1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by a weakening US dollar index, an 87.2% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, mixed labor - market data, and Middle - East geopolitical tensions [3]. - Copper prices face upward pressure from the US dollar index and demand feedback at high prices, but are supported by increasing downstream acceptance, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short - term due to dovish Fed signals and increasing downstream restocking, while alumina is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply surpluses [33]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with supply in a surplus state, stable demand, and potential risks of a short squeeze in LME inventories [62]. - The nickel industry shows stability in nickel ore, firmness in nickel iron, and an uncertain outlook for stainless steel and nickel sulfate, with attention on the September rate - cut expectation [77]. - Tin prices may rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - Carbonate lithium prices may have short - term rebound opportunities if there are supply disruptions, but the long - term supply - demand situation remains loose [103]. - Industrial silicon is in a wait - and - see state, with its开工 rate potentially peaking, and polysilicon requires attention to industry policies [111]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Supported by a low - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and economic data, pushing up prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily view provided, but multiple data charts on prices, spreads, and inventories are presented [4][6][11]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term upward pressure and downward support coexist, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Market Data**: Various copper futures and spot prices show daily increases, with different price changes in different contracts [16][19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: LME copper inventory increased by 1.19% to 157,950 tons, and the scrap - refined copper spread remained stable [15][31]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term upward - biased oscillation due to macro and demand factors [33]. - **Alumina**: Weak short - term oscillation due to supply surpluses, with a support range of 3000 - 3050 yuan per ton and a reference upper range of 3250 - 3300 yuan per ton [33]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply and tax - policy changes, with a price spread of 400 - 500 yuan per ton from aluminum [34]. 3.4 Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is in a surplus state, demand is stable, and there is a potential short - squeeze risk in LME inventories [62]. - **Price Movement**: LME zinc prices rose by 0.73% to 2781 dollars per ton, while domestic zinc prices declined slightly [63]. 3.5 Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: Stable, with a possible slight decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in September [77]. - **Nickel Iron**: Relatively firm, with some large - scale transactions above 940 [77]. - **Stainless Steel and Nickel Sulfate**: Both show oscillating trends, with attention on the September - October peak season [77]. 3.6 Tin - **Price Outlook**: May rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures prices increased, with the Shanghai tin main contract rising 2.19% to 278,650 yuan per ton [93]. 3.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Outlook**: Short - term potential for price rebounds with supply disruptions, but long - term supply - demand remains loose [103]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices declined, with the main carbonate lithium futures contract dropping 960 yuan to 77,180 yuan per ton [104][106]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: Suggest a wait - and - see approach, with the开工 rate potentially peaking [111]. - **Market Data**: Spot and futures prices declined, with the industrial silicon main contract dropping 2.1% to 8390 yuan per ton [112][115].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The Fed's dovish stance boosts the probability of a September rate cut, which in turn supports copper prices. However, the upside of copper prices is still restricted by the "stagflation-like" environment and the uncertainty of the rate cut amplitude. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - Aluminum: For alumina, the market is under pressure due to the overall oversupply, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. The reference range for the main contract is 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, it is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and if the subsequent demand does not improve, there is a possibility of a pull - back [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, and the spot price is expected to remain relatively firm. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [6]. - Zinc: The supply - side is loose and the demand - side is weak, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the overseas inventory reduction provides price support. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and the reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [10]. - Tin: Influenced by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, which boosts tin prices. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile [13]. - Nickel: The macro sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides certain support. The short - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside of prices. The short - term trend is expected to be an interval adjustment, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. - Stainless Steel: The cost support remains, but the fundamentals are restricted by the weak spot demand. The short - term trend is an interval oscillation, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - side contraction expectation is gradually realized, and the demand is showing a stable and optimistic trend. The market sentiment is still weak, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around 80,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,545 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,840 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The import loss is 1,431 yuan/ton, down 118.6 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price is 20,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. The price difference between 2511 - 2512 contracts is 15 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The import loss is 1,810 yuan/ton, up 15.64 yuan from the previous day [8][9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan or 0.74% from the previous day. The import loss is 18,280.69 yuan/ton, down 3,051.62 yuan or 20.04% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [13]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,150 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 1.40% from the previous day. The import loss of futures is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan or 25.52% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume is 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference is 420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 2.33% from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume is 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day. The price difference between 2509 - 2511 contracts is 240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 660,996 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [21].