1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the stock index dropped with heavy trading volume, and the decline of the large - cap stock index was greater. The main reasons for the market decline were the hawkish remarks of Powell at the Fed's July meeting, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, increasing external pressure, and the release of the July manufacturing PMI by the National Bureau of Statistics, which was lower than the previous month and lower than expected. Under the double negative impacts at home and abroad, the stock index declined overall. From the perspective of futures indicators, the volume - weighted average basis of all contracts except IH decreased slightly. The overall sentiment turned pessimistic, and the correction was expected to continue. If the index continued to fall, it was recommended that long - position holders take profit and exit [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index declined collectively on this day. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.82%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 91.756 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM dropped with heavy trading volume, while the other varieties dropped with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected. He also mentioned that the current interest rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation, and it was still too early to judge the impact of tariffs on inflation. - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - If the decline continued, long - position holders could take profit and exit [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.77 | -1.44 | -1.38 | -0.88 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.6196 | 7.5925 | 11.9559 | 26.7774 | | Trading volume month - on - month (10,000 lots) | 1.8165 | 0.4976 | 1.4305 | 3.6495 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0987 | 9.9966 | 22.7163 | 34.8264 | | Open interest month - on - month (10,000 lots) | -0.3716 | -0.3315 | -0.276 | 0.1767 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 19360.35 | | Trading volume month - on - month (100 million yuan) | 917.56 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the rising price center, some high-cost old cotton resources are flowing into the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the far - month. So, the upside of cotton prices is limited. However, before the new cotton is launched, the tight domestic cotton inventory will strongly support cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0713 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lower costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,700 to prevent the rise of procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have dropped significantly, reserve cotton has not been sold, and the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Also, the post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5] Bearish Factors - Mainland spinning mills have further reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang spinning mills' operation is stable, supporting rigid cotton consumption. Although the downstream finished product inventory has slightly decreased, there is still some pressure. Currently, Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth, so there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year output [8] Futures Price and Spread Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,840, down 65 (-0.47%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, down 75 (-0.54%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,650, down 105 (-0.76%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,710, up 10 (0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 20,100 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,770, down 100 (-0.5%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,825, up 170; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 95, up 55; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 150, down 50; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,964, up 122; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 550, down 21 [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,580, down 29 (-0.19%); CCI 2227B was priced at 13,670, down 29 (-0.21%); CCI 2129B was priced at 15,873, down 39 (-0.25%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,930, up 18 (0.13%); FCI Index M was priced at 13,738, up 17 (0.12%); FCI Index L was priced at 13,454, up 17 (0.13%) [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The BPI and BSI freight rate indices continued to decline, and the BHSI also joined the decline. Although the BCI freight rate index rose, its increase narrowed, leading to a narrowing increase in the BDI composite freight rate index. The increase in the shipment of agricultural products and new shipments of resources such as iron ore and bauxite boosted the demand for capesize vessels, supporting the freight rates of capesize vessels. However, the decrease in the shipment of industrial products dragged down the demand for panamax and handy vessels, causing their prices to weaken [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - On July 29, compared with the previous week, the increases in the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index narrowed. The BPI, BSI, and BHSI indices adjusted, with the decline of the BPI index widening. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2,109 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.64%; the BCI index closed at 3,476 points, a week - on - week increase of 13.56%; the BPI index closed at 1,741 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%; the BSI index closed at 1,281 points, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61%; and the BHSI index closed at 677 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On July 29, the FDI index declined across the board. In the routes of the super - handy vessel rent index, the rent of the Indonesia - to - China voyage charter route increased by 0.11% month - on - month. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,321.5 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the FDI rent index closed at 1,610.35 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The rent indices of different ship types also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On July 31, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 43 vessels for shipping, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 30 vessels, and Australia used 5 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 51 vessels, Guinea used 27 vessels, Indonesia used 24 vessels, Russia used 27 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 11 vessels, and the United States used 13 vessels [16]. 3.2 Daily Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 30 vessels were used for corn, 22 for wheat, 20 for soybeans, 11 for soybean meal, and 12 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 93 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. By ship type, agricultural product shipments required the most post - panamax vessels (44), followed by super - handy vessels (22) and handy vessels (23). Industrial product shipments required the most capesize vessels (76), followed by post - panamax vessels (60) and super - handy vessels (54) [17]. 4. Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - The weekly data showed that the number of ships in Chinese, Indonesian, and South African ports continued to increase month - on - month. From July 1 to July 30, the number of dry - bulk ships in Chinese ports increased by 13; the number of ships in Australian ports decreased by 11; the number of ships in Indonesian ports increased by 4; and the number of ships in Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged [17][18]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On July 29, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 3,934.19 yuan/ton. On July 28, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,118/day, and the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $114.6/thousand tons. On July 28, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13,528/day, and on July 29, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 532.98 yuan/ton. On July 28, the handy vessel freight rate index was quoted at 680.8 points, and on August 1, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114/cubic meter [23].

