Group 1 - The petrochemical industry in China is facing structural overcapacity challenges due to peak demand and declining refined oil needs, leading to excess refining capacity and overproduction of chemicals like ethylene and aromatics [1] - The average profit percentile for major chemical products in the first half of 2025 is expected to be below 50%, with PDH profits dropping to a historical low of 0% [1] - The industry needs to eliminate outdated capacity and tighten new project approvals to achieve high-quality transformation [1] Group 2 - The refining sector is experiencing peak demand and decline in refined oil, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, rather than just controlling new capacity [2] - The ethylene sector is facing overcapacity due to new oil conversion capacities and requires control over new capacity and project approvals, as well as the elimination of small projects that do not meet energy and carbon standards [2] - Unlike coal, which may not have absolute overcapacity but requires control over operating rates, the petrochemical sector is experiencing overcapacity that necessitates capacity reduction and new project approval controls [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dedication and achievements of Wang Yunqiang, the manager of the refining department at China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) Tianjin branch, showcasing his contributions to energy security and operational excellence in the refining industry [1][8]. Group 1: Professional Achievements - Wang Yunqiang has transformed from a refining operator to the leader of 32 units, demonstrating a commitment to energy security and product quality [1]. - Under his leadership, the Tianjin refining department has successfully increased gasoline production, achieving a 70% share of special gasoline in total gasoline output [5]. - Wang played a crucial role in the successful commissioning of a 10 million tons/year atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, setting a record for the shortest commissioning time in harsh conditions [3]. Group 2: Problem-Solving and Innovation - In 2009, Wang led a team to resolve over 1,000 issues in just 72 hours during a critical project phase, employing innovative "swarm" work methods to achieve a 100% pass rate on pipeline modifications [2]. - He successfully produced a special -50 low-temperature diesel for the Winter Olympics in just 7 days, overcoming significant technical challenges [4]. Group 3: Management and Training - Wang emphasizes a meticulous management style, integrating rigorous operational standards and continuous improvement practices within the refining department [6]. - He actively mentors young employees, leading to notable achievements in national skill competitions, including a third-place finish in a prestigious competition [7]. Group 4: Commitment to the Industry - Wang's long-term dedication to the refining department reflects a deep sense of loyalty and passion for his work, fostering a culture of excellence and responsibility among his team [8].

尽管IMF认可喀麦隆政府的努力，特别是在结构性改革方面的进展（根据SND30计划已完成近40项 指标），但该机构也指出喀财政成果好坏参半。报告显示，由于经常性支出超支，2024年底非石油初级 赤字达到GDP的2.4%，高于2%的目标。这一财政滑坡导致新拖欠款累积，并降低了公共投资能力。 此外，在2025年度财政修正案提交议会审议之际，IMF确信当局将根据2024年结果修订2025年预 算，并宣布支持措施以解决财政滑坡根源，确保2025年实现拖欠款项净减少。 （原标题：国际货币基金组织批准向喀麦隆拨款1.47亿美元，尽管现有成效"喜忧参半"） 除未达标外，喀麦隆还面临诸多挑战。其中最紧迫的是推进国家炼油公司（Sonara）重组，该公司 自2019年5月底遭遇严重火灾后一直处于困境。中部非洲国家银行（BEAC）行长Yvon Sana Bangui也强 调必须修复喀麦隆唯一的炼油厂，以减少石油产品进口——据他估计，这每年给中部非洲经货共同体六 国造成约2万亿中非法郎（约为33.33亿美元）的损失。IMF补充称，其他挑战还包括持续推进重大基础 设施项目建设，通过解决长期存在的薄弱环节来加强金融业，并全面实施国家金融包 ...

Group 1 - The global oil market is entering a new period of increased volatility due to unpredictable supply changes, misleading demand signals, geopolitical uncertainties, and deteriorating economic sentiment [1] - Recent abnormal fluctuations in diesel price spreads indicate that traders need a more comprehensive analytical framework to understand the market [1] - The traditional indicators, such as the diesel price spread, are failing to accurately reflect mid-term demand due to extreme weather conditions in Europe and North America [1] Group 2 - The refining industry is facing a capacity crisis, with global refining margins remaining at historically high levels despite concerns over an economic recession [2] - A total of 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in Europe is confirmed to be closing, including facilities in Grangemouth and several German refineries [2] - The impact of these closures has not yet fully reflected in current prices, indicating potential future price increases [2] Group 3 - The key observation point is whether the arbitrage trade from the Middle East and India to Europe will restart, serving as an early warning signal for regional supply tightness [3] - The phenomenon of "disappearing barrels" continues to perplex analysts, as the actual tightness in physical inventories far exceeds official supply-demand forecasts [3] - If U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela lead to further reductions in crude oil exports, it could trigger significant market disruptions this year [3]

