来源：郭一鸣- 本周 A 股实现标志性突破，上证指数盘中突破3888.60 点，不仅刷新年内新高，更成功突破前期震荡整 理平台，深证成指、创业板指同步走高形成上涨共振，市场做多情绪阶段性释放。不过，随着美联储降 息窗口临近、国内关键经济数据将公布，市场仍处于强势震荡阶段，短期需警惕双向波动，中期向好趋 势未改。 板块影响上，若降息符合预期且偏鸽，半导体、AI 算力等科技成长股（受益行业高景气）及保险、地 产等利率敏感型板块或继续上冲；若不及预期，前期透支宽松预期的高估值科技股与受净息差压力的银 行板块或率先回调。 一、指数突破背后：强震特征未改 沪指突破 3888 点关键阻力位时，成交量维持2.5 万亿元附近，标志市场暂时摆脱区间束缚，但突破后尾 盘冲高回落，3900点整数关口附近解套盘与获利盘抛压显现。同时，机构资金、游资活跃度有所下降， 叠加企业股票回购进入静默期，资金推动力短期承压，说明市场未进入 "单边上涨" 阶段。 技术面看，主要指数沿周线 MA5 均线稳步上行，中期上升趋势明确；但日线级别需警惕量能断层风 险，若后续成交量无法持续放大，MACD 红柱可能缩短，前期积累的超买压力或引发技术性回调，" ...

图文无关 这几年，房地产的变化，想必大家也是有目共睹的。过去驱动房地产市场发展的因素都在发生了巨大的 变化，这样意味着房地产市场将迎来大变天。 据公开数据查询到，国内的城镇化率在近10多年是呈现快速发展的态势，即由2014年的55.75%增长至 2024年的67%，年均增长约1.1个百分点。以国内目前的人口基数，则意味着每年有大量的农村人口转 化为城镇人口，这就为房地产市场提供了源源不断的需求来源。 不过城镇化率达到一定水平后，城镇化进程就会减缓，这是发展规律。而目前国内的城镇化率已经接近 70%了，基本上过了快速发展的阶段，慢慢将进入存量提质的阶段，这也是这次中央城市工作会议的定 调。 而实际上，最近几年的城镇化进程已经在逐渐放缓了。通过对近十年的城镇化率数据的分析，会发现最 近几年的每年城镇化率增长是低于1%，像2024年末的城镇化率仅比2023年末提升了0.84个百分点，明 显低于2014年到2024年的平均值，基本上呈现是前高后低的态势。 而与此同时，从2022年起，国内总人口也开启了负增长。目前已经连续负增长了3年，2022年-2024年， 总人口分别减少了85万人、208万人和139万人。一般来说 ...

《工作方案》立足镇江实际，提出了加快省市重大项目建设、推动房地产投资止跌回稳、强化制造 业投资顶梁柱作用、夯实基础设施项目支撑、进一步提高政府投资效益、持续加大招商引资力度、用好 用足一揽子增量政策等七个方面重点任务。每项任务均明确相关要求、细化工作举措，强化重点行业、 重点领域支撑，构建协同发力"大格局"，全力以赴扩大有效投资。 投资是拉动经济增长的重要引擎。近日，市产业强市领导小组办公室印发《镇江市2025年下半年稳 投资工作方案》（以下简称《工作方案》），明确聚力七大重点任务推动稳投资工作提质增效，以有效 投资为经济社会高质量发展注入强劲动能。 市发改委相关负责人介绍，《工作方案》突出"稳增长、调结构"双主线，强调"扩大有效投资"，以 重点项目建设为抓手，以招商引资为动力，积极发挥"两重""两新"等政策拉动作用，聚焦制造业、房地 产、基础设施等重点领域投资稳增长、调结构，实现投资规模与质量效益同步提高。 为确保各项任务落地见效，《工作方案》提出了四方面保障措施，包括强化资金支持、加强要素保 障、优化投资环境、完善工作机制等。尤其是对重大项目实行"容缺受理"和分级保障，优化审批流程， 提升服务效率。在优化 ...

