Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is facing significant cyclical challenges due to oversupply, leading to declining prices and increasing inventory levels, prompting companies to reduce production rates to manage costs and inventory [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The polysilicon market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping; for instance, the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon fell to 39,200 yuan/ton, down 5% from 41,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2025 [4][5]. - As of early May, polysilicon factory inventory reached approximately 257,000 tons, a high level compared to previous years [4]. - The main futures contract for polysilicon hit a historical low of 34,375 yuan/ton on May 8, indicating a downward trend in market prices [4]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Companies are actively seeking to reduce inventory by lowering production rates, with many polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang operating at below 50% capacity [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, companies maintain a positive outlook, believing that current difficulties are temporary and that the industry will eventually recover [6][10]. - Some companies are implementing measures such as rotating staff and maintaining basic salaries to manage costs while reducing production [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The polysilicon supply is projected to exceed demand by approximately 26,550 tons in 2025, with supply expected to be around 1,598,900 tons and demand at 1,333,400 tons [9]. - Xinjiang's electricity cost advantage, ranging from 0.22 to 0.38 yuan/kWh, is seen as a protective factor for local polysilicon companies against cost pressures [9]. - Companies believe that those who endure the current market conditions will benefit significantly when the market recovers [10]. Group 4: Role of Futures Market - The introduction of polysilicon futures has enhanced communication and collaboration between producers and traders, revitalizing the market [12][13]. - Many companies are now more open to working with traders, viewing them as a means to alleviate cash flow concerns and streamline sales processes [13]. - There is a growing interest among companies to establish themselves as delivery brands in the futures market, which could enhance their market opportunities and economic benefits [13][14].

2025年05月11日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 11 日 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 观点与策略 | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 2 | | 工业硅：西南复产，基本面弱势 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单故事 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷，偏弱震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：基本面逻辑或将镍价震荡区间收敛，市场消息扰动盘面情绪。首先，印尼高品位镍矿偏 紧，溢价边际上行 1-2 美金至 26-27 美金/湿吨，同比增加 15-16 美金。同时考虑到补库需求的影响，精 炼镍过剩预期下的短期累库不及预期，库存边际小幅去化，再叠加矿端推升一体化火法成本，镍价下方或 仍有托底。其次，5 月 9 日市场有消 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色，关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，北方和云南产能出现减产，但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅：工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线，价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上，前期 空单可部分止盈，不建议左侧做多，建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后， 再考虑右侧抄底。此外，关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅：价格下跌后，关注供给端变化，以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧，盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...

2025年05月09日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：库存小幅去化，绝对值偏高制约反弹 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势状态，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单注销，市场情绪进一步发酵 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）据 3 月 18 日钢联资讯，经过 1-2 月的减产，目前印尼 GNI 镍铁项目产线已逐步恢复，产能利用率 在 3 月内从三成增至五成，预计该工厂 3 月内产量增加约 0.2 万金属吨/月。4 月该工厂将继续提高产能 利用率，计划 4 月底实现正常生产状态。 2）印尼政府近期对非税国家收入提出相关调整建议，镍矿、镍铁、镍生铁和镍锍资源税率分别由 10%、 2%、5%和 2%提高至浮动区间 14%-19%、5%-7%、 ...

研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 封帆 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|新能源与有色金属专题 2025-05-9 多晶硅交割概况分析及近期行情展望 策略摘要 近期多晶硅期货盘面波动较大，主要受基本面偏弱与交割博弈共同影响，本文就多晶硅 生产消费格局、产品种类特点、交割要求及厂家交割意愿等进行分析，主要结论如下： 核心观点 ■ 策略 单边：2506 合约谨慎偏多，若盘面反弹至 4 万元/吨以上时，生产企业可择机逢高卖出 套保。 跨期：短期 06 07 合约正套，若仓单量开始快速增加，可转为反套 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：卖出近月深度虚值看跌期权，买入看涨期权 风险 新增交割品牌，厂家减产不及预期，政策等扰动。 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market have changed little, as reflected in the large difference in the increase between near - and far - month contracts. Since April, the "rush installation" of photovoltaic terminals has gradually ended, and strong - stimulus policies have created a negative feedback. With the "tariff" dispute, the expectation of export improvement is weak. Polysilicon (280,000 tons), silicon wafers, and battery cells have all accumulated inventory for 4 consecutive weeks. Supply - demand balance requires greater production cuts, and there may be an expectation of increased production during the wet season. The large rebound of the near - month 06 contract is mainly due to the leading enterprises' announcement not to use the futures delivery warehouse for destocking and the exchange having only 60 lots of warehouse receipts, which causes market panic about delivery. The benchmark delivery product has a higher standard than the spot dense material, and the basis provides bottom support. In the short term, the significant increase in the volatility of the 06 contract attracts long - position funds to enter the market, but the weak fundamentals will limit the price rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly, and it is not advisable to continue chasing high during the session for the near - month contract. The resistance above 38,000 yuan (the current price range of re - feedstock) increases incrementally, and short - term operations need to be cautious [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The near - month polysilicon 06 contract has deeply declined, over - exhausting the bearish drivers. The shortage of the delivery benchmark product has reversed market sentiment, and the price once rose by 3.34% during the session. The closing price of PS2506 was 36,950 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.43%, a trading volume of 455,000 lots, an open interest of 6,752 lots, and a net increase of 4,212 lots [4] - **Future Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited changes. Since April, the "rush installation" of photovoltaic terminals has ended, policies have a negative feedback, and export improvement expectations are weak. Polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have accumulated inventory for 4 consecutive weeks. Supply - demand balance needs larger production cuts and there may be increased production in the wet season. The 06 contract rebounded due to delivery - related factors. The basis supports the price, but weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly, and short - term operations should be cautious [4] 3.2 Market News - As of May 8, 2025, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 40 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Trina Solar released their Q1 2025 performance reports and held performance briefings. During the reporting period, the four companies had losses of 1.436 billion yuan, 1.39 billion yuan, 1.638 billion yuan, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, with a total loss of 5.784 billion yuan. Longi Green Energy reduced its losses year - on - year, while the other three companies' losses decreased by 218.2%, 239.35%, and 355.88% respectively year - on - year [5]

