肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80540 | 73000-80000 | 9.38% | 10.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 买入 | 75% | 75000附近 | | | | ...

Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report dated July 3, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tin market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector's expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the potential slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion [3][4][5][6] Detailed Summaries Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.24%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.9% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, sell 100% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data (Daily) - Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three all closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, 268,520 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M was at 33,625 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars (- 0.37%). The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92, down 0.09 (- 1.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots were at 268,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.44%); 1 tin premium was at 400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (- 42.86%); 40% tin concentrate was at 256,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.56%); 60% tin concentrate was at 260,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.52%); 60A solder bar was at 174,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.05%); 63A solder bar was at 181,750 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan (2.25%); lead - free solder was at 274,750 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan (2.42%) [10][13] Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss was - 16,263.89 yuan/ton, up 948.87 yuan (- 5.51%); 40% tin ore processing fee was 12,200 yuan/ton, with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee was 10,550 yuan/ton, with no change [15] Inventory Data (Daily) - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts totaled 6,888 tons, up 122 tons (1.8%); Guangdong warehouse receipts were 4,270 tons, up 56 tons (1.33%); Shanghai warehouse receipts were 1,693 tons, up 66 tons (4.06%); LME tin inventory totaled 2,175 tons, down 45 tons (- 2.03%) [20]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月2日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 重要资讯 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果不是因为美国总统特朗普的关税政策，美联储目前应该会采取更宽松的货币 政策。在被问及7月份降息的可能性时，鲍威尔称不会排除任何可能性，这将取决于数据。他表示，美联 储"绝大多数"成员确实预计今年晚些时候再次降息是合适的。 2.中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 核心观点 今日两市成交额延续缩量，中小盘指数终结连涨，回落调整。如我们昨日所言，持续缩量下，指数上行动能 减弱，难以维持上行趋势。昨日中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，受此影响，相关板块例如海洋经济板块今 日大涨。当前信息面较平淡，红利指数连续两日领涨，表明市场情绪偏谨慎。不过今日各期指均贴水收敛， 尤其IC、IM贴水收敛幅度较大，可见市场对指数未来走势不算悲观，下方空间有限，预计短期区间震荡为 主。本月重点关注7月下旬召开的中央政治局，将分析下半年经济形势，部署宏观政策方向，或对股指产生一 定影响。 策略推荐 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle logic of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous pressure of oversupply. The supply may increase as the wet season approaches, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is mixed, and it is necessary to wait for the inventory to reach a healthy level [3]. - Polysilicon is in the logic of strong supply and weak demand. The photovoltaic rush has overdrafted some future demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the situation of the polysilicon industry [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.2%, a daily increase of 4.11%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 95.9% [2]. - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,210 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 445 yuan (5.73%); the trading volume is 1,643,648 lots, with a daily increase of 413,341 lots (33.60%); the open interest is 386,361 lots, with a daily increase of 25,285 lots (7.00%) [9]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management, when the product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short the futures (SI2509) with a hedging ratio of 30%, sell call options (70%), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there is a production plan and a risk of raw material price increase, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include limited short - term cost collapse space, low profit valuation, and increased probability of supply - side disturbances; downstream enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season will reduce production costs and increase profits, promoting production enthusiasm [6]. - Bearish factors include the approaching wet season leading to increased production capacity in Southwest China and the possible joint production cuts of downstream polysilicon enterprises, weakening demand [7]. Spot and Basis - The latest price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.76%); the basis of East China 553 is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-40.14%) [14]. - The latest price of East China 421 industrial silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.7%); the basis of East China 421 is 740 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-28.5%) [14]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 51,916 lots, a decrease of 221 lots (-0.78%) [23]. Polysilicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the polysilicon futures main contract is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.74%, a daily increase of 8.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 83.73% [2]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 35,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,350 yuan (7.19%); the trading volume is 411,586 lots, with a daily increase of 150,096 lots (57.40%); the open interest is 95,005 lots, with a daily increase of 33,809 lots (55.25%) [25]. Risk Management Strategies - Similar to industrial silicon, for inventory management, short the futures (PS2509) and use options strategies; for procurement management, buy long - term futures contracts and use options strategies [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include possible future production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry and the market's trading of the phenomenon of futures - end positions and warehouse receipts [6]. - Bearish factors include the failure of polysilicon enterprise integration and elimination, and the increase in production due to low raw material prices and the approaching wet season [7]. Spot and Basis - The price of polysilicon spot has increased. For example, the price of re - feeding material is 32.5 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1 yuan (3.17%) [31]. - The basis of the polysilicon futures main contract is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan (-26.92%) [31]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 2,600 lots, a decrease of 180 lots compared to the previous day [35]. Other Related Data - The silicon chain index is 0.3577, with a daily increase of 0.0279 (8.46%) [32].