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - The short - term market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the implementation of macro - policies [1]. Alumina - The market is in an overall oversupply situation, and the spot price is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to have limited upside and downside, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy changes in Guinea and macro - sentiment fluctuations [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract reference operating range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and changes in import policies and volumes [3]. Copper - The Fed's dovish stance boosts copper prices, but the upside is still restricted. The fundamentals are in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper price is expected to at least remain volatile, and the main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply is loose and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The market has digested the sentiment and returned to fundamental pricing. The short - term price is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and import - export situations [10]. Stainless Steel - The cost support remains, but the fundamentals are restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill dynamics [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being fulfilled, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Tin - Affected by the Fed's dovishness, the tin price has risen. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with no change. The spread between different months shows certain fluctuations, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - The operating rate of aluminum profiles remains unchanged at 50.5%, while the operating rates of aluminum cables, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foils have increased slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 47.9 tons, a decrease of 0.17% [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions have decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.16% - 0.31%. The import profit and loss is - 1354 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - The output in July was 765.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The static supply surplus is nearly 30,000 tons per day [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions remain unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan has increased by 1.28% - 1.06% [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63%, and the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.31%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 10.59% [3]. Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.24% to 79585 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased to 128 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 3.47% to 117.43 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 1.20% to 29.69 million tons. The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.3 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.13% to 22280 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased to - 1825 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of refined zinc increased by 3.03% to 60.28 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 50.35% to 1.79 million tons. The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.16% to 121450 yuan/ton. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118531 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04% to 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.93% to 26962 tons [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remains unchanged at 13100 yuan/ton. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.64% to 937 yuan/nickel point [12]. Fundamental Data - The output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The net export volume increased by 22.37% to 34.32 million tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.97% to 81700 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.41% to 81530 tons, and the demand increased by 2.50% to 96100 tons. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97846 tons [14]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.11% to 270000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 9.17% to - 15229.07 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, the import volume of tin ore decreased by 13.71% to 10278 tons, and the output of SMM refined tin increased by 15.42% to 15940 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7491 tons [17].

Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: JH meeting Powell signaled dovish stance [2] - Silver: Approaching previous high [2] - Copper: Decline in both domestic and overseas inventories, price remains firm [2] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2] - Lead: Decline in inventory supports price [2] - Tin: Trading within a range [2] - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Alumina: Center of price moving down [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Narrow - range oscillating [2] - Stainless Steel: Short - term low - level oscillation [2] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Comex gold 2510 rose 1.00% to 3417.20, London gold spot rose 0.95% to 3369.82; Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, London silver spot rose 1.85% to 38.801 [5] - **Inventory**: SPDR gold ETF held 956.77 tons, SLV silver ETF held 15,288.82 tons (previous day) [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [8] Copper - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,190, down 0.63%, night - session price rose 0.29% to 79420; LME copper 3M electronic disk rose 0.38% to 9,847 [10] - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 830 tons to 22,917 tons, LME copper inventory decreased by 975 tons to 155,000 tons [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [12] Zinc - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22270, down 0.56%; LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose 1.39% to 2805.5 [13] - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory increased by 1172 tons to 36366 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2550 tons to 65525 tons [13] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Lead - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16930, up 0.50%; LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.12% to 1992 [16] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 747 tons to 58201 tons, LME lead inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 271550 tons [16] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [16] Tin - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,930, down 0.21%; LME tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.11% to 33,845 [19] - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 205 tons to 7,053 tons, LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons to 1,785 tons [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [24] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20715, down 55; Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3069, up 226; cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20265, down 65 [25] - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 60.30 million tons, unchanged [25] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 0, alumina - 1, and cast aluminum alloy 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,370, up 60; stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840, down 40 [28] - **Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including production suspensions and regulatory actions [28][29][30] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term, copper price is affected by the game of interest - rate cut expectations. The Fed's dovish stance on August 22 boosted the market's expectation of a September rate cut and copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction of copper is the main line. The supply is tight, and there is support at the bottom. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price may fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the US economic data in August and the rate - cut path in the second half of the year [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The alumina futures market was weak this week due to the increase in warehouse receipts. The spot market is divided between the north and the south. The medium - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton next week, and short positions can be considered in the medium term. - Aluminum: The aluminum futures market fluctuated narrowly this week. The current supply - demand structure is under pressure, and the subsequent inventory build - up expectation is still strong. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of aluminum alloy showed marginal improvement this week. The social inventory decreased for the first time since mid - April. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand from the communication die - casting sector has rebounded. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption. The smelting profit has been repaired, and the smelting start - up rate has increased. The demand is in the seasonal off - season. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are not enough to boost the zinc price to rise continuously, but the overseas inventory drawdown provides support. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronic consumption off - season. The tin price will fluctuate widely in the short term. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered [11]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel futures market fluctuated weakly. The macro - sentiment declined, and the fundamentals of supply and demand changed little. The short - term nickel price will return to fundamental pricing, with limited downside space and restricted upside space by the medium - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market fluctuated downwards. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated sharply. The price center moved down to below 80,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals are in a tight balance, with supply contraction and stable demand. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and there may be strong support in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 78,830 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 4.84% to 1,084 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,226 yuan/ton, down 74.1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 20,450 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 1.28% to 1,588 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 8.13 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin was at 266,000 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The import loss was 16,622.23 yuan/ton, up 6.26% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 120,550 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 176 dollars/ton, up 5.95% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 420 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume of stainless steel was 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80,668 yuan/ton, down 1.53% from the previous day. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 934 dollars/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 66,099.6 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell gave a dovish signal [2][4]. - Silver: It is expected to reach its previous high [2][5]. - Copper: The rise of the US dollar restricts price increases [2][12]. - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a narrow range [2][15]. - Lead: Lacking driving forces, the price will fluctuate [2][19]. - Tin: It will oscillate within a range [2][22]. - Aluminum: Fluctuations will converge; Alumina will decline slightly; Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - Nickel: It will operate in a narrow - range oscillation; Stainless steel will experience short - term low - level fluctuations [2][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Comex Gold 2510 rose 1.00% to 3417.20; London Gold Spot rose 0.95% to 3369.82; Comex Silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390; London Silver Spot rose 1.85% to 38.801 [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Comex Gold 2510 trading volume increased by 59,697 to 179,273, and open interest decreased by 2,083 to 323,440; Comex Silver 2510 trading volume increased by 10,840 to 31,554, and open interest remained unchanged at 90,075 [5]. - **Inventory**: Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 9,952 to 38,573,764; Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) remained unchanged at 508,499,193 [5]. 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple events including geopolitical issues, corporate lawsuits, and policy changes in different countries and regions [7][9][11]. 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity: 1; Silver trend intensity: 1 [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Copper main contract rose 1.32% to 79,690, and the night - session price was 79640, down 0.06%; LME Copper 3M electronic disk rose 0.77% to 9,809 [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Copper main contract trading volume increased by 53,037 to 87,895, and open interest increased by 20,929 to 169,761; LME Copper 3M electronic disk trading volume increased by 6,274 to 16,941, and open interest increased by 3,555 to 268,000 [12]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 401 to 23,747; LME Copper inventory decreased by 375 to 155,975, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 0.77% to 8.03% [12]. 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The US had under - expected housing sales and weak business activity index [12]. - Micro: China's refined copper imports in July 2025 decreased 0.32% month - on - month but increased 12.05% year - on - year; Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [12][14]. 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity: 0 [14]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.54% to 22395; LME Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 1.39% to 2805.5 [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume increased by 42715 to 131380, and open interest decreased by 2533 to 105259; LME Zinc trading volume increased by 948 to 8247, and open interest increased by 1465 to 193310 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 2403 to 35194; LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1300 to 68075 [15]. 3.3.2 News - Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The government plans to implement carbon emission quota control for certain industries [16]. 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Zinc trend intensity: 0 [18]. 3.4 Lead 3.4.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Lead main contract rose 0.39% to 16845; LME Lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.12% to 1992 [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume increased by 18257 to 41202, and open interest decreased by 13190 to 27975; LME Lead trading volume increased by 1725 to 5119, and open interest increased by 3430 to 160840 [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory increased by 2 to 58948; LME Lead inventory decreased by 6550 to 273050 [19]. 3.4.2 News - Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market"; The US had concerns about its economic health [20]. 3.4.3 Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity: 0 [20]. 3.5 Tin 3.5.1 Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The Shanghai Tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930; LME Tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.11% to 33,845 [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Tin main contract trading volume decreased by 2,103 to 34,606, and open interest decreased by 671 to 18,073; LME Tin 3M electronic disk trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [23]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 205 to 7,053; LME Tin inventory increased by 45 to 1,785, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 0.38% to 6.57% [23]. 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - Multiple geopolitical and policy - related events [24][25]. 3.5.3 Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity: 1 [26]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 3.6.1 Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20770; LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2622. The LME注销仓单 ratio was 2.77% [27]. - **Alumina**: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3184 [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [27]. 3.6.2 Comprehensive News - The outcome of the US - South Korea leaders' meeting [28]. 3.6.3 Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [28]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.7.1 Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,310; 1 imported nickel was priced at 120,350 [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,880 [29]. 