1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the market is expected to improve, but the industry is still weak. Unilateral strategies can adopt a volatile mindset, and hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled. [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the fundamentals continue to be under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline despite policy support. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market may start restocking after the futures rebound. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - For iron ore, the price has fallen back after hitting a resistance level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel - Weekend spot prices fluctuated little with light trading volume. The macro liquidity is abundant, and the commodity capital rotation logic remains valid. The iron ore price rose first, causing the basis to weaken and attracting cash-and-carry arbitrage. The iron production is increasing, and the pressure on plate destocking persists. The price has support at low levels. [2] - Strategies include using a range-bound approach for unilateral trading, rolling hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage, or using options to assist in spot procurement and sales. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market sentiment is changeable, leading to significant price fluctuations. The demand is affected by poor steel prices and low mill profits, and it is difficult to improve in the off-season. The supply is high despite low alloy plant profits. There are policy supports and cost pressures, but the outlook is uncertain. [3] - Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has shifted from a fifth-round price cut expectation to a 1 - 2 round price increase expectation. The futures market rose on Wednesday due to supply-side news. The long-term coal supply is expected to optimize. The industry data is weak in the off-season, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. [7] Iron Ore - The price fell after hitting a resistance level due to the resonance of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and there is inventory pressure. The steel demand has slightly declined, and the overall fluctuation is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines. [7] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On January 9th, the closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of far-month and near-month contracts of various products (such as RB2610, HC2610) are provided, along with cross-month spreads, price differences, and profit margins. [1] - Spot: On January 9th, the spot prices and price changes of various products (such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar) in different regions are presented, as well as basis values. [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - The spot demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, focus on the impact of policies on the demand expectation of steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. Steel production cuts are significant, with limited downward driving force, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upside space for prices. The upside elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore is shifting towards a situation of both weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is constrained by high inventories, while the downside is supported by the expectation of steel mills' restocking. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a state of loose supply - demand to one of weak supply - demand. During the off - season, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the supply adjustment lags behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure, but the start - up rate is rising. The demand side sees an increase in iron - making water production and a rebound in steel prices at low levels. In terms of inventory, ports and steel mills are accumulating inventory, while coking plants are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. For coking coal, the supply side has a slight increase in daily production after the new year, and imports are recovering. The demand side has a stable increase in iron - making water production, and the restocking demand is warming up. The overall inventory is also slightly increasing at a medium level. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and there is support on the demand side. In the short term, focus on macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. Manganese ore provides price support, and there is also support from off - season demand. Follow - up attention should be paid to the reduction in ferromanganese production and the restocking expectations of steel mills for raw materials during the year - end winter storage. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is to operate within the range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the May contract of rebar fell from 3187 yuan to 3144 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 12 yuan, and the profit of North China rebar increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average iron - making water production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. Rebar production increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.0 to 32.8, a 6.6% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44. to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders slightly increased, and the basis of the May contract for some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The May contract of coke decreased by 17 to 1748, a 1.0% decrease. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal increased by 33 to 1213, a 2.8% increase. The May contract of coking coal increased by 6 to 1196, a 0.5% increase. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 26 to 484, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory increased by 0.2 to 915.7, a 0.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 19.2 to 1071.7, a 1.8% increase, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese generally declined. The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, while the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, while the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 8.5 to 6236.3, a 0.1% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 55.89 to - 139.7 [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 32.2 to 117.4, a 37.8% increase, the arrival volume increased by 19.1 to 669, a 46.8% increase, and the ore - removal volume increased by 8.8 to 64.5, a 15.8% increase. The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 7.9 to 438.9, a 1.8% decrease [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.1 to 29.6, a 0.34% increase, and the ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.1 to 18, a 1.9% decrease, and the ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.1 to 11.6, a 0.74% increase [7]. Inventory Change - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the trends in China's iron ore industry, indicating a slight increase in production for November 2025, while the cumulative production for the year shows a decline compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production reached 83.03 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [1]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of iron ore in China was 923.62 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.8% compared to the same period in the previous year [1]. Group 2: Companies Mentioned - The report lists several companies involved in the iron ore sector, including Hebei Iron and Steel Resources, Hainan Mining, Jinling Mining, Dazhong Mining, Western Mining, Ansteel, Taiyuan Iron and Steel, Baotou Steel, Benxi Steel, and Jiuquan Iron and Steel [1]. Group 3: Research and Analysis - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports and tailored consulting services [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news for each commodity, along with short - term and medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions [2][10][30]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. Market sentiment has been affected by factors such as the US economic data and geopolitical tensions [2][6]. - **Silver**: It is testing new highs again. Both domestic and international silver prices have risen significantly, with strong performance in the night - trading session [2][6]. - **Platinum**: ETF holdings have continued to flow out, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [2][25]. - **Palladium**: After rising to a high, the price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has increased. The production of a major copper smelter has increased, and the US economic data has also had an impact on the market [2][10]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly. The inventory has decreased, and the price has been supported [2][13]. - **Lead**: The overseas inventory has decreased, which supports the price [2][16]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating and strengthening. The inventory has decreased, and the price has shown an upward trend [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has significantly moved up. The prices of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have all shown different degrees of increase [2][22]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has lifted the oscillation center, and the market is gaming the Indonesian policy [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has fermented, and the short - term international energy prices may be strong, which has an impact on related products such as methanol and fuel oil [98][99]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The geopolitical conflict and the expected improvement of port inventory support the price, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [99]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to correct in the short term but remain strong in the medium term. The agricultural demand provides support [103][104]. - **PTA**: It is unilaterally strong. The future supply and demand are expected to be weak, but the current low - inventory de - stocking situation supports the price [65]. - **MEG**: It is short - term strong in a rebound. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price has support at a low level [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The raw material prices of tires have risen, which has affected the cost and profit of the tire industry [67][71]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is oscillating at a high level. The raw material price and inventory have an impact on the market [73][74]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The market is affected by factors such as raw materials and demand [76][77]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The market is affected by cost and demand [79][80]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory [81][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends [86][89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price has shown minor fluctuations [92][93]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related**: The price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as the US USDA report and Chinese procurement. The market is waiting for the release of the report [160][162]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies [163][165]. - **Sugar**: It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The global sugar supply and demand situation and import and export policies have an impact on the market [167][168]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The cotton spot price has declined slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [172][173]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [176]. - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hogs has shown minor fluctuations [179]. - **Peanuts**: It is oscillating. The spot price of peanuts has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand [182][183]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It may be strong in a short - term oscillation. The 02 long positions and 04 short positions should be reduced appropriately. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and policies [126][135].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided Summary by Related Catalog Spot Market - Newman powder price is 814, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 9, and its import profit is 11.35 [1] - PB powder price is 822, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - Mac powder price is 824, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14, and its import profit is 45.15 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 775, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14, and its import profit is 37.25 [1] - Mixed powder price is 756, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 16, and its import profit is -1.51 [1] - Super special powder price is 701, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 21, and its import profit is -0.71 [1] - Carajás powder price is 915, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 30, and its import profit is -13.68 [1] - Brazilian blend price is 863, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 5, and its import profit is 5.29 [1] - IOC6 Brazilian coarse powder price is 786, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - SSFG Brazilian coarse powder price is 791, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 907, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 29 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 764, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 907, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 25 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 809, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14, and its import profit is 51.24 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 881, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 636, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 21 [1] - Atlas powder price is 751, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 976, with a daily change of -6 and a weekly change of -6 [1] Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 852.0, with a daily change of -6.0 and a weekly change of 47.0, and its monthly spread is -59.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 814.5, with a daily change of 1.5 and a weekly change of 25.0, and its monthly spread is 37.5 [1] - i2609 contract price is 793.0, with a daily change of 1.0 and a weekly change of 24.5, and its monthly spread is 21.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 107.85, with a daily change of -1.00 and a weekly change of 2.30, and its monthly spread is -3.01 [1] - FE05 contract price is 106.76, with a daily change of -1.19 and a weekly change of 2.50, and its monthly spread is 1.09 [1] - FE09 contract price is 104.84, with a daily change of -1.17 and a weekly change of 2.53, and its monthly spread is 1.92 [1]

