Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple price trends are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji apples. The recent rise in apple futures prices is mainly due to concerns about the good fruit rate, and the prices of early - harvested Fuji and Gansu Huaniu are higher than last year, setting the tone for the late Fuji opening price [2] - The near - end trading logic focuses on the good fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji, the opening price, and the new late - Fuji price trend. The market's bet on quality issues has led to a continuous rise in the futures market. The far - end contracts are weaker, with an expectation of price decline after a high opening, but the decline may be limited [3][4] - The apple market is currently in an uptrend, but the 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The main factors influencing apple prices are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji. Eastern apples have smaller fruit sizes and may have problems like reverse greening and chicken - claw marks due to rainy weather after bag - removal. Western apples also face similar issues, and their fruit sizes are smaller than usual [2] - The opening prices of Gala and early Fuji are good, with the early - harvested Fuji price 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year and Gansu Huaniu 1 yuan/kg higher [2] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The apple market's upward momentum continues. The 10 - contract reached a new high last week, and the winning positions hold more than 4000 net long positions. The 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, if worried about a high - yield season and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (25% at 8500 - 8600) and sell call options (50% at 20 - 30) to lock in profits and reduce costs [9] - For procurement management, if worried about high purchase prices due to low old - crop inventory and a shortage of good - quality new - crop apples, enterprises can buy apple futures (50% at 8300 - 8400) and sell put options (75% at 50 - 60) to lock in purchase costs [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of September 17, national cold - storage inventory decreased. Steel Union data shows 12.18 tons, a 4.14 - ton decrease from last week, and Zhuochuang data shows 14.79 tons, a 6.02 - ton decrease. Shandong's cold - storage capacity ratio decreased [10] - This week, late Fuji in the east and west entered the bag - removal period. Western bag - removal was postponed by a week, and the progress is similar to the east. Shandong's late Fuji may have problems with reverse greening and coloring due to rainy weather [11] - Western early - harvested Fuji prices are 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year, and most are pre - ordered by merchants. Western late Fuji will be on the market after October 5, with large - scale listing in mid - October [11] - Gansu Huaniu has smaller fruit sizes and a lower commodity rate due to previous high - temperature and drought. The price is 1 yuan/kg higher than last year, but the large amount of fruit stored by farmers may not be favorable for the market [11] - The number of trucks arriving at three major markets in Guangdong decreased slightly due to a typhoon this week. With the approaching of festivals, the number of trucks increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [12] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Focus on the sales and remaining inventory of stored Fuji, as well as the weather, bag - removal, quality, and opening price of late Fuji [17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures prices rose, but the increase in the main contract was small. The total position is at the lowest level in the past 5 years but has increased recently. The winning positions have been increasing continuously. Technically, the main contract shows a fluctuating upward trend [17] 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The apple spread structure shows significant fluctuations in nearby contracts approaching the delivery month. The 10 - contract may be the strongest [19][20] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples in the 24/25 season is 0.3 yuan/kg, affected by the price drop of stored apples. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is yet to be determined [22] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Based on previous bagging data, the 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in national apple production, but the final output may decline compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly. The quality of Gala apples makes people worried about the quality of late Fuji [24][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [2][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices were in a high - level volatile adjustment. As the National Day holiday in China approaches and precious metals have risen significantly previously, it is recommended to reduce long positions. During the holiday, important US non - farm and ISM PMI data will be released. The US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin rebounded, the US stock market fell, and crude oil continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3768.5 per ounce, down 1.24%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.115 per ounce, down 1.11%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 860 yuan per gram, up 1.03%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.83% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 24.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 74.4%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 31.3%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.72 tons to 996.85 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15469.12 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12.8 tons to 1161.8 tons daily; as of the week ending September 19, SGX silver inventory increased by 35.4 tons to 1217 tons weekly [3] 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Mainly focus on the final value of the US second - quarter GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give a speech; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests; at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech [3] 4. Nanhua's Viewpoint - The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. In the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down. London gold closed with a negative candlestick, and London silver closed with a high - level doji, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. London gold has support around 3700 and resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions [4][5] 5. Precious Metal Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [5] 6. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings [13][14] 7. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term international oil and fat supply pattern is disrupted by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil, and the strong uncertainty of US energy policy. The oil and fat market is mainly in shock adjustment. However, the policy is only valid until the end of October. With signs of production reduction in Malaysian palm oil and uncertain Sino - US and Sino - Canadian policies, there is an expectation of tight supply of domestic oils and fats from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound in the far - month market. The short - term disk may maintain a weak shock. Strategies should be based on a shock mindset, not chasing short positions. Opportunities for P1 - 5 and OI1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered, as well as opportunities for the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil to widen [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content **Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies** - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8400, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in 3 years; for rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10300, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in 3 years; for palm oil, it is 8900 - 9500, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in 3 years [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders with high oil and fat inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 8300 - 8400 [2]. - **Refineries with low procurement inventory**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) at present, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8000 - 8100 [2]. - **Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices**: They can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their situation, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8200 - 8300 [2]. **Market Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The arrival of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season in China may boost downstream stocking [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - On September 23, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1062.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1092.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars; the import cost was 9314.23 yuan, down 191.26 yuan, hitting a new low in nearly one and a half months. The import profit was - 454.23 yuan/ton, down 208.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, with this week's crushing volume expected to be around 2.4 million tons [7]. - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.227 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from 1.203 million tons in the same period last week [7]. - To suppress the risk of peso depreciation, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on major agricultural products from Monday until October 31 or until sales reach 7 billion US dollars, including 26% for soybeans, 24% for soybean oil and soybean meal, and 9.5% for corn and wheat [7]. **Market Price Data** - **Palm Oil**: - Palm oil 01 contract price is 9054 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; palm oil 05 contract price is 8856 yuan/ton, down 3.26%; palm oil 09 contract price is 8480 yuan/ton, down 3.66%. The BMD palm oil main contract price is 4350 ringgit/ton, up 0.16%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8970 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis is - 194 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [8][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: - Soybean oil 01 contract price is 8086 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 05 contract price is 7848 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 09 contract price is 7790 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract price is 49.63 cents/pound, down 1.9%. The price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8150 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [15]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Rapeseed oil 01 contract price is 9996 yuan/ton, down 147 yuan; rapeseed oil 05 contract price is 9467 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; rapeseed oil 09 contract price is 9400 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract price is 616.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar. The price of rapeseed oil in East China is 10050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene and styrene are still weak, with low valuations but high inventories, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. In the short term, they mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil and are expected to move in a range. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for pure benzene is 5600 - 6200, and for styrene is 6800 - 7400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile in 3 years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can short styrene futures (EB2511, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 7000 - 7100) and sell call options (EB2511C7100, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 70 - 90) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 6800 - 6850) and sell put options (EB2511P6800, 75% hedging ratio, entry range 120 - 150) [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Supply**: In the pure benzene market, two sets of devices in East China postponed their maintenance plans, two long - shut small pure benzene devices in Shandong plan to resume production, and there are import transactions from Europe to China, so the supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. For styrene, two new large - scale devices had short - term shutdowns, and the supply continued to tighten in September but is expected to increase monthly after September [4]. - **Demand**: Downstream production and maintenance coexist in the pure benzene market, and the terminal is likely to have an off - peak season this year, so the pattern of inventory accumulation is difficult to change. The terminal demand for styrene has limited growth, and the pick - up is average [4]. 