纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/24 SP主力合约收盘价： 5228.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5228.00 | 5298.00 | 5396.00 | 5408.00 | 5474.00 | | 折美元价 | 650.10 | 650.10 | 662.95 | 664.17 | 673.11 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.32125% | -1.81616% | -0.22189% | -1.20570% | -0.10949% | | 山东银星基差 | 262 | 212 | 154 | 142 | 76 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 272 | 212 | 144 | 132 | 76 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华财经、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 需求：结构性分化持续。白卡纸提价落地情况好，包装纸头部企业引领涨价潮，箱板纸、瓦楞 纸均价周环比均涨 80 元 / 吨；而文化纸需求依旧疲软，双胶纸即便计划提价，因缺乏需求支 撑，下游接受度低，整体需求未实现全面放量。 供给：宽松中现短期扰动。国内 10 月纸浆产量环比涨 10.2%，供给基础宽松；智利针叶浆外 盘报价下跌、阔叶浆报价上涨。不过美国木兰浆厂 11 月 20 日起临时停产，给全球供应带来短 期小幅扰动，但难改整体宽松格局。 纸浆 库存：延续高位累库态势。截至 11 月 20 日，国内主流港口纸浆样本库存量达 217.3 万吨， 较上期累库 6.3 万吨，环比涨 3.0%，其中青岛港持续宽幅累库，仅常熟港等少数港口呈窄幅去 库走势，整体库存处于年内中位水平。 利润：纸企利润分化。包装纸企业因产品提价，叠加纸浆成本稳升但传导顺畅，利润修复态势 明确；而依赖文化纸的企业仍承压，双胶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile and weak pattern in the short - term. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, with port inventories continuing to accumulate at a high level and downstream demand remaining weak, resulting in limited support for pulp prices [99]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of November 20, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 555,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.463 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.1% month - on - month increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 51,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week, a 24.4% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - In October 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 691,000 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 7.122 million tons, a 2.7% cumulative year - on - year increase. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.318 million tons, a 2.8% month - on - month decrease and an 8.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 13.826 million tons, a 10.3% cumulative year - on - year increase [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data - **Market Trends**: Included the analysis of the basis of silver star and Russian needle pulp, the spread between silver star and Russian needle pulp, and the monthly spread of 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 [13][14][19]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: On November 21, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 222 yuan/ton, a 217.14% month - on - month increase; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 28 yuan/ton, a 65.00% month - on - month increase; the spread between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 250 yuan/ton, a 66.67% month - on - month increase [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the spread between silver star and goldfish pulp was 1,050 yuan/ton, an 8.70% month - on - month decrease; the spread between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 800 yuan/ton, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease [23][25]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the import profit of silver star softwood pulp was - 76.03 yuan/ton, a 373.44% month - on - month decrease; the import profit of star hardwood pulp was 45.21 yuan/ton, a 6.32% month - on - month decrease [28][30]. - The price of imported softwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the price of silver star pulp was 5,450 yuan/ton, a 1.80% month - on - month decrease; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 3.70% month - on - month decrease [32][33]. - The price of hardwood pulp was relatively stable. On November 21, 2025, the price of goldfish pulp was 4,400 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [37]. - **Supply**: - The price of wood chips in East China was differentiated. On November 21, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 1.69% month - on - month increase; the purchase price of pine wood chips by Wuzhou Special Paper was 1,060 yuan/ton, a 9.40% month - on - month decrease [42][44]. - The price of domestic pulp was stable, and the supply of hardwood pulp increased. On November 20, 2025, the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 117,000 tons, a 27.17% month - on - month increase [46][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month; in October, the inventory days of softwood pulp in Europe decreased month - on - month [50][52]. - In August 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the shipment volume of hardwood pulp continued to be at a high level, but the inventory days were low [54][56]. - In August 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; in September, the export volume of Finland to China increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [60]. - In September 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp decreased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume of Uruguay decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [64]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 0.06% month - on - month, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the import volume of unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [66][68]. - **Demand**: - **Offset Paper**: The average price of offset paper enterprises was stable. Due to industry profitability and production and sales pressure, some factories' production lines were converted or the production load was reduced. The demand was weak, with no concentrated supply of publication orders and dull social orders [70]. - **Coated Paper**: The price of coated paper decreased slightly. Some production lines continued the maintenance state, and the supply decreased slightly. The demand was weak, with no concentrated supply of