Group 1: Steel Market Overview - Rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week-on-week to 1.9104 million tons, but decreased by 83,700 tons year-on-year [3][16] - Social inventory of rebar rose by 75,200 tons week-on-week to 2.9018 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21,300 tons [3][16] - Factory inventory of rebar increased by 85,600 tons week-on-week to 1.4793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 223,900 tons [3][16] - Rebar demand fell by 25,480 tons week-on-week to 1.7496 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 150,900 tons [3][16] - Overall supply and demand data for rebar is weak, with inventory entering an accumulation phase [3][16] Group 2: Hot Rolled Coil Market - Hot rolled coil production increased by 10,000 tons week-on-week to 3.0551 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16,200 tons [4][17] - Social inventory of hot rolled coil rose by 21,700 tons week-on-week to 2.9081 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 580,600 tons [4][17] - Factory inventory of hot rolled coil decreased by 50,000 tons week-on-week to 773,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1,700 tons [4][17] - Demand for hot rolled coil fell by 24,300 tons week-on-week to 3.0834 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 72,500 tons [4][17] Group 3: Iron Ore Market - Iron water production increased by 20,700 tons week-on-week to 2.296 million tons [5][18] - Global iron ore shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, with Australia shipping 19.396 million tons, down 1.741 million tons week-on-week [5][18] - Port inventory of imported iron ore rose by 3.2265 million tons week-on-week to 170.4444 million tons [5][18] - Steel mill inventory of imported iron ore increased by 430,000 tons, mainly in North China, East China, and along the Yangtze River [5][18] Group 4: Coke Market - Coke prices in various regions decreased by 50-55 yuan/ton, while some prices increased by 30 yuan/ton [7][20] - Demand for coke remains weak, with rebar demand falling significantly [7][20] - Independent coke enterprises increased daily production by 850 tons, while steel mills' daily coke production increased by 50 tons [7][20] - Total coke inventory increased by 2,200 tons, with independent coke enterprises reducing inventory by 45,300 tons [7][20] Group 5: Scrap Steel Market - Scrap steel prices increased by 9.6 yuan/ton to 2,187.4 yuan/ton [9][22] - Daily average scrap steel arrival at steel mills decreased to 476,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,600 tons [10][23] - Scrap steel demand fell, with daily consumption decreasing to 505,000 tons [10][23] - Long-process steel mills' scrap steel inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 3.16 million tons [10][23] Group 6: Ferroalloy Market - Manganese silicon production decreased by 1.39% week-on-week to 191,000 tons [11][24] - Demand for manganese silicon remains limited, with major northern steel mills not actively purchasing [11][24] - Inventory levels remain high, with a week-on-week decrease of 11,000 tons to 382,500 tons [11][24] Group 7: Silicon Iron Market - Silicon iron production increased by 0.2% week-on-week to 99,100 tons, remaining at a five-year low [12][25] - Demand for silicon iron is limited, with consumption levels at historical lows [12][25] - Inventory increased by 4,550 tons week-on-week to 68,910 tons [12][25]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月12日08时26分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量回升，整体库存继续回落，螺纹表观需求有所下降，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量小幅回升。 由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且市场整体处于消费淡季，钢厂产量仍有可能延续下降的趋势 。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间 才能到来，股市强势上攻以及政策面的乐观预期提振信心 ， 但市场监管总局约谈光伏协会及相关企业导致对 "反内卷"预期有所回落，对市场情绪有 一定影响。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The latest inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate. With the weakening demand, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, especially for rebar and wire rods. The supply pressure is gradually rising as steel mills resume production with the repair of profits. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased significantly, and the terminal consumption will continue to decline in the off - season. The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery trend, while the downstream construction consumption weakens. The supply - demand contradiction in the industry will gradually accumulate. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate mainly due to the support of macro - policies and cost, but the weak demand still suppresses the market [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas iron ore shipments have slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited incremental shipments in the first quarter due to seasonal factors. However, the previous shipments have turned into domestic arrivals, and the port inventory still has the pressure of accumulation, with the current port inventory reaching a new high in recent years. On the demand side, the molten iron output continues to rise in the short term, and steel mills continue to replenish stocks slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the market expects that the winter storage replenishment of steel mills may accelerate, providing some support for the ore price in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies Rebar - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products starts to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8]. - **Supply**: As steel profits recover, some steel mills resume production, molten iron output rises, and finished product output increases slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products declines, terminal consumption weakens in the off - season, and speculative demand is limited [8]. - **View**: The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery, while demand weakens, and the supply - demand contradiction accumulates. The steel price is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments have decreased, while domestic arrivals have increased. From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10]. - **Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of 247 steel mills have increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continues to increase, and the steel mill inventory has also increased [10]. - **View**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment of steel mills provides short - term support for the ore price [10]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of iron ore is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [10]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, the RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3144 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3294 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar main - contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton [23]. 3.3 Demand Side - The apparent consumption and trading volume of steel products are presented in relevant charts, showing the consumption and trading situation of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased [12]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. is presented in relevant charts. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8][12]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Steel Output**: The output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, etc. is presented in relevant charts. With the recovery of steel profits, the output of finished products has increased slightly [8][12]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is presented in relevant charts, with the profitability rate of 247 steel mills at 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44% compared with the previous week [10][12]. - **Blast Furnace Steel Mill**: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [10][12]. - **Electric Arc Furnace Steel Mill**: The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric furnaces are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [12]. - **Molten Iron and Scrap Steel**: The molten iron output and scrap steel consumption are presented in relevant charts, with the molten iron output increasing [12]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Global Shipment**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10][145]. - **Australia - Brazil Shipment**: The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2666.5 tons, a decrease of 317.2 tons compared with the previous period. Australian shipments decreased by 165.7 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 151.5 tons [10][149]. - **Arrival Volume**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 tons, an increase of 155.0 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1512.9 tons, an increase of 182.3 tons [10][162]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17044.44 tons, an increase of 322.65 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of steel mills also increased [10][166]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory of national steel mills was 8989.59 tons, an increase of 43.05 tons compared with the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore increased, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased [10][182].