Report Title - Nanhua Metal Daily: High-level Operation with Intensified Fluctuations [1] Report Date - October 15, 2025 [2] Market Review - On Tuesday, the rally in the precious metals sector stalled. Gold edged up, while silver rallied and then pulled back. European and US stocks fluctuated, and Bitcoin continued to decline. The silver lease rate dropped slightly, indicating a slight easing of the tightness in the physical silver market. However, dovish remarks from Fed officials continued to support precious metals, especially gold prices. Fed Chair Powell signaled a dovish stance, acknowledging that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September meeting and highlighting the prominent downside risks in the job market, suggesting that the window for rate cuts has opened. He also mentioned the possibility of halting quantitative tightening (QT) earlier due to recent signs of tightening liquidity, emphasizing the need to avoid a repeat of the "repo crisis" in 2019. Fed Governor Bowman explicitly predicted two more rate cuts by the end of the year. Fed 2025 voting member Collins said that a 25-basis-point rate cut might be appropriate. The "New Fed Wire" reported that the Fed is on a "rate-cutting track," setting the tone for a rate cut at the end of October. The market is betting on a further rate cut in December. Investors should continue to monitor the US "232" investigation into silver and palladium, with the results expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive issue of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on silver and palladium. Finally, the COMEX December 2025 gold contract closed at $4,159.6 per ounce, up 0.64%; the December 2025 silver contract closed at $50.345 per ounce, down 0.17%. The SHFE December 2025 gold contract closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 2.7%; the December 2025 silver contract closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, up 2.64% [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations remained stable overall. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 2.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 97.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 6.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 93.5%. In terms of long-term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.57 tons to 1,021.45 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 21.17 tons to 15,733.09 tons. In terms of inventories, SHFE silver inventories decreased by 44.6 tons to 1,124.4 tons per day; as of the week ending September 26, SGX silver inventories decreased by 43.6 tons to 1,124.4 tons per week [3]. This Week's Focus - In terms of data, investors should focus on the US September retail sales and PPI data this week. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, has been postponed to October 24. In terms of events, there will be a flurry of speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the US FOMC meeting on October 31. At 00:30 on Thursday, Fed Governor Milan will speak at the Nomura Research Forum; at 02:00, ECB President Lagarde will participate in a debate on the global economy organized by the International Monetary Fund; at 21:00, Fed Governor Waller will speak. Also at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; at 00:15 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak [4]. Nanhua's View - In the medium to long term, the outlook is bullish, but short-term fluctuations will increase. It is advisable to wait and see or engage in short-term trading with quick entry and exit. However, pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to build long positions in the medium to long term. The resistance levels for London gold are $4,200 and then $4,300, with support in the $4,100 area. The resistance level for silver is $55, and the support level is $50 [5] Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table | | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan per gram | 938.98 | 11.42 | 1.23% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan per gram | 939.95 | 13.47 | 1.45% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars per ounce | 4,159.6 | 29.6 | 0.72% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan per kilogram | 11,533 | 2 | 0.02% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan per kilogram | 11,530 | 77 | 0.67% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars per ounce | 50.345 | -0.43 | -0.85% | | SHFE-TD Gold | Yuan per gram | -0.97 | -2.05 | -189.81% | | SHFE-TD Silver | Yuan per kilogram | 3 | -75 | 239.13% | | CME Gold-Silver Ratio | / | 82.6219 | 1.2827 | 1.58% | [6] Inventory and Position Table | | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilograms | 72,183 | 1,455 | 2.06% | | CME Gold Inventory | Tons | 1,233.586 | -2.0018 | -0.16% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lots | 228,459 | -11,537 | -4.81% | | SPDR Gold Position | Tons | 1,021.45 | 2.57 | 0.25% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Tons | 1,063.072 | -61.384 | -5.46% | | CME Silver Inventory | Tons | 16,037.977 | -141.8256 | -0.88% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Tons | 1,108.065 | -64.305 | -5.49% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lots | 467,690 | -27,889 | -5.63% | | SLV Silver Position | Tons | 15,733.091271 | -21.1697 | -0.13% | [17][18] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary | | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.0393 | -0.2051 | -0.21% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1408 | 0.0042 | 0.06% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Points | 46,270.46 | 202.88 | 0.44% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars per barrel | 58.7 | -0.79 | -1.33% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars per ton | 10,584.5 | -217.5 | -2.01% | | 10-Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.03 | -0.02 | -0.49% | | 10-Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.73 | -0.02 | -1.14% | | 10-2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.55 | 0.02 | 3.77% | [24]