机构认为，行业景气恢复、出口延续韧性、暑期消费旺季、房地产支持政策等因素为8月信贷增长提供 了支撑。 一方面，从企业部门看，部分企业的贷款增长受益于生产景气度出现回升。东部省份某银行分行的客户 经理对中国证券报记者说："我行制造业贷款储备及投放明显好于上年。前8月新增制造业贷款占新增对 公贷款比重为53%，较2024年全年大幅提升33个百分点，尤其是以高技术制造业和装备制造业为代表的 先进制造业景气度较高，企业新增融资需求较多，对信贷增长形成了有力支撑。" 也有市场人士分析，近期，纺织服装、专用设备、计算机通信等行业景气度处于较高区间，投融资需求 相对旺盛，带动信贷增长。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 中国人民银行9月12日发布的金融数据显示，8月末，广义货币（M2）、社会融资规模增速均保持在较 高水平，为经济持续回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。 专家表示，后续宏观政策将保持连续性和稳定性，适度宽松的货币政策仍将保持对实体经济较强的支持 力度，财政政策也将积极发力，推动经济进一步回升向好。 多因素支持信贷增长 数据显示，前8月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加7110亿元，其中，短期贷款减 少372 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - M2 growth rate decreased to 8.8% with a total balance of 331.98 trillion yuan, indicating a tightening of liquidity in the market [3] - Corporate medium to long-term loans increased by 7.38 trillion yuan in the first eight months, suggesting strong investment in sectors like manufacturing and technology [3] - Household deposits surged by 9.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a conservative outlook on future income and a lack of consumer confidence [4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Borrowing Costs - Interbank borrowing rates and repurchase rates hit new lows at 1.4% and 1.41% respectively, reducing borrowing costs for businesses [5] - High-debt industries, such as real estate, may benefit from lower interest rates, potentially alleviating financial pressures [6] - Technology companies are encouraged to borrow for innovation due to lower interest rates, particularly in sectors like semiconductor equipment and AI [7] Group 3: Cross-Border Transactions and Currency - Cross-border RMB settlement reached 1.47 trillion yuan, with goods trade accounting for 1.11 trillion yuan, indicating accelerated RMB internationalization [8] - The growth in cross-border trade along the Belt and Road Initiative may benefit companies involved in construction machinery and infrastructure materials [8] - Companies involved in the development of the CIPS system, such as Sifang Jingchuang and Shenzhou Information, are likely to see stable stock performance [8] Group 4: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign exchange reserves reached 3.322 trillion USD, the highest in recent years, reflecting international confidence in the Chinese economy [9] - Northbound capital inflows exceeded 50 billion yuan in August, primarily targeting leading consumer and technology stocks [9] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves may lead to greater currency volatility, necessitating hedging strategies for those holding foreign assets [9] Group 5: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Opportunities identified include manufacturing and technology sectors, supported by a 7.38 trillion yuan increase in corporate loans [10] - The green economy is highlighted as a potential growth area, with a 29.5% increase in carbon trading volume [10] - Risks include the sluggish recovery in the real estate sector, with only a 1.08 trillion yuan increase in household long-term loans [11] - A liquidity trap is indicated by M1 growth at 6%, suggesting businesses are hesitant to spend, which could lead to market stagnation [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's financial metrics, including social financing scale, broad money (M2), and RMB loans, are showing robust year-on-year growth, reflecting a stable financial environment that supports economic activities [2][5][6] - As of the end of August, the social financing scale reached 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, indicating a strong support for economic activities [5] - The M1 and M2 "scissor difference" has narrowed to 2.8 percentage points, the smallest value this year, suggesting a shift towards more liquid deposits that can facilitate consumption and investment [5][6] Group 2 - The RMB loan balance reached 269.1 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, supported by recovering industry sentiment, resilient exports, and seasonal consumption peaks [3][4] - The manufacturing sector has seen a significant increase in loan demand, with new manufacturing loans accounting for 53% of new corporate loans, up 33 percentage points from the previous year [3] - Personal loans have also increased due to traditional summer consumption patterns and policies promoting consumption, indicating a rise in consumer demand [3][4] Group 3 - Recent housing policies in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have stimulated demand for personal housing loans, leading to a noticeable increase in loan consultations and agreements [4] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing local government hidden debts reached 1.9 trillion yuan by the end of August, contributing to a higher loan growth rate [4] - The overall loan growth rate, adjusted for the impact of hidden debt replacement, is estimated to be around 7.8%, indicating strong support for the real economy [4] Group 4 - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8%, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 8.6%, both outpacing the overall loan growth rate [7] - Loan interest rates remain at historical lows, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year [7] - Analysts predict that the macroeconomic environment will continue to support a stable and moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing financial support for key sectors [8][9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market showed positive trends on September 12, 2025, with more than half of the industries rising and the valuation increasing. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market also heated up, and small - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant [1]. - The central price of convertible bonds increased, while the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The overall valuation of convertible bonds rose, with the conversion premium rate of various types of convertible bonds increasing [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index Performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.17% month - on - month, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Shanghai 50 Index all declined. The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.31% [1]. - Market Style: Small - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant. Among them, small - cap growth stocks rose 0.32%, while large - cap growth and value stocks declined [1]. - Capital Performance: The trading volume in the convertible bond market reached 82.886 billion yuan, a 7.82% increase month - on - month. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.548312 trillion yuan, a 3.40% increase. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 37.278 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.73bp to 1.87% [1]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - Price: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 131.41 yuan, a 0.17% increase. The proportion of high - price bonds (above 130 yuan) decreased by 0.29pct, and the proportion of bonds in the 110 - 120 yuan range increased by 1.0pct. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan [2]. - Valuation: The conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par - value convertible bonds was 29.94%, a 0.38pct increase. The overall weighted par value decreased by 0.52%. The conversion premium rates of all types of convertible bonds (including partial - equity, partial - debt, and balanced) increased [2]. Industry Performance - Stock Market: Among A - share industries, the top three decliners were communication (-2.13%), beauty care (-1.52%), and banking (-1.52%); the top three gainers were non - ferrous metals (+1.96%), real estate (+1.51%), and steel (+1.41%) [3]. - Convertible Bond Market: 18 industries in the convertible bond market rose. The top three gainers were environmental protection (+2.86%), non - ferrous metals (+1.51%), and communication (+1.37%); the top three decliners were machinery and equipment (-2.08%), media (-1.56%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.48%) [3]. - Different Industry Indicators: In terms of closing price, large - cycle industries rose 0.89%, while manufacturing industries declined 0.22%. In terms of conversion premium rate, all industries increased to varying degrees. In terms of conversion value, large - cycle industries rose 0.87%, while manufacturing industries declined 1.60% [3].

