Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward adjustment of freight rates by MSC and OOCL in August has a bearish impact on the market [1]. - The 8 - month contract shows high - level volatility, and the top of the freight rate has emerged. The final delivery settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points, but there is still uncertainty [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with large expected fluctuations [5]. - The 12 - month contract still follows the peak - off - peak pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. If it resumes, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU [8]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 30, 2025, the positions of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures are 79,320.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 76,715.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1532.00, 1386.10, 1514.20, 2139.00, 1468.70, and 1738.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On July 25, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2090.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2067.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3378.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 28, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1284.01 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The monthly average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route in August 2025 is 303,200 TEU, and in September it is 289,800 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA alliance, and there are currently 5 TBNs in August and 3 in September. Maersk added an extra - sailing ship in Week 32 and is expected to add one in Week 34 [3]. - As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [8]. 4. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical uncertainty, such as the ongoing cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which may affect the shipping supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis of demand and European economy is provided in the text. However, the freight rate trends of different contracts are related to market demand and economic conditions. For example, the 12 - month contract is affected by the peak - season demand before Western holidays [6][7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, tariff hikes, and high negotiation difficulty, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract, partially take profits, and take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, paying attention to subsequent market trends and setting stop - losses [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [3]. - On July 30, the main contract 2510 closed at 1468.7, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 66,300 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, an increase of 4148 lots from the previous day [4]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, expected to be 49.8, the same as the previous value; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, expected to be 50.5, the same as the previous value; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, expected to be - 6, higher than the previous value of - 8.1 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, back above the critical point [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [3]. Policy and Event Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases [4]. - The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been determined, with a slight price increase [4]. - The China - US economic and trade talks ended. It was stated that the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that had been suspended and China's counter - measures would continue to be extended for 90 days. The overall market sentiment was strong, and the market rose and then fell back [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), partially take profits; take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodities futures mostly closed higher, with the crude oil sector generally rising [1]. - Overseas commodity demand is experiencing a short - term weak recovery, housing prices are weakly stable, and job vacancies are lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and earnings reports. The US tariff policies may be implemented, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - The tone of the domestic policy meeting is in line with expectations, focusing on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. Policies will be more flexible and forward - looking. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries, and domestic demand is stable with resilient exports [7]. - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A weak US dollar pattern persists in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US May FHFA housing price index monthly rate was - 0.2%. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level. US June JOLTs job vacancies were 7.437 million, lower than expected. US tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Politburo meeting's policy tone is in line with expectations, emphasizing using existing policies effectively. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are resilient [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, pay attention to multiple risks. Maintain strategic allocations to resources like gold and copper [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the strengthening of the technology - growth sector. Index options may experience volatile movements. Treasury bond futures will be affected by the Politburo meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase, affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment of the shipping industry has declined. The focus is on the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate of container shipping to Europe [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The trend of black building materials has reversed. Most varieties are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as production, cost, and policy [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to receive support from the upcoming stable - growth plan. Most non - ferrous metal prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is increasing. Most chemical products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. Some products like asphalt and high/low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline [10]. - **Agriculture**: Cotton prices have declined, and the month - spread has decreased. Most agricultural products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [10].

2025 年 7 月 31 日 运指数(欧线):10空单 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2508 | 2.139.0 | 1.59% | 1.302 | 5.597 | -329 | 0.23 | 0. 51 | | | EC2510 | 1.468.7 | -0. 45% | 66, 330 | 54, 874 | 4, 148 | 1.21 | 0.82 | | | EC2512 | 1. 738. 0 | 0. 20% | 5.748 | 8. 505 | 374 | 0. 68 | 0. 49 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/7/28 | | 单位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Central Political Bureau meeting maintained a stable tone, emphasizing the optimization of existing policies and some structural increments. The stock market is expected to remain at a relatively high risk - preference level due to the demand for a long - bull market [1]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell downplayed the expectation of a September rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the US dollar index [2]. - The July Political Bureau meeting announced limited incremental policies, and the policy risks faced by the bond market significantly decreased. There is a chance to start trying to go long [3]. - The oil market continued to rise, while the EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased [6]. - The steel price declined significantly. The Political Bureau meeting did not give further expectations on "anti - involution", causing a decline in market sentiment. The long - term impact of "anti - involution" is worthy of attention, but short - term trading is difficult, and market fluctuations remain large [5]. - The grease market continued to fluctuate. The poor rapeseed harvest in Ukraine led to an increase in the price of rapeseed oil [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3%, better than expected. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, with internal differences. Gold prices fell significantly by more than 1%. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - This year, the preliminary budget for childcare subsidies is about 90 billion yuan, and the application will be fully open by August 31. The Political Bureau meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability, and the stock market is expected to remain at a high risk - preference level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [15][16][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July. Powell downplayed the September rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar index rose significantly. It is recommended that the US dollar index will rebound in the short term [20][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed continued to hold off on rate changes, with two voting members supporting rate cuts. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3%, better than expected. Market risk preference declined slightly. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction due to economic data falling short of expectations [24][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The July Political Bureau meeting highly evaluated the economic development in the first half of the year, and the incremental policies were limited. The policy risks faced by the bond market decreased. The long - end variety spread may rise moderately. It is recommended to start trying to go long [27][28][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction in Linfen mostly continued to rise. Coke started the third round of price increases. The short - term price may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to position management [31][32][33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is rising. The US soybean产区 has good weather, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. It is recommended to view the internal and external futures prices with a volatile mindset [34][35][36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is expected to export more than 5 million tons of palm oil to India. The grease market continued to fluctuate. Rapeseed oil rose due to the poor rapeseed harvest in Ukraine. It is recommended to buy on dips [37][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized capacity governance. Steel prices declined, and market sentiment slipped. The short - term market may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious [40][41][42]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to remain in low - level volatility [43][44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port corn spot price remained stagnant. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. It is recommended to hold short positions in new crops [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The northern port steam coal price remained stable. The short - term coal price is expected to continue to fluctuate due to factors such as rainfall and environmental inspections [46][47]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest over $700 million in an iron ore project. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limits of some polysilicon futures contracts were adjusted. The spot transaction average price increased. The short - term polysilicon price is expected to run between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips [49][50][51]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal increased. The industrial silicon production may increase. The price is expected to run between 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [52][53][54]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale Indonesia plans to develop a nickel project. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The short - term raw material price is weakening, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [55][56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto expanded its lithium business in Quebec. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures decreased after position limits. It is not recommended to short too early, and long positions need to wait for safer points [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - An energy storage project using lead - carbon batteries started. The Shanghai lead futures maintained a weak and volatile pattern. In the short term, pay attention to buying on dips and manage positions well [60][62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Grupo Mexico's second - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 56% year - on - year. The Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [64][66][67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen LPG increased. The US C3 inventory increased. Pay attention to the release of the August CP [68][69]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA US commercial crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices continued to rise, supported by short - term geopolitical risks. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp varied. The futures price of pulp decreased. It is expected to follow the commodity market correction [74][75]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price was range - bound. The futures price fluctuated. It is expected to follow the commodity market correction [76][77]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price of Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical remained stable. The futures price increase declined. The short - term market may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The futures price increase declined. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies [79]. 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The proportion of West African dry bulk freight volume soared. The container freight rate price inflection point was confirmed. It is recommended to pay attention to the decline slope of the freight rate [80][82][83].

