Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of nearly 3% in the Cathay Innovation Drug ETF (517110) presents a potential opportunity for investment in Chinese raw material pharmaceutical companies, which are expected to strengthen their competitive advantages [1]. Industry Summary - China's pharmaceutical and healthcare product export value is projected to grow by 3.14% by 2025, with a slight decrease of 0.27% in the export value of Western medicine raw materials [1]. - The stability in raw material drug exports reflects the competitiveness of China's raw material pharmaceutical industry amidst global trade changes and internal price competition [1]. - The outlook for 2026 indicates continued uncertainty in raw material trade, driven by price competition and advancements in synthetic biology and new production technologies that lower unit costs [1]. - Upgrades in technology are enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese raw material pharmaceutical companies [1]. - A trend of supply clearing is ongoing, with some product prices continuing to decline; however, the potential for significant further price drops is limited compared to historical averages [1]. - Price competition pressures are beginning to impact the profits of leading companies [1]. - The competitive advantages of Chinese raw material pharmaceutical companies are expected to strengthen by 2026, with some product prices having likely bottomed out, leading to potential price recovery due to changes in competitive dynamics and production capacity utilization [1]. Company Summary - The Cathay Innovation Drug ETF (517110) tracks the SHS Innovation Drug Index (931409), which focuses on publicly listed companies engaged in the research, production, and sales of innovative drugs in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets [1].

Key Insights - The article highlights the ongoing investment trends in various sectors, particularly in hard technology and healthcare, with significant funding rounds reported for several companies [4][5][26][27]. Group 1: Hard Technology - The semiconductor sector remains a hot investment area, with韬润半导体 completing a new round of financing worth several hundred million yuan, led by熙诚金睿 and supported by multiple institutions [4][16]. - 润芯微科技, a provider of smart base solutions, announced nearly 400 million yuan in B+ round financing, with participation from various state-owned and industrial capital [4][22]. - 中茵微电子 secured several hundred million yuan in C round financing, led by京投公司 and other investors [11]. Group 2: Healthcare - 新景智源, focused on TCR-T immunotherapy for solid tumors, completed over 200 million yuan in B round financing, led by杏泽资本 and a well-known industrial fund [4][26]. - 纽欧申医药, specializing in CNS treatments, raised several million dollars in A+ round financing, led by礼来亚洲基金 [4][28]. - 弼领生物 raised over 200 million yuan in B round financing, with participation from宏诚投资 and other investors [4][27]. Group 3: Internet and AI - Mindverse, a Personal Intelligence company, completed a Pre-A round financing exceeding 20 million USD, led by蚂蚁集团 and supported by红杉中国 [5][33]. - ThetaWave AI, an AI content company, secured several million USD in Pre-A round financing, with investments from BAI Capital and高瓴创投 [5][35]. -阶跃星辰, a startup in the large model space, completed over 5 billion yuan in B+ round financing, with participation from various institutional investors [32]. Group 4: Other Notable Financing -挪瓦咖啡 completed a C round financing worth several hundred million yuan, with investments from multiple prominent institutions [7]. -英汉思动力 announced consecutive financing rounds exceeding 100 million yuan, led by红杉中国 and other investors [8]. -DeepWay raised 1.177 billion yuan in Pre-IPO financing, led by普华资本 and supported by various investors [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Hong Kong technology ETF (513020) has experienced a pullback of over 4%, but the ongoing improvement in AI demand guidance is favorable for the Hong Kong technology sector, suggesting that this pullback may present a buying opportunity [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, AI concept stocks are performing actively due to advancements in chips, indicating the sustained attractiveness of AI as a long-term driving force [1] - The Hong Kong technology ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which encompasses core assets in sectors such as internet, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles, reflecting the diversified characteristics of the technology industry and the overall performance of core technology companies in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has a higher allocation in new energy vehicles, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index, and from the base date at the end of 2014 to the end of 2025, it has achieved a cumulative return of 224.25%, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index (83.87%) by over 140% [1] - The long-term performance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has surpassed that of similar indices, including the Hang Seng Technology Index, the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Internet Index, and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index [1]

