A 股短期还会继续调整吗？20250622 摘要 A 股市场短期内面临基本面压力，5 月出口增速超预期回落，叠加政策 落地速度可能放缓，预计 7 月中下旬基本面压力或缓解。 A 股中报业绩存在结构性压力，部分前期盈利预期较高的新消费板块和 概念股可能面临估值下调风险。 海外地缘政治风险持续，伊核冲突等地缘风险对市场情绪构成压制，增 加了市场的不确定性。 陆家嘴论坛推出系列政策，央行和证监会分别在外汇、人民币汇率、数 字人民币、科创板等方面出台措施，对市场情绪有一定提振作用。 当前宏观环境特征为出口回落和经济弱修复，历史上类似阶段 A 股表现 偏弱，需警惕美元反弹及地缘政治对流动性的影响。 科创板和创业板放宽上市标准，有利于科技创新型企业进入资本市场， 但短期内对改变市场偏弱局面的效果有限。 短期行业配置建议均衡策略，关注科技（人工智能、机器人）和涨价品 种（有色金属、化工），以及低估值蓝筹（银行、建筑、交通运输、电 力）等防守型板块。 当前 A 股市场表现相对走弱，尤其是后半段，这符合预期。预计短期内仍将延 续震荡调整走势，主要由于导致调整的一些因素尚未完全消减。要结束调整， 需要更多积极的基本面和政策因素出 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices have risen significantly, with Brent crude increasing by 2.48% and WTI by 2.7%, both showing over 20% gains since June, primarily driven by the Israel-Iran conflict [3][5] - The oil and gas resource ETF (159309) has seen a substantial inflow of capital, with over 7 million shares net subscribed and a total of over 64 million yuan raised in the past 10 days [1][3] - Major stocks within the oil and gas ETF have experienced significant price increases, with Tongyuan Petroleum rising over 10% and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) showing a slight increase of 0.90% [3][4] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, have escalated risks in the region, with potential implications for oil supply and prices [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has indicated that while they do not foresee major supply disruptions, the risks of supply decline and price increases have risen, predicting Brent crude could reach around 90 USD per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [6][7] - The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is highlighted, as approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through it, including significant percentages of oil and gas exports [8]

金融工程 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 11.85%，相对于上周下跌了 0.88%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 14.35%，相对于上周下跌了-1.59%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 18.06%，相对于上周下跌了 0.42%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 12.64%，相 对于上周下跌了 0.73%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 6 月 9 日到 2025 年 6 月 13 日正 面信号共出现了 2699 次，未来高点平均胜率为 28.25%，负面信号出现 3525 次，未来低点平均胜率为 71.88%。 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250616-20250620） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.45%，中证 500 下跌 1.75%，中证 1000 下跌 1.74%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生香港 35 出现 看多信号，其余宽基信号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，家电、综合、通信、纺织服装、消费者服务、交通 运输、石油石化出现看多信号，其余行业信 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐靓丽 "全国向民间资本推介项目平台"数据显示，截至今年6月20日，全国向民间资本推介项目达11745个，总 投资额10.14万亿元。 多地发布重大项目清单 国家统计局日前发布的数据显示，随着一系列促进民营经济发展的政策措施落地实施，民间项目投资稳 定增长。1—5月份，民间投资同比持平。其中，民间项目投资（扣除房地产开发民间投资）同比增长 5.8%。分行业看，住宿和餐饮业民间投资增长25.3%，增速比1—4月份加快2.6个百分点；文化、体育和 娱乐业民间投资增长10.0%，增速加快2.1个百分点；基础设施民间投资增长10.0%，增速加快0.4个百分 点；制造业民间投资增长8.1%。 