贵金属产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.04 | -0.06 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8747 | -63 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 168596 | 1131 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 249023 | -15701 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 143164 | 3150 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 91814 | 972 | | 现货市场 | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18456 | 3 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1338659 | -185 | | | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 772.9 | 4.71 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8734 | 46 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.14 | 4.77 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | -13 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月02日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.40%,成交量6.89万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为2560手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交7.43万手，比上一日减少7349手。全合约前20席位多头持仓11.81万手，比上一日增加3700 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓12.36万手，比上一日增加3656手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓25049、国泰君安，总持仓18711、东证期货，总持仓13132；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓15270、银河期货，总持仓14229、中信期货，总持仓13227； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓6843、增仓561，国泰君安、持仓14742、增仓544，东证期货、持 仓12389、增仓288；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓20511、减仓-148，宏源期货、持仓3727、减仓-96，海通期货、持 仓1702、减仓-13； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓14440、增仓1353，中信期货、持仓10524、增仓971，西部期货、 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月02日收盘主力合约工业硅2509,涨跌+4.79%,成交量164.36万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为45874手。 工业硅期货全合约总计成交201.46万手，比上一日新增44.89万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓38.55万手，比上一日增加3.89万手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓44.61万手，比上一日增加3.91万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓46040、中信建投，总持仓36781、中信期货，总持仓32313；空头前三 席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓61910、中信建投，总持仓37797、银河期货，总持仓37486； 2025年7月2日工业硅主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 415.774 | 114,599 | 国泰君安期货 29,231 | | 4,177 | 国泰 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of China-US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the lower-than-expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion to a contraction cycle [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 269,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.08%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data - The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 269,840 yuan/ton, 269,840 yuan/ton, and 269,520 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 33,750 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 185 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.55%. The Shanghai-London ratio is 7.92, with a daily decrease of 0.09 and a daily decrease rate of -1.12% [6] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, and various types of solder bars and lead-free solder have different weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.06% [9] Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,263.89 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 948.87 yuan and a daily decrease rate of -5.51%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [14] Inventory Data - The latest warehouse receipt quantities of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (total, Guangdong, and Shanghai) and the LME tin inventory have different daily changes. For example, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,750 tons, with a daily increase of 199 tons and a daily increase rate of 3.04% [16]

| 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 买入 | 75% | 75000附近 | | | | | - | - | - | - | - | source： 重要新闻： 2025年7月2日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80640 | 7 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that precious metals, particularly gold, are experiencing a rebound, influenced by economic data and market conditions, with a focus on upcoming U.S. employment data [1][2][3] - Guotou Futures notes that the recent drop in the dollar to a three-year low has supported the rebound in precious metals, although there was a slight pullback after the release of economic data [1] - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 from $3015 to $3215 per ounce, citing increased market risks and rising U.S. government debt [3] Group 2 - New Lake Futures indicates that the London spot gold price has continued its upward trend, surpassing $3300 per ounce, with attention shifting towards tariffs as the 90-day exemption period approaches [2] - Marex analysts suggest that rising U.S. debt and inflationary pressures from proposed tax cuts and spending will likely benefit gold prices, as gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset [3] - The market anticipates that central bank gold purchases will slow if prices exceed $3300 per ounce, but demand may increase if prices correct to around $3000 per ounce [3]