Core Viewpoint - The latest ADP report indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market at the beginning of 2026, with private sector job growth significantly below expectations [1][4]. Employment Data Summary - In January, the private sector added only 22,000 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 48,000 and down from 37,000 in December [1][4]. - The goods-producing sector saw a net increase of only 1,000 jobs, with construction adding 9,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 8,000 jobs [3]. - The service sector experienced mixed results, with trade/transport/utilities adding 4,000 jobs, financial services increasing by 14,000, education and health services up by 74,000, and leisure and hospitality adding 4,000 jobs [3]. - Conversely, the information sector lost 5,000 jobs, professional/business services decreased by 57,000, and other services fell by 13,000 [3]. - Employment changes by company size showed small businesses (1-49 employees) remained stable, medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) added 41,000 jobs, while large businesses (500+ employees) lost 18,000 jobs [3]. Economic Insights - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson expressed concern over the low growth in hiring, particularly in manufacturing and professional/business services, which have been experiencing job losses since March 2024 [3]. - Despite some signs of stabilization in recent months, the weaker-than-expected job growth in January suggests continued cooling in the labor market [4]. - Wells Fargo's Senior Economist Sarah House noted that the data reflects a stagnant labor market, with no significant improvement or deterioration in hiring trends [4].

（来源：中华工商时报） 转自：中华工商时报 区工商联创建"亲清恳谈会"机制，由区委、区政府主要领导牵头，与企业家面对面，建立"问题、责 任、时限"三张清单，推动诉求闭环处理。该机制已解决包括用地等在内的数十个问题。 区工商联主动寻求机遇，带领商会远赴福建、安徽等科创产业密集、经济发达地区开展对接，系统推动 工商联及所属商会与福州鼓楼区等地友好共建。通过持续的项目互荐、企业互访，为本地企业"走出 去"和"引进来"铺设高效通道。 区工商联组织会员企业赴哈尔滨工业大学等高校学习，组织企业参加"长春先进制造业博览会"，帮助企 业把脉市场脉搏，明确升级方向。为汇聚资源，区工商联借助省、市政企平台势能，组织企业参与各类 招商活动。邀请外国客商走访企业，拓展合作机遇，提升对外合作能级。 区工商联深入开展"万企兴万村"行动，推动制造业企业商会以"企业+合作社+农户"模式打造"香坊小 米"等地域品牌，引导女企业家商会借助电商拓宽助农渠道。 香坊区工商联精准施策、开放赋能，以系列工作亮点探索基层工商联工作的特色路径。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 大类资产月度策略（2026.2） 乍暖还寒试韧性，估值修复入深水 1. 货币-信用"风火轮"：双宽格局持续 信用方面，12 月我国新增社融 22075 亿元，高于万得一致调查值（18153 亿 元）。其中新增人民币贷款 9100 亿元,高于万得一致调查值（6794 亿元）。 广义货币条件指数边际改善，新增社融数据超预期，抵消高基数引发的信用 脉冲回落，金融对实体支撑坚实。当前格局延续"宽货币+宽信用"的双宽 组合，资金面趋紧风险较低，金融条件对宏观与资产表现形成托底。 2. 下一阶段大类资产价格展望 指数开门红，估值修复渐入深水区。1 月 A 股延续强势，中证 500 以 12.12% 领跑，新开户数近 500 万反映资产迁移热度。然而 2 月初受沃什"降息+缩 表"鹰派主张冲击，分母端压力陡增，贵金属剧烈回调，市场流动性边际收 缩。尽管短期拖累指数，但释放流动性有利于缓解对其它板块的吸血效应， 降低长线泡沫破裂风险。当前市场对科创及互联网板块的高资本开支容忍度 降至冰点，业绩验证阈值抬高。1 月 PMI 处于荣枯线下，经济基本面尚不支 持全面牛，市场步入去杠杆与去伪 ...