2025年以来，多地持续面向民间资本推介投资项目清单，鼓励和吸引民间资本参与重大项目建设。湖北 省发展改革委发布的2025年第一批面向民间资本的投资项目清单，229个项目入选，计划引入民间资本 916.7亿元，涉及光电子、新材料等重点产业领域。山西省发布的2025年第一批向民间资本推介项目名 单，共有项目60个，计划总投资622亿元，计划引入民间资本227亿元，包含产业类项目（含重点产业链 供应链项目 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 23 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大股指全线收跌，上证指数下跌 0.07%，报 3359.90 点； 深证成指下跌 0.47%，报 10,005.03 点；创业板指下跌 0.83%，报 2009.89 点。A 股两市全天成交额 1.07 万亿元人民币，南向资金净买 入 15.51 亿港元。A 股两市个股普遍下跌，超 3400 只个股下跌。申 万行业方面，交通运输、食品饮料及银行行业领涨，传媒及计算机行 业跌幅居前；概念板块方面，PET 铜箔、光刻胶概念指数涨幅居前， 可燃冰、脑机接口概念指数跌幅居前。恒生指数上涨 1.26%，恒生科 技指数上涨 0.88%；美国三大股指涨跌不一，道指上涨 0.08%，报 42,206.82 点，标普 500 指数下跌 0.22%，报 5967.84 点，纳指下跌 0.51%，报 19,447.41 点。欧洲股市主要股指普遍收涨、亚太主要股 指普遍下跌。 【重要新闻】 【中国证监会就《证券公司分 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the company TaoTao Vehicle is experiencing significant production capacity increases at its Vietnam factory, which is expected to positively impact sales growth in the U.S. market [1] - The production of electric golf carts in Vietnam is projected to reach a new high in June, with further increases starting in July [1] - The company has adequately prepared for international trade friction by establishing production capacities in Southeast Asia and the U.S., enhancing its competitiveness in the U.S. market as domestic manufacturers lose market share [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Qushi Asset Management Co., Ltd. was established in September 2015 with a registered capital of 10 million yuan [2] - The company focuses on asset management and securities investment funds, with over 90% of its employees holding master's degrees from prestigious institutions [2] - The founder, Zhang Xiuqi, is a well-known fund manager in the public fund sector, having received multiple awards for excellence in fund management [2]

中信证券：中报季的应对思路和准备 二是港股近期偏弱的原因是什么？后续是否还有机会？我们认为港元流动性收紧预期、配股以及减持的增加将 阶段性制约港股贝塔，但经历行业性动量的修正后，阿尔法机会在未来两个月将会更为凸显，尤其是在电车、 创新药和新消费领域。 三是国内价格信号相对偏弱，外资现在对中国资产的态度如何？我们认为今年迄今外资对中国资产最大的态度 变化在于关注度、耐心和长期认可度，但是短期受制于一系列因素，实际的资金流入不明显，趋势性回流需要 继续等待。 四是微盘股的下跌是否会引发系统性波动？我们认为概率很小，有了去年初的经验，不少量化产品已提前做了 风控准备，但在高估值、高拥挤度和弱基本面环境下，中报季还会继续下修估值。 五是中报季潜在的外部风险是什么？我们认为特朗普用"232调查"来替代行政令推动行业性关税落地，以及减 税法案落地后资金阶段性回流美元资产可能会对非美市场造成不利影响。 中信建投：港股调整拖累，A股赛道轮动 前期表现强势的港股新消费和创新药板块，近期出现较明显调整，带动A股相关板块也出现较大波动，目前港 股流动性和风险偏好均受到冲击，可能仍将持续一段时间。内部基本面延续内需偏弱+结构性景气的 ...

量化周报 市场整体风险较低 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 择时观点：市场整体风险较低。当下流动性保持上行趋势，分歧度保持下行 趋势，景气度保持上行趋势，ERP 保持极值状态，三维择时框架继续满仓。从技 术形态来看，上涨波段的中断减弱了短期内突破的可能性，但整体回调表现出缩 量特征且未突破前期低点，并且不远处有支撑，整体风险较低。 ➢ 指数监测：国证信创大幅流入。通过对同一指数对应的 ETF 规模进行合并并 剔除涨跌幅影响，我们计算了各指数 ETF 产品总体申购/赎回份额情况。近 1 周 ETF 产品申购流入增速快的有：国证信创、港股通医药、中证信创、科创 AI、国 证油气。近 1 周国证信创、深证红利、中证信创、国证价值、细分机械份额流出 最多。 ➢ 资金共振：推荐交通运输，石油石化，电子与非银行金融。我们监控两融与 大单资金的共振情绪，选择两类资金都看好的行业。两融资金流上周在医药中净 流入最多，净流入 12 亿元；大单资金上周在银行中净流入最多，净流入 22.2 亿 元。根据融资融券净流入与主动大单资金的净流入情况，本周推荐交通运输，石 油石化，电子与非银行金融。 ➢ 因子跟踪：估值和成长因子表现 ...

