近日， 由上 海财经大学金融学院主办的第四届开放经济与宏观金融会议 在上海举行。清华大学五道口金融学院讲席教授，国家金融研究院副院长 鞠建东在主题演讲中，提出"全球制造业再平衡的充分必要条件是国际货 币体系再平衡"的关键主张，认为20 26- 20 27年将是资本账户开放战略窗 口期，建议以"渐进+防火墙"模式推进人民币资本项目可兑换，以降低外 部关税、金融制裁与地缘冲突风险。 尊敬的各位老师、各位嘉宾、各位老朋友，大家好！非常高兴有这样一个机会，围绕资本账户开放这一议题，分享我与合作者相关研究成果中的 核心观点。 一、美国短债违约风险与特里芬转折点 我想提出的第一个问题是：如果美国短债存在违约风险该怎么办，此类违约风险又会在什么情况下出现？这一问题的核心，在于国际经济金融体 系中，实体经济（含制造业）与金融行业是否需要维持均衡发展。实际上，这个问题恰好可以解释特朗普政府推行"对等关税"政策的深层动因。 2024年，特朗普团队中的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在其撰写的《重构全球贸易体系用户指南》（以下简称"米兰报告"）中，明确提出了"特 里芬转折点"这一概念，精准探讨了美国金融体系崩溃的可能性（ ...

大业股份(603278)今日跌停，全天换手率12.80%，成交额5.74亿元，振幅4.95%。龙虎榜数据显示，营 业部席位合计净买入1715.76万元。 上交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日跌幅偏离值达-9.70%上榜，营业部席位合计净买入1715.76万元。 资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流出1296.07万元，其中，特大单净流出388.96万元，大单资金净流 出907.11万元。近5日主力资金净流出6392.86万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交9209.85万元，其中，买入成交额为 5462.80万元，卖出成交额为3747.04万元，合计净买入1715.76万元。 具体来看，今日上榜营业部中，第一大买入营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部，买入金额为 1590.52万元，第一大卖出营业部为东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨金融城南环路证券营业部，卖出金 额为847.38万元。 近半年该股累计上榜龙虎榜10次，上榜次日股价平均涨1.94%，上榜后5日平均涨2.35%。 | 买/ | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万 | 卖出金额（万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jintong Tianyu (300988), has established a pricing model based on "main raw material prices + processing fees," which allows for a stable price linkage mechanism with customers [1] Group 1: Pricing Mechanism - The company regularly updates and adjusts the base prices of main raw materials according to market fair prices [1] - This pricing mechanism effectively transmits market price fluctuations of bulk materials such as copper and aluminum [1] - The approach helps to mitigate the direct impact of drastic changes in raw material costs on the company's overall operating performance [1]

Group 1 - The forum "Sina Finance 2025 Annual Conference and the 18th Golden Unicorn Forum" will be held on January 15, 2026, in Beijing, focusing on the theme of "The 14th Five-Year Plan Starts, Economic New Voyage - Reshaping Growth Paradigms, Creating Future Prosperity" [1][31] - Li Ling, Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, will deliver a speech on "Pension and Health Red Power, Reform of Medical and Health Systems from a Global Comparative Perspective" [2][32] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $38 trillion, and the fiscal situation is deteriorating, which is a fundamental reason for the country's decline [5][36] - In 2025, U.S. fiscal revenue is projected to be $5.235 trillion, with major expenditures including Medicare and Medicaid, which together exceed $1.6 trillion, making healthcare the largest expenditure item [6][7][37] - The U.S. healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP has surpassed its industrial value-added percentage, indicating a decline in industrial competitiveness due to high healthcare costs [10][40] Group 3 - China's healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP has dropped below 7% for the first time in 2024, while industrial value-added remains high, showcasing effective healthcare reforms [13][43] - The aging population poses significant challenges, with over 300 million people aged 60 and above in China, leading to increased healthcare demands [14][43] - The "Healthy China National Strategy" prioritizes health development, shifting from a disease-centered approach to a health-centered one, emphasizing prevention and investment in health [19][48] Group 4 - The government is promoting a "Three Ming Model" for healthcare, integrating county, township, and village healthcare systems to incentivize health management rather than treatment [23][52] - The new "Health+" development paradigm aims to integrate healthcare, medicine, green food, wellness, and elderly care into a large health industry, which is expected to exceed the real estate sector in scale [25][55] - The future model of "Healthy China" will utilize AI and digital technologies for comprehensive health management throughout individuals' lifecycles [28][58] Group 5 - The integration of traditional Chinese wisdom with industrialization and information technology is seen as a unique opportunity for China to contribute to global health solutions [29][59]

