Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the polysilicon market, highlighting the significant price increases in polysilicon futures and the implications for supply and demand dynamics in the industry [4][12][13]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures have demonstrated their price discovery function, serving as an important indicator of market expectations amid policy uncertainties [4]. - The price of polysilicon futures surged, with the main contract settling at 52,470 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, marking a more than 60% increase since early July [13]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to a focus on controlling low-priced products and consolidating production capacity within the polysilicon sector [7][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current supply-demand imbalance in polysilicon is becoming evident, with sellers raising prices to 50-52 yuan/kg, while downstream demand remains weak despite some marginal recovery [19]. - The increase in polysilicon prices is putting pressure on the profitability of downstream components, with costs rising approximately 0.02 yuan/W due to higher polysilicon prices [23]. - If the downstream prices do not rise in tandem with polysilicon prices, there is a risk of reduced demand as high costs may lead to production cuts [31]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policy aims to stabilize the market by preventing below-cost pricing and promoting the consolidation of excess capacity in the polysilicon industry [13][14]. - Successful implementation of the policy could lead to a new equilibrium where polysilicon prices reflect production costs, consolidation costs, and reasonable profit margins, estimated to be between 56,000 and 60,000 yuan/ton [37]. - The market is currently trading on expectations of policy success, with futures prices aligning with anticipated post-policy price levels, indicating that market expectations may have peaked [35][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Supply is increasing while demand is weakening, so the polysilicon market is expected to continue adjusting this week. Although prices are supported by costs and policies, the upside is limited by downstream acceptance, and prices are likely to show a volatile trend. Operational advice is to wait and see or arrange put options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 51,800 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 136,055 lots, down 3,684 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was -2,905 yuan, up 315 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 42,960 yuan/ton, down 1,025 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon was -5,985 yuan/ton, down 2,195 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.3 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars. The weekly photovoltaic industry composite price index (SPI) for polysilicon was 27.86, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that by 2025, the cumulative decommissioned photovoltaic modules in the country will reach about 9GW, and the decommissioned modules in that year will exceed 2.7GW, equivalent to 210,000 - 270,000 tons of waste. The Photovoltaic Recycling Industry Development Cooperation Center of the Photovoltaic Special Committee of the China Green Supply Chain Alliance predicted that by 2030, the cumulative decommissioned scale of photovoltaic modules in the country will reach 1 million tons, and by 2040, it will reach 12 million tons [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)". In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, some polysilicon enterprises that previously reduced or suspended production due to losses or equipment maintenance are more motivated to resume production as the market sentiment improves and the policy - end "anti - involution" measures are promoted. The resumption plans of individual enterprises in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are gradually being implemented [2]. 3.3 Key Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply Side**: Some polysilicon enterprises are resuming production, increasing supply [2]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price increases. Some small and medium - sized battery enterprises have weak procurement willingness due to cost pressure, which limits the further growth of demand in the silicon wafer segment. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has decreased slightly, weakening the demand support for polysilicon. Some mainstream - specification component prices have been lowered, indicating that the terminal market has low acceptance of high - price components. Component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing upstream polysilicon to control costs, resulting in a bottleneck in the growth of polysilicon demand [2].

格隆汇8月12日丨通威股份(600438.SH)在互动平台表示，公司可用于半导体产业的电子级多晶硅已批量 稳定供货，持续践行电子级晶硅"通威智造"。 ...

近期多省工业硅行业协会针对反内卷提出联合倡议，短期相关消息或成为引导工业硅盘面重要驱动。多 晶硅盘面再度出现升水后吸引仓单增量，市场交易有关产能收储等一系列消息，短期多晶硅上顶下底的 区间格局较为明朗。关注工业硅复产进度、协会倡议影响以及多晶硅政策推进情况。 东海期货：市场情绪降温，多晶硅短期预计高位震荡 8月12日盘中，多晶硅期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至53400.0元。截止发稿，多晶硅主力 合约报52980.0元，涨幅2.98%。 多晶硅期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期多晶硅上顶下底的区间格局较为明朗 东海期货 市场情绪降温，多晶硅短期预计高位震荡 五矿期货 多晶硅多空谨慎参与，注意风险控制 光大期货：短期多晶硅上顶下底的区间格局较为明朗 光伏是反内卷的重点行业，预期仍存，且下方现货价格提供支撑。下游硅片和电池片顺利跟涨，但组件 暂时未能调价。仓单有所增加，市场情绪降温，短期预计高位震荡。 五矿期货：多晶硅多空谨慎参与，注意风险控制 基本面而言，8月多晶硅预期增产，下游硅片排产有所增加，但幅度相对上游硅料有限，因此硅料在8月 大概率累库， ...