publication orders and no obvious improvement in social orders [74]. - **White Cardboard**: The market price of white cardboard was stable. The production cost increased and then stabilized. The supply was stable, and the inventory pressure of paper mills was not large. The demand was mainly for rigid needs [78]. - **Household Paper**: The market price of household paper was stable. The terminal demand did not show an obvious recovery, and the inventory pressure of some paper mills was difficult to release in the short term. The cost support of raw material pulp was weak [82]. - **Terminal Demand**: In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [86]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of November 20, 2025, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports increased for two consecutive weeks [98]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak, and the cost transmission was difficult. The downstream paper industry was not performing well, and the demand was weak. The paper mills had poor profitability and limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [99]. - **View**: The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile and weak pattern in the short - term, as the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially [99]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for single - side trading; observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading; investors meeting the suitability requirements can consider selling out - of - the - money options in the range of [5000 - 6000] [99].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升0.78%，本周增幅环比扩大0.24个百分点。出版订单尚未大规模提货，纸 厂库存消耗进度不快，且部分纸企为供应出版订单提前备库，导致行业处于累库状态。 2、据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.90%，环比下降0.30个百分点，本周降幅环比收窄0.03个百分点。规模产线基本正常 排产，江苏地区仍存检修情况，市场开工水平整体调整不大。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Jun ...

Core Points - The stock price of Shanying International (600567) closed at 1.71 yuan on November 21, 2025, down 9.04% from 1.88 yuan the previous week [1] - The company has a total market capitalization of 9.944 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the paper industry and 1808th among A-shares [1] Company Announcements - Shanying International held its third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on November 18, 2025, where several key resolutions were passed, including the reappointment of the accounting firm, increase in registered capital, cancellation of the supervisory board, and amendments to the company's articles of association [2][3] - The meeting was conducted with a combination of on-site and online voting, and all resolutions were deemed legally valid with over two-thirds of the voting rights from attending shareholders supporting the increase in registered capital and amendments to the articles of association [2][3] - The resolutions also included the revision of internal governance systems and the addition of daily related transactions, with related parties abstaining from voting on relevant proposals [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbon Market Weekly Report - Date: November 21, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of the carbon market, with policies aiming to expand coverage, control quota总量, and increase market vitality [9][10] - The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market will gradually cover major industrial emission - intensive industries by 2027, marking a new stage in using market - based mechanisms for deep - emission reduction [10] Summary by Directory 1. Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of different trading methods were also reported [7] - In the 3rd week of November, the national carbon market quota had a high of 70.14 yuan/ton, a low of 60.02 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 65.27 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 8.48%. The total trading volume was 1169.44 million tons, and the total turnover was 701.0284 million yuan. Price expectations for November and December 2025 were also given [8] 2. Market News - The central government issued an opinion to expand the carbon market's coverage, implement quota总量 control and paid distribution, and improve market vitality [9] - China's carbon market construction aligns with the "dual - carbon" goal, and will gradually implement quota总量 control and paid distribution as the carbon - peak process advances [10] - The expansion schedule of the national carbon emissions trading market was announced, with major industrial sectors to be included by 2027, covering about 75% of CO2 emissions [10] - The "Chengdu Declaration" at the 2025 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference called for anti - "involution" in the industry and promoted high - quality development [10]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 2.79% on November 21, with Qingshan Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qingshan Paper (600103) saw a significant drop of 6.30%, closing at 3.42, with a trading volume of 1.74 million shares and a turnover of 609 million yuan [2] - Other notable declines included Minfeng Special Paper (600235) down 6.13% to 6.58, and Hengda New Materials (301469) down 5.74% to 28.25 [2] - Annie Co. (002235) was one of the few gainers, increasing by 1.29% to 8.62, with a trading volume of 2.09 million shares and a turnover of 1.82 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 347 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 282 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in stocks like Huawang Technology (605377) with a net inflow of 5.94 million yuan, while stocks like Qingshan Paper experienced a net outflow of 510,900 yuan [3]