Report Summary 1. Market Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 declined 1.75%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.11%, the Wind All A decreased 0.4%, the Wind A500 dropped 0.15%, and the CSI A500 declined 0.22% [11]. - A - share trading volume reached 1.87 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [11]. 2. Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (Billion Yuan) | Trading Volume (Billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2819.3508 | 0.38 | 1125.97 | 52.19 | | CSI 300 | 4151.2379 | - 0.02 | 4451.68 | 249.85 | | CSI 1000 | 6718.4819 | - 0.82 | 3926.75 | 268.18 | [4] 3. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Option Trading Volume (10,000 Contracts) | | | Option Open Interest (10,000 Contracts) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Put Options | Call Options | PCR | | Call Options | Put Options | PCR | | SSE 50 | 1.91 | 3.71 | 0.51 | 6.82 | 4.29 | 2.53 | 0.59 | | CSI 300 | 4.83 | 7.58 | 0.64 | 19.26 | 10.95 | 8.31 | 0.76 | | CSI 1000 | 11.22 | 13.69 | 0.82 | 26.13 | 13.49 | 12.65 | 0.94 | [4] 4. Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility chains and next - month at - the - money implied volatility and volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations; Gold trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from recent highs; Silver trend intensity is -1, also suggesting a bearish view [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold:沪金2510昨日收盘价773.78,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价770.68,夜盘跌幅0.32%;黄金T+D昨日收盘价769.48,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价767.00,夜盘跌幅0.32%;Comex黄金2510昨日收盘价3327.90,日涨幅0.08% [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日收盘价9192,日跌幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9090.00,夜盘跌幅1.32%;白银T+D昨日收盘价9166,日涨幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9062,夜盘跌幅1.23%;Comex白银2510昨日收盘价37.175,日跌幅3.15% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金2510合约对2512合约价差昨日成交206,379,较前日减少13,553,持仓214,105,较前日增加1,698;Comex黄金2510昨日成交199,901,较前日增加90,801,持仓322,961,较前日增加256,168 [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日成交689,866,较前日增加97,939,持仓392,370,较前日减少373;Comex白银2510昨日成交71,289,较前日增加29,664,持仓121,325, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓955.37,较前日减少1;沪金库存33,462千克,较前日增加2,199;Comex黄金库存（前日）38,166,532金衡盎司,较前日增加132,494 [2]. - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）15,149.90,较前日减少24;沪银库存1,208,094千克,较前日增加3228;Comex白银库存（前日）502,296,559金衡盎司,较前日增加599,929 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU251 -价差昨日为 -4.30, unchanged from the previous day;买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为4.77,较前日减少0.87;黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差昨日为385.68,较前日减少0.60 [2]. - Silver:白银T+D对AG2510价差昨日为32,较前日增加6;沪银2510合约对2512合约价差昨日为 -8,441,较前日增加16;买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为73.41,较前日减少11.3;白银T+D对伦敦银的价差昨日为4,247,较前日减少799 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - 美元指数昨日为99.94,日涨幅1.05%;美元兑人民币（CNY即期）昨日为7.18,日涨幅0.04%;欧元兑美元昨日为1.15,较前日减少0.01;美元兑日元昨日为148.59,较前日增加0.05;英镑兑美元昨日为1.21, unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slowing economic growth. Powell did not provide guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2][4]. - **China's Policies**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide on the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyzed the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August [7]. - **Trade Policies**: Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, etc. (excluding cathode copper and refined copper), causing a 20% plunge in New York copper prices. The US suspended the minimum exemption for low - value goods. Trump said the US would impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, and announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, with South Korea to provide $350 billion in investment to the US. Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by seven days [7]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than expected. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations, but employers are more cautious about hiring decisions [7]. - **Natural Disaster**: An 8.8 - magnitude earthquake struck the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, triggering a tsunami alert in the Pacific Rim, and China launched a second - level emergency response to marine disasters [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main coal and coking contracts hit the daily limit continuously, and the short - term price deviated from the fundamentals. The Dalian Commodity Exchange took position - limit measures for coking coal. The market sentiment cooled down significantly at the beginning of the week, but the overall upward trend remained unchanged. The "anti - involution" policy expectation supported commodity prices, and the pre - parade production restrictions provided a floor for the prices of the black series. In the short term, coal and coking prices were likely to rise rather than fall. It was necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk caused by the macro - policy falling short of expectations. In terms of operation, due to the intense capital game, it was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and to focus on the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1030 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the price range is 1350 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month arbitrage with no spot exposure, it is recommended to short the spread between coking coal contracts 9 - 1 (jm2509&jm2601), with a selling direction and a suggested entry range of (-40, -30) [3]. 3.2 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On July 29, 2025, compared with July 28, 2025, the inventory of rebar increased by 594 tons to 85034 tons; the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 590 tons to 57772 tons; the inventory of iron ore remained unchanged at 3400 hands; the inventory of coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands; the inventory of coke remained unchanged at 760 hands; the inventory of ferrosilicon decreased by 6 sheets to 22003 sheets; and the inventory of silicomanganese decreased by 454 sheets to 78736 sheets [3]. 3.3 Analysis of Core Contradictions - **Market Trend**: The short - term price of coal and coking deviated from the fundamentals, but the overall upward trend remained. The "anti - involution" policy expectation and pre - parade production restrictions supported the prices, making them likely to rise. However, there was a risk of callback due to macro - policy falling short of expectations. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and focus on the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 for arbitrage [4]. 3.4 Interpretation of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines still exists, and the production increase space of mines in the second half of the year may be limited; downstream steel mills have good profits, providing a basis for raw material price increases; the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on subsequent arrivals; the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently; off - balance - sheet inventory of futures and spot has flowed into the market, putting pressure on spot prices [5]. 3.5 Coal and Coking Prices - **Warehouse Receipt Cost and Basis**: The document provides the warehouse receipt cost and basis data of coking coal (including different varieties such as Tangshan Mongolian 5) and coke (including different delivery methods and regions). For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1008, and the main basis is - 109.5 [7]. - **Spot Price**: The document shows the spot prices of various coal and coking products on July 30, 2025, July 29, 2025, and July 23, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal is 1450 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 70 yuan/ton [8]. - **Profit**: Data on import profits of various types of coal (such as Mongolian coal, Australian coal, and Russian coal), export profits of coke, and coking profits are provided. For example, the import profit of long - term contract Mongolian coal is 368 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 28 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 162 yuan/ton [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Trump's tariff threat is essentially a political gaming tool with a weak intention to block Russian oil, and its impact on the crude oil market will be limited to short - term emotional shocks. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, as major macro uncertainties are gradually eliminated, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals [1][12]. Summary by Directory Policy Nature: Political Gaming Takes Precedence over Energy Blockade - The core logic of the US's secondary sanctions signal against Russia is more of a geopolitical pressure tool rather than a substantial energy blockade. The measure of imposing a 100% tariff on countries like China, India, and Brazil that purchase Russian oil has more political intent than actual enforcement effectiveness. Trump chose to start sanctions through an executive order, leaving a 10 - 12 - day negotiation window and room for flexible adjustment. Considering the export and import structures between relevant countries and the US, the sanctions are likely to stay at the level of "extreme pressure", creating a market expectation of "high threat, low execution" [2]. Historical Reference: The "Pulse - like Impact - Rapid Fading" Path of January Sanctions - The Biden administration's sanctions on Russian oil tankers in January this year can be regarded as a preview of the current situation. Although it initially caused Brent crude to jump 6.8% to $81.2 per barrel in 3 trading days, the actual effect was quickly disproven. - There were structural loopholes in the evasion mechanism. Countries like India and Turkey used old tankers for STS transfer, and China and Russia increased the proportion of RMB settlement. Some ports quickly took over the unloading demand of Russian oil [3]. - The market expectation self - corrected. After the 5th trading day of the sanctions announcement, the oil price started to decline because the actual export volume did not drop significantly. Russia adjusted its export structure, and the overall export volume quickly recovered. The freight increase was lower than expected [4]. - Fundamentals played the ultimate leading role. During the sanctions, OPEC+ maintained a production cut of 160 million barrels per day, US shale oil production was stable, and OECD commercial inventories rose, which jointly suppressed the upward space of oil prices. Brent crude returned to the $75 - 80 range within a week. Compared with the current situation, the market has a higher tolerance for geopolitical disturbances, and short - term sharp fluctuations are unlikely to reappear [6]. Market Focus Shift: The OPEC+ Meeting Will Reshape the Oil Price Logic - As the Fed's interest - rate decision in July becomes clear, the crude oil market logic is accelerating its return to fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on August 3 will be a key turning point. - The continuity of the production - cut agreement is a focus. Whether Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary production cut of 100 million barrels per day is crucial. Maintaining the current policy may support the oil price, while relaxation may suppress the geopolitical premium. OPEC+ core members have already restored 191.9 million barrels per day of production, and the remaining voluntary production - cut quota is only 24.5 million barrels per day [7]. - Russia's production statement is important. Despite the sanctions threat, Russia's crude oil production has been stable. If it promises to maintain production discipline at the meeting, it will strengthen the market's expectation of supply tightness. However, the impact of sanctions on global supply is limited due to Russia's adjusted export structure [8]. - The signal of idle - capacity release is significant. Saudi Arabia has about 300 million barrels per day of idle capacity. Whether it hints at increasing production in the fourth quarter will directly affect the medium - and long - term oil price trend. The market generally expects OPEC+ to approve a production increase of 54.8 million barrels per day in September, which may exacerbate the concern of oversupply. OPEC+ decisions usually have a 4 - 6 - week impact on oil prices, longer than the short - term impact of geopolitical events [9]. Viewpoint Summary: Short - Term Disturbances Do Not Change the Medium - Term Pattern - Trump's tariff threat is a short - term emotional shock. Geopolitical risk events have a short - term impact on the crude oil market and cannot reverse the overall trend. As the OPEC+ meeting approaches, the market logic is shifting from geopolitical gaming to fundamentals. The global crude oil market shows a "tight balance" feature, and factors such as stable US shale oil production and rising OECD inventories restrict the upside space of oil prices. Investors should rationally view the current geopolitical premium, hedge the emotional premium in the short term, and focus on structural opportunities after the OPEC+ meeting in the medium term [12].

| | | | | 2025年7月30日菜粕全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 壇減 | | 会员 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖車 | 增减 | | J | 东证期货 | 153,955 | 47.444 | 中信期货 | 88,346 | 545 | 国泰君安 | 54.552 | 1,458 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 132,501 | 34,899 | 摩根大通 | 59,280 | 5,970 | 中信期货 | 52,710 | -3,302 | | 3 | 广发期货 | 79,751 | 27.193 | 乾坤期货 | 55.735 | 3,384 | 中粮期货 | 47,767 | -2,278 | | 4 | 国泰君安 | 67,747 | -9,167 | 东证期货 | 43,537 | 4.463 | 东证期货 | 33,432 | -86 | | 5 | 光大期货 | 51,285 | 6.549 | ...