在港股升温的交易日里，多家公募基金也紧锣密鼓地布局港股主题产品，当前无论是主题基金的申报、发行， 还是发行时的屡屡提前结募，都体现出资金对于港股投资方面的一致看多。 展望后市，因长期存在的估值优势，"性价比"成为基金经理看多港股的一大因素。此外，有基金经理认为，随 着全球资本的涌入以及"科技牛"的辐射效应，港股科技板块或将与政策主线共振，长期价值重估有望加速。 港股主题基金密集申报 据证监会官网披露，1月30日，易方达精选策略系列-易方达(香港)中国股票股息基金进入申报环节，1月23日， 易方达基金、招商基金和富国基金旗下也各有港股主题产品申报。 这也是近期各家基金集中申报港股主题基金的缩影，仅在2026年年内申报的基金中，就有39只港股主题基金 （名称中包含了"恒生""港股"等），基金类型有ETF、有ETF联接基金以及主动权益类产品，主题方面，包括 恒生科技、港股通红利、港股通消费以及港股通医疗等概念。 在过去的一周里，港股恒生指数逆市上扬，成功突破去年10月阶段性高点，并接连刷新近四年来指数新 高。 值得一提的是，近期随着有色、化工板块的鹊起，港股主题基金也将布局方向聚焦于相关板块，如永赢基金申 报了港股 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Surgical Robot Industry**: The Chinese surgical robot industry is experiencing rapid development, supported by national policies and capital investment. Key technological advancements include remote operation, miniaturization, and AI assistance. The market for laparoscopic surgical robots is projected to reach 40.543 billion yuan by 2033, with a CAGR of 28.7% from 2024 to 2033 [doc id='21'][doc id='19']. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities in Innovative Drugs and CRO**: Despite past challenges, investment activity in innovative drugs and Contract Research Organizations (CRO) is expected to rise significantly. Business development (BD) amounts are anticipated to reach new highs, with companies like Rongchuang and Shiyao achieving attractive upfront payment ratios [doc id='3'][doc id='4']. - **Medical Device Sector Recovery**: The medical device sector is nearing the end of its inventory destocking phase, with performance expected to improve gradually in 2026. The resumption of procurement rhythms and an increase in bidding volumes are noted trends [doc id='5']. - **IVD Sector Outlook**: The In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) sector is expected to face pressure in 2025, but conditions are projected to improve in 2026 as pricing pressures ease and policies are fully implemented [doc id='8'][doc id='9']. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Recovery**: The TCM sector is anticipated to bottom out in Q2 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027 driven by policy support and demand resurgence [doc id='10']. Additional Important Insights - **AI Medical and Brain-Computer Interface Technologies**: AI in healthcare is crucial for enhancing productivity, though its commercialization path remains uncertain. The brain-computer interface sector shows promise but also faces commercialization challenges [doc id='6']. - **CRO Sector Performance**: The CRO sector is showing strong order and operational performance, with companies like Kanglong Huacheng making significant progress in commercial production [doc id='11']. - **Market Dynamics for Surgical Robots**: The market for surgical robots is transitioning from an introduction phase to a growth phase, with increasing sales but slower revenue growth, indicating a structural transformation [doc id='19']. - **Regulatory Developments**: The National Medical Insurance Administration's guidelines are expected to accelerate the clinical application of surgical robots by establishing legitimate billing items [doc id='19']. Company-Specific Highlights - **Shiyao Group and AstraZeneca Collaboration**: The collaboration in the weight loss and metabolism field has set historical highs for upfront payments and total package amounts, although the overall sentiment in the sector remains subdued [doc id='7']. - **Kanglong Huacheng's Growth**: The company is expected to see a significant increase in order retention rates with the launch of its Shaoxing Phase II project, enhancing its competitive position in the CRO market [doc id='12']. - **Emerging Companies**: Companies like Tianyu and Starly are projected to enter performance inflection points this year, with significant growth potential in the raw material pharmaceutical sector [doc id='13'][doc id='14']. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of various sectors within the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Hong Kong stock market, which recently reached a four-year high before experiencing a global market risk-off adjustment [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The rapid rise in the Hong Kong market in January exceeded general expectations, particularly after a period of low investor interest during Q4 [1][2]. - Two critical questions arose post-adjustment: 1. Whether and when to add to positions 2. Whether the recovery will be led by recently underperforming sectors like technology and cyclical materials or if new leading sectors will emerge [2]. - The response to the first question indicates that adding to positions is advisable, as the adjustment is seen as healthy [2][3]. - External factors causing market adjustments have not fundamentally impacted the market; liquidity concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance are largely priced in [3]. - Active foreign capital has shown consistent net inflows for three weeks, and earnings expectations continue to be revised upwards [3]. - Seasonal trends around the Lunar New Year and catalysts like AI developments are expected to favor the Hong Kong market [3]. Additional Important Insights - The current high congestion in popular sectors, particularly in resource commodities, may lead to continued short-term volatility [4]. - A potential opportunity to build positions may arise if volatility indicators like VIX decrease and congestion levels drop before the Lunar New Year [5]. - The focus on technology and resource sectors is characterized as a technical pullback rather than a reversal, emphasizing the distinction between the "Hang Seng Tech" index and core stocks in AI hardware/software and innovative pharmaceuticals [5]. - The current hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not expected to fundamentally disrupt the narrative for technology and resource sectors [5]. - Insurance, local Hong Kong stocks, and high-quality consumer leaders are recommended as stable core holdings due to their robust fundamentals [6]. - The annual outlook emphasizes three major equilibria for the Hong Kong market: earnings valuation rebalancing, internal and external capital rebalancing, and sector rebalancing, advocating for a mid-term investment perspective focused on fundamentals rather than chasing rapid gains [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry: Storage Chips - HBF is expected to partially replace HBM in AI servers, balancing performance and cost, with mass production anticipated in Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 at a price of approximately $10–11 per GB [1][2] - HBF is beneficial for SanDisk and Kioxia as they do not engage in HBM business, allowing them to expand their market through HBF [1][2] - Current supply and demand for HBM are generally balanced [1][2] - Production capacity is planned to expand to 476,000 wafers per month by 2026, suggesting a stable to declining price for HBM in 2026 [2] Industry: RF Chips - The RF chip industry is expected to see moderate recovery in 2026, with intense price competition in the 4G sector, while the 5G sector's L-PAMiD modules maintain a profit margin exceeding 20% with relatively eased competition [2] - Satellite direct connection in mobile phones is emerging as a new growth area, with the Mate80 series supporting low-altitude direct connection, primarily in collaboration with Zhaoshengwei; Xiaomi, Vivo, OPPO, and Samsung are following suit [2] Industry: AI Programming - Current AI programming tools are categorized into three main types: plugin-based, AI-native IDEs, and Agent types, represented by GitHub Copilot, Cursor, and Claude Code respectively [2] - GitHub Copilot shows the fastest commercialization progress with a monthly active user payment rate exceeding 20%; Cursor's latest ARR has reached $1 billion; Claude Code's API call volume is approximately 60% of Anthropic's, indicating significant revenue potential [3] - Leading domestic programming models include DeepSeek, Zhipu, Alibaba Qianwen, and Kimi, with a focus on the B-end market, while C-end free IDE products are currently underperforming [3] Industry: Tires - The global demand for giant tires is expected to grow by 35% from 2025 to 2029, driven primarily by increased demand from overseas mining projects [3] - Foreign brands like Michelin, Bridgestone, and Goodyear plan to raise giant tire prices by over 10% in 2026, while domestic brands like Hai'an will not increase prices to capture market share [3] - Hai'an's overseas growth this year is primarily focused on markets in Russia, Northwest Africa, and South Africa, with other domestic brands like Sailun and Zhongce also accelerating their international expansion [3] Industry: Pharmacies - Recent policy documents appear macro in nature and lack specific measures, but they provide a framework and space for subsequent detailed regulations from various ministries [3] - The industry is still undergoing a natural clearance process, with an expected annual exit of 10,000 to 20,000 stores, predicting a dynamic balance when the total number of stores stabilizes around 600,000 [3] - The O2O average transaction value has increased from below 50 yuan to approximately 55 yuan, with future O2O growth expected to maintain over 20% [3] Industry: Innovative Drugs - Competition in the CXO sector from South Korea is intensifying, with Samsung entering the ADC and cell therapy production markets [4] - To address patent cliff issues, BMS has launched seven new core products, while Merck has engaged in extensive mergers and acquisitions to enter new disease areas [4] - Major pharmaceutical companies are actively investing in AI, but few have the capability for significant computational investment like Eli Lilly [4]