Core Viewpoint - India plans to import approximately 10% of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the United States starting in 2026 as part of efforts to diversify energy sources and reduce trade deficit with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Import Strategy - India aims to import around 10% of its cooking LPG from the U.S. beginning in 2026 [1] - In 2024, over 90% of the approximately 20.5 million tons of LPG imported by India is expected to come from the Middle East [1] - Indian state-owned refiners have started increasing imports from the U.S. since May of this year [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - India plans to eliminate import duties on propane and butane used for LPG production from the U.S. [1] - The country is looking to the U.S. as a reliable alternative source for crude oil and LPG [1] - There is a need for diversification in LPG supply sources to enhance energy security [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - High sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant spot supplies in the near - term, while low sulfur fuel oil shows a volatile trend [1] - For trading strategies, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trades, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances as well as the digestion of near - term high sulfur spot [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - High sulfur: The number of buyers in the high sulfur spot window has increased, and low - price transactions have hit the high sulfur spot premium, which has fallen below zero. High inventories in Singapore and increased near - term domestic spot arrivals have pressured prices. Russian supply is expected to recover in July, but there are still risks due to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. High sulfur seasonal power generation demand remains supportive in the third quarter, with strong demand in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. There are expectations of an increase in China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction, which may boost feed demand [4] - Low sulfur: The low sulfur fuel oil spot premium is volatile. Supply is continuously increasing, and downstream demand lacks specific drivers. Supply from Nigeria, South Sudan, and Al - Zour refinery is increasing, and China's low sulfur production is expected to grow in June, with sufficient supply and stable demand [4] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see, and pay attention to the digestion of near - term high sulfur spot [5] - Options: No specific view [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Supply - related - Russia: Off - line refining capacity is expected to decrease in July. Exports of high sulfur fuel oil have started to recover in the past two weeks. The EU plans to intensify sanctions, including lowering the oil price cap [7] - Mexico: The supply of high sulfur fuel oil has fallen to the level before the Olmeca refinery's production. The Olmeca refinery's operation is improving, and other refineries' processing volumes have changed. High sulfur exports in June were at a low level but showed a rebound in the first week of July [10] - Middle East: The sentiment of the Iran - Israel conflict has subsided, but the US sanctions on Iran continue. Summer power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may divert supply. High sulfur exports in June were at a low level [15] Demand - related - High sulfur power generation: Egypt's high sulfur fuel oil procurement is strong due to summer power generation demand. South Asia's power generation demand is near the end, and the Middle East's power generation demand is expected to remain strong in July [16] - China's demand: The expected increase in the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio may support feed demand. China's high sulfur fuel oil imports rebounded in June [22] - High sulfur marine fuel: Demand is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships with desulfurization towers [23] Low sulfur fuel oil - South Sudan: The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw material Dar Blend is steadily recovering, with multiple export tenders [26] - Al - Zour refinery: Low - sulfur exports are expected to remain at a high level, and supply to the pan - Singapore area has increased [27] - Nigeria: Near - term low - sulfur supply is abundant, mainly flowing to Singapore. The Dangote refinery's FCC gasoline unit is still unstable [30] - China: The domestic low - sulfur market has stable production, and the third - batch export quota is expected to be issued soon, with sufficient quotas [38] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Fuel oil spot: Data on the prices of Brent, HSFO380, LSFO, etc., and their spreads are presented [40] - High sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - term spreads, and spot premiums are provided [47] - Low sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - variety spreads, and spot premiums are provided [53] - Gasoline - fuel oil ratio: Data on the equivalent - calorific - value prices of different fuels are presented [60] - Cross - regional freight: Data on freight rates from different regions are provided [62] - Singapore filling spreads: Data on high - sulfur and low - sulfur filling spreads in Singapore are presented [65] - Fuel oil inventory: Data on fuel oil inventories in Singapore, ARA, US, etc., and the total inventory of five countries are provided [68] - Inventory structure in different regions: Data on gasoline, diesel, and refined oil inventories in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf are provided [70][72] - Terminal sales: Singapore's marine fuel sales data for May are announced, including high - sulfur and low - sulfur sales volumes and their proportions [74]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

英国政府达成协议，重启林赛（炼油厂）的燃料供应。 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 沥青供应端影响因素 ——沥青专题报告（三） 2025年7月4日 • 安婧 • anjing@cmschina.com.cn • 执业资格号Z0014623 沥青的转产工艺 数据来源： 《炼油厂总工艺流程设计 ➢ 沥青转产焦化料的原理：焦化料顾名 思义是指延迟焦化装置的原料，从左 图可知焦化料即是调和或未调和的 减 压渣油，并且由图可知延迟焦化装置 和沥青氧化 /调和装置的原料相同， 因此焦化料（减压渣油）若用于产沥 青则不能用于延迟焦化装置，使得两 条生产线存在"此消彼长"的关系。 ➢ 转产一般只发生在地方炼厂，因沥青 是地炼的主产品，沥青利润对地炼综 合利润起决定性作用，但对于主营炼 厂而言，沥青是其副产品，主营炼厂 的开工率 /产量主要考虑的是炼油综 合利润。 ➢ 由于产沥青的地炼通常加工的是中重 质高硫原油，因此这里的焦化料（减 压渣油）通常指的是高硫渣油。 ➢ 炼厂可根据沥青生产利润以及通过对 比沥青价格与焦化料价格来调节道路 》，招商期货 沥青的产量。 沥青供应影响因素分析——地炼利润 理论上，地炼沥青产量调整的逻辑推演： 1.首先，只有沥青生产利润>0时，炼厂才会生产沥 ...

俄罗斯方面称，在夜间袭击中击中了乌克兰的无人机工厂、军事机场和炼油厂。 ...