由于布伦特原油价格走弱和石油收入下降，沙特阿拉伯的预算赤字在第三季度有所加深，对其这个石油 出口国的财政造成压力。截至9月的三个月内，沙特的预算缺口达到885亿里亚尔（折合236亿美元）， 使得今年年初以来的总赤字接近500亿美元。财政部的预测显示，第三季度的非石油收入约为317亿美 元，与去年同期持平；而石油收入则从略低于510亿美元下降至约400亿美元。 ...

Operator–Terminali公司董事会主席达米尔·克雷索强调，签署该合同将显著加强波 黑联邦的石油战略储备，确保了石油产品的供应稳定性和能源系统在危机情况下的韧 性，并在供应链中断时协助波黑联邦维持能源价格稳定。这些石油将通过铁路直达存 储地，进一步提高能源储备效率和安全性。 据Operator–Terminali公司介绍，该项目在波黑联邦政府的支持下实施，证明波黑联 邦正在为实现加强能源系统和基础设施能力现代化这一战略目标而努力。公司还将继 续开展对波黑联邦具有战略意义的储备系统和基础设施项目，以确保能源供应的长期 稳定与安全。（驻波黑使馆经商处） （原标题：波黑联邦与HIFA油业公司签署890万马克合同以加强能源储备） 波黑国家台10月28日报道。波黑联邦政府控股的"Operator–Terminali"石油存储公司 与泰沙尼的HIFA油业公司在萨拉热窝签署了一份价值890万马克的合同，宣布将采购 400万升石油及石油衍生品，作为波黑联邦燃料储备的重要组成部分。 ...

Core Insights - The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia possess competitive advantages in the data center market due to their access to cheap energy and substantial financial resources [1] Group 1 - The UAE and Saudi Arabia are well-positioned in the data center competition [1] - Cheap energy is a significant factor contributing to their advantages [1] - Both countries have deep capital pockets, enhancing their investment capabilities in the sector [1]

Trade Relations - The meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi resulted in a trade truce, with the U.S. cutting fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%, leading to a cumulative tariff on China of 47% [3][4] - China has committed to purchasing soybeans, although no specific dollar amount or tonnage was provided, creating uncertainty in the grain market [5][6] - China is expected to reopen rare earth exports for one year and potentially reduce chemicals needed for fentanyl production [4][8] Market Reactions - The market reaction has been mixed, with some fluctuations in equity and commodity markets following the meeting [10][13] - Rare earth stocks are experiencing varied performance, with MP Materials down approximately 0.7% [14] - The agricultural sector is under scrutiny, particularly regarding China's past failures to meet soybean purchase commitments under previous agreements [11][12] Energy Sector - There are discussions about China potentially buying U.S. oil, especially from Alaska, but current inventory levels in China are high, leading to skepticism about immediate purchases [21][22] - OPEC Plus may increase production due to supply disruptions from Russian sanctions, aiming to regain market share and manage U.S. shale production [24] - Geopolitical dynamics, including military movements in Venezuela, could impact oil resources and OPEC Plus's influence [25][26]

国际金价此前连续下跌至三周低点后，吸引投资者逢低买入，加之美联储宣布降息，支撑金价在周三反弹。 贵金属市场方面，国际金价此前连续下跌至三周低点后，吸引投资者逢低买入，加之美联储宣布降息，支撑金价在周三反弹。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所 12月黄金期价收于每盎司4000.7美元，涨幅为0.44%。 29日国际油价上涨 美联储宣布降息25个基点 29日美国三大股指涨跌不一 当地时间周三，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布降息25个基点，符合市场普遍预期。不过两名美联储官员投下反对票。美联储理事米兰主张降 息50个基点，而堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长施密德则支持按兵不动。美联储主席鲍威尔也在讲话中暗示，政府持续"停摆"导致的数据缺失令美联储的决策 趋于谨慎，美联储内部对未来降息路径出现分歧，12月降息并非板上钉钉。 这一言论也给市场对于未来降息的预期泼了盆冷水。美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，其中，道指下跌0.16%，标普500指数几乎收平，受人工智能交易热潮 持续的推动，纳指上涨0.55%，继续创下收盘新高。个股方面，受英伟达宣布入股诺基亚等一系列行业利好消息带动，其股价周三收涨近3%，成为全球首 个市值突破5万亿美元的美 ...

