1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina are improving marginally, but a significant breakthrough still requires a driving force. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range oscillation. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's bauxite policies, and the Iran geopolitical conflict [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Futures price: As of March 6, the alumina index had risen 3.04% to 2,845 yuan/ton compared to the price on January 30. The overall commodity market sentiment was bullish, the alumina supply tightened marginally, and the Iran geopolitical conflict increased concerns about Middle - East alumina supply, leading to an upward oscillation in futures prices. For a sustained rebound, strong supply - side contraction policies, Guinea's bauxite price - support policies, and full digestion of warehouse receipts are needed. As of March 6, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 222 yuan/ton to the AO2605 contract price, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts was - 34 yuan/ton [11][21]. - Spot price: Due to increased capacity maintenance in February, the alumina supply tightened marginally, causing the spot price to rebound. As of March 6, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2,695 yuan/ton, 2,750 yuan/ton, 2,665 yuan/ton, 2,610 yuan/ton, 2,655 yuan/ton, and 2,950 yuan/ton respectively, up 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton from early February [11][18]. - Inventory: As of March 6, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 15.7 tons to 572.2 tons compared to early February. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit, and at ports increased by 3.6 tons, decreased by 5 tons, increased by 7.6 tons, and increased by 9.5 tons respectively [11][64]. 3.2 Supply - Side - Production: In January 2026, the alumina production was 7.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. Due to shrinking profits, more alumina capacity was under maintenance and new production was delayed, leading to a marginal tightening of supply [12][41]. - New production capacity: The planned new domestic alumina production capacity in 2026 is 13.4 million tons, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q4 [43][44]. - Profit: The alumina spot price rebounded, and the profit of alumina plants improved. On March 6, the production profit in Guangxi was 105 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian and Guinean ore was 190 yuan/ton each. In Shanxi and Henan, using Guinean ore would result in a loss of 50 yuan/ton and a profit of 40 yuan/ton respectively [46]. 3.3 Raw Material - Side - Bauxite price: As of March 6, the domestic bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged, and the CIF price of Guinean bauxite was flat, while the Australian CIF price dropped by 5 US dollars/ton to 55 US dollars/ton. The bauxite price reversal depends on large - scale overseas supply contraction, and the import cost of Guinean bauxite is a key price support, with 60 US dollars/ton approaching the cost line of some small and medium - sized mines [25]. - Bauxite production: In February 2026, China's bauxite production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.92%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16% [27]. - Bauxite import: In December 2025, China's bauxite import was 14.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The total import for the 12 months in 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48% [29]. - Guinea bauxite import: In December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%. The cumulative import in 2025 was 149.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.32% [32]. - Bauxite port inventory: As of February 27, 2026, the global bauxite shipments remained high, and China's bauxite port inventory was 26.14 million tons, indicating sufficient ore reserves [35]. - Bauxite inventory: In February 2026, China's bauxite inventory increased by 0.96 million tons to 58.86 million tons, reaching a five - year high. The inventory in Shanxi and Henan increased by 0.07 million tons each, and the inventory increase mainly came from Shandong and Guangxi [38]. 3.4 Import and Export - Alumina import and export data: In December 2025, the net alumina import was 21,900 tons. The import volume decreased from 232,000 tons to 228,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 168,000 tons to 210,000 tons. The total net export for the 12 months in 2025 was 1.35 million tons [49]. - Import window: As of March 6, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 1 US dollar/ton to 303 US dollars/ton compared to early February, and the import profit and loss was 1 yuan/ton. With the rebound of the domestic spot price, the import window was approaching [52]. 3.5 Demand - Side - Electrolytic aluminum production: In January 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.19% and a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [56]. - Electrolytic aluminum operation: In January 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.78 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.19% to 96.95% [59]. 3.6 Inventory - Social inventory: As of March 6, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 157,000 tons to 5.722 million tons compared to early February [64]. - Futures warehouse receipt and delivery inventory: As of March 6, 2026, the alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased significantly by 1.66 million tons to 3.37 million tons compared to early February, and the delivery inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had increased by 1.38 million tons to 4.028 million tons [67].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 军事冲突持续，昨夜外盘原油依然强势，WTI原油期货一度触及80美元/桶。