Core Insights - The document highlights the significant progress made in the futures market in Shenzhen over the past year, following the issuance of the regulatory guidelines aimed at enhancing risk prevention and promoting high-quality development in the futures market [1] Group 1: Enhancing Service to the Real Economy - The guidelines emphasize improving the quality and efficiency of the commodity futures market to better meet the risk management needs of real enterprises, particularly in the context of building a manufacturing powerhouse [2] - Several Shenzhen futures companies have developed diverse and efficient products to facilitate a positive interaction between the real economy and the financial system, addressing issues such as procurement difficulties and price volatility [2] - Companies like CITIC Futures and Jinrui Futures have focused on product innovation and tailored risk management solutions for various industries, including agriculture and small to medium enterprises [2][3] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Compliance - The guidelines stress the importance of leveraging big data and enhancing data analysis capabilities to transition towards a digital, intelligent, and responsive futures market [5] - Shenzhen futures companies are actively pursuing digital transformation, utilizing technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence to improve compliance and service efficiency [5][7] - Companies like Zhongjin Lingnan Futures have implemented advanced monitoring systems to detect potential risks and enhance their risk management capabilities [8] Group 3: Addressing Industry Pain Points - Futures companies are developing platforms to address common challenges faced by industry clients, such as price volatility and complex hedging tools, exemplified by the launch of the "Wukuang Wenci" service platform by Wukuang Futures [9][10] - The platform integrates AI and industry data to provide comprehensive services, including knowledge empowerment and risk warnings, significantly improving service response times [9] Group 4: Commitment to Sustainable Development - Shenzhen futures companies are focusing on integrating green finance into their operations, with initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable development and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) practices [11][12] - Companies are establishing research platforms and forums to enhance the understanding and application of green finance within the futures market, contributing to the overall goal of a resilient and transparent futures market by 2035 [11][12]

Core Insights - The event "Investment Education New Vision: Guangdong Investment Education" held in Guangzhou focused on utilizing micro-videos as an effective medium for financial education, addressing traditional challenges in the sector [2][5] - Award-winning representatives from various financial institutions shared practical experiences in creating investment education micro-videos, aiming to provide replicable and scalable models for the industry [2][5] Group 1: Audience-Centric Approaches - Guangfa Futures emphasized the importance of storytelling and emotional resonance in investment education, using relatable characters like "Old Wu" to convey complex financial concepts [5][7] - The approach included creating diverse content tailored to different demographics, such as comic videos for younger investors and Q&A series for beginners, enhancing both emotional connection and knowledge transfer [5][7] Group 2: Creative and Technical Insights - Zhongliang Futures dissected the creative logic behind micro-video production, focusing on audience needs and employing structured storytelling to make professional knowledge relatable [7][9] - The team highlighted the significance of detailed pre-production planning and the use of engaging visual techniques to enhance viewer experience [7][9] Group 3: Practical Guidelines for Production - Wanlian Securities addressed common challenges in video creation, offering a replicable methodology to avoid pitfalls like creative stagnation and content misalignment [9][10] - The company shared practical tips on selecting themes, enhancing narrative appeal, and ensuring clarity in communication to effectively engage investors [9][10] Group 4: AI in Content Creation - Guangfa Securities discussed the integration of AI in video production, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency while maintaining content quality [10][12] - The process involved using AI for scriptwriting, topic selection, and ensuring compliance with regulatory standards, emphasizing the need for meticulous oversight at each production stage [10][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the changes in capital market sentiment. If the A-share market starts to adjust, it will be beneficial for the bond market to rise. The recommended operation is to partially take profits on long positions at low levels and hold some to observe if it can continue to rise. For those with no positions, it is advisable to go long on dips [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher, with all varieties closing up. Most spot bond yields declined, with a larger decline in the long - end yields in the afternoon, but the decline narrowed at the end of the session. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 9.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 9.1 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China has officially imposed special port fees on US ships starting today. Industry insiders suggest that a document to strengthen the regulation of photovoltaic production capacity may be issued soon [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - The capital market sentiment changed again today. In the morning, the stock market opened higher while the bond market sentiment was low. After the opening, bond futures once retraced deeply, and then the bond market recovered as the stock market declined. In the afternoon, the sharp decline of the stock market drove up the gains of medium - and long - term bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect again. From the market trends in the past two days, the A - share market has some adjustment pressure due to the excessive rise of the main sectors. With November 1st being an important node for the China - US meeting, the capital market may have a certain cautious attitude before then. If the A - share market starts to adjust in the future, it will be conducive to the rise of the bond market [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 14 | 2025 - 10 - 13 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.386 | 102.366 | 0.02 | | TF2512 | 105.765 | 105.665 | 0.1 | | T2512 | 108.19 | 108.05 | 0.14 | | TL2512 | 114.74 | 114.37 | 0.37 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0117 | 0.0017 | - 0.0134 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.002 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0631 | 0.082 | - 0.0189 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2925 | 0.3522 | - 0.0597 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 74633 | 74436 | 197 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 155962 | 147179 | 8783 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 263295 | 252554 | 10741 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 180122 | 172579 | 7543 | | TS Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 32167 | 31658 | 509 | | TF Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 73462 | 60280 | 13182 | | T Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 125811 | 85927 | 39884 | | TL Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 155935 | 124744 | 31191 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to central bank dynamics. In the context of the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market remained stable, and the bond market yield showed certain fluctuations. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it will not change the rhythm of monetary policy, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may remain in a volatile pattern. It is not advisable to chase high in operations, and long positions should wait for pullbacks to be established [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow fluctuations in the morning and a decline in the afternoon, resulting in a narrowing of gains. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchases were 13.78 billion yuan, with a net investment of 13.78 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Intra - day News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export control of rare earths and other items is not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and return to the right track of dialogue and negotiation. - Vance said that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China, and he had a conversation with Trump over the weekend. Trump "cherishes" friendship with China, and both hope not to use more bargaining chips against China [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - In the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market opened above 3800 points and closed slightly lower, maintaining a range - bound pattern. Bond yields decreased compared to Friday but increased compared to Saturday. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it won't change the monetary policy rhythm, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may not break out of the volatile pattern. It's not advisable to chase high, and long positions should wait for pullbacks [3] 3.4 Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 13 Price | 2025 - 10 - 10 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 13 Position (Hands) | 2025 - 10 - 10 Position (Hands) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.366 | 102.352 | 0.014 | 74436 | 74447 | - 11 | | TF2512 | 105.665 | 105.655 | 0.01 | 147179 | 145873 | 1306 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.96 | 0.09 | 252554 | 250716 | 1838 | | TL2512 | 114.37 | 114.02 | 0.35 | 172579 | 173374 | - 795 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0017 | - 0.0385 | 0.0402 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.001 | - 0.058 | 0.059 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.082 | 0.031 | 0.051 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3522 | 0.2355 | 0.1167 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 31658 | 30556 | 1102 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 60280 | 50839 | 9441 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 85927 | 68299 | 17628 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 124744 | 108237 | 16507 | | | | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - Today's stock market declined, fully erasing yesterday's gains. Although the trading volume of the two markets decreased, it remained above 2.5 trillion yuan. The decline in precious metals overnight led to a drop in the structural driving force, causing non - ferrous metals to correct significantly and technology - related concepts to lead the decline. Cyclical industries showed relatively strong performance but with limited driving force. Short - term structural changes may continue to cause the stock index to fluctuate widely. With important information to be released at home and abroad later this month, the stock market is unlikely to deviate significantly from the current level, and the correction space is limited. It is necessary to observe whether the support of the 5 - day moving average is effective [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.97%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 137.583 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IC declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3] Important Information - On October 10, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued an announcement on adjusting the technical requirements for energy - saving and new - energy vehicle products eligible for vehicle and vessel tax incentives. Reuters reported on October 10 that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased again last week, indicating that some contractors related to the US government shutdown laid off employees in advance. Starting from October 14, 2025, the maritime management institutions at the ports where the ships berth will collect special port fees for ships owned, operated by US enterprises, organizations or individuals, or ships with US - related equity stakes, US - flagged ships, and ships built in the US [4] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6] Futures Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 2.18%, - 1.60%, - 2.24%, and - 1.71% respectively. The trading volumes were 1.6215 million lots, 0.73933 million lots, 1.7039 million lots, and 2.3345 million lots respectively, with环比 increases of 0.26302 million lots, 0.14217 million lots, 0.14916 million lots, and 0.19721 million lots respectively. The open interests were 2.78581 million lots, 1.05743 million lots, 2.60074 million lots, and 3.56927 million lots respectively, with环比 changes of 0.01506 million lots, 0.0217 million lots, - 0.08282 million lots, and 0.03851 million lots respectively [6][8] Spot Market Observation - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were - 0.94% and - 2.70% respectively. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 2,515.614 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.583 billion yuan compared with the previous day [8]