Group 1 - The World Bank's report indicates that global commodity prices are expected to decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, reaching a six-year low due to weak economic growth, oversupply of oil, and ongoing policy uncertainties [1][3] - Precious metal prices are projected to reach historical highs in 2025, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [1][4] - Energy prices are expected to decrease by 12% in 2025 and further by 10% in 2026, with Brent crude oil prices forecasted to drop from $68 per barrel in 2025 to $60 per barrel in 2026, marking a five-year low [4] Group 2 - Food prices are also anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 6.1% in 2025 and a slight drop of 0.3% in 2026, influenced by record production and trade tensions [4] - Fertilizer prices are expected to rise by 21% in 2025 due to increased production costs and trade restrictions, potentially squeezing farmers' profit margins [4] - Gold prices are expected to increase by 42% in 2025 and by an additional 5% in 2026, reaching nearly double the average prices from 2015-2019, while silver prices are projected to rise by 34% in 2025 [4] Group 3 - The report suggests that the decline in commodity prices may exceed expectations if global economic growth remains weak amid trade tensions and policy uncertainties [3][4] - The World Bank recommends that countries abandon price control measures and instead focus on promoting diversified and efficient production, investing in technological innovation, and enhancing data transparency to improve resilience against price volatility [3] - Geopolitical tensions and conflicts could lead to increased oil prices and boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while extreme weather events could disrupt agricultural production and raise food and energy prices [4][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the game between geopolitics and policies. Geopolitical conflicts provide bottom support for prices, but factors such as US shale oil production increase, reduced Indian procurement, and concerns about economic slowdown due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations suppress the upward space. If OPEC+ does not send a clear signal to cut production and US production increases, oil prices may remain in low - level volatility. If geopolitical risks escalate or inventory is depleted more than expected, it may trigger a staged rebound [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On October 29, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 458 yuan/barrel, down 1.78% from the previous day. WTI and Brent closed at 60.18 and 63.86 dollars/barrel respectively, with a decline of over 2%. The SC - Brent spread widened from 0.9 to 1.3 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened from 4.39 to 4.98 dollars/barrel, indicating that SC crude oil was relatively resistant to decline compared to the external market. The Brent - WTI spread slightly widened from 3.49 to 3.68 dollars/barrel, reflecting an increase in Brent's discount to WTI [2] - SC crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4.202 million barrels, indicating stable liquidity in the spot market. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 37,700 liters from the previous week to 10.0272 million liters, and the refinery operating rate increased from 86.2% to 91.2%, suggesting a recovery in refining demand in Asia [3] 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt supply. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and oil storage facilities may suppress Russian refining capacity in the short term, but Russian crude oil exports are not currently affected by sanctions. The production of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in Norway may decline next year, while the production increase at the Bacalhau oilfield in Brazil is going smoothly, and the December loading plan in the North Sea is stable. The supply side shows regional differentiation. The acceleration of US shale oil development and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may increase medium - term supply pressure [4] - **Demand side**: The implied demand for US distillate oil increased from 4.9193 million barrels/day to 5.0873 million barrels/day, showing support from industrial and seasonal demand. The increase in Japan's refinery operating rate and the decrease in refined oil inventory indicate marginal improvement in Asian demand. However, Indian refiners such as MRPL have suspended purchasing Russian oil due to sanctions risks, which may lead to local trade flow adjustments. Germany's high dependence on Russian oil may exacerbate European energy supply uncertainty if it nationalizes Rosneft's business in Germany [4] - **Inventory side**: Japan's crude oil and refined oil inventories have decreased across the board, the US EIA commercial inventory has not shown significant accumulation, and China's SC warehouse receipts are stable. Currently, global inventory pressure is not prominent. However, attention should be paid to the potential impact of US shale oil production increase and Brazil's new production capacity release on future inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On October 29, SC was at 462.6 yuan/barrel, down 0.02% from the previous day; WTI was at 60.