Core Insights - The expansion roadmap for China's national carbon emissions trading market has been officially unveiled, with a clear timeline for including additional industries by 2027, aiming to cover approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a quota distribution plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for 2024 and 2025, marking a significant step in the carbon market's expansion [1][4]. - By including these three industries, the total number of key emission units will reach around 3,700, covering emissions of approximately 8 billion tons, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [4]. Future Industry Inclusion - The final goal is to achieve full coverage of major emission industries in the industrial sector by 2027, with preliminary preparations already underway for the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4][5]. - Predictions suggest that once eight major industries are fully included, over 8,000 enterprises will enter the market, covering more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions nationwide [4]. Technical Preparations - The Ministry has collected and verified carbon emission data from relevant industries since 2013, laying the groundwork for scientifically determining total quotas [5]. - A comprehensive set of technical documents related to quota distribution, accounting, reporting, and verification is being expedited, alongside upgrades to the national carbon market management platform and trading systems [5]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The diversity of market participants is expected to enhance the pricing function of the carbon market, with the current closing price around 66 yuan per ton [5]. - Industry experts predict that carbon prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching between 130 to 180 yuan per ton by 2027, driven by quota control and paid distribution mechanisms [5]. Industry-Specific Impacts - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market expansion, with sectors like electricity and steel being better prepared compared to more complex industries like petrochemicals and paper [6]. - The aviation sector faces additional challenges, including external pressures such as the EU carbon border tax [6]. Future Market Development - By 2030, the goal is to establish a carbon market based on total quota control, combining free and paid distribution, to create a reasonable carbon pricing mechanism [7]. - The Ministry has indicated that total quota control will be prioritized in stable emission sectors, gradually tightening quotas to enhance market efficiency and optimize carbon reduction resource allocation [7].

36氪获悉，中信证券表示，2025年第一季度至第三季度轻工板块收入、利润承压，但其中造纸、包装印 刷率先修复，符合中信证券年中的判断。展望2026年，"反内卷"、创新与出海将成为轻工行业的发展主 线。国内市场，"反内卷"是主旋律，造纸行业预计底部改善，金属包装行业将迎来春天。AI技术（AI眼 镜、AI玩具等）将为行业注入新活力，而传统赛道的新势能也值得关注，如IP消费、产品的跨界融合与 功能性升级；国际市场，产能出海步入提效阶段，具有性价比优势、技术优势的品牌出海将是重中之 重。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The light industry sector is facing revenue and profit pressure in Q1-Q3 2025, but the paper and packaging printing industries are showing early signs of recovery, aligning with mid-year expectations [1][2] Group 1: Performance Review - The overall performance of the light industry sector is under pressure, with the home furnishing sector's net profit turning negative in Q1-Q3 2025, indicating significant profit pressure [2] - The entertainment light industry sector experienced a narrowing decline in both revenue and net profit in Q3 compared to Q2 [2] - The paper sector saw a loss in Q1, high growth in Q2, and significant growth in Q3, indicating an early recovery ahead of revenue improvements [2] - The packaging printing sector achieved a 9.6% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 12.7% increase in net profit in Q1-Q3 2025, marking it as the best performer [2] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the industry, particularly benefiting the metal packaging sector, which is anticipated to experience a revival [3] - The metal packaging industry is projected to see a concentration ratio (CR3) exceeding 70% following the acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Orijin in 2025, with total production capacity expected to decrease to approximately 76 billion cans by 2026 [3] - The paper industry is expected to improve due to cyclical recovery, with major paper manufacturers enhancing collaboration and price increases anticipated as raw material costs rise [3] Group 3: Innovation and Market Expansion - AI technology is expected to open new market opportunities for traditional industries, with AI glasses and AI toys poised for significant growth [4] - The trend of IP consumption continues to provide new growth paths for traditional consumer products, with cross-industry integration and functional upgrades becoming key breakthrough points [4] - The "going global" strategy is expected to deepen, with a focus on cost-effective production and refined overseas supply chain management [5] - Chinese brands with unique characteristics are beginning to pursue internationalization [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The metal packaging industry is anticipated to benefit from supply contraction following industry restructuring, with current valuations at historical lows [7] - The paper industry is expected to show improvement due to cyclical recovery, despite higher historical valuations, with the fastest profit growth anticipated [7] - Companies innovating in AI glasses and those optimizing product structures and sales models are recommended for investment [7] - Firms benefiting from toy product innovation and high dividend yields, as well as those with strong IP and export business, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7] - The "going global" strategy is expected to gain importance, with recommendations for industry leaders with production advantages and companies with cost-effective brand offerings [7]