1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the ore end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts its elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between long and short positions is intensifying, and the steel price is fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The shutdown of a large - scale mine in Jiangxi has been implemented, and the price is running strongly [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel a. Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,180, down 670 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985, down 15 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 74,864, a decrease of 21,747 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 86,671, an increase of 1,172 from T - 1 [4]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,150, down 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 919, unchanged from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, up 50 from T - 1 [4]. b. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China ENFI's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [5]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [5][6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [6]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron production by about 1,900 tons of metal [6][7]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit their 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [7]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. Lithium Carbonate a. Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 76,640, up 4,720 from T - 1; the trading volume was 145,134, a decrease of 64,511 from T - 1; the open interest was 149,489, a decrease of 11,062 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 76,960, up 4,660 from T - 1; the trading volume was 895,609, an increase of 128,940 from T - 1; the open interest was 320,706, an increase of 30,874 from T - 1 [12]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900, up 800 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800, up 800 from T - 1. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777, up 20 from T - 1 [12]. b. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,961 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,012 yuan/ton from the previous working day [13]. - CATL's Jiaxiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight and has no short - term resumption plan [13]. - The Australian government will inject 50 million Australian dollars (about 32.5 million US dollars) into Liontown Resources to accelerate its underground mining transformation [14]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, it is expected to trade in a narrow - range with limited upside and downside, and investors should focus on range - bound trading and double - selling option strategies. The support from the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts price elasticity. [4] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to oscillate as the multi - empty game intensifies. Bulls focus on macro - expectations and marginal improvements, while bears focus on weak reality and short - term valuations. [5] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high levels in the short term, following coking coal in the short run, and pay attention to the upstream factory resumption rhythm. [28][33] - For polysilicon, the market sentiment has cooled, and the price may correct. It is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. [28][34] - For lithium carbonate, due to the shutdown of the Jianxiawo mine, the price is expected to rise. If overseas supply increases to fill the gap, the price may fall after the project resumes. [54][56] - For palm oil, with strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on dips. [2][71] - For soybean oil, new export drivers have emerged, and investors should pay attention to the results of Sino - US negotiations. [2][72] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Outlook - Nickel price is expected to trade in a narrow range, with limited upside due to increasing global refined nickel inventory and long - term low - cost supply expectations, but difficult to fall sharply in the short term. [4] - Stainless steel price will oscillate as the multi - empty game intensifies, with bulls and bears having different focuses. [5] Inventory Changes - Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. [6][7] - Nickel - iron inventory at the end of July decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year. [8] - Stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.44% week - on - week. [8] Market News - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, environmental violations, and policy changes in Indonesia have occurred. [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures oscillated strongly, while spot prices declined. Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, and spot transactions showed no significant improvement. [28] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Industrial silicon industry inventory turned to accumulation, with increased production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon sectors increased marginally. [29][30] - Polysilicon supply increased in the short term, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand from the silicon wafer sector increased slightly, but the upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the downstream. [30][31] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the upstream factory resumption rhythm, and it is recommended to short at high levels. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [32][33] - Polysilicon: The price may correct, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. The expected price range next week is 47,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. [34] Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures prices increased significantly, and the basis of long - term contracts turned negative. [54] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The Jianxiawo mine of CATL will stop production, and there is no short - term resumption plan. The supply of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate from overseas increased, and the demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets continued to recover. The social inventory increased, with upstream de - stocking and downstream inventory accumulation. [55] Market Outlook - The price is expected to rise due to the mine shutdown. If overseas supply fills the gap, the price may fall after the project resumes. The expected price range of the futures main contract is 75,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. [56][57] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Market Outlook - Palm oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on dips. [2][71] - Soybean oil: New export drivers have emerged, and investors should pay attention to the results of Sino - US negotiations. [2][72]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the current oversupply situation of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near future [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support for stainless steel. But downstream rigid - demand orders are few, and spot trading is weak, lacking impetus for price increase. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On August 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,500 yuan/ton and closed at 121,070 yuan/ton, a change of 0.22% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 87,840 lots, and the open interest was 86,052 lots [1]. - The night session of the main Shanghai nickel contract opened slightly lower, then fell rapidly, and then oscillated higher. The day session rushed up and then fell back, closing slightly higher in the afternoon with a medium - sized positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [2]. - In the Philippines, mines are mostly in the shipping stage. Downstream domestic iron plants mostly reduce production loads, and raw material procurement remains cautious. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, nickel - mine mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel - mine market has weakened. In August (Phase I), the domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars; the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) is mainly +24, flat compared with the previous period, in the range of +23 - 25 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream market brands also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the disk oscillated strongly, and the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Most of the spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,789 (- 134.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,452 (198) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On August 6, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,950 yuan/ton and closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 82,019 lots, and the open interest was 84,046 lots [3]. - The night session of the main stainless - steel contract opened slightly lower, then fell rapidly, and then oscillated back up after getting support. The day session rushed up but was blocked and then oscillated horizontally, closing with a negative doji. The trading volume increased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - In the spot market, the futures disk oscillated horizontally, and the spot price changed little. Purchasers hoped to buy at low prices, while agents were reluctant to reduce prices for shipment, and the overall trading situation was average. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 160 to 360 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 918.0 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The confrontation between bulls and bears is intensifying, and nickel prices are fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: The actual supply - demand situation is dragging down the market, but raw material costs limit the downside space [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Chile's exports are picking up, and attention should be paid to the renewal of mining certificates [2][10]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to today's market news [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 121,070, with a change compared to different previous periods. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,935 [5]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 87,840, and that of the main stainless - steel contract was 82,019 [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and the government may fine violating companies and audit the entire park [6][7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three to one year [7]. - The approved 2025 production target of the Indonesian nickel - mining association is 364 million tons, higher than that in 2024 [7]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of all EF lines, expected to affect monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7][8]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets starting from October 2025 [8]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,260, and that of the 2511 contract was 69,620. There were corresponding changes in trading volume and open interest [11]. - Various price data such as spot - contract basis, different lithium - salt product prices, and raw - material prices were provided [11]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's lithium - carbonate index price decreased. In July 2025, Chile's lithium - carbonate exports were 20,900 tons, with different changes in exports to different countries [12][13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, the Si2511 closing price was 8,700, and for polysilicon, the PS2511 closing price was 51,345. There were corresponding data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw - material costs [14]. Macro and Industry News - On August 1, the US launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset reviews on Chinese and Taiwanese crystalline - silicon photovoltaic products [15][16]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term digestion of the anti - involution in the macro - aspect did not lead to better transaction volume with price drops. Downstream buyers still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the industrial chain, ore prices and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, but some ferronickel quotes rebounded. The cost line remained low. July and August are traditional off - seasons for stainless steel consumption, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial for the increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Technically, on the daily K - line, the price is running below the 20 - day moving average. The important support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective. The main funds have not decreased, and short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD indicator shows a death cross, and the KDJ has entered the oversold area with a rebound demand. Overall, it is expected to move in a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Weak operation this week, with long - term oversupply unchanged. The macro - situation has short - term digestion, downstream purchases are rigid - demand based, and new energy vehicle data is positive [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% prices remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased by 2.95%, 3.19%, and 3.10% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: Low - grade ferronickel in Shandong decreased by 3.03%, while high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, high - grade ferronickel increased by 2.5 yuan/nickel, and low - grade ferronickel increased by 100 yuan/ton [13][46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were flat. As of July 31, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 9.9436 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state, and downstream procurement was cautious [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases. The import window opened, and some Norwegian nickel resources increased. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply pattern remains. In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons. Import and export data also showed certain changes [25][26][30]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices were weakly stable. In June 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 23,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35%. The import volume in June was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.0% [45][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased slightly. In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month. The import volume was 109,500 tons, and the export volume was 390,000 tons. As of August 1, the national inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 6,700 tons [59][64][71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June 2025, the production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [77][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The Fibonacci retracement levels are effective. The main funds are still active, short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD shows a death cross, and the KDJ is in the oversold area, indicating a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - **Influence on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore and ferronickel are neutral - bearish; refined nickel is neutral; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral - bullish [88]. - **Trading Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the disk margin follows macro - sentiment changes [4]. - For stainless steel, as the macro influence fades and it returns to the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are some positive factors, high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices [5]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is affected by upstream resumption expectations, and the price shows a weak trend [27]. - For polysilicon, there may be a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The market is policy - driven, and prices may return to the fundamentals in the short term [27]. - For lithium carbonate, the "sports - style anti - involution" cools down, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of mineral license approvals in Jiangxi. The price has dropped significantly, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The influence of macro - sentiment on the fundamentals is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. After the contradiction in the ore end fades, the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range shock judgment. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the low - cost supply increment in the long - term drags down the disk. Although the inventory of the ferronickel link has decreased, the boost to nickel prices is limited [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro influence fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. In August, the production schedule has increased slightly, but the inventory is still high, and the high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices. However, the weak upstream profit provides some cost support [5]. 3.1.2 Inventory Changes - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year [6][7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The national stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.66% week - on - week. The raw material nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but was still 56% higher year - on - year [5][8]. 3.1.3 Market News - There are multiple events such as Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.2.1 Price Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market showed a weak shock, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week), and the Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon price was 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market rose first and then fell. The spot market had weak transactions, and the Friday closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton [27]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side saw a marginal increase in weekly production. Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. The overall industry inventory decreased again. The demand side had stable short - term demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term weekly production continued to increase. The upstream inventory decreased, and there was speculative replenishment demand from the downstream. The demand side saw a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission was not smooth [29][31]. 3.2.3后市 Views - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to go short on rallies. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: There may be a short - term correction. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. It is a policy - driven market, and it is recommended to be cautious when holding positions [32][33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Price Trends - The futures contract prices of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 69,240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9,920 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 1,550 yuan/ton to 71,350 yuan/ton [61]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: The price of lithium concentrate decreased from 810 US dollars/ton to 755 US dollars/ton, and the hedging profit of purchased - ore decreased significantly. The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, a decrease of 7.31% [62]. - **Demand**: Due to the significant strengthening of the basis and end - of - month purchases, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises increased significantly. The sales volume of new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.28% week - on - week and year - on - year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased. The upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,757 tons to 11,996 tons [63]. 3.3.3后市 Views - It is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The expected operating range of the futures main - contract price is 55,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage or hedging. The unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [64][65][66].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoint - On the 31st, black - series commodities tumbled, and Shanghai nickel showed weakness, closing below the 120,000 mark again. The main contract 2509 closed down 1.79% at 119,830, with the total open interest of the index increasing by 11,234 to 190,329 lots. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and prices declined again after the cooling of macro - sentiment. The overall surplus pattern of nickel is still significant, and the nickel price is temporarily regarded as weak [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On the 31st, black - series commodities fell generally, and Shanghai nickel was weak. The main 2509 contract closed down 1.79% at 119,830, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,234 to 190,329 lots [8]. - **Supply - side Situation**: There are expectations of loose supply from the mining ends in the Philippines and Indonesia, and the probability of subsequent decline in ore prices is high. Under the pressure of losses, some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving a slight recovery in the low - level nickel - iron price. On the 31st, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel iron was reported at 912.5 yuan per nickel point, but the acceptance of high - price nickel ore remains low [8]. - **Demand - side Situation**: The stainless - steel market is still weak, in the traditional off - season of consumption with high inventory. As the nickel - iron price rises, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase scrap stainless steel for production, and the acceptance of high - nickel pig iron prices is also poor. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,370 yuan per ton on the 31st, and it stopped falling and rebounded in the short term supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants [8]. 2. Industry News - **Indonesian Investment**: Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - **Battery Energy Storage**: Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours. Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, and its approved total energy storage capacity has exceeded 1.6 gigawatts [10]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag), achieving nearly the same efficiency while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10].

