Market Dynamics and Sentiment - A-shares experienced a downward adjustment, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline by 0.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.47%, and the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07%. The market turnover decreased to 1.07 trillion yuan, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment [2] - The major indices in the US showed mixed performance, with technology stocks generally declining, including a nearly 4% drop in Google, while Apple rose over 2%. Chinese concept stocks displayed a mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.92% [2] Policy and Major Events - The US imposed tariffs on steel household appliances starting June 23, leading to a collective adjustment in the Asia-Pacific stock market. Concerns arose regarding the profit pressure on appliance exporters, particularly those reliant on the North American market, prompting some companies to consider relocating production to Southeast Asia or switching to aluminum [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the June meeting, but the "dot plot" indicated a reduction in the expected rate cuts for 2025 from two to one, signaling a more hawkish stance. Trump continued to pressure for significant rate cuts, while Powell emphasized the independence of policy, leading to increased market divergence regarding the rate cut path [3] Industry Sectors and Hotspots - The PCB industry is experiencing a surge due to increased demand driven by AI servers and electric vehicles, with leading companies like Shenghong Technology having orders extending into 2026 [5] - In the consumer electronics sector, multiple factors are driving investment opportunities in the third quarter, with a focus on concepts like HarmonyOS and solid-state batteries [6] - The charging treasure safety crisis has emerged, with multiple brands facing suspension of 3C certification, and battery supplier Amperis under regulatory investigation, exposing credit risks in the industry [7] - The extension of the cobalt raw material ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo for an additional three months may elevate cobalt prices, benefiting companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tengyuan Cobalt [8] - Iran's announcement to close the Strait of Hormuz has drawn attention to the nuclear pollution prevention and oil and gas shipping concepts, with companies like Guangguang Co. and Ningbo Shipping being highlighted [9] - The National Medical Products Administration supports full lifecycle supervision of high-end medical devices, which is favorable for companies like Mindray Medical and United Imaging Medical [10] - The commercial use of humanoid robots in China is expected to reach 60,000 units by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 95.3%, benefiting companies like Tongda Power and Zhengye Technology [11] Company Dynamics and Capital Operations - China Railway Construction's 3.856 billion shares of restricted stock were unlocked on June 23, accounting for 72.29% of the total share capital, which may exert pressure on the stock price [12] - Guangting Information's 48.547 million shares of restricted stock were unlocked, representing 52.41% of the total share capital, involving four shareholders [13] - Beijing Junzheng's stock registration date is June 23, with a proposed cash dividend of approximately 48.16 million yuan [14] - Jianfa Real Estate's 670 million yuan bond was fully redeemed on June 23 [15] - Yihua Co. held an extraordinary shareholders' meeting to review the repurchase and cancellation of restricted stock and the reduction of registered capital, which may impact the company's capital structure [16]

中东局势再升级，AH 同步调整，该如何应对？ 20250622 摘要 美联储 6 月维持利率不变，但上修失业率和 PCE 预测，下修经济数据， 加剧市场对滞胀的担忧，可能导致市场交易逻辑向滞胀方向摇摆，对美 股表现持谨慎态度，美债收益率受地缘避险和降息节奏压缩影响震荡。 中东局势虽进入伊核冲突阶段，但预计不会失控。黄金市场短期受冲突 预期背离、降息预期降温及资金分流影响下跌，但长期仍具配置价值， 建议逢低定投。 5 月国内宏观经济数据回落，地产再次下行，消费和出口表现相对较好， 但消费支撑可能退潮，出口面临关税和海外需求降温压力。A 股震荡调 整，防御策略关注 AI、军工及稳健行业。 港股受港币触及弱方保证、地缘政治不确定性和美联储政策影响调整， 关注银行、公用事业等防御性投资，留意 AI 和军工等产业催化机会。 债券市场收益率小幅下行，实体负债增速下降，金融部门流动性宽松但 资金空转，预计未来两周流动性收敛，建议降低仓位集中在短端。 Q&A 当前全球市场的主要风险因素有哪些？ 当前全球市场的主要风险因素包括中东局势和美联储的政策动向。中东局势方 面，美国对伊朗核设施进行了打击，标志着进入伊核冲突阶段，但由于 ...