Group 1 - CARAVEL MARITIME VENTURES INC. increased its stake in Pacific Basin Shipping (02343.HK) by acquiring 3.03 million shares at an average price of HKD 2.2927 per share, totaling approximately HKD 6.9469 million [1] - Following the acquisition, CARAVEL MARITIME VENTURES INC.'s total shareholding reached 835,906,401 shares, raising its ownership percentage from 15.94% to 16.00% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury has imposed sanctions on 15 shipping companies, 52 vessels, 12 individuals, and 53 entities across 17 countries involved in evading sanctions against Iran [1]

Group 1 - The shipping industry is experiencing a downturn in demand during the traditional peak season of July, with insufficient cargo supply affecting both European and American routes [1] - The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped to 1592.59 points on July 25, marking a 3.3% decrease and a 28.91% decline from the peak on June 6 [1] - Freight rates for shipping from Shanghai to the West Coast and East Coast of the U.S. have decreased significantly, with rates falling by 63.13% and 51.31% respectively from their recent highs [1] Group 2 - The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) reported a 3.3% week-on-week decline, averaging $2517 per FEU, continuing a six-week downward trend [2] - Shipping companies are beginning to reduce capacity in an effort to stabilize freight rates, with the number of blank sailings expected to increase by 59% during weeks 30 to 34 [2] - BIMCO has revised its growth rate expectations for North American imports, predicting a modest annual growth rate of only 1.6% for 2025-2026, the lowest among global regions [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings for Q2 2025 of EUR 9 million or EUR 0.02 per share, with TCE rates increasing throughout the year [7] - EBITDAR for Q2 was reported at EUR 22.4 million, with earnings per share of $0.22, reflecting a downward trajectory on cash breakeven [21][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MRs earned $23,500 per day in Q2 and $25,500 so far in Q3, with 50% booked [7] - Chemical tankers earned $20,400 per day in Q2 and $21,700 in Q3, with 65% booked [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - OPEC plus is expected to increase supply by an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil per day by September, driving trading activity [13] - Low diesel inventories in Europe have led to increased crack spreads, incentivizing refinery production [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company executed transactions to acquire three high-quality MR tankers, enhancing performance and earnings power [9] - A comprehensive refinancing was completed, consolidating existing debt into a single revolving credit facility, enhancing financial flexibility [10][20] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that market dynamics remain favorable due to stronger refining margins and geopolitical factors [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from shifting trade flows and market volatility, with a focus on maintaining low cash breakeven [36][37] Other Important Information - The company declared its eleventh consecutive dividend since reinitiating its dividend policy in 2022 [12] - The MarineLine project is nearly completed, enhancing trading flexibility and attracting premium cargoes [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the acquisition of MR tankers and balance sheet stress - Management emphasized the focus on value and being opportunistic in capital allocation, with no immediate rush to optimize for a specific growth target [31][32] Question: Impact of U.S. pressure on Russia and its effect on the product market - Management indicated that geopolitical shifts create volatility that benefits the product tanker market, with a focus on positioning for changing trade flows [36][37]

Core Points - The main revenue composition of Bohai Ferry for the year 2024 is as follows: passenger roll-on/roll-off transport accounts for 87.89%, cargo roll-on/roll-off transport accounts for 12.01%, other businesses account for 0.07%, and other categories account for 0.03% [1] - As of the announcement date, the company's general manager, Mr. Yu Xinjian, holds 1.16 million shares, representing 0.2473% of the total share capital, while the board secretary, Mr. Ning Wu, holds 510,000 shares, representing 0.1087% of the total share capital [3] - The general manager and the board secretary plan to reduce their holdings through centralized bidding, with a maximum of approximately 150,000 shares (0.0311% of total share capital) for Mr. Yu and approximately 130,000 shares (0.0272% of total share capital) for Mr. Ning [3]