在经历了一周的短暂暂停后，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会恢复更新了周度硅料报价。 通威股份董事会秘书严轲提到，伴随硅料价格逐步下探触及行业部分产能成本线，部分相对落后产能将 逐步出清，部分新项目的投建与运行也存在较大不确定性，考虑到多晶硅环节具有高投入、高风险的化 工属性，长期来看将保持较为合理的价格与毛利率。同时，在短期供应相对过剩和N型产品占比提升的 背景下，不同产能产品品质的差异也将带来价格分化。 特变电工总经理黄汉杰表示，当前多晶硅新产能处于全面爬坡过程中，当下公司主要采取的措施是全面 落实安全生产，确保产出稳定、质量全面提升，更高比例的生产N型硅料，满足下游需求的结构性变 化，不断改进工艺，实施精细化成本管理，进一步降低成本。 数据显示，本周N型料成交均价为7.52万元/吨，较两周前市场价格下降19.23%。单晶致密料成交均价为 6.79万元/吨，较两周前市场价格下降15.23%。 硅业分会指出，本周成交量基本来源于一线大厂，大厂和小厂的成交价差逐步拉大。同时，N-P价差开 始收窄，N型成交量高于P型成交量，N型降价幅度略高于P型。 价格变动原因主要有两点，一是当前下游硅片企业减产超50%，对多晶硅需 ...

有望加速行业落后产能出清 中化新网讯 8月1日，工信部印发《2025年度多晶硅行业专项节能监察任务清单的通知》（以下简称 《通知》），对全国41家多晶硅企业开展节能监察，并要求9月30日前完成结果报送。 此次多晶硅专项监察工作是工信部首次单独对多晶硅行业发文，旨在进一步规范工业节能监察程序措 施，切实减轻企业负担。经记者梳理，此次涉及的41家企业分布在内蒙古、新疆、四川、云南、宁夏、 青海、湖北、江苏、山东、河南、陕西、甘肃等地，甚至涉及大全能源、通威股份（600438）、新特能 源、协鑫科技等多晶硅龙头企业的子公司。 据悉，全国性的工业节能监察是工信部每年开展的例行工作，监察内容包括执行单位产品能耗限额，用 能产品、设备能源效率等强制性国家标准情况，执行落后的耗能过高的用能产品、设备和生产工艺淘汰 制度情况，建立能源消费统计和能源利用状况分析制度情况，工业节能监察意见落实情况等。今年6 月，工信部已下发《2025年度国家工业节能监察任务清单》，涉及包括炼化、合成氨、水泥等重点行业 领域能效专项监察2590家企业，以及2024年度违规企业整改落实情况专项监察207家企业。 记者了解到，此次针对多晶硅行业的单独 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend. The closing price of PS2509 was 52,985 yuan/ton, with a gain of 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4] Outlook - The transaction price range of N-type refeed materials was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.21%. The futures and spot prices were rigidly supported by the policy. Short - term declines were mostly stage adjustments. The commodity rebound and the daily limit in the same sector provided emotional stimulation and policy imagination [4] - Recently, the开工 rate of rising - price varieties has rebounded significantly. The supply - demand contradiction has not intensified, but the increase in polysilicon prices has not been transmitted to components and terminal power stations. The fundamentals, although not the short - term dominant factor, also restricted the price increase [4] - On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which could meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. On the demand side, the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased to about 52GW. The overall supply - demand pattern remained loose. Therefore, short - term emotional fermentation might test the resistance level, and the overall trend would be mainly wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 3: Market News - On August 8, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,700 lots, a net increase of 1,080 lots from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5] - According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a 2% decrease compared with 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: It is running strongly [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The night - trading price of coking coal has risen. Attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market information disturbances [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,130, with a series of changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,225, also showing different changes over time. There were also detailed data on production, industry chain, and relevant prices such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news items, including Ontario's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP in Indonesia, plans to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, changes in the RKAB production plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and a steel mill's production reduction in Shandong [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were provided, as well as information on the basis, raw materials, and product prices in the lithium carbonate industry chain [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. CATL suspended mining operations due to an expired mining license and is applying for renewal. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 54.0%, with changes in the market shares of different brands [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the Si2511 and PS2511 contracts was given, along with data on the basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The first - phase project of the Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project is in the final construction stage, with a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan and planned production capacities of industrial silicon and high - purity ferrosilicon [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon price has been adjusted downward due to cooling sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market. However, the bullish sentiment has resurfaced recently, and it is expected that the silicon price will remain strong at a high level. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon futures market has continued to rise, and the price has repeatedly hit new highs since listing. Although the sentiment has faded recently, there are still fluctuations, and the price remains strong at a high level with large market volatility, so operation requires caution [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.33% to 9,000 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price remained unchanged, with N - type dense material at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material at 45 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract rose 4.32% to 52,985 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Supply: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and steadily increasing enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, increasing market supply pressure and potentially pressuring prices again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis of Polysilicon - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, the output is expected to increase slightly, with an expected output approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the high - volume installations in the first half of the year have significantly overdrawn