高端装备半月谈：近期热点板块观点汇报 20250622 Q&A 2024 年和 2025 年全球 AI 领域的资本开支对 PCB 设备需求有何影响？ 2024 年和 2025 年全球围绕 AI 领域的资本开支显著拉动了 PCB 及其设备的需 求。国外方面，微软、谷歌、亚马逊和 Meta 四家公司的资本开支累计超过 3,200 亿美元，同比增幅为 31%。国内方面，字节跳动、阿里巴巴和腾讯三家 的资本开支预期累计超过 3,500 亿元，同比增幅超过 50%。国内 14 家 PCB 上市公司的收入在 2024 年同比增长 17%，净利润增长 19%，综合毛利率约 为 20%。这些公司在 2024 年的一季度收入同比改善，二季度净利润大幅改善。 PCB 设备订单从 2023 年第四季度开始出现边际改善，主要由于华为手机销量 超预期带动消费电子下游需求改善，而真正的 AI 相关资本开支则从 2024 年下 半年开始启动。预计整个 PCB 设备行业将在今年（2025 年）保持高速增长， 新签订单增幅在 50%到翻倍之间。 固态电池设备产业链预计在明后年迎来增长，2027 年部分装车。2025 年大部分大厂处于中试线阶段 ...

策略周观点：波动上升，后市如何看？20250622 摘要 港股上半年表现强劲，受益于资金回流和关税趋缓，但当前估值较高， ERP 指数较低。然而，中国资产在全球估值中仍具洼地效应，人民币升 值将增强中国股票类资产弹性，中长期仍有重估空间。 预计美联储 9 月可能首次降息，但降息幅度有限，或为应对式而非大幅 宽松。美国债务上限解决后，大规模发债可能导致实体经济流动性抽离， 美债利率上升，短期内对美股形成挤压。 港元汇率及利率对香港市场有重要影响，资金回流带动港元升值。香港 联系汇率制度透明，但 HIBOR 利率下降可能扩大套息交易空间，对港 股影响边际且局部，核心仍取决于经济基本面。 港股未来一年的核心影响因素是经济修复，目前股权风险溢价处于历史 低位，恒生指数与中美制造业 PMI 相关性高。预计今年财政力度将托举 经济，香港非金融海外中资股盈利增速或超预期。 三季度是解禁高峰期，市场波动可能较高，高股息加必须消费品配置偏 防御。若非基本面因素造成回撤，将提供增配香港核心资产空间，包括 科技、大众消费、传统消费及大金融领域。 Q&A 2025 年下半年海外市场的整体展望是什么？ 2025 年下半年，海外市场预计 ...

电子掘金：AI 算力需求火热，PCB 量价齐升 20250622 摘要 PCB 行业受益于算力需求提升，高端板材需求稳步复苏。2024 年全球 PCB 市场产值同比增长 5.8%，预计 2025 年增长 6.8%。高多层和 HDI 产品类别预计在 2025 年分别同比增长 40%和 10%以上，反映了 对 AI 算力需求的乐观预期。 AI 产业投入增加，数据中心 TAM 上修 29%至 554 亿美元。海外四大 FSP 厂商一季度资本开支同比增长 60%，Meta 上调 2025 年资本支出 至 640~720 亿美元，亚马逊增加对定制芯片的投资，国内阿里巴巴和 腾讯资本开支也显著增长。 高多层级 HDI 产品在 AI 服务器中竞争优势显著，需满足低成本、高良率 和稳定批量交付的要求。高阶 HDI 产品需控制每层误差在 20 微米以内， 生产工序复杂，对技术研发和团队经验要求高。 CCL 材料如 PTFE 适用于高速互联应用，其低介电常数和低损耗因子能 保持信号完整性，尤其适合 GPU 高速互联及高速接口。上游覆铜板市场 高端材料紧缺，建涛等 CCL 龙头已发布涨价函，玻纤布企业也发布调价 通知。 Q&A P ...

Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is experiencing a technological revolution driven by the demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, foldable phones, and robotics, leading to a significant increase in PCB demand and domestic manufacturers accelerating high-end capacity expansion [1] Group 1: AI Servers - AI servers require advanced PCBs with increased layers, leading to a cost increase of 3 times compared to traditional boards, with prices for specialized materials being over 5 times that of standard materials [2][4] - Major manufacturers like Shenghong Technology and Huadian Co. have AI server PCB orders booked until Q1 2026, with some companies operating at full capacity 24/7 [4] - The global market for high-layer PCBs (18 layers and above) is expected to grow at a rate of 41.7% by 2025 [4] Group 2: Electric Vehicles - The value of PCBs in electric vehicles has doubled, with a single vehicle's PCB value reaching 1500-2000 RMB, which is twice that of traditional fuel vehicles [5] - Advanced driving systems require 16-layer HDI boards, with prices exceeding 5000 RMB, and domestic market share for these boards has increased from 30% in 2023 to 45% [6] - The global automotive PCB market is projected to reach 9.4 billion USD by 2025, driven by the production of 77GHz radar boards for Tesla's Robotaxi [9] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - The integration level in consumer electronics is increasing, with the mainboard area of the iPhone 16 Pro reduced by 20.7% while accommodating more AI chips, thanks to SLP technology [10] - Companies like Pengding Holdings are investing significantly in expanding high-end HDI production lines, with a 50% increase in capacity at their Huai'an factory [10] - The penetration rate of HDI boards in consumer electronics is expected to exceed 35% due to the rise of AI PCs, with monthly order growth of 20% for AI PC PCBs [10] Group 4: Robotics - The demand for PCBs in the robotics sector is structurally increasing, with companies like Yushu Technology and UBTECH focusing on high-density and high-reliability PCB requirements [11] - The robotics industry is pushing for upgrades in PCB technology, indicating a broad long-term growth potential [11] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The global PCB market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029, with AI servers, 800G switches, and robotics applications driving a 3-5 percentage point increase in industry gross margins [13] - The PCB industry is currently in a dual-cycle resonance period of "technological upgrades and domestic substitution," with companies like Shenghong Technology and Shengyi Technology poised for breakthroughs in AI computing, automotive electronics, and robotics [13]

