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日内维持震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 10:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a volatile trend with a slight increase in positions. There is significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and the weakening US dollar index is favorable for copper prices. There is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas inventories accumulating marginally and domestic inventories decreasing marginally. Technically, focus on the multi - empty game at the 87,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and today they stabilized in a volatile manner. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, and non - ferrous metals have generally stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum's rebound is relatively small, positions are continuously decreasing, and market attention is waning. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 21,500 yuan mark [8]. - **沪镍**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then maintained a high - level volatile trend, and today they were strongly volatile, once reaching the 118,000 yuan mark. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, leading to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Last week, nickel prices decreased significantly with increasing positions, and the spot premium continued to strengthen. In the short term, the market has warmed up, and short - covering has pushed up nickel prices. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 120,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, Codelco's benchmark price for the 2026 CIF long - term contract of electrolytic copper in China is set at $350 per ton, a rise of $261 per ton compared to $89 per ton in 2025 [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 26, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 117,300 and 122,400 yuan per ton, with an average price of 119,850 yuan per ton, a rise of 1,300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 4,400 and 4,900 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 4,650 yuan per ton, a rise of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between 0 and 500 yuan per ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].
驰宏锌锗(600497.SH):直接控股股东将由云南冶金变更为中国铜业
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-11-26 08:33
本次无偿划转完成后,本公司的直接控股股东将由云南冶金变更为中国铜业,实际控制人未发生变化, 仍为国务院国资委。 格隆汇11月26日丨驰宏锌锗(600497.SH)公布,为优化国有资本布局,提升资源配置和运营效率,2025 年11月26日,中国铜业有限公司与云南冶金集团股份有限公司签署了《中国铜业有限公司与云南冶金集 团股份有限公司关于云南驰宏锌锗股份有限公司股份无偿划转协议》,云南冶金将其直接持有的公司 19.44亿股股份(占本公司总股本的38.57%)全部无偿划转给中国铜业。 ...
郴州钻石钨制品有限公司成立
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-26 07:05
Group 1 - A new company, Chenzhou Diamond Tungsten Products Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 300 million yuan [2] - The company's business scope includes the smelting of common non-ferrous metals and the processing of non-ferrous metal rolling [2] - The company is wholly owned by China Tungsten High-Tech Materials Co., Ltd. [2]
有色商品日报-20251126
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 06:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices both at home and abroad rose and then fell. Economic data strengthened the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global visible inventories are in a state of accumulation and close to recent high levels, which may restrict future copper prices. Without unexpected events, copper prices will show a high - level oscillation, with low volatility. Attention should be paid to the performance of overseas financial markets and internal and external inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased and short - term support for aluminum prices exists, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious. Considering the cost support, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for favorable factors, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US economic data shows mild inflation and a possible worsening employment situation, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and BC copper decreased. The downstream acceptance of high - priced copper has improved, and overall demand is slowly recovering. However, high inventories may restrict copper prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures prices all declined. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot of aluminum ingots was at par or at a discount. The processing fees of some aluminum products were stable or decreased. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The benchmark price of nickel ore slightly declined, and the raw material support for the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain weakened. The inventory of stainless steel increased. Although the raw material end of the new energy industry chain is tight, the ternary precursor in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is large, and one can consider bottom - fishing based on cost support [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 375 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2851 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 5905 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts of SHFE lead decreased by 902 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3869 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.6 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 843 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 778 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 12 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons, and the registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 822 tons, while those of LME increased by 600 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.7%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 29 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 209 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are given [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and is a senior precious metals researcher. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won many awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: He has a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: She has a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [47].