昨日SC原油涨势相对松 动,主要因5日下午尾盘时段受突发消息影响直线跳水,最终收长上影线,夜盘呈现区间整理形态。 我们此前指出，SC强势本质是地缘风险通过运输成本在消费地价格上的放大，因此任何关于霍尔木 兹海峡通航的消息都会显著影响SC溢价部分。自冲突爆发以来，内外价差持续走阔，一度高达18.5 美元/桶，昨日SC相对Brent的溢价冲高回落但仍溢价明显。中国将派中东问题特使翟隽访问中东推 动局势降温。后续密切留意霍尔木兹海峡通航情况。当前市场消息纷杂，油价波动加剧，投资者 必做好风险控制。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属小幅回落，美伊战局激烈但并未显现更多变化。数据方面美国周度初请失业金人数录得 21.3万人维持低位基本符合预期，美联储多位官员讲话普遍认为应关注通胀维持利率不变，市场聚 焦今晚美国非农就业和零售销售数据。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜夜盘在10万一线韧性博弈，尾盘伦铜接近再次测试MA60日均线。市场等待今日美国关键指 标，目前经济活动稳健，战局背景 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the impact of the Middle - East crisis on the supply side has almost been priced in. Short - term aluminum prices face high risks. If the crisis eases, there may be a reversal of the previous risk premium. In the long run, if the crisis eases, the reduction in Qatar's electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 is still difficult to recover, and overseas supply - demand will become more tight. The long - term upward trend of overseas electricity prices will continue to drive up aluminum prices from the cost side, and the long - term upward trend of aluminum prices will not change [6]. - For alumina, the Middle - East crisis has led to a large number of resales of overseas alumina orders, putting pressure on prices. The supply surplus pressure has eased due to the continuous production cuts of northern alumina plants, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. However, the high warehouse receipt inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and alumina prices lack upward momentum [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 25120 yuan/ton, with a change of 730 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; East China aluminum spot premium/discount is - 140 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 24970 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 290 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 25080 yuan/ton, with a change of 720 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the aluminum spot premium/discount is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On March 5, 2026, the opening price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 25100 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 24815 yuan/ton, with a change of 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 25520 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24655 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 717295 lots, and the open interest was 251449 lots [2] Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.256 million tons, with a change of 27000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 319354 tons, with a change of 2278 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 459125 tons, with a change of - 2000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On March 5, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2650 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2610 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2665 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2690 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2760 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On March 5, 2026, the opening price of the main alumina contract was 2778 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2800 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.18%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2826 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2753 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 488920 lots, and the open interest was 308472 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 5, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 18400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 18800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 24300 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 62500 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 83600 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23857 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 544 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes three key stock selection criteria for the aluminum industry: high capacity-to-market value ratio, strong growth potential with overseas expansion capabilities, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency due to current low alumina prices [1][2] - The supply side is characterized by declining elasticity and increasing vulnerability, with domestic capacity reaching its peak and challenges in Europe and the U.S. due to power shortages, while Indonesia faces difficulties in quickly releasing capacity [2] - The demand side is expected to benefit from fiscal and monetary easing, with traditional demand likely to be boosted, and new engines of demand emerging from energy storage and data centers [2] Group 2 - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017, with early movers gaining a competitive advantage in resource-rich regions [3] - The report is bullish on aluminum prices and profit expansion per ton, predicting a continuous widening of the supply-demand gap and potential for aluminum prices to reach new highs [4] - Recommended stocks include China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, and Huatong Cable, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes three key stock selection criteria for the aluminum industry: high capacity-to-market value ratio, strong growth potential with overseas expansion capabilities, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency amid current low alumina prices [1] - The supply side is characterized by declining elasticity and increasing vulnerability, with domestic capacity reaching