| SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1110.57点，较上期下跌3.26% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1422.9点，较上期下跌1.20% | | 7月25日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1120.51点，较上期下跌5.19% 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1592.59点，较上期下跌54.31点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1261.35点，较上期下跌3.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2090USD/TEU, 较上期上涨0.53% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2067USD/FEU, 较上期下跌3.50% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1787.24点，较上期下跌0.9% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The freight rates have entered a downward cycle. The August contract is experiencing high-level fluctuations and a game around delivery, with the freight rate peak likely having emerged. The October contract is mainly for short allocation during the off-season, with a focus on the downward slope of freight rates. The December contract follows the off-peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategies are to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and to short the October contract on rallies [1][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price As of July 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index on the European route was 74,980 lots, with a single-day trading volume of 50,661 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1,521.30, 1,370.00, 1,504.90, 2,111.00, 1,460.00, and 1,735.00 respectively [5]. 2. Spot Price On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2,079.00 USD/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2,142.00 USD/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3,612.00 USD/FEU. On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,316.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1,284.01 points [5]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply In August 2025, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports was 303,200 TEU, and in September, it was 289,800 TEU. In August, there were 4 blank sailings, all from the OA Alliance, and 5 TBNs; in September, there were 3 TBNs. Maersk added a chartered vessel, Beijing Maersk (15,780 TEU), in Week 32 and is expected to add Maersk Emden (13,092 TEU) in Week 34. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU [2][5]. 4. Supply Chain Geopolitical events include Houthi hypersonic missile attacks on Israeli airports and the departure of a Hamas delegation for Gaza ceasefire negotiations from Qatar. The report also mentions the daily passage of container ships through the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal [1]. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific information on demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general analysis of contract trends related to demand and seasonality.

Summary of Haitong Development Conference Call Company Overview - Haitong Development is the seventh largest shipping company in China, with the actual controller, Zeng Erbin, holding 58% of the shares. The company has rapidly expanded its capacity, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2019 to 2024. International business accounts for 65% of revenue and 92.5% of gross profit [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders peaked at 670 million yuan in 2022 but declined in 2023. A rapid growth rate is expected in 2024, although profits are projected to significantly drop in the first half of 2025 due to a decrease in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and maintenance impacts [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The dry bulk shipping market is transitioning from a recession to a recovery phase. The current BDI is above the ten-year average but remains weaker than levels seen from 2000 to 2009. The supply side shows a low proportion of new ship orders, while the demand side is expected to grow due to global mining expansion [2][7][8]. Key Projects and Their Impact - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to significantly influence the global iron ore market, with production anticipated to exceed 100 million tons by 2026. If 70% of this is shipped to China, it will account for 6.8% of global iron ore shipping turnover, increasing shipping distances and demand [2][9]. Trade Growth - The growth in bauxite trade is expected to provide additional demand for Capesize vessels, with global bauxite shipping volumes projected to increase by 19% and 5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][10]. Economic Influences - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the reconstruction of Ukraine may positively impact dry bulk shipping demand, with historical data indicating that the BDI typically rebounds during rate cut cycles [2][11]. Future Outlook - Haitong Development aims to continue expanding its fleet and has set a target of 100 ships. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the dry bulk market, with projected net profits of 330 million, 600 million, and 750 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The target price is set at 10.7 yuan, reflecting a potential 26% increase from current market value [2][12]. Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, oversupply of shipping capacity, and significant fluctuations in oil prices, which could negatively impact the company's performance [2][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable overall. The improvement of consumer purchasing意愿 in the US depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term, and non - dollar assets should be monitored [8]. - Domestic macro: As the "anti - involution" policy expectations strengthen, although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - Asset view: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, with US consumer purchasing意愿 for real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuating at a low level. Price suppression persists, and improvement depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Monitor the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: "Anti - involution" policy expectations are strengthening. Despite the off - season, domestic demand has not declined significantly, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Asset View**: Focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets, and pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting signals. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The main line of "anti - involution" has switched. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility has reached an inflection point. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has fallen from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, and policy [9]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the fourth round of increases, and the futures price has followed coking coal's limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Policy - stimulated sentiment has reversed, and the futures price has limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Iron**: Bullish sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Speculative sentiment has declined, and intermediate - level inventory has increased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment has weakened, and both futures and spot prices have declined rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions, policy surprises, and demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the price has adjusted from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to ore production recovery and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment remains, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: "Anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production recovery in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: "Anti - involution" sentiment persists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and attention is on Russian oil risks. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [11]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and cost factors dominate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost progress such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, with attention to unexpected demand [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has weakened during the power - generation peak season. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows crude oil and weakens. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Commodity sentiment has faded, and the price has declined with coal. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to export policies and capacity elimination [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to coal prices and inventory accumulation [11]. - **PX**: Sentiment fluctuations are intensifying, and fundamental drivers are weakening. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance [11]. - **PTA**: Large - scale plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to unexpected plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and processing fees are compressed. Supply - demand drivers are weak. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to textile exports and downstream purchasing [11]. - **Bottle Chip**: During the production - cut season, cost pricing dominates over supply - demand drivers. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to future production starts [11]. - **Propylene**: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene to fluctuate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - environment [11]. - **PP**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Plastic**: Macro support has weakened, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is on policy details. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low inventory in Shandong supports the price, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to market sentiment, production starts, and demand [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has stabilized, and prices may strengthen with fluctuations. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: The excellent - grade rate is higher than expected, and US soybeans are trading around 1000 cents. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, macro - environment, and weather [11]. - **Pigs**: Inventory remains high, and both futures and spot prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and the rubber price has dropped significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price follows the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to significant crude - oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Pulp**: "Anti - involution" trading may resume. Pay attention to arbitrage during the price decline. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Cotton**: The price difference between months is converging. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand and production [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports are expected to increase, limiting the sugar - price rebound. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to abnormal weather [11]. - **Logs**: Fundamental changes are limited, and short - term prices are dominated by macro - expectations. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to shipment and delivery volumes [11].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月29日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2508 | 2,188.7 | 1,858.0 | 2,111.0 ...