Macro News - The main gold futures in Shanghai reported at 914.32 CNY per gram, with an increase of 4.82%, opening at 909.96 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 918.88 CNY and a low of 903.40 CNY [1] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks imported to the U.S. starting November 1, 2025 [1] - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that the government shutdown is reducing U.S. economic output by approximately 15 billion USD per week, which could lower GDP by about 0.1 percentage points weekly [1] - The ongoing trade war with China has led to a significant drop in U.S. soybean exports and prices, causing distress among farmers [1] - The ADP employment report for September showed a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 51,000, raising the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve to 99% [1] Institutional Perspectives - During the holiday period, multiple favorable factors have led to a strong performance in precious metals, with gold prices reaching a historical high of over 4,000 USD per ounce [2] - The government shutdown has raised concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy and society, with potential increases in unemployment if the shutdown continues [2] - The rise of right-wing politics in Japan may lead to intensified stimulus policies, although there are challenges to policy discipline [2] - The recent resignation of France's new Prime Minister within 30 days highlights increasing governance difficulties in the French economy [2] - The escalation of trade tensions due to new tariffs on Chinese furniture and other products indicates that many risk events are unlikely to be resolved in the short term [2] - Despite significant gains in precious metals, technical and fundamental conditions suggest the potential for further upward movement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Insurance + Futures" project for natural rubber in Gengma County, Yunnan Province, has been successfully completed with the support of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Guolian Futures, enhancing financial services and contributing to rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is in its second year in Gengma County, which is located in the southwestern part of Yunnan Province [1] - Natural rubber planting and harvesting is a primary method for local residents to increase their income, making the introduction of the "Insurance + Futures" model beneficial for farmers to mitigate price volatility risks [1] Group 2: Company Initiatives - Guolian Futures aims to deepen and innovate the "Insurance + Futures" business model through this project, improving the effectiveness and coverage of financial services [1] - The company has participated in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber project for seven consecutive years and will continue to support rural revitalization efforts in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the legal implications of a futures intermediary being pressured by a futures company to sign a supplementary agreement containing clauses deemed unreasonable, highlighting the nature of standard contract terms and the validity of the existing contract [1]. Group 1: Contractual Nature - Standard terms are defined as clauses pre-drafted for repeated use without negotiation with the other party, characterized by being unilaterally drafted, reused, and non-negotiated [1]. - The futures intermediary's contract with the futures company is not considered a standard term contract since it changes annually and involves acceptance of the company's offer, indicating a genuine expression of intent between both parties [1]. Group 2: Legal Implications - The futures intermediary is advised to weigh the pros and cons before deciding whether to sign the related documents, emphasizing the importance of understanding the contractual obligations and potential consequences of non-signature [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New - season supply pressure is emerging, with new grain quotes dropping after a high opening, and prices will face pressure during the peak listing period [1]. - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as a large amount of new grain enters the market [1]. - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of a bumper harvest forecast and awaiting further supply - side guidance [1]. - The price of Dalian corn futures has declined again. Attention should be paid to the cumulative risk of spot prices during the National Day holiday. It is recommended to hold short positions or remain on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - **Corn Futures**: From September 26 to September 29, 2025, corn 11 dropped from 2178 to 2159, a decrease of 19 or - 0.87%; corn 01 dropped from 2139 to 2135, a decrease of 4 or - 0.19%; other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline, except for corn 09 which remained unchanged [1]. - **Corn Starch Futures**: Corn starch 11 rose from 2480 to 2483, an increase of 3 or 0.12%, while other contracts such as corn starch 01, 03, etc. showed small declines [1]. - **Wheat Average Price**: It rose from 2448 to 2450, an increase of 2 or 0.08% [1]. - **Spot and Basis**: For corn, the prices in ports like Jinzhou, Shekou, and Harbin remained unchanged, with Jinzhou Port main - contract basis rising by 19 to 141; for corn starch, prices in Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained unchanged, and Shandong main - contract basis dropped by 3 to 297 [9]. - **US Corn and Related Products**: CBOT corn main - contract remained at 421.5, COBT soybean main - contract dropped from 1009.25 to 1004.5, a decrease of 4.75 or - 0.47%, CBOT wheat main - contract dropped from 519 to 518.75, a decrease of 0.25 or - 0.05%. The US Gulf完税 price dropped from 2151.47 to 2133.7, a decrease of 17.77 or - 0.83%, with an import profit of 326.3; the US West完税 price dropped from 2008.88 to 1993.92, a decrease of 14.96 or - 0.74%, with an import profit of 466.08 [21]. Market Factors - **Positive Factors**: The State Grain Reserve Corporation has started purchasing new - season corn, alleviating the market's pessimistic sentiment; rainfall in some North China production areas has delayed the harvest, resulting in a tight supply of old - season grain [1]. - **Negative Factors**: Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the short - term supply surplus is putting pressure on prices; the mid - and downstream acquisition mentality is cautious, waiting for lower prices [1].