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中煤能源(601898):成本管控、价格回升,煤炭业绩保持稳健
Xinda Securities· 2025-10-28 10:34
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal business maintains resilience in profitability due to effective cost control and price recovery, despite a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expected to see stable performance and growth driven by ongoing projects and an increase in shareholder returns in the future [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 110.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.485 billion yuan, down 14.6% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter operating revenue of 36.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.8%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 474 yuan/ton, down 17.0% year-on-year, while the unit sales cost decreased by 10.1% to 257.67 yuan/ton [3] Production and Sales Overview - The company produced 101.58 million tons of self-produced coal in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, while sales increased by 1.1% to 101.45 million tons [3] - The report indicates that the company is expected to increase production capacity with new mines coming online in 2026, contributing to future growth [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The report emphasizes successful cost management strategies that have mitigated the impact of falling prices, allowing the coal business to maintain profitability [3] - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve, with estimates of 26.8%, 27.6%, and 28.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 17.3 billion yuan for 2025, with expected growth to 18.4 billion yuan in 2026 and 19.4 billion yuan in 2027 [4][5]
中煤能源(601898)公司点评报告:煤价环升叠加降本 业绩稳健致远可期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 08:28
Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 110.6 billion yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 36.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters, the company sold 19.036 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 10.145 million tons, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 469 yuan/ton, down 18.2% year-on-year, while the average price for self-produced coal was 474 yuan/ton, down 17% year-on-year [2] Cost and Margin Insights - The cost of self-produced commodity coal was 258 yuan/ton, down 10.1% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 216 yuan/ton, down 23.9% year-on-year [2] - The company’s coal revenue was 89.3 billion yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year, with operating costs at 66.8 billion yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 22.5 billion yuan, down 23.0% year-on-year [2] Product Performance - The company saw a significant improvement in methanol profitability, with methanol sales of 1.5 million tons, up 24.0% year-on-year, and a gross profit of 488 yuan/ton, an increase of 502 yuan [3] - Urea sales increased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the average price decreased by 18.2% [3] New Capacity and Projects - The company is advancing new coal, electricity, and renewable energy projects, including the commissioning of new coal mines and the construction of coal chemical projects [3] - The company is also implementing several photovoltaic projects and accelerating the development of renewable energy initiatives [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 17.0 billion yuan, 18.5 billion yuan, and 19.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -11.89%, +8.36%, and +5.25% respectively [4]
华谊集团跌2.01%,成交额1.01亿元,主力资金净流入157.81万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 06:00
Group 1 - The stock price of Huayi Group fell by 2.01% on October 28, trading at 7.82 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 16.601 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Huayi Group's stock price has increased by 14.66%, but it has seen a decline of 12.63% in the last five trading days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent appearance on October 22, where it recorded a net buy of -559.63 million CNY [1] Group 2 - Huayi Group, established on August 5, 1992, is located in Shanghai and primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of tires, energy chemicals, fine chemicals, and chemical services [2] - The main business revenue composition includes fine chemicals (19.84%), tire manufacturing (12.51%), and energy chemicals (8.71%) among others [2] Group 3 - As of September 30, Huayi Group had 55,200 shareholders, a decrease of 4.81% from the previous period, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [3] - For the period from January to September 2025, Huayi Group achieved a revenue of 35.987 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.50% to 395 million CNY [3] Group 4 - Since its A-share listing, Huayi Group has distributed a total of 4.298 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.064 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [4] - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the sixth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 13.8265 million shares, an increase of 3.1768 million shares from the previous period [4]
光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251028
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 03:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures and spot markets are expected to have a phased rebound, but over - bullish sentiment is not recommended. The price increase suppresses the purchasing willingness of the middle and lower reaches, and the fundamental driving force is still limited. Attention should be paid to demand follow - up, India tender results, export policy dynamics, macro - sentiment, and the overall trend of the commodity market [2]. - The supply - demand side of soda ash has insufficient driving force, but the futures price may follow the macro - sentiment to warm up periodically. The upside space is restricted by the fundamental pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, the overall trend of the commodity market, and changes in the downstream production capacity of soda ash [2]. - The demand sentiment of glass has slightly improved but with limited strength. The futures market has obvious bottom characteristics and may rise periodically following the macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the macro - policy and fundamentals can resonate periodically, as well as the spot trading situation of glass and the overall trend of the commodity market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Urea - On Monday, the urea futures price fluctuated widely, with the main 01 contract closing at 1640 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot market continued to recover, with prices in Shandong and Henan rising to 1610 yuan/ton and 1590 yuan/ton respectively. The daily output of the industry was 18.88 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous day. The demand sentiment in some areas continued to warm up, but there was still obvious differentiation between regions. The price increase suppressed the purchasing willingness of the middle and lower reaches, and the market was mainly in a phased rebound [2]. Soda Ash - On Monday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main 01 contract closing at 1246 yuan/ton, a 1.38% increase. The industry's operating rate dropped to 85.53%. The demand side had no obvious trend, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly on Monday. The supply - demand side had insufficient driving force, but the futures price might follow the macro - sentiment to warm up periodically [2]. Glass - On Monday, the glass futures price fluctuated firmly, with the main 01 contract closing at 1095 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease. The spot market continued to weaken. The supply level had no obvious change, and the spot trading slightly recovered. The demand sentiment improved slightly, and the futures market might rise periodically following the macro - sentiment [2]. Market Information Urea - On October 27, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 5288, a decrease of 119 from the previous day, with 296 valid forecasts. The daily output of the industry was 18.88 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous day and 0.14 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 80.71%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points from the same period last year. The spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend [5]. Soda Ash and Glass - On October 27, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 8745, a decrease of 1189 from the previous day, with 819 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 447, a decrease of 8 from the previous day. The spot prices of soda ash in various regions were mostly stable. The industry's operating rate was 85.53%, a decrease from the previous day. The average price of the float glass market was 1167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output was 16.13 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, as well as the price difference between different contracts and the price difference between different varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][14][17][18][19]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [23]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [23]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy [23].