【今日头条】 香港金管局发布稳定币发行人指引，可于9月30日或之前提交申请 香港金融管理局就2025年8月1日起实施的稳定币发行人监管制度发布《持牌稳定币发行人监管指引》、 《打击洗钱及恐怖分子资金筹集指引》，以及两项指引的咨询总结。两套指引于2025年8月1日刊宪。香 港金管局同时发布与发牌制度及申请程序相关的《稳定币发行人发牌制度摘要说明》，以及《原有稳定 币发行人过渡条文摘要说明》。 香港金管局表示，截至今日尚未发出任何牌照。鼓励有意申请牌照的机构于2025年8月31日或之前联系 金管局，让金管局可传达监管期望并适当提供反馈。发牌将是一个持续进行的过程，如个别机构认为已 准备充分并希望尽早获得考虑，应于2025年9月30日或之前向金管局提交申请。 对于首批牌照的潜在得主，机构纷纷给出预测。民生证券分析指出，《稳定币条例》生效后，蚂蚁集 团、京东等科技巨头凭借深厚的区块链技术积累和丰富的应用场景，有望首批获香港金管局批准，进而 搭建稳定币及 RWA 相关产业链。国金证券也在其稳定币报告中推测，参与香港稳定币沙盒测试的公司 以及像蚂蚁这样具备场景的企业，大概率会成为首批牌照的获得者。 【大势展望】 投资者等 ...

7月25日，卡塔尔天然气运输公司（Nakilat）在官网宣布，该公司已与韩国进出口银行（KEXIM）启动首笔融资方案，用于25艘由韩国船厂建造、Nakilat 全资拥有并运营的常规液化天然气（LNG）运输船。 对于最新合作，Nakilat首席执行官Abdullah Al-Sulaiti表示："通过此次合作，Nakilat已获得船队扩建所需的关键资金，这充分体现了各方对公司财务稳定 性和战略运营能力的高度信任。此次合作彰显出Nakilat通过国际合作提升全球市场地位、支持卡塔尔作为全球液化天然气行业领导者地位的坚定承诺。" 在相关新闻中，今年以来，Nakilat已有至少30艘气体船在韩国船厂开建。 此次融资方案紧随Nakilat与韩国进出口银行签署谅解备忘录之后，标志着该公司在战略增长和国际合作方面取得重要里程碑。 该合作是Nakilat长期战略的关键一步，旨在通过采购LNG运输船扩大船队规模，并为卡塔尔能源具有历史意义的LNG造船计划（即"百船计划"）及其LNG 扩建项目提供支持。 Nakilat表示，此次融资凸显出卡塔尔与韩国之间的紧密经济联系，同时使Nakilat能够通过韩国船厂的造船项目获得融资支持。 ...