Core Viewpoint - Resource commodities are emerging as a core investment direction due to macroeconomic changes and asset price revaluation, driven by U.S. fiscal expansion and a shift towards looser monetary policy, alongside domestic demand for key metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium [1][3][4] Global Macro Perspective - The combination of U.S. fiscal expansion and low interest rates is expected to drive global funds to reprice major assets, with a renewed focus on precious metals like gold due to increased demand from central banks and institutional investors [3] - The restructuring of global manufacturing, including the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and increased focus on energy security in Europe, is enhancing the underlying demand for resource commodities [3][4] Domestic Demand Dynamics - The new productive forces in China are creating a new demand structure for resource commodities, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and energy storage, where lithium shows strong demand elasticity [4] - The inventory cycle is shifting from passive destocking to active restocking, indicating a structural change in demand for raw materials and midstream products [4] Investment Framework - The resource commodities are categorized into defensive assets like gold and certain energy resources, and offensive assets like industrial metals (copper, aluminum) and rare resources, emphasizing a balanced "attack and defense" strategy [5][6] - Gold is highlighted as a defensive asset, gaining strategic value amid global conflicts and serving as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - Energy companies with resource control and cost advantages are positioned to provide sustainable cash returns and risk mitigation [6] Rare Metals and Strategic Assets - Rare metals like tungsten and antimony are gaining attention due to their high demand in AI infrastructure, aerospace, and defense sectors, with their scarcity providing pricing power amid supply chain disruptions [7] - The investment logic for these rare resources aligns with a "strategic asset" approach, suggesting potential for price revaluation in the medium to long term [7] Investment Strategy and Performance - The investment strategy emphasizes a high equity position in resource-related companies, focusing on mining and manufacturing sectors, with a significant allocation to upstream resources [8] - The performance of the fund, achieving a total return of 83.05% within less than a year, demonstrates the effectiveness of a forward-looking investment approach [9] Research and Risk Management - The investment discipline emphasizes long-term performance and compliance, integrating macroeconomic analysis with industry trends and individual stock fundamentals [11][12] - A systematic research framework is employed to assess macroeconomic conditions, industry phases, and individual stock evaluations, enhancing the sustainability of investment strategies [11][12]

每经AI快讯，1月15日，英国11月制造业产出环比增长2.1%，预期0.5%；11月工业产出环比增长1.1%， 预期0.1%。 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 21,958, with a recent report indicating a price of 22,201 per kilogram, down 0.40% from the opening price of 23,488 per kilogram, and a daily high of 23,688 per kilogram and a low of 21,580 per kilogram, suggesting a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari noted that the overall economy appears resilient, with lower-than-expected tariff transmission effects, while inflation remains high but is moving in the right direction [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity in most regions of the U.S. has been recovering at a "slight to moderate pace" since mid-November, marking an improvement compared to previous reporting periods [2] Group 2 - November retail sales in the U.S. exceeded expectations, reaching $735.9 billion with a growth of 0.6%, following a contraction of 0.1% in October, surpassing the market's anticipated 0.4% increase [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November showed strong performance, with both overall and core indicators increasing by 3% year-on-year [2] - Analysts believe that industrial demand for silver is clearly growing in sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers, while supply is constrained by structural limitations and export controls, indicating a likely tight balance in the market and continued upward momentum for silver prices [2]

Group 1: Overseas Demand - In December 2025, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations[5] - South Korea's export growth rose from 8.0% to 13.3% in December, while Vietnam's export growth improved from 15.2% to 23.8%[6] - China's manufacturing new export orders PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating increased export orders[6] Group 2: Port Container Throughput - December 2025 saw a decline in port container throughput to approximately 25.55 million TEUs, down from 33.53 million TEUs in November[17] - The average weight per container has been increasing from September to December 2025, suggesting a shift in export product structure towards more machinery and less labor-intensive products[19] - The decline in container throughput may mislead market perceptions regarding export performance[17] Group 3: Non-US Market Expansion - China's exports to ASEAN, EU, Russia, India, and the UK have shown both month-on-month and year-on-year increases, countering the high base effect from 2024[23] - The export ratio to the US and Japan has decreased, while the share to ASEAN and Hong Kong has increased, indicating a shift towards non-US markets[24] - The resilience of exports is expected to continue into 2026, potentially becoming a pillar of economic growth[25] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include insufficient growth policy measures, lower-than-expected global economic conditions, and unexpected trade frictions[27]

人民财讯1月15日电，博盈特焊(301468)1月15日在互动平台回复称，公司越南生产基地一期的4条HRSG 已投产，目前处于满产状态。目前，公司已通过部分客户的生产体系认证，并获得相应的美国订单，部 分潜在客户的审厂流程已完成，后续将陆续进入订单谈判环节。 来源：证券时报e公司 ...

作为中国东北地区中心城市之一、重要的工业基地城市，长春在新一轮东北振兴过程中发挥着重要 作用。 顾刚表示，过去五年，该市有效应对经济转型挑战等多重考验，实施一系列利当前、惠长远的重大 举措。特别是"十四五"中期以来实施全面振兴突破三年攻坚行动，推动全市发展态势、整体形象发生积 极深刻变化。 中新网长春1月14日电 (记者 郭佳)长春市第十六届人民代表大会第六次会议14日开幕。长春市市长 顾刚作政府工作报告时介绍，"十四五"长春地区生产总值跨越两个千亿级台阶，经济总量有望突破8000 亿元。 据介绍，"十四五"期间，长春高新技术企业数量实现翻番。新兴产业持续壮大，传统产业加快升 级，发展动能不断增强。五年间，长春经营主体增加40万户，市场活力明显增强。国家自创区等重大开 放平台获批建设，外贸出口额增长2.4倍。 顾刚表示，"十五五"时期，长春高质量发展将实现明显进位。新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业 现代化取得重大进展，制造业规模效益稳步提高，服务业增加值占地区生产总值比重超过60%，经济总 量迈上万亿元台阶。 ...