迁安中化多措并举增收节支
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-10-28 02:47
Core Viewpoint - The company has implemented multiple measures to increase revenue and reduce costs, achieving significant results in cost reduction and efficiency improvement through innovative management practices [1] Group 1: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The company conducted a "big promotion" campaign for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, recognizing "pioneers" in this initiative [1] - A demonstration position for cost reduction was established, where the coking workshop inspection team saved over 210,000 yuan by automating the operation of the No. 4 electric locomotive [1] - The chemical workshop's oil depot team improved the tar dehydration process, generating over 1.5 million yuan in revenue by strictly controlling the water content in tar sales during the third quarter [1] - An inspection staff member in the chemical workshop saved a total of 940,000 yuan through spare parts substitution, energy-saving modifications, and waste recycling efforts [1] Group 2: Micro-Innovation Initiatives - Employees in the dry quenching workshop proposed modifications to the dust collection pipeline and automatic grease pump, enhancing pipeline wear resistance and reducing on-site environmental pollution risks [1] - An inspection staff member addressed leakage points in the desulfurization regeneration tower using a "strong magnet + titanium rod" combination method, significantly reducing leakage duration and maintenance costs without the need for hot work [1]
神木煤化工前三季度创效逾1400万
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-10-28 02:47
神木煤化工主动对接各类惠企政策,实现"政策红利"向"发展实效"的高效转化,累计获得各级专项基 金、奖补、税收减免等570余万元;积极申报并充分享受西部大开发企业所得税减免及节能专用设备抵免 政策,获税款减免412.1万元;积极争取专项支持,旗下联众公司获中小企业转型,外贸发展等基金86万 元,五洲公司获中央外贸发展基金15万元,形成"内生动力+外部助力"的良性循环。 神木煤化工聚焦生产环节的痛点难点,以技改升级破解发展瓶颈。该公司脱硫氨水系统通过增设备用储 罐,引进低成本试用氨水,既破解难题,又实现年节约氨水成本288万元;电石炉创新采用"皮带固定转 运"模式,单月创效3.4万元;实施锅炉燃烧优化项目,创效106.48万元;实施4号锅炉空预器在线冲洗,年 节约成本85.77万元。 神木煤化工秉持"向管理要效益、向细节要利润"的理念,将成本管控融入经营全链条管理,通过盘活办 公闲置物资,让"沉睡资产"焕发生机;优化人力成本结构,适时调整津补贴,年节约费用8.28万元;创新 资金管理模式,签订2025年低价购电合同,年节约电费322.25万元。 中化新网讯 2025年,神木煤化工能源公司从技术革新、精益管理、外部 ...
中国中煤能源股份有限公司2025年第三季度报告
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in coal business revenue and profit for the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to falling coal prices and reduced sales volume [6][8][10]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the coal business achieved operating revenue of 89.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.52 billion yuan or 24.2% compared to 117.85 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [6][7]. - The revenue from self-produced coal sales was 48.13 billion yuan, down 9.18 billion yuan or 16.0% year-on-year, mainly due to a price drop of 97 yuan per ton [6][7]. - The operating cost for the coal business was 66.81 billion yuan, a reduction of 21.79 billion yuan or 24.6% compared to 88.60 billion yuan in the previous year [7][8]. - The gross profit for the coal business was 22.52 billion yuan, down 6.73 billion yuan or 23.0% from 29.25 billion yuan in the same period last year [8][9]. Production and Sales Data - The total sales volume of coal for the first nine months of 2025 was 14.45 million tons, an increase from 12.94 million tons in the same period of 2024 [9]. - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal was 257.67 yuan per ton, a decrease of 28.93 yuan per ton or 10.1% year-on-year [9]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the company held 7,614,346,308 A-shares, accounting for 57.43% of the total issued share capital [10][11]. - The company’s major shareholders include China Coal Energy Group, which holds approximately 58.43% of the total issued share capital through its subsidiaries [10][11]. Board Meeting Decisions - The board approved the third-quarter report for 2025 with unanimous support [15][16]. - The board also approved the acquisition of a 30% stake in Shanxi Zhongmei Pingshuo New Energy Co., Ltd. for 114.93 million yuan [15][16]. - Additionally, the board approved revisions to the senior management compensation management measures and the compensation plans for 2024 and 2025 [17][19].