山东恒邦冶炼股份有限公司 关于公司收到山东监管局行政监管措施决定书的公告
Group 1 - The company received an administrative regulatory measure decision from the Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau due to the failure to complete the re-election of independent directors within the stipulated time frame, resulting in a violation of regulations [1][2] - The company has acknowledged the issues raised in the decision and is committed to improving compliance with relevant laws and regulations, including the Securities Law and the Management Measures for Independent Directors of Listed Companies [4][5] - The company held a board meeting on November 14, 2025, and approved the nomination of two candidates for independent directors, which were subsequently elected by the shareholders [3] Group 2 - The company announced the early redemption of its convertible bonds, "Hengbang Convertible Bonds," with the last conversion date set for November 27, 2025 [8][9] - The redemption price for the bonds is set at 100.28 yuan per bond, including accrued interest, with a current annual interest rate of 0.6% [9][18] - The company has triggered the conditional redemption clause due to the stock price meeting the required thresholds over a specified period, leading to the decision to redeem all unconverted bonds [15][16] Group 3 - The company will stop trading the "Hengbang Convertible Bonds" on November 25, 2025, and the redemption date is scheduled for November 28, 2025 [20][21] - The company will ensure that all bondholders are informed of the redemption process and timelines through regular announcements [20][21] - After the redemption is completed, the "Hengbang Convertible Bonds" will be delisted from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [21]
新能源及有色金属日报:现货升贴水持续偏强运行-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]
有色金属日报-20251126
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:18
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Five Minerals Futures Morning Report | Non-ferrous Metals [1][31][78] - Date: November 26, 2025 Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen due to dovish Fed statements, reduced geopolitical risks, tight raw material supply, and strong downstream demand [5] - Aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after adjustment as global visible inventory is low and supply disruptions are expected, despite the approaching off - season [8] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to increased supply, stable domestic demand, and rising inventory [10] - Zinc prices are predicted to be weak in the short term as the zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and recent financial assets are performing weakly [12] - Tin prices are expected to be in a tight - balance state in the short term and may fluctuate, with support from emerging demand and potential supply increases [14] - Nickel prices are likely to be under pressure in the short term due to supply increases and weak demand [18] - Lithium carbonate prices have significant market differences, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on first - quarter cell production and equity market sentiment [21] - Alumina prices are suggested to be observed in the short term as the industry has over - capacity and potential supply - side changes [24] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate as the market has a mixed situation of price increases and weak demand [27] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to be volatile in the short term with strong cost support and average demand [30] Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: Offshore RMB strengthened, oil prices were pressured, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Spot premiums declined, and import losses widened [4] - **策略观点**: With a high probability of Fed rate cut in December and eased geopolitical risks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The reference range for SHFE copper is 85,800 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,700 - 10,900 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic futures positions and warehouse receipts decreased. Spot premiums declined, and market activity decreased [7] - **策略观点**: Global visible inventory is low, and supply disruptions are expected. Aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,830 dollars/ton [8] Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices declined. Domestic and overseas inventories changed, and the basis and spreads showed certain trends [9] - **策略观点**: Supply is increasing, domestic demand is stable, and inventory is rising. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10] Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined slightly. Zinc ore supply is tight due to winter stockpiling, and zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly [11] - **策略观点**: The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12] Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices rose. Supply is affected by raw material shortages, and demand from emerging fields provides support. Inventory increased slightly, and there are geopolitical risks in Congo (Kinshasa) [13] - **策略观点**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for domestic SHFE tin is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is 36,000 - 38,000 dollars/ton [14] Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot premiums were stable, nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices declined [16] - **策略观点**: Nickel supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. The spot index and futures prices increased [20] - **策略观点**: There are differences in the market regarding short - term demand and future supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract is 92,200 - 100,600 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined slightly. The basis, overseas prices, and inventory showed certain trends [23] - **策略观点**: Overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the industry has over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic AO2601 contract is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased slightly [26] - **策略观点**: Spot prices increased, but demand is weak due to the real - estate market. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded slightly. The contract price, inventory, and basis changed [29] - **策略观点**: Cost support is strong, and supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]
