观点：持仓观望，不建议追高 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国债期货日报 2025年7月1日 资金面依然偏紧 source： wind,同花顺,南华研究 T主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 T净基差：主连 T基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 盘面点评： 国债期货开盘后窄幅震荡，盘中启动价格走高，午后先下后上最终长端明显收涨。现券方面日内节奏跟期货 基本一致，早盘盘中和下午收盘前是利率有所回落，结构上，受资金面影响，日内短债弱于长端。公开市场 方面，今日7天期逆回购到期4065亿，央行新做1310亿，净回笼2755亿元 日内消息： 1.中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 行情研判： 日内资金依旧偏紧，尽管从资金价格来看，DR001加权回到1.36%，DR007下行37bp回到1.54%，交易所资 金价格也都明显回落，但盘中经纪商报价隔夜依旧在1.5%以上，早盘资金面情绪指数偏高，指向流动性并没 有完全回归充裕状态。午后随着 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock index continued to rise, with the CSI 300 index closing up 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 20.842 billion yuan. Among the stock index futures, IF decreased in volume, IH and IC increased in volume, and IM decreased in volume. [2] Group 3: Important News - Tariff Announcement: With only 10 days left until the "tariff deadline" on July 9, Trump clearly stated that there is no need to extend the upcoming tariff deadline. He will directly send letters to hundreds of countries to notify them of the tariff rates and will no longer conduct individual trade negotiations. [3] Group 4: Core View - Market Outlook: The stock index continued to rise today, but the trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink. There is a lack of positive information to drive the index up, and the future strength of the RMB exchange rate remains to be seen. The market sentiment is cautious, and the sustainability of this round of the stock index rise is uncertain. If the trading volume continues to shrink and the upward momentum weakens, a short - term adjustment is expected. [4] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Hold and wait for further development [5] Group 6: Futures Market Observation | Futures Type | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.03 | 7.0001 | -0.8991 | 23.8772 | -0.5835 | | IH | 0.08 | 3.2102 | -0.8576 | 8.3173 | -0.2668 | | IC | 0.01 | 6.8686 | -0.2617 | 22.0821 | -0.054 | | IM | -0.36 | 18.1858 | 0.9846 | 32.7974 | 1.0329 | [5] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Index Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.11 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.03 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 146.6015 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | -20.842 | [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 1, 2025 - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0019531) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of asphalt remain resilient. This week, the production was 547,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and the demand was 581,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased significantly, while the social inventory changed little. Affected by the decline in the risk premium of crude oil, the asphalt basis strengthened, and the crack spread also strengthened, still remaining in a high range. Looking forward, the overall supply is in the seasonal resumption of production, but limited by the poor profit of refined oil products and the limited profitability of local refineries, there is little room for significant improvement. From August, the construction conditions in the north and south are good, and the overall construction enters the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 has accelerated, and the funds have been alleviated. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed to a certain extent, and the peak season is still expected [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3,400 - 3,750 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.89%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 52.15% [2] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in asphalt prices, for enterprises with long spot positions, to prevent inventory losses, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3,650 - 3,750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, for those with short spot positions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton [2] Core Contradictions - Supply and demand are resilient. This week, production increased by 20.5% year - on - year, demand increased by 19% year - on - year, and sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased significantly, and social inventory changed little. The basis and crack spread strengthened but remained in a high range. Supply is in seasonal resumption, but limited by refined oil profit and local refinery profitability. Demand will enter the peak season in August, with improved funds and guaranteed project numbers [3] 利多解读 - Not provided in the report 利空解读 - Short - term demand is dragged down by the plum rain season in the south; the easing of the Middle East situation leads to the regression of the war premium of crude oil [5] Price and Basis Crack Spread - The daily and weekly changes in spot prices in different regions (Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, South China) are different. The basis and crack spread of different regions also show different daily and weekly changes [6] Seasonal Charts - Include asphalt 09 contract basis seasonality in different regions (Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, Shandong, North China), asphalt futures month - to - month spreads (06 - 09, 09 - 12) seasonality, and the seasonality of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates [9][14][15] Other Data - Include the total number of combined orders and the total number of warehouse receipts of asphalt [19]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is in a downward channel but the decline has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation. The short - term basis has been repaired. In the medium term, the weak expectation persists due to the concentrated resumption of maintenance and the gradual launch of new production capacity, which will significantly increase the supply - side pressure. Even if there is an increase in demand, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.20%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 5.1% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2400 - 2450 range to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2400) with a 50% ratio in the 30 - 40 range to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2200 - 2250 range to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH509P2200) with a 50% ratio in the 50 - 60 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Short - term contradictions are limited; in the medium - to - long term, there is production capacity launch pressure, and the overall expectation is weak [4]. 