3.3利多 and利空解读 - **利多 Factors**: As of September 22, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 10.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.15%. Pre - holiday stocking led to destocking of pure benzene ports. In September, two sets of 600,000 - ton styrene devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical were under maintenance, and the supply of styrene continued to tighten [5]. - **利空 Factors**: It is heard that there are import transactions from Europe to China in November and December, and the import volume of pure benzene in the fourth quarter is expected to return to a high level. The maintenance plans of some factories' devices in East China were postponed, and two long - shut pure benzene devices in Shandong plan to resume production in mid - October. Two large - scale styrene devices in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [6][9]. 3.4 Basis and Spread Changes - **Basis Changes**: - **Pure Benzene**: The basis of East China - BZ03 on September 23 was - 30, up 36 from the previous day; the basis of East China - BZ04 was 10, up 41 from the previous day [10]. - **Styrene**: The basis of East China - EB09 on September 23 was 81, down 100 from the previous day; the basis of East China - EB10 was 34, down 34 from the previous day [10]. - **Spread Changes**: The spreads of pure benzene and styrene in various periods generally showed a downward trend, such as the spot spread of pure benzene decreased by 35 yuan/ton from September 22 to September 23 [11]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Price - **Pure Benzene**: The prices of pure benzene in various markets and futures contracts generally declined on September 23 compared with the previous day. For example, the price of BZ2603 decreased by 51 yuan/ton, and the price of the pure benzene East China market decreased by 15 yuan/ton [12]. - **Styrene**: The prices of styrene in various regions and futures contracts also declined. For example, the price of EB2510 decreased by 76 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Related Products**: The prices and profits of related products such as caprolactam, phenol, and aniline also changed to varying degrees [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - New - season supply pressure leads to a decline in futures prices, and many deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have lowered the purchase price of new grain; the overall demand for corn is stable, and the import pressure is limited; the supply - demand structure is turning loose, and the main task in the fourth quarter is to digest the pressure of new grain [1] - There are both positive and negative factors in the corn market. Positive factors include a slight rebound in spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai, low - volume imports in August, and successful corn procurement by the Chengdu branch of Sinograin. Negative factors are the new - season harvest causing supply pressure and weakened market sentiment due to price cuts by deep - processing enterprises [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - From September 19 to September 22, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, corn 11 dropped from 2168 to 2158 (-0.46%), and corn starch 11 dropped from 2463 to 2447 (-0.65%). The wheat average price rose slightly by 0.04% [2] Positive Factors - Corn spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai have slightly rebounded [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, with less substitution pressure [3] - On the 22nd, the Chengdu branch of Sinograin conducted a corn bidding procurement of 4100 tons, all of which were successfully transacted, and there were no sales sessions [3] Negative Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus exerts pressure on prices [3] - Many deep - processing enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new grain, further weakening market sentiment [3] Spot Prices and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin) remained unchanged on the day, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract increased by 21. Corn starch spot prices in different regions (such as Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) also remained unchanged, and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract increased by 42 [11] US Corn Prices and Import Profits - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract dropped by 0.59% to 421.75. The import profit of US Gulf is 306.56 yuan/ton, and that of US West is 448.76 yuan/ton [24]

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] Key Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1503.00, with a weekly increase of 102.00 and an annual increase of 7.36% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1020.00, with a daily increase of 11.00, a weekly increase of 70.00, a monthly increase of 72.00, and an annual decrease of 10.53% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1350.00, with a monthly decrease of 30.00 and an annual decrease of 18.18% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1500.00, with a weekly increase of 80.00, a monthly increase of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 10.71% [2] Future Prices - The latest price of Futures 05 is 1323.00, with a daily increase of 10.50, a monthly increase of 79.00, and an annual increase of 4.46% [2] - The latest price of Futures 09 is 1389.50, with a daily increase of 9.00, a weekly increase of 18.00, a monthly increase of 326.50, and an annual increase of 6.23% [2] - The latest price of Futures 01 is 1229.00, with a daily increase of 13.00, a monthly increase of 30.50, and an annual decrease of 2.54% [2] Inventory Data - The total inventory is 3372.99, with a weekly increase of 56.61, a monthly decrease of 100.63, and an annual decrease of 10.92% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 