（一）业绩预告期间 （二）业绩预告情况 证券代码：601212 证券简称：白银有色 公告编号：2025—临 031 号 白银有色集团股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ? 本期业绩预告适用于净利润为负值情形。 ? 白银有色集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度实 现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-18,000 万元到-27,000 万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 归属于母公司所有者的净利润 1,233.73 万元；归属于母公司所有者的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润 1,393.21 万元；每股收益 0.002 元。 三、本期业绩变化的主要原因 多措并举降本增效、开源节流，毛利率同比上升，经营质效不断提升。但由于公 司下属子公司上海红鹭国际贸易有限公司（简称"上海红鹭"）与南储仓储管理 集团有限公司及其上海分公司的仓储合同纠纷案，2025 年上半年由上海市高级 人民法院下发的关于本案的民事终审裁定中认为本案涉及刑事案件，据此裁定驳 回上海红鹭的诉讼请求，并将本案移送公 ...

关于董事、副总经理辞职及聘任总经理的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 宝鸡钛业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 14 日召开 第八届董事会第十六次临时会议，审议通过了《关于聘任公司总经理的议案 》 《关于提名公司董事候选人的议案》，现将有关事宜公告如下： 一、公司董事、副总经理辞职情况 公司董事会于近日收到了董事陈战乾先生的书面辞职报告。陈战乾先生因工 作变动原因向董事会申请辞去公司第八届董事会董事及董事会专门委员会等职务。 根据《公司法》、《公司章程》等有关规定，陈战乾先生的辞职未导致董事会成 员低于法定最低人数，不会影响公司董事会的正常运作，其辞职报告自送达公司 董事会之日起生效。 陈战乾先生在担任公司董事期间，认真履行职责,勤勉尽责,为公司规范运作 和稳健发展发挥了积极作用。公司董事会对陈战乾先生任职期间作出的贡献表示 衷心的感谢。 公司董事会于近日收到公司副总经理陶海林先生的书面辞职报告。陶海林先 生因工作变动原因申请辞去公司副总经理职务，根据《公司法》、《公司章程》 等有关 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper market is affected by the US's 50% tariff on copper imports. The US copper inventory is high, and the rigid import demand in the second half of the year is low. The trade structure of South American countries may be pressured, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1] - The aluminum supply increases slightly, and the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to the demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] - The zinc price fluctuates widely. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in overseas markets. The strategy is to short zinc, hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to positive spreads between months [2] - The nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are average. Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [7] - The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with supply cuts, mainly rigid demand, and expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11] - The lead price回调s slightly. The supply and demand in July are expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week [13] - The tin price fluctuates widely. The supply may decline, the demand is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15] - The industrial silicon production is expected to decline, the market changes from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [19] - The lithium carbonate futures price rebounds. The short - term supply and demand are strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with the downward inflection point depending on inventory accumulation [21] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 50, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1578 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 625 tons [1] - **Market Impact**: Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports led to a 16% increase in COMEX copper. The US has filled its annual rigid import gap, and the tariff impact on CL spread may not be fully priced. The trade structure of South American countries may change, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price fluctuated slightly, the social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 4550 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and the short - term fundamentals are acceptable [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the zinc price fluctuated, the social inventory increased by 0.05 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 350 tons [2] - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase, the domestic demand is seasonally weak, the overseas demand is weak but there is a short - squeeze risk, and the recommended strategies are shorting, long - short between domestic and overseas, and positive spreads between months [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained stable, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1550 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 1440 tons [7] - **Market Situation**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the LME premium is slightly stronger, and the short - term fundamentals are average [7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 50 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Situation**: The supply has been cut since late May, the demand is mainly rigid, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the lead price decreased slightly, the social inventory increased by 1846 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 3000 tons [12][23] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand in July are expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the spot import and export earnings fluctuated, the LME inventory decreased by 45 tons, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 20 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply may decline, the demand is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan and 553 in East China and Tianjin changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 315 [19] - **Market Situation**: The production is expected to decline, the market changes from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the SMM electric and industrial carbon prices increased slightly, the basis of the main and near - month contracts changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1588 [21] - **Market Situation**: The futures price rebounds, the short - term supply and demand are strong, the social inventory pressure accumulates, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate [21]

Group 1 - The company, Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, has issued a convertible bond with a total amount of 380 million yuan, consisting of 38 million bonds with a face value of 100 yuan each [1][5] - The bond has an annual interest rate of 1.50%, with interest payments made annually. For every 10 bonds held, the interest payment is 15.00 yuan (including tax) [1][5] - The interest payment period for this bond is from July 20, 2024, to July 18, 2025, marking the fifth year of interest payments [5][6] Group 2 - The interest calculation for the bond is based on the formula I = B × i, where I is the annual interest amount, B is the total face value of the bonds held, and i is the annual interest rate [2] - The bondholders will receive their interest payments through a designated bank account managed by China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation [6] - Individual bondholders are subject to a 20% withholding tax on interest income, while qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII and RQFII) are exempt from corporate income tax and value-added tax on the interest [5][7][8] Group 3 - The company maintains a credit rating of AA+ with a stable outlook for both the company and the convertible bond, as per the tracking rating report issued by Zhongcheng Credit [5] - The bond's interest payment date is set for July 18, 2025, with the record date for bondholders being the trading day before the payment date [6] - The company has provided additional resources for investors to understand more about the convertible bond through its official announcements and reports [8]