its peak, and challenges in Europe and Indonesia due to power supply issues. The global supply growth rate is expected to decline systematically, with a CAGR of 1.4% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - Demand is anticipated to benefit from fiscal and monetary easing, with traditional demand expected to rebound and new engines of demand emerging from energy storage and data centers. The demand CAGR is projected to be 2.3% from 2025 to 2030 [1] Group 2 - The Chinese aluminum industry is accelerating its overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017. Companies that expand first will gain a competitive advantage in resource-rich regions [2] - The report is bullish on aluminum prices and profit expansion per ton, expecting a continuous widening of the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum. The average valuation for electrolytic aluminum companies is projected to remain around 10 times by 2026, indicating significant upward revaluation potential [3] - Recommended stocks for attention include China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, and Huatong Cable, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [3]

消息面上，3月5日晚，中信资源发布公告称，3月4日，公司全资附属公司CRA透过于纽交所进行的一 系列场内交易，按平均价每股美国铝业股份62.451美元(相当于约487.12港元)，出售由集团持有的合共 190万股美国铝业股份，相当于美国铝业已发行股份总数约0.72%，总代价约为1.19亿美元(相当于约9.26 亿港元)。完成后，CRA继续持有美国铝业169.19万份存托凭证及55.13万股股份；而已出售的美国铝业 存托凭证相关的累计收益约2.66亿港元。 中信资源(01205)今早复牌，现涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.36%，报0.59港元，成交额2120.8万港元。 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 军事冲突持续，昨夜外盘原油依然强势，WTI原油期货一度触及80美元/桶。昨日SC原油涨势相对松 动,主要因5日下午尾盘时段受突发消息影响直线跳水,最终收长上影线,夜盘呈现区间整理形态。 我们此前指出，SC强势本质是地缘风险通过运输成本在消费地价格上的放大，因此任何关于霍尔木 兹海峡通航的消息都会显著影响SC溢价部分。自冲突爆发以来，内外价差持续走阔，一度高达18.5 美元/桶，昨日SC相对Brent的溢价冲高回落但仍溢价明显。中国将派中东问题特使翟隽访问中东推 动局势降温。后续密切留意霍尔木兹海峡通航情况。当前市场消息纷杂，油价波动加剧，投资者 必做好风险控制。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属小幅回落，美伊战局激烈但并未显现更多变化。数据方面美国周度初请失业金人数录得 21.3万人维持低位基本符合预期，美联储多位官员讲话普遍认为应关注通胀维持利率不变，市场聚 焦今晚美国非农就业和零售销售数据。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜夜盘在10万一线韧性博弈，尾盘伦铜接近再次测试MA60日均线。市场等待今日美国关键指 标，目前经济活动稳健，战局背景 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting May and going long September for glass [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on 98,000 - 106,000; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; bullish sideways movement for gold and silver; range - bound movement for lithium carbonate [1][13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Bullish sideways movement for PVC and caustic soda; shorting on rallies for soda ash; going long on dips but not chasing highs for styrene and rubber; range trading for urea and methanol; bullish sideways movement for polyolefins [1][25][28] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Bullish sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; bullish sideways movement for apples; sideways movement for red dates [1][39][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautiously shorting on rallies for the May contract of live pigs, bullish with caution for the July and September contracts; shorting on rallies for near - month egg contracts; range trading for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; bullish sideways movement for oils, suggesting going long on soybean and palm oils on dips [1][43][45] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. Geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic policies are key factors influencing the market trends of these futures products. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to be under pressure in the short term due to external market declines and geopolitical events, but bullish in the medium to long term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Lacking a clear trading theme, with the market waiting for more guidance from important meetings, expected to move in a sideways pattern [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The post - Spring Festival market is generally weak and stable, with tepid trading. Downstream demand recovery is slow, and short - term trading is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move sideways. The current valuation is low, but the driving force is weak. Attention should be paid to the post - festival demand recovery [9] - **Glass**: The market is weak in the short term, with a recommendation to short the May contract and go long the September contract. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and there is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be strongly bullish in the long term, supported by new energy, power, and AI computing power demand. In the short term, it is recommended to trade within the range of 98,000 - 106,000, while closely monitoring geopolitical events, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation is improving, but the inventory pressure is large. The market trading logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [15][16] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions on dips [17][18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to continue a bullish sideways movement, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical events and the weakening of the US economy, the prices are expected to continue a bullish sideways movement. It is recommended to build long positions on dips after sufficient price corrections [20][21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions may occur, and the price is expected to continue a bullish sideways movement. Attention should be paid to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the mining end disturbances in Yichun [23][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for short - term bullish sideways movement due to factors such