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 6 月 22 日 如何看近期转债信用面变动 ➢ 如何看近期转债信用面变动 近期进入转债评级调整的密集披露期，若转债评级被下调个券卖压或增强；但评级调整 期结束后，未被评级下调的弱资质转债，若25年信用出现一定的优化，那么债底的修复 或支撑转债价格上升；我们认为转债6月-7月信用挖掘策略具有较强的性价比，投资者 一方面需要跟踪转债评级下调的可能，另一方面跟踪近期个券财务情况边际变化，预测 个券25年信用的变动方向。我们认为转债评级主要评估24年的财务变动和信用情况，通 过定量和定性的分析得到最新的评级结果，但是转债信用挖掘的预期差在于个券25年及 未来信用情况的定价，这方面评级结果解释力度或相对有限。 我们构建了转债信用评分模型，跟踪转债25年Q1的信用情况变动，观察哪些转债在财务 指标和信用资质上有边际优化，通过个券的信用变动分析中观行业层面的信用变动。转 债信用评分模型与转债信用评级互为补充，为投资者分析转债近期信用变动情况和构建 信用挖掘策略提供参考。 信用评分共包含6个维度：规模水平、营运能力、盈利能力、景气度、杠 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China remains in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio unchanged. The large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs and the probability of large - scale defaults and liquidity risks [2]. - The current loose money - market conditions are difficult to sustain, and the peak of the current round of money - market conditions is expected to occur between June 23 and July 4 [2][7]. - The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [6][22][23]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In May 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.9%, slightly lower than the previous value of 9.0%. It is expected to reach its peak in April, decline to around 8.8% in June, and then gradually decline to around 8% by the end of the year [2][17]. - The money - market conditions of the financial sector were marginally stable and slightly loose last week. Given the marginal de - leveraging of the real sector, the loose money - market conditions are unlikely to continue [2][17]. - The net reduction of government bonds last week was 316 billion yuan, lower than the planned net increase of 218.6 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 575.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of May, expected to rise slightly above 15% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [3][18]. Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume and price of funds increased, and the term spread widened. After adjusting for seasonal effects, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose [3][18]. - The yield of one - year Treasury bonds decreased to 1.36% at the end of the week. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [3][18]. Asset Side - In May, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to April. The government's target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to further observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose, but risk appetite continued to decline. Funds flowed more towards short - term bonds, resulting in a continued "bearish stocks, bullish bonds" situation with a value - dominant style [6][21]. - The yields of short - term and long - term bonds declined slightly. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, the one - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.36%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.52 percentage points last week and has outperformed it by 6.45 percentage points since July, with a maximum drawdown of 0.0% [6]. - The report recommends a portfolio of 40% dividend index, 40% SSE 50 index, and 20% 30 - year Treasury bond ETF [7][23]. 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - The A - share market declined with lower trading volume this week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66% [27]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases, while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [27]. 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 20, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, power equipment, machinery and equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, steel, coal, and building materials [29]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were electronics, power equipment, communications, machinery and equipment, and computers, while the top five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, automobiles, and textile and apparel [29]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased from 1.37 trillion yuan last week to 1.22 trillion yuan this week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, electronics, computers, and public utilities [30]. 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [34]. - As of June 20, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [35]. 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 8% week - on - week [39]. - In terms of domestic demand, second - hand housing prices declined in the latest week, and quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways increased, and the capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a slight rebound in May and continued to rise slightly in June [39]. 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of June (June 16 - 20), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 0.4%, - 0.2%, - 0.6%, and - 1.2% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell 0.45% [53]. - As of June 20, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.41 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equity to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are generally expected to have the characteristics of non - expansion, good earnings, and survival [8][23][57]. - The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9][57].