国投期货化工日报-20251027
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 12:02
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified in the report [1] - Methanol: Not specified in the report [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified in the report [1] - Styrene: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1][9] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Plastic: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - PVC: Not specified in the report [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - PX: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - PTA: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - Glass: Not specified in the report [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] 2. Core Views - The prices of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment. For example, short - term oil price fluctuations affect the cost of some products, and supply - side changes and downstream demand trends determine the price trends of different products [2][3][5] - Different products have different price trends and investment suggestions. Some products are expected to have long - term downward pressure due to over - supply, while others may have short - term rebounds due to certain events but still face long - term challenges [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly. Short - term oil price increases support costs, but supply pressure is difficult to relieve due to expected increases in supply [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures close slightly higher. For polyethylene, domestic supply increases, demand has both positive and negative factors, and cost and macro - news support the market. For polypropylene, supply is abundant, and downstream demand provides limited support [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of traditional benzene is weak. Port inventory is decreasing, but mid - term import pressure is high. The focus is on port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average. Short - term oil price rebounds relieve cost pressure, but long - term price is suppressed by high inventory [3] 3.3 Polyester - PX and PTA prices are weak in the morning and rebound in the afternoon. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. Supply pressure is high. Based on the industry meeting news, there is an expectation of "anti - involution" [5] - Ethylene glycol production increases. The polyester industry chain rebounds, driving ethylene glycol up. Short - term negatives weaken, but mid - term inventory accumulation is expected [5] - Short - fiber has a good spot pattern, but may accumulate inventory again. Bottle - chip demand is weak, and long - term pressure comes from over - capacity [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures remain at a low level. Port inventory increases slightly, and the market is likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [6] - Urea price increase lacks momentum. Supply - demand imbalance persists, but there may be a phased rebound at low prices [6] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC price rises slightly at a low level. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may operate in a bottom - range [7] - Caustic soda price fluctuates at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is average, so the price is expected to remain low [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash price fluctuates strongly. Cost increases, supply is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling near the cost of traditional soda ash [8] - Glass price fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is increasing, and the price decline may be limited due to low valuation [8]
中煤能源(01898) - 海外监管公告-2025年第三季度报告
2025-10-27 09:34
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 ( 于中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ) (股份代號:01898) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而發表。 以下爲中國中煤能源股份有限公司於上海證券交易所網站刊發之《中國中煤能源股 份有限公司 2025 年第三季度報告》。 承董事會命 中國中煤能源股份有限公司 董事長、執行董事 王樹東 中國 北京 2025 年 10 月 27 日 於本公告刊發日期,本公司的執行董事為王樹東、廖華軍和趙榮哲;非執行董事為徐倩; 獨立非執行董事為景奉儒、詹豔景和黃江天。 * 僅供識別 中国中煤能源股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 证券代码:601898 证券简称:中煤能源 中国中煤能源股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: ...