Group 1 - PT Vale Indonesia reported a high nickel production of 18,557 tons in Q2, representing a 12% year-over-year increase [1] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for sustaining current nickel production levels [1] - The high nickel production target for the year is set at 71,234 tons [1]

Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the July meeting, which had a limited impact on nickel prices [2] - Indonesia's government raised nickel ore production quotas from 298.5 million wet tons to 364 million tons, but actual production was only 120 million tons, significantly below the quota [2] - Nickel ore imports in June were 4.35 million tons, down 9% year-on-year, but up 11% month-on-month, leading to an increase in nickel concentrate port inventory to 9.3146 million wet tons, returning to the median level of the past five years [2] Stainless Steel Industry - Both Indonesia and China's stainless steel industries are in a consumption lull, with profits for 200 and 400 series hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel remaining negative, while only the 300 series maintained positive margins [3] - In June, production of hot-rolled stainless steel decreased by 5.5% month-on-month, and cold-rolled stainless steel production fell by 2% [3] - Nickel pig iron (NPI) production profits in China have declined, leading to the lowest operating rates and production levels in nearly four years, with imports of NPI rising by 50% year-on-year in June [3] Battery and Alloy Demand - Domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly boosting nickel demand for batteries [4] - Nickel demand for alloys also rose, with refined nickel production reaching 210,000 tons in the first half of the year, a 41% increase year-on-year, marking a four-year high [4] - Nickel inventory levels are at their highest in four years, with LME nickel inventory at 208,000 tons, a 98% year-on-year increase [4] Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices have been fluctuating within a range since June, with a peak of 125,370 yuan/ton in July due to stimulus measures in key industries [5] - The outlook suggests that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate, especially if Indonesia increases its nickel concentrate production in response to raised quotas [6] - The overall supply-demand balance for refined nickel remains loose, with high inventory levels at LME and SHFE, indicating limited upward price momentum in the short term [6]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The lithium business, particularly the Greenbushes lithium mine, showed a production volume of 340,000 tons in Q2 2025, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, while sales volume decreased by 22% to 412,000 tons [1][3]. - The average realized price for lithium concentrate was $725 per ton, down 8% from the previous quarter [1]. - The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant produced 2,126 tons in Q2 2025, a 36% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 60% increase year-on-year, although sales volume decreased by 25% [4][6]. - The nickel business at the Nova project reported a production of 5,107 tons in Q2 2025, a 22% increase quarter-on-quarter, but a 20% decrease year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Lithium Business - Greenbushes lithium mine produced 340,000 tons in Q2 2025, with a cash production cost of A$366 per ton, up 8% year-on-year [1][3]. - Kwinana hydroxide plant's production was 2,126 tons, with a conversion cost of A$17,215 per ton, down 20% from the previous quarter [4][7]. Nickel Business - Nova project achieved a nickel production of 5,107 tons in Q2 2025, with a cash cost of A$3.97 per pound, down 23% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The average realized price for nickel decreased to A$23,261 per ton, a 7% decline from the previous quarter [8]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was A$126.9 million, a 15% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 46% decrease year-on-year [10]. - The underlying EBITDA for Q2 2025 was A$62.3 million, compared to A$34 million in the same quarter last year [11]. Production Guidance - For FY25, the Greenbushes lithium production guidance is set at 1,350,000 to 1,550,000 tons, with a cash cost guidance of A$320 to A$380 per ton [19]. - The Kwinana refinery's production guidance for FY25 is 7,000 to 8,000 tons of lithium hydroxide [19].