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] Marvell 上调预期，拉动海外算力链持续上涨 [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、Marvell 上调数据中心 Capex 与 ASIC 预期指引，引发海外算 力链持续上涨 美东时间 6 月 18 日，Marvell 举办 AI 投资者日，预计 2028 年 数据中心资本开支将超过一万亿美元。同时进一步上调数据中 心市场规模 2028 年预期至 940 亿美元，较 2024 年 4 月的预期 750 亿美元上调 26%，其中上调定制计算芯片（XPU 和 XPU 配套 芯片）市场规模指引 37%。 2、投资建议 算力需求在过去两年受益于算力芯片催生一波跳跃式需求增 长，受数据源限制、密度功耗、Scaling Law 效率递减等多重 因素影响下开源与闭源模型效用逐渐达到同一等级，在 DeepSeek 影响下训练算力成本大幅下降，对于主权算力以及算 力资本开支下滑的担忧不止。 尽管如此，OpenAI 其营收规模与商用付费客户也持续呈现快速 增长，包括 Ora ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.51% to close at 3359.9 points [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only a few sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and electronics saw gains, while sectors like beauty care, textiles, and medical biology faced significant declines [2] - Notably, sub-sectors like stablecoins, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and solid-state batteries showed active performance [2] Company Highlights - A total of 208 listed companies released investor research summaries, with around 50 institutions reporting positive returns. Companies like Yishijingmi and Yuanhang Precision saw weekly gains exceeding 20%, while Lin Tai New Materials and others achieved gains over 10% [2] - The electronics sector garnered the highest attention, with companies like Lexin Technology receiving over 250 institutional inquiries, and Nanjiguang hosting more than 60 [2] Nanjiguang's Performance - Nanjiguang's stock surged due to its status as the only certified backlight module supplier for Nintendo, coinciding with the impressive sales of the newly launched Switch 2, which sold over 3.5 million units within four days of release [2][4] - The successful mass production of the Switch 2 project validates Nanjiguang's core technological capabilities and quality control systems, potentially driving further orders in various sectors including gaming and automotive displays [4] PCB Market Insights - The PCB sector has shown strong performance, with CITIC PCB reporting a cumulative increase of 6% in stock prices. The market is expected to enter a new phase of capacity expansion driven by demand from emerging markets and AI technology [4] - Companies like Huidian and Shennan Circuit confirmed high capacity utilization rates, with expectations of increased demand for high-performance PCB products due to the accelerating evolution of AI technology [5] Energy Market Impact - The Middle East situation has influenced global energy market trends, with companies like Jereh and Huarong focusing on strategic market expansions in the region. Jereh plans to explore more collaboration opportunities while Huarong emphasizes the long-term nature of oil investments despite short-term price fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The PCB sector, particularly companies related to computing power and data centers, is experiencing significant activity, with notable interest from social security funds in specific companies [1]. Group 1: Company Highlights - Guanghe Technology is the leading domestic server PCB supplier in China, with products used in high-performance computing servers, AI computing servers, storage servers, and core data center equipment [3]. - Aoshikang also focuses on PCBs, with applications in data centers, servers, AIPC, communication and network devices, and automotive electronics [10]. Group 2: Fund Holdings - In the first quarter, social security funds made new investments in Guanghe Technology, acquiring approximately 500,000 shares, making it the sixth largest circulating shareholder [4]. - Aoshikang saw new investments from social security funds, with two funds becoming the eighth and ninth largest circulating shareholders [11]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Guanghe Technology has shown consistent revenue growth for eight consecutive years, with a total increase of 130% over the last five years, averaging 26% annually [7]. - The company's net profit, excluding non-recurring items, has surged from 120 million in 2020 to 678 million in 2024, reflecting a 465% increase over five years, averaging close to 100% annual growth [9]. - Aoshikang's revenue growth over five years is 55%, averaging 11% annually, which is lower compared to Guanghe Technology [13]. - Aoshikang's net profit growth is limited, with a forecast of revenue increase without profit growth in 2024, attributed to rising sales expenses [15].

Index Level - The Shanghai Composite Index is still in a downward adjustment phase, with support around the gap at 3320 [3][4] - The ChiNext Index has fallen below its short-term moving averages, indicating potential weakness [3] - Overall market sentiment is low, with a trading volume of only 1.06 trillion, down by 185.7 billion, and a net sell-off of nearly 30 billion by domestic investors [3][4] Market Conclusion - The market is expected to continue its adjustment, and any potential rebounds should be viewed as temporary [4] - Investors should avoid chasing prices and consider maintaining around 50% of their positions [4] Sector Analysis - The banking and insurance sectors are showing strength, while brokerage firms are underperforming [5] - Consumer sectors like liquor are experiencing a rebound, but sustainability is uncertain [6] - The solid-state battery sector remains active, while some technology stocks are showing strength [5] Banking Sector Insights - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to a lack of alternative investment options, with banks offering around 4% dividend yields [7] - Investors are advised to hold existing positions in banks or cautiously enter with a portion of their capital [7] Hot Sector Breakdown - CPO is in a corrective phase but maintains an upward trend, presenting potential buying opportunities [7] - PCB shows a similar upward trend despite recent fluctuations, indicating potential for speculative opportunities [7] - The storage chip sector is in a consolidation phase, requiring further observation for potential upward movements [7] Additional Sector Observations - The innovative drug sector is in its sixth day of adjustment, with a downward trend persisting [8] - Stablecoins and digital currencies are showing signs of trend reversal, necessitating caution if they break below key support levels [8] - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing a slowdown in momentum, but short-term trading opportunities may still exist [8]