demand, and the terminal market remains weak [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Silicon Bao Technology has launched self - developed low - density, high - flame - retardant organic silicon sealing materials for the power battery adhesive field, and double - component fast - curing organic silicon sealants for the photovoltaic adhesive field [1]. - Indian energy enterprise SAEL Industries' subsidiary will build a 5GW battery and 5GW component vertically integrated factory in Uttar Pradesh, with a total investment of about 6.8 billion yuan [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillating [8][9] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillating [10] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bullish [87] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding due to continuous resumption of production in factories in the northwest and southwest regions, while downstream polysilicon and silicone production has increased. The resumption of supply will impact the supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - For polysilicon, the national weekly production has increased, downstream silicon wafer production is on the rise, but market sentiment has cooled. The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the mine - end production halt has been confirmed, and if there is rectification and resumption after compliance, considering the large downstream inventory and supplementary supply from surrounding mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. Market sentiment may trigger downstream stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The current values, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US Dollar Index, exchange rate, Shanghai and London copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented. For example, the US Dollar Index is 98.267, with a daily increase of 0.18%, a weekly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 9.42%. Industrial silicon is priced at 8710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%, a weekly increase of 2.47%, and an annual decrease of 20.71% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 8.35 tons, a 6.16% increase from the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 270, an increase of 8 from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan has all increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream polysilicon and silicone weekly production has increased. Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week, and silicone DMC weekly production is 5.12 tons, a 7.11% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.16 tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week; the industry inventory is 43.99 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.17 tons, a 0.52% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9100 yuan, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 120 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. In major production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 567, 86, and 187 yuan respectively, with changes of - 25, + 52, and + 37 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the expansion of supply and hedging pressure [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Production**: The national weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 1.09, 0.45, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with a 1.02% increase in Inner Mongolia and no change in the other three regions [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.58GW, a 6.24% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.78GW, a 1.93% decrease from the previous week [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.34 tons, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 10860 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41323 yuan, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 3878 yuan, an increase of 461 yuan from the previous week [10]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national high - yield is 1.96 tons, a 13.25% increase from the previous week. Lithium extraction from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes has all increased, with weekly productions of 11182, 4410, and 2442 tons respectively, and increases of 5.25%, 35.07%, and 20.18% from the previous week [87]. - **Import**: In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.7 tons, a 16.31% decrease from the previous month and a 9.63% decrease from the previous year. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 42.76 tons, a 17.25% decrease from the previous month and an 18.15% decrease from the previous year [87]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of iron - phosphate - based materials decreased by 10.87% to 6.17 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.99% to 9.46 tons. The weekly production of ternary - based materials increased by 8.66% to 1.75 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.36% to 1.66 tons. In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 226.77 million vehicles, a 0.14% decrease from the previous month, and the sales volume was 132.92 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase from the previous month [87]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.24 tons, a 0.49% increase from the previous week. The lithium - salt factory inventory decreased by 1.85% to 5.10 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1.84% to 9.14 tons. The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 239.57% to 1.88 tons [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased lepidolite is 75753 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 7557 yuan/ton, a 422 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased spodumene is 68214 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is 1863 yuan/ton, a 212 - yuan decrease from the previous week [87]. - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the mine - end production halt and potential downstream stocking [87].