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.30%; Brent was at 64.3 dollars/barrel, up 0.69% [7] - **Spot prices**: Among them, the price of OPEC's basket of crude oils remained unchanged at 65.46 dollars/barrel; the price of Brent increased by 1.15 dollars/barrel to 65.62 dollars/barrel, with a rise of 1.78%; the price of Oman decreased by 0.94 dollars/barrel to 64.66 dollars/barrel, a decline of 1.43%, etc. [7] - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread decreased from 1.3 to 0.86 dollars/barrel, a decline of 33.85%; the SC - WTI spread decreased from 4.98 to 4.8 dollars/barrel, a decline of 3.61%; the Brent - WTI spread increased from 3.68 to 3.94 dollars/barrel, a rise of 7.07% [7] - **Other assets**: The US dollar index rose from 98.72 to 99.12, an increase of 0.41%; the S&P 500 index decreased slightly by 0.3 points to 6,890.59 points; the DAX index decreased by 154.42 points to 24,124.21 points, a decline of 0.64%; the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [7] - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 415.966 million barrels, a decline of 1.62%; Cushing inventory increased by 1.334 million barrels to 22.565 million barrels, a rise of 6.28%; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.533 million barrels to 409.097 million barrels, an increase of 0.13% [7] - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rate of US refineries decreased from 88.6% to 86.6%, a decline of 2.26%; the crude oil processing volume of US refineries decreased by 511,000 barrels/day to 1.5219 million barrels/day, a decline of 3.25% [7] 2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU decreased from 2,818 yuan/ton to 2,796 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.78%; LU decreased from 3,273 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%; NYMEX fuel oil increased from 238.58 cents/gallon to 242.28 cents/gallon, an increase of 1.55% [8] - **Spot prices**: Most of the spot prices remained unchanged, with only the Russian M100 CIF price decreasing from 445 dollars/ton to 441 dollars/ton, a decline of 0.90% [8] - **Paper prices**: The prices of high - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 2.61% and 2.56% respectively [8] - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread is not provided, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased from 455 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.10%; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased from - 1,840 yuan/ton to - 1,867 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.47%; the FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased from - 1,808 yuan/ton to - 1,830 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.22% [8] - **Inventory**: Some US distillate inventories decreased, such as the DOE distillate inventory decreasing by 3.362 million barrels to 112.189 million barrels, a decline of 2.91%, while the inventory of US distillates (>500ppm) increased by 49,000 barrels to 7.05 million barrels, an increase of 0.70% [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.1 Supply - On October 29, India's HMEL company suspended further purchases of Russian crude oil. Ukraine attacked two Russian refineries and a natural gas processing plant. Russian crude oil exports are in line with the October plan and are not currently affected by new sanctions. The production of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in Norway may decline next year, while the production increase at the Bacalhau oilfield in Brazil is going smoothly. The loading volume of North Sea crude oil in December is stable. China's Xinjiang Jimusar shale oil annual output has exceeded 1.5 million tons [9][10] 3.2 Demand - The implied demand for US distillate oil in the week ending October 24 increased from 4.9193 million barrels/day to 5.0873 million barrels/day [10] 3.3 Inventory - On October 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's energy - chemical warehouse receipts remained mostly unchanged. As of the week ending October 25, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the refinery operating rate increased [11] 3.4 Market Information - The UK may cancel the windfall profit tax on the oil and gas industry earlier than expected. The Fed's interest - rate decision is expected to be cut. Germany is discussing the nationalization of Rosneft's business in Germany. Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil due to sanctions risks. An Indian - Vitol joint venture is expected to be established in Singapore [12] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent front - month contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data charts [14][16][18]

据香港交易所披露，摩根大通对中国石油天然气股份有限公司 - H股的多头持仓比例于2025年10月24日 从5.44%降至5.43%。 ...

和顺石油公告，第三季度营收为6.7亿元，同比下降11.23%；净利润为775.73万元，同比下降50.65%。 前三季度营收为21.26亿元，同比下降0.13%；净利润为2180.62万元，同比下降49.44%。 ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.90 points, down 0.73%, with a trading volume of 1,070.059 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,532.13 points, down 1.16%, with a trading volume of 1,351.618 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,263.02 points, down 1.84%, with a trading volume of 641.419 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as coal, brokerage, semiconductor, oil, real estate, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines [1] - Conversely, the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors saw gains despite the overall market downturn [1] - The banking sector showed an upward trend, while lithium battery and quantum technology concepts remained active [1]