Overview - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry, including definitions, classifications, regulatory frameworks, and market dynamics [2][3][4]. Global Electrolytic Aluminum Industry - The global electrolytic aluminum industry is characterized by its supply-demand dynamics, with significant production and consumption trends observed from 2020 to 2025 [4][20]. - Key regions such as Canada and Europe are highlighted for their specific market conditions and future growth prospects [4][20]. - The competitive landscape includes mergers and acquisitions among major global players, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [4][20]. Chinese Electrolytic Aluminum Industry - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry has seen advancements in technology, particularly with the introduction of inert anode electrolysis technology, which reduces carbon emissions compared to traditional methods [5][6]. - The industry is also marked by significant research and development efforts, with a notable increase in patent applications and innovations [5][6]. - Trade statistics reveal a complex landscape of imports and exports, with fluctuations in trade volumes and prices from 2019 to 2025 [5][6][21]. Market Demand and Supply - The demand for electrolytic aluminum in China is driven by various sectors, including construction, transportation, and automotive industries, with detailed analyses of each sector's growth potential [6][11]. - Supply-side analysis indicates the current production capacity and utilization rates, with projections for future capacity expansions [6][21]. - The market is experiencing a balance between supply and demand, with ongoing trends influencing pricing and market conditions [6][21]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive structure of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry is analyzed, focusing on market entry strategies, regional distribution of competitors, and strategic positioning [7][21]. - The industry exhibits varying degrees of concentration, with major players holding significant market shares [7][21]. - The report also discusses the implications of external factors such as economic conditions and regulatory policies on market competition [7][21]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts the development potential of the electrolytic aluminum industry in China, emphasizing technological innovations and market trends that will shape the future landscape [19][20]. - Predictions include expected production volumes and market size growth from 2025 onwards, highlighting the industry's resilience and adaptability [19][20].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 680 million and 720 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 237 million to 277 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year increase of 53.35% to 62.37% [1][2] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, between 620 million and 660 million yuan, an increase of 195 million to 235 million yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.04% to 55.47% [2] - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The previous year's total profit was 568 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 443 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 425 million yuan [2] - The earnings per share for the previous year was 0.11 yuan [2] - The main reasons for the performance increase include cost reduction and sales price increase in the electrolytic aluminum business, as well as stable production and sales in the deep processing of aluminum, leading to increased processing fees and profits [2]

Market Activity - On July 11, the A-share market showed active trends with 61 stocks hitting the daily limit up, and a total of 17 stocks achieved consecutive limit ups, resulting in a success rate of 69% for limit orders [1] - The market focused on several strong stocks, with Sifang New Materials achieving a remarkable five consecutive limit ups, and Guotou Zhonglu also performing well with a T-shaped limit up, reaching five consecutive limit ups [1] - Stocks like Jingyi Co. and Yamaton achieved their fifth limit up within eight trading days through reverse limit up strategies [1] Stock Performance - Among the stocks with consecutive limit ups, Forest Packaging demonstrated a strong performance with seven consecutive limit ups, while companies like Shuangwei New Materials, Nanhua Futures, and Hemei Group achieved three consecutive limit ups [1] - ST Yazhen maintained an impressive performance with 12 limit ups over 15 days, while Yamaton and Jingyi Co. kept a pace of five limit ups over eight days [2] Market Sentiment and Capital Inflow - The market showed positive sentiment with active participation from investors, as evidenced by over 15 billion yuan in limit order funds supporting Shuangwei New Materials, and several other stocks like Sifang New Materials and Jin'an Guoji also receiving billions in limit order funds [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan, marking the highest level in nearly four months, indicating a significant increase in overall market activity and investor engagement [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector was notably active, with stocks like Hunan Silver and China Nonferrous Metals achieving limit ups [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector also showed strength, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Jingyuntong achieving two consecutive limit ups, while Baogang Group and China Rare Earth also hit limit ups [1] - The securities IT sector attracted capital interest, with stocks like Jinzhen Co. and Guo'ao Technology hitting limit ups [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap substitution, but there is strong support below, and a significant drop requires a macro black swan event with a low probability currently [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory situation, pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] - The idea of short - allocating zinc remains unchanged, and short positions can be established on rebounds. The internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [4] - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [9] - Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week, and if affected by the macro environment and the price remains above 17,200, it may trigger a risk of a price - support cycle [11] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [13] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production and there is no obvious recovery in short - term production [17] - Carbonate lithium is expected to continue to be in a state of oversupply next week, with prices under upward pressure, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend. The ADP and non - farm data were inconsistent, and the overall interest - rate cut expectation was unstable. The "Great Beauty" bill was implemented, and short - term broad fiscal policy may have a certain stimulating effect [1] - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start - up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline in the off - season from July to August, and copper consumption is restricted. The scrap - refined price difference has widened, and the scrap - refined substitution effect will weaken. A moderate inventory accumulation is expected from July to August [1] Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1] - In the inventory aspect, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC has increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with June, and the imported TC has increased slightly. Some smelters are under maintenance, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons [4] - Domestically, demand has weakened seasonally, and the spot premium has basically leveled off. Overseas, European demand is weak, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4] - Domestically, social inventory has increased, and overseas LME inventory has decreased after May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4] Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production has remained at a high level, and nickel bean imports have increased in May. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [6] - Overseas nickel plate inventory has remained stable, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been repealed, concerns about ore - end disturbances have eased [6] Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron have remained stable [9] - Inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been removed. Fundamentals are generally weak, and spot pressure has increased after demand has weakened [9] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of waste batteries, and the low - profit situation has improved but the low - start - up rate remains [11] - On the demand side, battery inventory is high, the battery start - up rate has rebounded this week, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The scrap - refined price difference is - 50, and the willingness to sell recycled lead has increased but the receiving is poor [11] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires further negotiation. The processing fee at the ore end is low, and smelting profits are inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi have cut production, and those in Yunnan are struggling to maintain [13] - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. Domestic inventory has increased, and overseas consumption has continued to rush to install, but the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [13] Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to cut production, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the large - scale production cut by the leading enterprise, the monthly output in July and subsequent months is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [17] - The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating the downstream's speculative and inventory - replenishment sentiment. The market expectation has shifted from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. If production does not recover significantly in the short term, the industrial silicon futures price is expected to oscillate [17] Carbonate Lithium - This week, carbonate lithium prices rose due to the "anti - involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 - contract price, and the difference in prices between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream enterprises settle at a later point, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [18] - High prices have stimulated the resumption of production of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes are continuing to increase production. Some factories have maintenance plans, and external - procurement projects have sufficient hedging profits and are in production [18] - Downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see state, only maintaining safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver to the warehouse has improved, and the number of registered warehouse receipts has increased [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal outlooks are as follows: - Copper: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [6] - Alumina: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [7] - Aluminum: Expected to be "震荡偏强" (sideways with a slight upward bias) in the short - term and cautious about long - term consumption [10] - Aluminum alloy: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern in the short - term and have upward potential in the medium - term [11] - Zinc: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a slight downward bias) [15] - Lead: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [16] - Nickel: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a slight downward bias) in the medium - to - long - term, and strengthen in the short - term [21] - Stainless steel: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern in the short - term [24] - Tin: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows a game between US reciprocal tariff measures and domestic policy stimulus expectations, leading to repeated macro - expectations and continued volatility in the non - ferrous metals market. - From a supply - demand perspective, the supply - demand of base metals is seasonally loosening, with domestic inventory destocking slowing down and some varieties starting to accumulate inventory slightly. - In the short - to - medium - term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and low - buying short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin can be cautiously considered. - In the long - term, the demand prospects of base metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to sell short at high prices for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: US tariffs on copper may be implemented, pressuring the price of Shanghai copper. - **Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the US Commerce Secretary said the new tariff might be implemented at the end of July or on August 1st. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. As of July 10th, copper inventory increased. - **Logic**: Macro factors put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper ore processing fees are falling, raw material supply is tight, and overseas smelters are reducing production. Demand is weakening in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Arbitrage space has opened, but sentiment is stronger, and alumina prices continue to rise. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in various regions have increased. Guinea has introduced reform measures for the mining industry, including creating the Guinea Bauxite Index and exercising sales and transportation rights. Alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged on July 8th, and Xinjiang's alumina shipments will be affected in the short term. - **Logic**: In the short - to - medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and production capacity and inventory are increasing, but warehouse receipts are still low. The anti - cut - throat competition sentiment drives prices up. In the long - term, Guinea's policies may affect ore prices [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are oscillating with a slight upward bias. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and inventory in the main consumption areas decreased. Aluminum rod inventory increased. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased. The "Big and Beautiful" bill was approved, and Trump announced tariffs on imports from 14 countries. - **Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, and domestic anti - cut - throat competition expectations drive up sentiment. Aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is uncertain, and downstream demand may be under pressure in the second half of the year [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and aluminum alloy prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum widened. Thailand plans to levy a carbon tax. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, supporting costs. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. In the medium - term, demand may recover seasonally [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of ferrous metal prices boosts galvanizing demand, and zinc prices are strong in the short - term. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of July 10th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production. - **Logic**: Macro factors boost galvanizing demand. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. However, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, supply may exceed demand, and prices may fall [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained stable. Lead ingot inventory increased, and the Shanghai lead futures warehouse receipts increased slightly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the premium is stable. On the supply side, the cost of recycled lead is stable, and production is increasing slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The real - estate market has become a hot topic again, and nickel prices are strengthening in the short - term. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. There have been many investment and production - start events in the nickel industry in Indonesia, Canada, and Brazil. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The supply of raw materials may increase, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected that nickel prices will be weak in the medium - to - long - term and strengthen in the short - term [20]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Sentiment supports the upward movement of the stainless - steel futures market. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Stainless - steel production decreased in June, and social inventory decreased last week. - **Logic**: Cost support is weakening, and demand may weaken after the peak season. It is necessary to pay attention to the scale of production cuts by steel mills and inventory changes. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will fluctuate in the short - term [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, LME and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and Shanghai tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots remained unchanged. - **Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and Indonesia's refined tin exports are restricted, supporting prices. However, the impact may be limited, and terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate [25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of the monitored varieties (copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin), but no specific monitoring content is provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is expected to experience high - level oscillations in the short term and is a strategic long - term allocation due to multiple uncertainties and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [1][3]. - Silver will have strong oscillations, with support around 8700, influenced by the price sentiment of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short term, but the long - term outlook remains positive. After a full correction, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position [1][6]. - Zinc will oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, it has an increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to increased supply and insufficient demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound as downstream consumption enters the off - season and inventory accumulates [1][11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure to fall due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][13]. - Industrial silicon will rebound, and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations in the short term but is in a state of over - supply in the long term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound, and it is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the 65,000 pressure level [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold decreased by 1.21% to 766.82, COMEX gold increased by 0.35% to 3323. SHFE silver decreased by 0.60% to 8899, COMEX silver decreased by 0.87% to 37. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.61% to 86.17 [2]. - **Logic**: The Fed's attitude is unclear, Trump's second - wave high - tariff policy is in place, and New Zealand did not cut interest rates as expected. Tariff uncertainties and the long - term trend of global order reshaping and double - easing support the long - bull logic of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: Gold can be considered for long - term investment when the opportunity arises as it has strong support around 760. Silver will have range oscillations with strong support around 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The trading volume increased by 165%, and the position decreased by 6%. Global copper visible inventory is at a historically low level [5]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, but the production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. The high copper price suppresses demand, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [5]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is intense long - short game. After a full correction, try long positions with a light position. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The range of SHFE copper is [77800, 79800], and that of LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22220 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is 56.48%, lower than the same period in previous years [8]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the TC continues to rebound. The demand for galvanized steel is affected by the weak steel demand and overseas anti - dumping [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. In the long run, short on rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [21800, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2583 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.23%, and that of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [10]. - **Logic**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the downstream consumption is weak. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME nickel was 14990 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and that of SHFE nickel main contract was 120370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The inventory of pure nickel has accumulated [12]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand imbalance of nickel persists, and the consumption of stainless steel is in the off - season, although the inventory has decreased slightly due to production cuts [13]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the production cut trend of stainless steel. The range of nickel main contract is [118000, 122000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate decreased its position by over 10,000 lots, opening low and closing high. The total inventory continues to reach new highs [14]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved. The demand shows an off - season non - off - season phenomenon, but the supply increase is in line with expectations [14]. - **Strategy**: It will have high - level oscillations in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 pressure level [15].