232.79, with a weekly decrease of 21.73, a monthly decrease of 42.85, and an annual decrease of 15.02% [2] - The port inventory is 271.11, with a weekly decrease of 4.38, a monthly increase of 15.62, and an annual decrease of 34.53% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 793.73, with a weekly decrease of 2.03, a monthly decrease of 12.07, and an annual increase of 10.49% [2] - The coking coking coal inventory is 883.54, with a weekly decrease of 36.51, a monthly decrease of 93.34, and an annual increase of 4.31% [2] Other Data - The coking capacity utilization rate is 75.87, with a monthly increase of 1.45 and an annual increase of 9.88% [2] - The coking coke inventory is 86.03, with a monthly decrease of 0.14 and an annual decrease of 0.06% [2] - The 05 basis is -23.34, with a daily increase of 5.59, a weekly increase of 92.95, and an annual decrease of 217.42 [2] - The 09 basis is -89.84, with a daily increase of 7.09, a weekly increase of 73.95, and an annual decrease of 1.59 [2] - The 01 basis is 70.66, with a daily increase of 3.09, a weekly increase of 91.45, and an annual decrease of 0.65 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -66.50, with a daily increase of 1.50, a weekly decrease of 19.00, a monthly decrease of 247.50, and an annual increase of 0.60 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 160.50, with a daily decrease of 4.00, a weekly increase of 17.50, a monthly increase of 296.00, and an annual increase of 2.41 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is -94.00, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 48.50, and an annual increase of 16.09 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures is applying for the issuance of overseas listed shares (H-shares) and plans to list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The company has received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding the filing for overseas issuance and listing [1] - The filing notice includes plans to issue no more than 124 million overseas listed ordinary shares [1] - The company must complete the overseas issuance and listing within 12 months, or it will need to update its filing materials [1] Group 2: Regulatory Information - The filing notice only confirms the filing information and does not guarantee investment value or returns [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke should not be short - allocated among the black series. Although the market participants' expectations for the future have gradually improved and the willingness to hold goods has increased compared to the first half of the year, the high total supply pressure of steel and high inventory need time to digest, which will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. A substantial favorable policy or an unexpected decline in coal mine开工率 is required to break through the previous high. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - allocation variety in the black series. The coke futures price is at a premium of 1 - 2 rounds compared to the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities under low basis, while arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 1200 - 1350, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 44.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 84.70% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1650 - 1850, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 33.04%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 71.11% [3]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, the spot supply and demand tend to be loose, and coke enterprises are worried about the decline in future sales prices, they can short the J2601 contract of coke. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1780, 1830), 50% at (1830 - 1880), and 25% at (1200, 1250) [3]. - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to the repeated macro - sentiment, the seasonal low开工率 of coking coal mines, and factors such as over - production inspection and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter disturbing the coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1150, 1200) and 50% at (1200, 1250) [3]. 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 6931 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7721 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 100 hands, coke remained unchanged, ferrosilicon decreased by 129 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 320 pieces. Compared with the previous week, the inventory of rebar increased by 9904 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 22213 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 hands, coking coal decreased by 400 hands, coke increased by 30 hands, ferrosilicon increased by 1163 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 764 pieces [4]. 3.4 Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Downstream seasonal restocking before the National Day has alleviated the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the pithead has a strong price - support sentiment. The difficulty of the third - round price cut for coke has increased, and some coke enterprises have attempted to raise prices. After the second - round price cut was implemented, the spot profit of steel improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - cut - throat competition" is the focus of market trading in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, which limits the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the coking coal and coke futures prices, including the cost of warehouse receipts, basis, inter - month spreads, coking profit, and various ratios (such as the ratio of coking coal to power coal, the ratio of iron ore to coke, etc.) on September 19, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot prices of coking coal and coke on September 19, 2025, including the ex - factory prices of domestic coking coal, the self - pick - up prices at ports, the CFR prices of imported coking coal, the ex - factory prices and export prices of coke, and the corresponding profit data (such as coking profit, import profit of coking coal, and export profit of coke), along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10].

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