Core Insights - China is reinforcing its position as a global investment powerhouse by expanding openness and enhancing the level of investment liberalization and facilitation [2][3] - The latest report indicates that the quality of foreign investment utilization in China is steadily improving, with significant contributions to global economic prosperity [3][4] Group 1: Investment Trends - In 2025, over 70,000 new foreign-funded enterprises are expected to be established in China, representing a growth of 19.1%, with foreign capital absorption reaching 747.69 billion yuan, of which high-tech industries account for 32.3% [3] - China's outbound non-financial direct investment is projected to reach 1 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a growth of 1.6%, while the value of newly signed contracts for foreign engineering projects is expected to be 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% [3] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - China's comprehensive advantages in supply chains, markets, and policies have created a favorable investment environment for multinational companies, leading to significant development achievements for foreign enterprises in China [4] - The country's technological innovation capabilities rank among the top globally, with advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence and 5G providing a robust ecosystem for foreign investment [4] Group 3: Outbound Investment - Chinese enterprises are increasingly encouraged to invest abroad, contributing to tax revenue and employment growth in host countries while enhancing local industrialization and infrastructure [5] - The manufacturing sector has shown remarkable performance in outbound direct investment, with an average annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2025, surpassing the overall growth rate of outbound direct investment by 10 percentage points [5] Group 4: Policy Support - The Chinese government is committed to creating a more open investment environment, implementing stable foreign investment policies, and encouraging high-quality outbound investment [8][9] - Measures include reducing the negative list for foreign investment access, promoting reinvestment by foreign enterprises, and ensuring a transparent and predictable institutional environment [8][9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the decline of the U.S. manufacturing sector, contrary to President Trump's promise of a manufacturing boom leading to a "golden age" for the country [1] Group 1: Employment Trends - U.S. federal government data indicates that since the announcement of the "liberation day" tariff plan, manufacturers have been laying off employees every month, exacerbating a trend that has seen over 200,000 jobs disappear since 2023 [1] Group 2: Causes of Decline - Long-term factors contributing to the decline of the manufacturing sector include the offshoring of U.S. manufacturing jobs and the hollowing out of the industry [1] - Tariff policies have led to increased costs for companies sourcing raw materials from overseas, forcing them to raise prices or face supply chain disruptions [1] Group 3: Company-Specific Impacts - Howard Waltz, head of Insteel Industries in North Carolina, stated that the steel tariff policy has made it increasingly difficult to obtain necessary metals from U.S. suppliers, potentially impacting the company's growth due to domestic raw material shortages [1] - NN, a metal parts manufacturer based in Charlotte, North Carolina, has reduced its workforce in the U.S. due to increased costs from import taxes on steel and aluminum, which have compounded pressures from rising gold and silver market prices [1]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网2月4日讯 ，耐普矿机在接受调研者提问时表示，公司在智利和秘鲁的投资，属于制造业投 资、非资源开发的投资。工厂投产后，会带动当地的就业，增加政府税收，降低进口，属于当地政府支 持的行业，整体经营风险较小。 ...

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows structural recovery, with GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, meeting the target set during the "Two Sessions" [12] - Industrial production remains resilient, with industrial added value in December 2025 rising to 5.2% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors outperforming with growth rates of 9.4% and 9.2% respectively [12] - Investment growth has slowed, with fixed asset investment down 3.8% year-on-year, while consumption shows mixed performance, with retail sales growth dropping to 0.9% in December 2025 [12][14] - Exports have rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in December 2025, particularly in high-tech products like automobiles and integrated circuits, which grew by 71.6% and 47.8% respectively [14][15] A-Share Market - In January, the A-share market experienced a "New Year Rally," leading to a spring market trend, with a significant increase in trading volume, averaging over 30 trillion yuan [9][12] - The outlook for February suggests a stable pre-holiday market, with a high likelihood of a "spring market" rally post-holiday, focusing on sectors with clear policy guidance and high earnings certainty [5][9] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market in January saw a continuation of monetary easing, with bond yields declining [5][9] - The outlook for February indicates a focus on structural opportunities within a fluctuating market environment [5][9] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to show a fluctuating pattern, while the Chinese yuan is anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to a lack of significant rebound in the dollar and strong potential settlement forces [5][9] Overseas Markets - The US bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by economic fundamentals and changes in interest rate expectations [5][9] - The US stock market is projected to experience fluctuations, supported by resilient economic data, but scrutiny on technology companies' earnings may increase during the earnings season [5][9] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain strong, buoyed by domestic spring market dynamics and regulatory easing on IPOs [5][9] Commodities - Gold prices are facing adjustment pressure after a rapid increase, with expectations of wide fluctuations [5][9] - Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and increased energy consumption during winter [5][9]