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [29][30]. 3.7.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the document. 2. Report's Core View - The gold price is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern due to the mixed influence of the Fed's potential interest rate cut and the risk of inflation pressure from Trump's tariff policy [3]. - The copper price may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and limited downward space [15]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, while alumina is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35]. - The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with an increasingly obvious pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices [64]. - The nickel - related market is affected by multiple factors such as nickel ore price, downstream demand, and macro - level factors, and the stainless steel price may have a certain correction [80]. - The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile in the next week [95]. - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to enter a volatile consolidation stage, while the spot market sentiment is expected to remain strong [106]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be in bottom - level volatility in the short term, and the polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile and strong [115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Daily View**: Fed Chair Powell's signal of a potential interest rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased the market's expectation of a September rate cut to 85%, but the risk of inflation pressure from Trump's tariff policy may delay the rate - cut rhythm, leading to a short - term volatile gold price [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including prices, ratios, and spreads, are presented [4][9][12]. - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: The long - term fund holdings of gold and silver show certain trends [12][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are provided [14]. 3.2 Copper - **Daily View**: The Fed's meeting minutes have little impact on copper prices, but Powell's speech has boosted the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals. The copper price may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan per ton, and investors need to pay attention to relevant economic data [15]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are presented [16]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions are provided, along with import profit and loss and processing fee data [21][27]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME copper are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [32][33]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Daily View**: Aluminum prices have experienced a correction due to tariff policies, but low inventory and inventory reduction provide support, and the short - term trend is volatile and strong. Alumina has a weak fundamental situation and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are presented [37]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum spot in different regions are provided, along with relevant basis and spread data [50]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [59]. 3.4 Zinc - **Daily View**: The zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is mainly volatile in the short term, with an obvious pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices [64]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are presented [65]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot are provided, along with relevant basis and spread data [71]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [76]. 3.5 Nickel - **Daily View**: The nickel - related market is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, downstream demand, and macro - level factors. The stainless steel price may have a certain correction [80]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, changes, and change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are presented [81]. - **Related Data**: Various data such as nickel spot price, nickel ore price, and downstream profit are provided [86][88][90]. 3.6 Tin - **Daily View**: The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile in the next week, supported by the decline in social inventory and stable demand [95]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are presented [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot are provided [100]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME tin are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [102]. 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Daily View**: The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to enter a volatile consolidation stage, while the spot market sentiment is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream production schedule in September [106]. - **Futures Data**: The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, including the closing prices of different contracts and the spreads between contracts, are presented [107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related spot are provided [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of lithium carbonate, including warehouse receipts and social inventories, are provided [113]. 3.8 Silicon Industry Chain - **Daily View**: The industrial silicon market is expected to be in bottom - level volatility in the short term, and the polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile and strong [115]. - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon in different regions are presented, along with basis and spread data [116]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are presented [117]. - **Related Data**: Various data such as price charts, basis seasonality, and production and inventory data are provided [118][120][132]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are in a typical volatile convergence stage, and the market may break through the current range. The industry integration is expected to support the market [115]. - **Price Data**: The price trends of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and related products are presented [122][123]. - **Inventory and Cost Data**: The inventory and cost data of polysilicon are provided [138][141].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The dovish remarks from Powell have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, benefiting the prices of precious and base metals [3][41] - The market is beginning to price in the likelihood of a rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a September cut to 91.1% following Powell's comments [3][41] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary policy and debt are expected to support gold prices, with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act projected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [3][15] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while silver rose by 2.26% to $38.88 per ounce [1][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 276,237.73 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 6,992,897.80 ounces [24] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 1.19% to 87.89, indicating a potential recovery in silver prices due to increased industrial demand [1][43] Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 0.37% to $9,796.50 per ton on the LME, while aluminum increased by 0.73% to $2,622.00 per ton [6][48] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines continue to tighten raw material availability, with Peru's copper production increasing by 7.1% year-on-year [7][68] - The market anticipates a cautious improvement in consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [7][70] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at 18,920 yuan per ton, with tight inventory levels among producers [81] - Molybdenum prices have shown positive trends, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 3.60% to 287,500 yuan per ton [14][82] - The demand for molybdenum is expected to remain strong, supported by tight supply conditions [14][82]