甲醇周报:港口库存高位、伊朗限气预期仍存,甲醇博弈持续-20251027
Chang An Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 07:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears around cost and inventory. The futures main contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, while most spot prices fell, and the market trading sentiment was poor. Domestic methanol production has been declining continuously, but many sets of devices have restart plans recently, so supply is expected to pick up. Imported goods are affected by sanctions, weather and other factors, and the unloading speed is lower than expected, which eases the inventory - building pressure to some extent. However, the downstream's recent purchasing willingness is poor and the floating storage at sea is large, so the probability of continued inventory - building at ports in the future is still high, and the current bullish driving force is still insufficient. In the medium term, Iranian devices are likely to reduce or stop production due to gas restrictions in the fourth quarter. Once the gas restrictions start ahead of schedule, Iranian supply may drop precipitously, which will support the methanol price. Attention should be paid to the operation of overseas devices. [1][25] Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures first declined and then rebounded. The main 2601 contract dropped to a minimum of 2,233 yuan/ton and then rebounded, with the weekly line closing flat. The trading volume decreased by about 220,000 lots to 3.48 million lots compared with the previous week, and market sentiment became more cautious. Most spot prices fell. The port market prices continued to weaken, and the market negotiation atmosphere was average. Downstream and traders mainly entered the market for low - price rigid demand. The inland market first declined and then rebounded. The external procurement of olefin plants in Inner Mongolia boosted the regional demand, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, but the overall increase was limited. The prices in the southwest region rose due to low inventory and cost support. [5] 2. Supply Side - Domestic supply is expected to pick up. From January to September, the cumulative domestic methanol production was 75.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.05 million tons or 11.96%. In September, the monthly output was 8.0914 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 280,000 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 260,000 tons. Recently, the number of methanol maintenance devices has increased, and the capacity utilization rate and output have continued to decline. However, many sets of devices such as Ningxia Changyi, Guangju New Materials, and Zhongmei Yuanxing are planned to restart this week, involving a capacity of over 3 million tons/year. It is expected that domestic supply will pick up again. As of October 24, the domestic methanol device capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 1.9435 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 74,100 tons. [6][7] - Overseas device operating rates declined slightly. In Iran, Kimiya restarted after a short - term shutdown last week, Marjan had a technical failure and temporarily stopped, and Apadana stopped. In non - Iranian regions, only the large M5 device of South American MHTL was operating. As winter approaches, Iran will gradually restrict industrial gas use to ensure domestic gas supply. Methanol production highly depends on natural gas, so it is the core target of gas restrictions. High - frequency data shows that on the week of October 24, the overseas methanol device capacity utilization rate was 73.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78 percentage points, 2.36 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weekly output was 1.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,000 tons, slightly higher than the same period last year by 1,400 tons. [9] 3. Demand Side - The peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" are coming to an end, and demand is unlikely to grow. In the East China region, the methanol price fluctuated weakly. Due to the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices followed the decline, and the decline was greater than that of methanol. The losses of MTO devices expanded, and some devices reduced their operating rates, with the capacity utilization rate declining. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the device losses were repaired, and the suppression of methanol was alleviated. On the week of October 24, the MTO device capacity utilization rate was 90.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.96 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.58 percentage points. [11] - The operating rates of traditional downstream devices showed mixed trends. Most downstream enterprises were in a loss state, which limited their production enthusiasm, and the overall procurement rhythm was slow. On the week of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid devices was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 20.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether devices was 5.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde devices was 39.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.27 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Shandong MTBE devices was 67.79%, a month - on - month increase of 4.67 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.51 percentage points. [15] 4. Inventory - Last week, the arrival volume at coastal ports was 352,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. At the same time, the提货 volume in Jiangsu decreased, and the ports started to build up inventory again. There are still many foreign trade ships in transit, and the subsequent arrival volume is high, so the port inventory pressure continues, and the inventory inflection point has not appeared, which limits the upside space of methanol. The manufacturers' inventory fluctuated slightly. Some devices were under maintenance, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is expected that the manufacturers' inventory will decline slightly this week. On the week of October 24, the social inventory was 1.5122 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 403,500 tons. Among them, the port inventory was 1.8726 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 317,600 tons; the manufacturers' inventory was 360,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 85,900 tons; the downstream enterprises' inventory was 163,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 29,200 tons. [16] 5. Cost Side - Recently, coal prices have risen, and the profits of methanol devices have been poor. The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based production have shrunk, while gas - based production has remained in a loss state. After the National Day, coal prices continued to rise, but the increase has narrowed since last week. At the end of the week, the market sentiment weakened. Shenhua lowered the purchase price, and port traders were more willing to sell. Many mines at the pithead lowered their selling prices. On the supply side, last week, the capacity utilization rate of 462 mines in the country was 91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 percentage points, and the daily output was 547,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,300 tons. Near the end of the month, some mines will stop production, and the supply of market coal will shrink slightly. In addition, the supervision of over - production is still strict, and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, last week, the cold air moved south, the daily consumption of southern power plants decreased, and most power plant inventories were above the safety line, so the short - term replenishment willingness was average. In the north, some areas have started heating, and the procurement enthusiasm of power plants has increased, and demand has improved. In general, under policies such as safety supervision and strict inspection of over - production, the supply side is difficult to increase. On the demand side, northern regions are starting winter storage one after another, and the market purchasing sentiment has improved. However, due to the alleviation of high temperatures in the south and the rapid rise of coal prices before, the downstream's resistance mentality has become stronger, and the upward support for coal prices has weakened, and there may be a correction. [20] 6. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and new sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia activated the geopolitical risk premium, and oil prices rose rapidly, driving the petrochemical sector to stop falling. In terms of supply and demand, although there was positive support for US inventories last week, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that in the four weeks as of October 17, the average daily total demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.474 million barrels, 0.1% lower than the same period last year, and the weak demand signal restricted the rebound height. The macro - level probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October exceeded 90%, which provided support. This week, oil prices will still be under the combined effect of "geopolitical support + supply - demand suppression". Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on October 28 and the China - US talks at the APEC Summit in early November. [24]