3.4利多解读 - The decline in spot prices has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation; the near - end inventory is not high, and there are limited substantial contradictions [5]. 3.5利空解读 - In the medium - to - long term, there is an oversupply pressure. The supply side has a concentrated production capacity launch expectation, and the demand increment is insufficient to support a market reversal, which limits the upside [6]. 3.6 Caustic Soda Futures Prices and Spreads - **Futures Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2410 (up 27 or 1.13% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2358 (up 39 or 1.68%), and the 01 contract was 2354 (up 30 or 1.29%) [7]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread was 52 (down 12 from the previous day), the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (up 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 (up 3) [7]. - **Basis**: The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 66 (down 58 from the previous day), and the 09 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 14 (down 70) [7]. 3.7 Caustic Soda Factory Prices and Market Prices - **32% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the prices of some brands in different regions changed. For example, Shandong Jinling's price was 2344 (down 31.25 or - 1.3% from the previous day), and Shandong Hengtong's was 2563 (down 63 or - 2.4%) [8]. - **50% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: Jinling's price was 2380 (down 60 or - 2.5% from the previous day) [8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices**: Prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 1, 2025, such as 3150 in Shandong, 3311 in North China, etc. [9]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On July 1, 2025, some spreads changed. For example, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 36 (down 28.75 from the previous day), and the spread between 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu and Shandong was 255 (down 103) [9]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Futures Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01, 09 - 01) and basis (09, 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided [10][11][12][13].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/1 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 14.32% | 28.1% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 14.62% | 23.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | | | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | 多 | 期 ...

根据行业调研，上海陆家嘴金融城的期货公司密度堪称"全国之最"，北京金融街的机构交易室彻夜亮 灯，深圳福田区的期货私募数量每年增长30%。但更让人意外的是，杭州、成都等新一线城市的散户交 易量正在迅猛追赶——原来期货市场的"地理密码"早已被改写！ 01 上海 上海期货交易所、上海国际能源交易中心等重要期货交易场所坐落于此，交易品种丰富，涵盖有色金 属、能源化工、贵金属等领域。数据显示，全国40%的期货公司总部设在上海，上期所铜期货单月3000 万手的成交量，与伦敦、纽约形成全球三大定价中心。外滩那些看似低调的写字楼里，可能就藏着掌管 百亿资金的交易团队。上海期货大厦的电梯每天要运送超过2000名交易员，这个数字相当于某些省份全 省的期货从业人数。陆家嘴的星巴克被戏称为"非官方交易厅"，在这里能听到最前沿的跨境套利策 略。 02 杭州 杭州被称为期货界的 "热土"，从这里走出了叶庆均、徐王冠等众多期货大佬。杭州的期货圈藏着两 个"世界级秘密"：一是阿里系员工用期权思维玩转期货套利，二是顶级游资大佬偏爱在西湖边的茶室 谈交易。150家期货机构在此扎堆。永安期货场外期权规模突破1000亿元。杭州期货私募圈的影响力持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and changes in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a mixed outlook for gold prices and related investment vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 1, the gold ETF fund (159937) rose by 0.47% with a transaction volume of 238 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85% [1]. - International spot gold prices have rebounded above $3,300 per ounce, with the latest quote at $3,314.68 per ounce, marking a 0.38% increase [2]. - COMEX gold futures are quoted at $3,327 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The gold market has been under pressure due to easing geopolitical conflicts and rising U.S. stock markets, which have increased risk appetite among investors [3]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade agreements with multiple countries are expected to be completed by September 1, which may influence market sentiment [3]. - Speculation about the potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump could impact monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Analysts suggest a mixed to bullish long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term technical weaknesses and market adjustments [5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [5]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation remains significant, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investments in gold ETFs [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term technical patterns show weakness and pressure, but the daily line has regained the $3300 level. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of this support. The next support is at $3250, and if it breaks, it may further decline to the previous low of $3120. The resistance is in the $3330 - 3350 area. London silver should focus on the support around $35.3, with strong support in the $34.5 - 35 area, and resistances at $36.2 and $36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rebounded after a decline. Among surrounding assets, the US stock market rose, the US Treasury yield declined, the US dollar index dropped, and Bitcoin fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3315 per ounce, up 0.83%; COMEX silver 2509 contract closed at $36.33 per ounce, down 0.11%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 767.58 yuan per gram, down 0.62%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 0.54% [2]. - In terms of trade tariffs, Trump said there was no need to extend the July 9 deadline and would set tariffs for each country, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The EU was willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but sought exemptions for key industries. Canada made concessions and cancelled the digital service tax, and the US and Canada would resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21. South Korea's top priority was to obtain a tariff extension [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 5.