative [3][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external shocks, such as the US economic recession risk, as the AH market may continue to be revalued globally [3][41] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of the AI sector, particularly with the upcoming GTC conference and the expected launch of the GB300 series, which may significantly enhance computing performance [12] - The global data center investment is projected to reach $57 billion in 2024, driven by AI demand, with a notable increase in the share of intelligent computing centers [12] - The report suggests that the demand for computing power remains strong, with a significant reduction in vacancy rates in data centers [12] Group 4 - The report discusses the strong performance of the rare earth sector, with prices steadily rising and expectations for policy support to boost confidence [21] - The report identifies strategic opportunities in the rare earth sector, particularly for companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and leading companies in the magnetic materials field [21] - The report notes that the prices of light rare earth oxides and heavy rare earth oxides have increased, indicating a tightening supply situation [21] Group 5 - The report outlines the high demand for photovoltaic materials, with a focus on the carbon fiber sector, which is expected to see continued growth due to the expansion of the renewable energy sector [22] - The report highlights the importance of electronic materials, particularly in the context of domestic substitution trends in upstream raw materials [22] - The report suggests that the wind power sector is experiencing significant growth, with a focus on the concentrated market for wind turbine blades [22]

行业研究 板块情绪继续升温，安井食品并购推进产业整合 ——光大证券食品饮料行业周报（20250310-20250316） 要点 本周食品饮料板块涨幅明显：本周中信食品饮料指数上涨 6.24%、涨幅位居中 信一级行业第一，主要受益于发布提振消费政策的预期升温、新生儿补贴提振板 块情绪、以及资金向低估值板块切换。虽然食品饮料板块反转拐点尚未确认，但 考虑到基本面平稳/不再弱化、二季度开始进入报表低基数阶段、估值相对处于 底部以及相关利好政策催化，资本市场情绪有望持续升温、带动食品饮料板块估 值修复。 本周我们跟踪白酒、速冻食品、乳制品重点公司近况，反馈如下： 白酒：老窖强势市场动销良性，库存继续去化。本周我们跟踪泸州老窖重点市场 渠道近况，公司西南大本营市场动销反馈良性，受益于 24 年国庆后主动放松打 款要求为渠道减压、以及竞品停货，国窖库存得以去化，成都等地反馈当前库存 处于安全水平，截至目前一季度回款较去年同期仍有一定增长。25 年西南地区 作为强势市场或继续做增量，在推动经销商配合回款的同时，二季度或加大消费 者端活动推动动销。此外，特曲系列稳步增长，60 版特曲在西南地区保持良好 的发展势头，预计未来仍 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has signed a share purchase agreement to acquire 70% of Jiangsu Dingwei Thai Food Co., Ltd. for 444.5 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its product and channel synergies [7] - The acquisition target complements the company's existing product lines and distribution channels, particularly in high-end hot pot ingredients and frozen baked goods [7] - The company's fundamentals are stabilizing, and its valuation has reached a bottom, with the acquisition acting as a catalyst for future growth [7] - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 1.43 billion, 1.62 billion, and 1.83 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -3.0%, +13.3%, and +12.6% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 14.05 billion yuan in 2023 to 17.96 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.93% [1][8] - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 1.48 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.83 billion yuan in 2026, with a notable growth in 2025 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 5.04 yuan in 2024 to 6.23 yuan in 2026 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.46 in 2023 to 13.31 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The company plans to acquire 70% of Dingwei Thai for 444.5 million yuan, aiming to enhance product expansion and industry integration [1] - The acquisition is expected to strengthen the company's frozen food business, promote brand mid-to-high-end positioning, and enrich sales channels [1] - Dingwei Thai is a leading domestic cod fish product company with a 2023 sales revenue of 512 million yuan and an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons [2] - The company has a diverse channel layout covering restaurants, supermarkets, convenience stores, and exports, with partnerships with major brands [3] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 15.239 billion, 17.120 billion, and 19.005 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.441 billion, 1.615 billion, and 1.792 billion yuan [3][5] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 14.045 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 1.478 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 34.2% [5] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 5.04 yuan for 2023, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to