as low valuation and export tax rebates. It is recommended to trade within the rising channel [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by export growth expectations and spring maintenance, it is expected to have a strong rebound at a low valuation. Caution is advised when chasing the rise [28] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and export, it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. It is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the cost support is strengthened, and it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, inventory, and the Iranian situation [31] - **Rubber**: In a state of short - term game, it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and it is advisable to reduce positions or observe on rallies [32] - **Urea**: In a pattern of increasing supply and demand after the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be generally bullish in March, but may face pressure in the middle and late March to April. Attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [34][35] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, there may be a supply gap in the short term, pushing up the price. The supply and demand are in a state of high utilization rate, and it is recommended to trade within the range [36][37] - **Soda Ash**: With the increase in supply and inventory pressure, the price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [38] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Based on the global cotton supply - demand forecast, the price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern after the festival due to the recovery of consumption expectations and the strength of foreign cotton [39] - **Apples**: The trading is generally stable, with some price stability and a slightly tepid trading atmosphere. The price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern [41] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the price is expected to move sideways [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term price is expected to continue to bottom out in a sideways pattern. The May contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, while the July and September contracts can be bullish with caution [43][44] - **Eggs**: The current supply is sufficient, and the market is in a long - term grinding bottom stage. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [45] - **Corn**: The short - term price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs at high levels [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is expected to follow the movement of US soybeans. It is recommended to short on rallies [47][48] - **Oils**: The price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern following international crude oil. It is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils on dips [49][53]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are driving up international aluminum prices and causing supply shortages for industrial raw materials, including fertilizers and LNG [2][4]. Group 1: Supply Chain Disruptions - QatarEnergy has declared a "Force Majeure" affecting LNG and its derivatives due to damage from drone attacks, impacting aluminum production as well [4]. - Petronet LNG, India's largest LNG importer, has also issued a "Force Majeure" statement due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, complicating LNG procurement from Qatar [4]. - Norsk Hydro's aluminum smelting plant in Qatar has halted production due to the inability to procure LNG, which is essential for power generation in aluminum production [5]. Group 2: Price Increases - The LME three-month aluminum futures price surged to approximately $3,418 per ton, marking a four-year high due to supply disruptions [5]. - Asian urea prices have increased by 20% compared to the previous week, driven by supply concerns from the Middle East, which accounts for 40% of global urea production [6]. - The price of naphtha, a key raw material for producing plastics, has risen by 23% in Japan, with about 40% of Japan's naphtha imports sourced from the Middle East [7]. Group 3: Market Implications - If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, there may be significant challenges in procuring urea, leading to potential price hikes in fertilizers [6]. - The supply of helium, crucial for semiconductor manufacturing, has been affected as QatarEnergy has ceased helium supplies, although companies have alternative sources and inventories [8].

Group 1: Market Strategy and Economic Outlook - The market is experiencing a recovery, with the MicroLED concept leading the gains [7] - The government work report sets a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5%-5% and outlines a proactive fiscal policy with a deficit rate of around 4% [16][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft proposes 6 major areas and 109 significant projects to enhance economic development [19][20] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - CNOOC Engineering has completed the Shell Nigeria project, marking a significant achievement in offshore oil and gas engineering [21][22] - The China Steel Association reported a 14.2% increase in social inventory of five major steel products, totaling 10.88 million tons [24] - The real estate sector is focusing on policies to stabilize the market, including measures to control inventory and improve supply [25][26] Group 3: Company Updates - Sunshine Nuohua (688621.SH) has received approval for clinical trials of BTP4327, a new hypertension treatment [40] - Fangsheng Pharmaceutical (603998.SH) announced the receipt of a drug registration certificate for Bisoprolol Amlodipine tablets, enhancing its cardiovascular product line [42][43]