（来源：经济参考报） 联博基金日前发布中国资本市场观点表示，展望2026年权益市场，可关注中国经济转型升级契机下的资 本市场表现。"反内卷"、企业出海与AI等因素有望支持企业盈利改善。2026年随着经济转型推进，A股 企业有望迎来更强的盈余增长动能。从行业来看，新消费、创新药与科技AI等领域不容忽视。债券市 场方面，明确的趋势性行情或较难出现，区间震荡或更趋常态化。 联博基金副总经理、投资总监朱良表示，具体来看，经济结构转型包括消费形态的转型、竞争模式转型 （"反内卷"）与经营模式转型。中国政府推动提高经济质量的政策对资本市场构成支持。 在消费领域，朱良表示，消费在GDP中的比重逐步上升，相关拉动举措可能使新消费成为重要投资方 向。消费形态方面也在经历转型，年轻群体更注重消费体验与情绪价值，追求即时满足与高反馈。这 种"小确幸"式消费偏好有利于细分市场需求的形成，而民营企业在满足这些细分需求上较为灵活，因而 中小盘民营企业在新消费领域可能带来值得关注的机会。 朱良表示，就政策影响而言，上市公司盈利对市场表现的影响或将大于经济政策的影响。"反内卷"等措 施有望推动盈利改善。此外，上市公司海外营收占比若持续扩大， ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment lies in clarifying the source of profits and focusing on sustainable value creation, which is crucial for navigating market cycles and achieving long-term returns [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Investment should be based on a clear understanding of profit sources, whether from market fluctuations, industry beta, or individual stock alpha [2]. - A value-driven investment framework is emphasized, focusing on assessing asset values and constructing safety margins at reasonable prices [2]. - Identifying high-growth industries through systematic cross-industry comparisons is essential for uncovering investment opportunities [2][3]. Market Trends - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with limited downside risks and a notable trend of capital inflow into various sectors [4]. - The stock market is viewed as a voting machine in the short term but as a weighing machine in the long term, highlighting the importance of clear upward industry trends and performance realization [4]. Focus Areas - Key investment opportunities include AI and its derivatives, solid-state batteries, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5]. - The AI sector is expected to be a core area of focus for 2026, with significant potential for growth [4][5]. - The robotics industry is currently in the early investment stage, with attention on the mass production capabilities of T-chain robots [5]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector is anticipated to benefit from supportive policies, with potential for significant market growth and profitability [5].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index reached a four-year high last week, but experienced a technical pullback due to a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, indicating a risk-off sentiment in global equity markets [1] - The market sentiment index moved from panic to optimism within 16 days, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [1] - Current market volatility is expected to persist, but it is more likely to be a correction rather than a reversal of market performance [1] Earnings and Revenue Expectations - Non-financial earnings expectations have been revised upward by 0.4% over the past four weeks, while revenue expectations have been slightly downgraded by 0.1% [2] - The sectors with the most significant upward revisions in earnings expectations include non-ferrous metals (7.7%), military industry (4.0%), and electric new energy (1.8%) [2] Capital Flow - Foreign capital continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with net inflows reaching $2.8 billion, up from $1.95 billion the previous week [3] - Active foreign capital has seen a continuous inflow for three weeks, with a record weekly inflow of $640 million [3] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair has led to short-term volatility, but the medium-term liquidity outlook remains accommodative [3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment index has risen to 62.1, indicating an optimistic outlook [4] - Factors contributing to this optimism include strong net inflows from southbound capital and high buying intensity [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with earnings certainty should be considered as core holdings, while opportunities to increase allocations in technology and cyclical materials should be explored during market corrections [5] - Focus on sectors showing upward trends, such as AI-related industries, semiconductor manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5]