gradually recover, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye showing strong growth potential [3][4] - The report highlights structural opportunities within the industry, particularly in high-end and real estate liquor segments [16] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Investment Recommendations - Luzhou Laojiao's market scale reached a new high, with expectations for steady growth in 2024 [21] - Wuliangye announced a 2025 investment plan of 2.586 billion yuan across 19 projects, focusing on ecological brewing and smart logistics [22] - Jinshiyuan aims to expand its market share in the 100-500 yuan price range while maintaining operational quality [23] - Red Flower Liquor introduced a new promotional campaign to enhance consumer engagement [24] - Guizhou Zhenjiu launched a limited edition product to celebrate its 50th anniversary, emphasizing premium quality [25] Market Performance Review - The SW Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.74%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.65 percentage points [34] - The white liquor sector saw a 1.53% increase, while other liquor categories also performed positively [34] Industry Important Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the white liquor sector, noting a production decline of 7.6% year-on-year in December 2024 [47] - The beer sector experienced a 12.2% year-on-year increase in production in December 2024 [49] Investment Suggestions - Recommendations include focusing on high-demand segments and structural opportunities in white liquor, with specific companies highlighted such as Luzhou Laojiao and Jinshiyuan [16] - For beer, companies like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer are suggested due to their clear product optimization trends [16] - In soft drinks, East Peng Beverage is noted for its steady national expansion [16] - The report also emphasizes the potential in frozen food and snack sectors, recommending companies like Anjixin and Qianwei Central Kitchen [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to gradually recover, supported by resilient operations and structural opportunities within the industry [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, Anhui's large-scale liquor enterprises achieved revenue of 37.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with total profits reaching 12.77 billion yuan, up 13.2% [4][21] - The liquor industry in Lüliang aims for a revenue target exceeding 70 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on enhancing production capacity and quality [4][22] - The Sichuan liquor group targets a revenue of 40 billion yuan in 2025, emphasizing innovation and brand development [5][22] - Xishui aims for a liquor output value exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2025, continuing to strengthen its position as a major liquor production base [6][23] Key Company Performances - Qiaqia Food reported a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 4.79%, driven by high-end products [7][24] - Budweiser Asia Pacific's 2024 revenue was approximately 45.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0%, with a notable decline in the Chinese market [10][25] - Dongpeng Beverage launched a new product "Fruit Tea" aimed at the lower-tier market, reflecting a growing demand for cost-effective, large-packaged beverages [11][26] Investment Recommendations - For liquor, focus on companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Jiuzi Liquor, and others that cater to both high-end and real estate segments [16][30] - In the beer sector, consider Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer for their product optimization and market expansion strategies [16][30] - For soft drinks, Dongpeng Beverage and Bai Run Co. are recommended for their national expansion and clear product matrix [16][30] - In the frozen food segment, companies like Anji Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen are highlighted for their potential growth [16][31] - For snacks, attention is drawn to Salted Fish and Qiaqia Food for their channel expansion and performance recovery [16][31]

以下文章来源于天天IPO ，作者吴琼 天天IPO . 投资界（PEdaily.cn）旗下，专注IPO动态 剑指出海。 作者 I 吴琼 餐桌上的火锅丸子要IPO了。 投资界-天天IPO获悉，近日安井食品集团股份有限公司（简称"安井食品"）正式向港交 所递交上市申请，计划"A+H"双重上市。 时间回到20 01年，河南老乡刘鸣鸣下海创业，在厦门成立安井食品。二十多年间，安井 食品成长为全国速冻食品巨头，其生产的牛肉丸、鱼丸、小酥肉等食品，更是遍布全国 各大商超，成为一代人的餐桌记忆。 20 17年，安井食品成功在上交所上市，最新市值超20 0亿。这一次，刘鸣鸣再次叩响港 交所大门。 河南老师转行卖鱼丸 又要敲钟了 安井食品的故事，要从一位河南老乡说起。 出生于河南郑州，刘鸣鸣后来考上同济大学，毕业后被分配到郑州工业大学当老师。彼 时正值下海潮，于是做了两年教师后，他决定放弃安稳的生活，投身商界。 其中一段在外企的工作经历，让他看到国外的超市和大卖场中，速冻食品已如家常便 饭，但在国内却还并不多见。察觉到其中的商机，刘鸣鸣决心创业。 报道 I 投资界-天天IPO 20 01年，刘鸣鸣在福建厦门创办了华顺民生（即安井 ...