Core Insights - As of July 30, 2025, the main contract for coking coal (2601) experienced a price increase of 5.88%, with a trading volume of 1.6979 million lots and a net short position of 55,585 lots among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for all coking coal contracts reached 3.7389 million lots, an increase of 776,700 lots compared to the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 431,400 lots, an increase of 24,400 lots, while short positions totaled 525,200 lots, an increase of 30,300 lots [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (55,446 lots), CITIC Futures (54,518 lots), and Yong'an Futures (36,144 lots) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were also held by Guotai Junan (73,115 lots), CITIC Futures (66,242 lots), and Yide Futures (34,436 lots) [1][4]. Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from Guotai Junan (8,636 lots), GF Futures (4,698 lots), and Galaxy Futures (2,397 lots) [1][3]. - The top two decreases in long positions were from Zhongtai Futures (-2,045 lots) and Founder Futures (-646 lots) [1][3]. - The top three increases in short positions were from CITIC Futures (8,605 lots), Guotai Junan (6,137 lots), and Shenyin Wanguo (4,218 lots) [1][3]. - The top two decreases in short positions were from Galaxy Futures (-415 lots) and COFCO Futures (-226 lots) [1][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short term, the volatility of London gold has increased. Given the upcoming significant events and data this week, market fluctuations may intensify. For London gold, the support level is at the 3300 mark, and resistance levels are at 3350, 3370, and 3400. For London silver, the support range is 37.8 - 38, and resistance levels are at 38.3, 38.7, 39, and 39.5. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and fluctuated. The US dollar index rose, the yield of the 10Y US Treasury bond dropped significantly, the US stock market pulled back, the European stock market rose, the Chinese stock market was relatively strong, Bitcoin fluctuated, and crude oil prices rose due to the US threat to impose tariffs on Russia if the cease - fire agreement deadline is advanced to August 8. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3383 per ounce, up 0.48%; the US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.385 per ounce, up 0.43%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 771.44 yuan per gram, down 0.24%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9195 yuan per kilogram, down 0.33% [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations fluctuated slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 2.6%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates was 34.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 1.7%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates was 15.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 47.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 35.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut was 0.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 956.23 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15173.92 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.4 tons to 1204.9 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons in the week ending July 25 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week has a dense schedule of data, including end - of - month and beginning - of - month important US PCE, non - farm payroll reports, ISM manufacturing PMI, etc. In terms of events, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report at 21:45 on Wednesday. The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:30. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report on Thursday afternoon [4]. Price and Spread Data - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 771.44 yuan per gram, down 0.43%; SGX gold TD was at 767.19 yuan per gram, down 0.57%; CME gold main contract was at $3325.3 per ounce, up 0.34%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 9195 yuan per kilogram, down 0.18%; SGX silver TD was at 9163 yuan per kilogram, down 0.25%; CME silver main contract was at $38.385 per ounce, up 0.14%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 4.25 yuan per gram, up 32.81%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 32 yuan per kilogram, up 30%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 86.6302, up 0.2% [5][6]. Inventory and Position Data - SHFE gold inventory was 31263 kilograms, up 3.32%; CME gold inventory was 1187.1127 tons, up 0.35%; SHFE gold position was 212407 lots, up 1.3%; SPDR gold position was 956.23 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 1204.866 tons, down 0.28%; CME silver inventory was 15623.181 tons, up 0.12%; SGX silver inventory was 1368.435 tons, up 4.3%; SHFE silver position was 392743 lots, down 1.43%; SLV silver position was 15173.916734 tons, up 0.09% [11]. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.9021, up 0.25%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1812, unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44632.99 points, down 0.46%; WTI crude oil spot was $69.21 per barrel, up 3.75%; LmeS copper 03 was $9803 per ton, up 0.41%. The 10Y US Treasury bond yield was 4.34%, down 1.81%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 1.91%, down 3.54%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury bond yield spread was 0.48%, down 5.88% [15].