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 75.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.8%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 24.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 60.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 13.7% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 952.53 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14826.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1299.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons as of the week ending June 20 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. The US Senate is preparing to vote on the Trump administration's "Great Beauty" bill, aiming to pass it before July 4. On Tuesday at 21:30, central bank governors from major economies will have a panel discussion. On Friday, due to the US Independence Day holiday, COMEX precious metals trading will end at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 767.58 yuan per gram, up 1.18 yuan or 0.15%; SGX gold TD is at 764.15 yuan per gram, up 1.07 yuan or 0.14%; CME gold main contract is at $3315 per ounce, up $28.9 or 0.88%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 30 yuan or 0.34%; SGX silver TD is at 8728 yuan per kilogram, down 20 yuan or 0.23%; CME silver main contract is at $36.33 per ounce, up $0.165 or 0.46%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.43 yuan per gram, up 0.11 yuan or 3.31%; SHFE - TD silver is at 34 yuan per kilogram, down 10 yuan or 91.3%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 91.2469, up 0.3828 or 0.42% [7]. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 18237 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1152.3287 tons, down 0.0042 tons. SHFE gold position is 155821 lots, up 25999 lots or 20.03%; SPDR gold position is 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons or - 0.24%. SHFE silver inventory is 1299.756 tons, up 4.093 tons or 0.32%; CME silver inventory is 15542.2557 tons, up 18.7987 tons or 0.12%; SGX silver inventory is 1357.845 tons, down 21.03 tons or - 1.53%. SHFE silver position is 277702 lots, down 37746 lots or - 11.97%; SLV silver position is 14826.612625 tons, down 39.5722 tons or - 0.27% [16]. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 96.8103, down 0.4513 or - 0.46%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.16, down 0.0043 or - 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44094.77 points, up 275.5 points or 0.63%. WTI crude oil spot is at $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 or - 0.63%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9878 per ton, down $1 or - 0.01%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.24%, down 0.05 or - 1.17%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.95, down 0.05 or - 2.5%. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.52, down 0.04 or - 7.14% [21][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin market. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.18%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished - product inventory and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw - material inventory and worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 268,110 yuan/ton, 268,110 yuan/ton, and 267,880 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,565 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars (- 0.72%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.01, up 0.15 (1.91%) [6]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.06%); 1 tin premium is 600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 14.29%); 40% tin concentrate is 255,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.16%); 60% tin concentrate is 259,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.13%); the price of solder bar (60A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 173,750 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.06%); the price of solder bar (63A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 181,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (1.97%); the price of lead - free solder is 273,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan (1.86%) [10][13]. 3.4 Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,212.76 yuan/ton, down 2,572.25 yuan (17.57%); 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: The total tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,750 tons, up 199 tons (3.04%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,214 tons, up 24 tons (0.57%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,611 tons, up 175 tons (12.19%); the total LME tin inventory is 2,175 tons with no change [17].

南华商品指数：所有板块均下跌，能化板块领跌 王怡琳 2025-07-01 08:10:53 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.21%。板块指数中，所有板块均有所下跌，其中跌 幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，跌幅为-0.5%；跌幅最小的板块是南华有色金属指数，跌幅为-0.05%。 主题指数 中，只有经济作物指数，上涨0.01%，其余主题指数均是下跌，跌幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，跌幅为-0.56%， 跌幅最小的主题指数是石油化工指数，跌幅为-0.08%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是鸡蛋，上 涨0.65%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品种指数是焦煤，跌幅为-2.65%。 > 南华期货 | 股票代码 | 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月30日 南华指数小组 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏 (F03103098) 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 2011 】1290号 棕榈油 −0.55% 0.02% 菜籽油 −0.54% -0.22% -0.22% 論菜籽 −2.07% - D.S1% - 生猪 —0.96% 系材 相 0.51% -0.25% - 在： (1) 文 ...