Group 1 - The "Qinghui Cup" Youth Forum organized by Beijing Antai Technology Co., Ltd. emphasizes the importance of academic research and innovative thinking in the context of the non-ferrous metals industry facing green transformation and global supply chain restructuring [1] - The report presented by Antai's youth analyst highlights that nickel resources are crucial for national economic development, with China being the largest nickel consumer but heavily reliant on imports, necessitating the expansion of domestic nickel resource acquisition channels [1] - Recommendations include increasing nickel resource reserves, optimizing overseas resource layouts, enhancing diplomatic and security measures, and improving technological innovation and resource utilization efficiency [1] Group 2 - The report on polysilicon futures indicates that the futures will be launched on December 26, 2024, with delivery starting on April 1, 2025, and estimates the deliverable standard product quantity for 2025 to be between 297,510 tons and 545,880 tons [2] - Considering the conservative attitude of enterprises towards futures trading, the estimated deliverable quantity may decrease to 68,207 tons, representing approximately 4.10% of the national total production [2] Group 3 - The analysis of the Indonesian market for investment in alumina and bauxite highlights the rapid development of the aluminum industry in Indonesia, with rich bauxite reserves and competitive alumina costs [3] - The Indonesian government's improved foreign investment incentives and the presence of Chinese enterprises in the region indicate potential investment opportunities, although challenges such as competition for quality mineral sources and infrastructure deficiencies exist [3] - A comprehensive industrial chain layout, including alumina plants and smelting projects, is necessary for successful investment in Indonesia, rather than merely exporting raw materials [3]

然橡胶产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月8日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月7日 | 5月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -110 | -115 | 5 | 4.35% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14400 | 14450 | -50 | -0.35% | | | 非标价差 | -410 | -365 | -45 | -12.33% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | રૂડે રેટ | 53.05 | 0.50 | 0.94% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 59.50 | 59.25 | 0.25 | 0.42% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13000 | 13000 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are in a downward trend. The supply in the northwest region remains relatively high, and the demand is weak. The industry is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures price hit a new low, while the spot price remained stable. There is a game between production cuts by polysilicon enterprises to support prices and weak demand. The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit a new low. The main contract 2506 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8290 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 182,782 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on May 8 was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 244 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9900 - 10300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption of organic silicon DMC was stable, with a quotation of 11300 - 11800 yuan/ton. The overall operating capacity of domestic monomers decreased due to the resumption of some plants in East and North China and the maintenance of an 800,000 - ton plant in the northwest [1]. Strategy - The industry's total inventory pressure is relatively high, and the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly. For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 36,670 yuan/ton and closing at 35,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 63,290 lots, and the trading volume was 135,166 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; the price of dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 20.62GW (with a month - on - month change of 5.58%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.29GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - In May, the polysilicon output decreased by about 0.2 million tons month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output decreased by about 4GW month - on - month. Some enterprises have new production capacity investment expectations in May, and the registration of warehouse receipts has started [6]. Strategy - The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games. Investors can choose to build long positions opportunistically. If the rebound is significant, upstream enterprises can sell hedging [7].

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：中美谈判略有进展 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存持续下降，限制价格回落 | 5 | | 铝：价格承压 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续磨底 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 10 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 11 | | 锡：假期间价格走弱 | 13 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势 | 15 | | 多晶硅：盘面再创上市新低 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：成本重心延续下移，累库格局制约反弹 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 20 | | 硅铁：宏观因素影响，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宏观因素影响，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 焦煤：电煤疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震 ...