本次加注实现了跨领域、跨行业共同推动大连东北亚绿色船燃加注中心建设。实施加注作业的中石 化中海船舶燃料供应有限公司是船舶清洁能源领域的积极探索者和践行者，发起成立了"可持续船用燃 料联合研发中心"，曾先后完成国内首单船用生物燃料油加注、首单船用灰色氨燃料加注及东北首单绿 色甲醇加注。接受加注作业的5500HP氨动力港口作业船由大连中远海运重工联合大连理工大学设计研 制，船上搭载的自主研发氨气双燃料发动机、氨燃料供给系统、氨燃料储罐及尾气处理装置等核心设备 代表了当前船舶动力技术的最高水平，全压式氨燃料罐能够为主机提供稳定可靠的氨燃料供应，最大氨 能替代比例达91%，大大减少了对传统化石燃料的依赖，可有效降低船舶运营过程中的碳排放。加注的 绿色船用氨燃料源自远景科技集团全球最大绿色氢氨项目，采用100%绿色电力制备氨燃料，是全球首 个获此认证的绿氨产品。 这种绿色氨燃料的大规模应用，将为航运业提供零碳排放的解决方案，有力推动全球航运业向低 碳、环保、可持续的方向发展。东三省和内蒙古东部地区拥有丰富的风光资源和生物质秸秆资源，是全 国主要的氢氨醇一体化项目生产基地。大连地处东北亚航运枢纽位置，背靠东三省和内蒙古绿 ...

Group 1: Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has released guidelines for stablecoin issuers, which will be implemented starting August 1, 2025 [1] - Institutions interested in applying for a license are encouraged to contact the HKMA by August 31, 2025, with applications due by September 30, 2025 [1] - Analysts predict that major tech companies like Ant Group and JD.com may be among the first to receive licenses due to their blockchain expertise and application scenarios [1][1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported an average daily turnover of HKD 240.2 billion in the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 118% year-on-year [5] - The increase in trading volume is attributed to the expansion of the ETF mutual market and the continuous launch of new ETF products [5] - In the first half of 2025, the average occupancy rate of hotels in Macau rose by 5.1 percentage points to 89.1% [6] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Lixin Development is seeking to sell a 50% stake in the China Construction Bank Tower in Hong Kong [8] - Ruihe Smart plans to jointly develop a virtual cryptocurrency trading platform with an independent third-party institution [9] - China Merchants Energy plans to order 10 bulk carriers, with a total contract value of approximately RMB 3.168 billion and RMB 2.112 billion for different shipbuilding contracts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company is engaging in a related party transaction to lease four 9,000-ton special liquid cargo ships for approximately 15 years, which aims to enhance its operational capabilities and service offerings in the shipping industry [2][5][17]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Hainan COSCO Shipping Asphalt Transportation Co., Ltd., will lease four 9,000-ton special liquid cargo ships from a subsidiary of COSCO Shipping Development Co., Ltd. [2][4]. - The lease terms include a daily rental fee of approximately 40,250 RMB per ship for both the ordinary and ice-class vessels, with an annual rental payment of about 14.69 million RMB per ship after delivery [2][4][17]. - This related party transaction requires approval from the company's first extraordinary general meeting of 2025, with related shareholders abstaining from voting [3][7][18]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The total amount of this related party transaction exceeds 30 million RMB and accounts for more than 5% of the company's most recent audited net assets [8]. - The transaction is expected to improve the company's service capabilities for diverse cargo transportation, enhance fleet competitiveness, and optimize operational structure, thereby increasing overall profitability and shareholder returns [17][19]. Group 3: Approval Process - The transaction has been approved by the company's eighth board of directors, with related directors abstaining from the vote, and it will be submitted for shareholder approval [6][18]. - The independent board members have also reviewed the transaction, confirming that it adheres to relevant regulations and does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [20][21].