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The pricing of iron ore has deviated from supply - demand fundamentals, and is strongly supported by macro factors. Although overseas supply has weakened marginally and domestic demand has rebounded, the pricing of black commodities and iron ore is still driven by the upward macro risk appetite and capital's pursuit of commodities. In the short - term, supported by macro expectations, iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: At the beginning of the year, shipments and freight rates of mainstream mines have both declined. There are also news disturbances regarding the acceptance of Jinbuba ore and the pricing indices used by Rio Tinto and FMG at the beginning of the year. For example, global shipments were 3213.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463.4 million tons; Australian shipments were 1874.0 million tons, a decrease of 165.7 million tons; Brazilian shipments were 792.5 million tons, a decrease of 151.5 million tons [4][5][16]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Shipments from Ukraine are expected to resume in 2026 according to shipping schedules. Shipments from countries like India, Peru, Canada, and South Africa also show different trends [20]. - **Domestic Mines**: After the New Year's Day, the operation rate in the southwest region has significantly increased [29]. 3.2 Demand - **Downstream Demand**: The marginal change in downstream demand is small, generally in line with market expectations. There may be a pre - Spring Festival restocking drive, and the molten iron output has rebounded on a week - on - week basis. The 247 - enterprise molten iron output was 229.50 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons [5][32]. - **Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel**: The price trends of iron ore and scrap steel have diverged again, and the scrap - iron price difference continues to narrow [35]. 3.3 Inventory Port inventories remain at a high level. The 45 - port imported ore inventory was 16275.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 304.4 million tons [4][39]. 3.4 Downstream Profits The futures market profits of downstream products continue to be weak [43]. 3.5 Spot Category Price Differences The price of imported PB fines remains relatively strong [47]. 3.6 Futures Market Spreads - **Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the market is still waiting for a driving force to widen [51]. - **Basis**: The basis has weakened and returned to the level of the same period last year [56]. 3.7 Contract Performance The price performance of the main 05 contract remains strong, closing at 820.50 yuan/ton. The open interest was 639,900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 46,500 lots; the average daily trading volume was 341,300 lots, a week - on - week increase of 6,400 lots [9]. 3.8 Spot Price Performance The prices of medium - grade iron ore have shown strength again. For example, the price of PB fines in Qingdao Port increased from 802 yuan/ton last week to 826 yuan/ton this week [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment drove the mid - week rally of black - series commodities. The upside of iron ore prices is constrained by high inventory and expectations of loose supply, while the downside is supported by restocking expectations. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels. The subsequent focus should be on steel mills' restocking and hot metal production rhythms. As overseas shipments enter the off - season and hot metal production resumes, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve marginally. However, market sentiment has entered an unstable stage, increasing volatility risks, so operations should be cautious with attention to position control [11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Global iron ore shipments totaled 3.2137 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463,400 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 2.7427 billion tons, down 316,900 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9396 billion tons, down 174,100 tons, and those to China were 1.6153 billion tons, down 252,300 tons. Brazilian shipments were 803,200 tons, down 142,700 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2.8247 billion tons, up 96,900 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2.7564 billion tons, up 155,000 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 229,500 tons, an increase of 2,070 tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 17.04444 billion tons, up 322,650 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 336,960 tons, down 3,250 tons. Port inventories continued to accumulate and were higher than the same period in previous years. Steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but remained at a low level, indicating some restocking demand [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spreads: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 125 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 80 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 139 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 22.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratios and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.66%, down 0.03 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, up 0.26 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.14%, down 0.24 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,155 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profits: The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was 14.45 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - 45 - port Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The inventory was 16.27526 billion tons, up 304,370 tons. Pellet inventory was 344,790 tons, up 2,790 tons. Iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.46277 billion tons, up 146,590 tons. Lump ore inventory was 2.11538 billion tons, down 17,650 tons. Australian ore port inventory was 7.18534 billion tons, up 98,190 tons. Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.6639 billion tons, up 92,650 tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mills' Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.98959 billion tons, up 43,050 tons from last week [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China via 19 ports was 1.5538 billion tons, down 248,500 tons week - on - week. Brazilian shipments were 792,500 tons, down 151,500 tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 549,900 tons, down 146,400 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 496,400 tons, down 17,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 562,500 tons, down 72,700 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 276,600 tons, down 158,100 tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival and Non - mainstream Imports: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.7564 billion tons, up 155,000 tons week - on - week. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 1.90041 billion tons, down 84,500 tons month - on - month [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 58.41%, up 2.96 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 45,650 tons, up 2,320 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average hot metal output was 229,500 tons, up 2,070 tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mills' Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 323,270 tons, down 1,940 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 283,280 tons, up 2,610 tons week - on - week [73]. 3.6 Basis As of January 9, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 50.27 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.81% [78].