最新一期金融数据发布。9月12日，人民银行官网发布2025年8月金融统计数据报告，2025年8月末，广义货币（M2）余额331.98万亿元，同比增长8.8%，比 上年同期高2.5个百分点；社会融资规模存量433.66万亿元，同比增长8.8%，比上年同期高0.7个百分点。人民币各项贷款余额269.1万亿元，同比增长6.8%， 贷款利率保持在历史低位水平。 专家评价，行业景气恢复、出口延续韧性、暑期消费旺季、房地产支持政策等因素，为8月信贷增长提供了支撑。当前，我国金融总量已经很大，在保持总 量合理增长的同时，更需要优化结构。未来，货币政策重点要在优化结构方面下功夫。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学 ...

（原标题：300379，涉嫌触及重大违法强制退市情形！本周大牛股揭晓） 今日（9月12日），三大股指集体收跌，收盘上涨个股超1900只，其中收盘股价涨停的有74只。 从一周表现来看，三大指数均上扬，沪指本周累计上涨1.52%，深证成指累计涨2.65%，创业板指累计涨2.1%。 一周牛熊股出炉：4股累计涨幅均超52% 晚间重要公告 据证券时报·数据宝统计，个股方面，本周超3500股上涨，21股涨幅超30%。其中，涨幅最大的是香农芯创，本周累计上涨71.74%；首开股份、淳 中科技、青山纸业本周累计涨幅均在52%以上。 本周涨超30%的个股中，按所属行业统计，计算机和电子行业个股居多，均有3股上榜；其次是传媒、房地产、汽车、机械设备行业，均有2股上 榜。 本周累计下跌的个股中，59股跌幅在10%以上，宏裕包材、安正时尚、华光环能和中环海陆等8股累计均跌超20%。 一周龙虎榜：8股获机构大手笔净买入 龙虎榜数据显示，本周机构专用席位共现身120股的龙虎榜，净买入54股，净卖出66股。其中，40股获机构净买入超千万元，均胜电子、浙海德曼 等共8股获机构净买入金额超1亿元。 统计显示，机构本周龙虎榜现身个股中，有48股 ...

盘后数据出炉。 沪深300今日主力资金净流出185.06亿元，创业板净流出189.48亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025-9-12 | -185.06 | -189.48 | -2. 08 | | 2025-9-11 | 96. 73 | 104. 83 | -39.52 | | 2025-9-10 | -0. 46 | -11. 20 | -3. 52 | | 2025-9-9 | -198. 11 | -274. 85 | -1.83 | | 2025-9-8 | -128. 23 | -168. 23 | 18. 08 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 000E_0_47 | CV FG- | -71 06 | 0 04 | | 2025-9-12 | -31. 43 | -24. 06 | 0. 01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-9-11 | 21. 10 | 31. 68 | - ...