罗平锌电涨停走出2连板
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-26 01:59
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Luoping Zinc & Electric has experienced a significant stock price increase, achieving a limit-up and marking its second consecutive trading day of gains, with a total increase of 20.9% over two days [2] Group 2 - The stock price surge indicates strong market interest and potential investor confidence in Luoping Zinc & Electric [2] - The article highlights the performance of Luoping Zinc & Electric in the context of recent trading activity, suggesting a positive trend in the company's stock [2]
乐观情绪有所升温,基本金属止跌回升
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - term outlooks include "oscillating and bullish" for copper, aluminum, aluminum alloy, lead, tin; "oscillating" for zinc, nickel, stainless steel; and "oscillating with pressure" for alumina [6][10][12][18][24][15][20][23][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Base Metals**: Optimistic sentiment has increased, causing base metals to stop falling and rebound. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions support prices, and a positive macro - environment drives prices up. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [1]. - **Individual Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand and macro - related factors influencing its price trend. For example, copper is affected by Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum by production capacity and demand; zinc by export windows and demand seasons; and tin by supply disruptions and growing demand [6][10][17][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Fed rate - cut expectations are volatile, causing copper prices to consolidate at high levels. The market's implied probability of a December rate cut rose from 40% to 70% after Williams' speech. In October, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. The mid - term outlook is oscillating and bullish [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and prices continue to face pressure. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the market awaits more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances. It is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Aluminum**: Macro - sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices are oscillating at high levels. Domestic production capacity is high, overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long run, and demand is stable. The short - term outlook is oscillating and bullish, and the mid - term price center may rise [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the price is oscillating at high levels. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply has potential production - cut risks, and demand is marginally improving. The short - and mid - term outlooks are oscillating and bullish [12]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and zinc prices are oscillating at high levels. Macro - sentiment is stable but expected to be volatile. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and production is high. Demand is entering the off - season. In the short term, prices may fall from high - level oscillations, and there is more downside in the long term [17]. - **Lead**: LME lead warehousing has slowed, and lead prices may stop falling. Spot premiums are stable, supply is affected by environmental protection and maintenance, and demand is at the end of the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [18]. - **Nickel**: Environmental disturbances at Indonesian MHP producers are causing nickel prices to oscillate. Global visible inventories are increasing, and the market sentiment dominates the price, with a weakening industrial fundamental [20]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel price rebounds have repaired the stainless - steel market. Cost support is weakening, production may decrease in November, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment has improved, and tin prices are oscillating at high levels. Supply is constrained by slow复产 in Wa State, reduced Indonesian exports, and unstable African production. Demand is growing in semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [24]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On November 25, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all showed increases, with gains of 0.46%, 0.57%, 0.19%, and 0.22% respectively [150]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On November 25, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index had a daily increase of 0.40%, a 5 - day increase of 0.15%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.82% [151].
云铝股份(000807.SZ):拟收购云南冶金持有公司部分控股子公司股权
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-11-25 10:29
格隆汇11月25日丨云铝股份(000807.SZ)公布,为进一步做优主业,提高公司电解铝权益产能,提升归 母净利润,公司拟通过非公开协议方式收购云南冶金持有的云铝涌鑫28.7425%股权、云铝润鑫 27.3137%股权及云铝泓鑫30%股权。本次股权收购完成后,公司将持有云铝涌鑫96.0766%股权、云铝润 鑫97.4560%股权、云铝泓鑫100%股权。云南冶金将不再持有前述三家公司的股权。根据中联资产评估 集团有限公司(以下简称"中联资产"或"评估机构")出具的评估报告,扣减云铝涌鑫和云铝润鑫已实施 的2024年度利润分配中支付给云南冶金的分红款后,云铝股份需支付交易对价合计为人民币226,656.37 万元,其中:云铝涌鑫股权交易对价为人民币145,081.95万元,云铝润鑫股权交易对价为人民币 78,756.64万元,云铝泓鑫股权交易对价为人民币2,817.78万元。本次收购的标的正在履行国资备案程 序,公司最终收购价格将按照经国资备案的评估价值确定。 ...