Core Insights - Geoeconomics has evolved from an academic concept to a significant topic in global economics and policy, shifting from cooperation in globalization to competition driven by economic means [2] - The analysis by CICC Research Institute and CICC Research Department explores the implications of geoeconomic competition on macroeconomic policies and frameworks [2] Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Shifts - Since the late 1970s, economic liberalism, centered around neoclassical economics, has dominated, leading to globalization and financialization [3] - The macroeconomic policy framework has focused on controlling inflation, with a combination of inflation targeting, floating exchange rates, and trade and financial liberalization [4] - The rise of financial crises and increasing wealth disparity have prompted reflections on neoclassical economics, leading to a shift towards protectionism and increased financial regulation post-2008 financial crisis [5] Group 2: Geoeconomic Competition and Macroeconomic Policy - Geoeconomic competition emphasizes the importance of economies of scale in international trade and global supply chains, challenging traditional trade theories [6] - Technological advancements have become a core area of competition among nations, necessitating increased government involvement in research and development [7] - The non-neutrality of money may manifest in new forms, affecting economic structures and necessitating responses to supply chain risks and trade protection measures [8] Group 3: Supply Constraints and Global Trade Dynamics - The increase in supply constraints has implications for long-term economic growth, with economies of scale being a key driver of global trade expansion [9] - Geoeconomic competition has led to the use of trade protectionism and technology export restrictions, impacting the efficiency of economies of scale [10] - The competition between the U.S. and China highlights the significance of economic scale, with China as a trade surplus nation and the U.S. focusing on enhancing its manufacturing capacity [11] Group 4: Technological and Economic Shifts - The transition to green energy and the rise of the digital economy are significant trends that promote economies of scale, contrasting with the constraints imposed by geoeconomic competition [12] - The dynamics of technological advancement and innovation are critical in understanding the evolving landscape of geoeconomic competition [13] Group 5: Geoeconomic and Technological Interplay - The emergence of "geoeconomic technology" reflects the growing importance of technology in geoeconomic competition, with nations vying for dominance in strategic technologies [14] - The U.S. and China are engaged in intense competition over high-tech resources, impacting global supply chains and economic structures [15] Group 6: Fiscal Policy and Financialization - The trend of de-financialization is evident in the increasing number of financial sanctions and the rising role of fiscal policy in the global economy [18] - U.S. fiscal deficits have risen significantly, impacting monetary supply and economic demand, with implications for inflation and trade balances [19][20] - The increase in defense spending among nations reflects a shift in fiscal priorities, influencing demand without directly enhancing supply capabilities [21] Group 7: Economic Scale and Global Competition - The competition between large economies emphasizes the importance of absolute economic scale, with smaller economies facing challenges in achieving economies of scale [23] - The future of geoeconomic competition will be primarily centered around the U.S. and China, with implications for manufacturing, digital economy, and monetary finance [24] - China's manufacturing sector benefits from economies of scale, while the U.S. leverages its consumer market to influence global trade dynamics [25] Group 8: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The interplay between supply capabilities and demand dynamics is crucial for understanding the ongoing geoeconomic competition, with both nations needing to address structural weaknesses [27] - Fiscal expansion is necessary for maintaining economic stability and supporting the transition to new growth drivers in the face of geoeconomic challenges [28]

港深两地会争取在河套试行专属的跨境政策措施，让人员、物资、资金、数据等四流在区内便捷流动， 致力成为国际先进科技创新规划试验区，开辟制度与政策创新的试验田。 作为河套地区的天然延伸，新田一带新创科用地可与大湾区内地城市完整的产业供应链相结合。创新科 技及工业局已于去年十一月公布《新田科技城创科产业发展规划概念纲要》，为新田科技城订下清晰的 发展方略。香港将全力推动有关发展，按土地的供应时间表，适时提出阶段性发展方案，比如成立专属 公司邀请私人发展共同参与开发。 智通财经APP获悉，2月4日，在立法会会议就"进一步提速提效建设好北部都会区，推动香港创科产业 更好落地发展"议员议案的发言上，香港创新科技及工业局局长孙东教授表示，香港特区政府积极推动 新型工业化，协助香港制造业利用创新科技升级转型，并扶植具潜力或代表性的创科企业来港发展、落 户或扩展业务，以期建立、巩固并完善相关创科产业链。 他提到，发展北部都会区(北都)与河套深港科技创新合作区(合作区)是特区政府积极对接"十五五"规划 的重要举措。香港特区政府将致力在北都发展"国际创科新城"，打造"南金融、北创科"的新发展格局， 进一步推动香港与其他大湾区城市创 ...

海南产经新观察："全国百强县"澄迈深耕"五大出海场景" 中新网海南澄迈2月4日电 (陈英清)海南省澄迈县县长徐涛4日在澄迈县两会上作政府工作报告时说， 2026年澄迈将深耕出海赛道，拓展"五大出海场景"，擦亮"要出海、来澄迈"城市标签。 "十四五"时期，澄迈地区生产总值从348.36亿元增加到559.92亿元，连续跨越两个百亿级台阶，经济总 量稳居海南省县级行政辖区之首，连续三年入选全国综合实力百强县。 徐涛说，2025年，澄迈推出"五大出海场景"，构建全链条出海服务体系，取得显著成效。 数字文化出海拉开帷幕。海南自贸港数字文化出海产业园、研究院、出海联盟相继揭牌成立，首批10家 企业已完成签约入园。虚幻引擎创新中心建设加快推进。 展望"十五五"，徐涛说，澄迈将聚焦"五大出海"领域，打造"出海场景创新区"，高质量建设"企业出海 的渡口"。2026年是"十五五"开局之年，也是海南自由贸易港全面实施封关运作开局之年，澄迈将深耕 出海赛道，拓展"五大出海场景"，擦亮"要出海、来澄迈"城市标签。 ——扩大"游戏出海"商业化规模。迭代升级游戏出海公共服务平台。推动游戏音频制作基地、海南游戏 直播与产业孵化中心建设。支持 ...