1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase PVC export costs, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. There is certain negative sentiment in the short - term, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For the 2605 contract, the reference range is 4700 - 4900, and investors can consider the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC contracts is stable and higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread is also stable compared to the previous period and higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, with expectations stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread is stable compared to the previous period and lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounds slightly compared to the previous period but is weaker year - on - year [19]. 3.2 Supply End - In 2025, the new PVC production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity is planned, and the expansion of PVC production capacity is coming to an end. Last week, PVC output was 487,900 tons, a 0.83% increase from the previous week and a 4.03% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the increased load of some devices [25]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC is 20.25 million tons, accounting for about 69.8%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week and the same as the same period last year [28]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC is 8.77 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. Last week, the output was 144,500 tons, a 0.82% decrease from the previous week and a 14.96% increase year - on - year [32]. - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.67%, a 1.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.33 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 124,500 tons [36]. - Last week, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.71%, a 0.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.41 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.56%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.12 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period [39]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 202,100 tons, a 1.46% increase year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 17.63 million tons, a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Demand End - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.901 million tons, a 0.99% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC production and sales rate was 186%, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 50 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [49]. - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of downstream PVC products remained at a low level. This is mainly due to the slowdown of construction in winter, the suspension of construction sites in the north, the entry of municipal and infrastructure project demand into the seasonal off - season, and the decrease in demand for pipes due to the sluggish real estate market [53]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations were India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November, and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [61]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year. The main destinations were Europe and the United States. Affected by trade frictions and weak external demand, the export of products continued to shrink [63]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 1.1141 million tons, a 3.47% increase from the previous week and a 44.71% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 328,200 tons, a 6.14% increase from the previous week and a 27.36% increase year - on - year. Both social and enterprise inventories increased [69][76]. 3.5 Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke was stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide rebounded slightly compared to the previous period, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,400 yuan/ton [80]. - Last week, the price of ethylene was weakly stable and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years [84]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly compared to the previous period and was at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine first increased and then decreased, and was higher year - on - year [88]. - Last week, the loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC production decreased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC also decreased, and the year - on - year loss decreased [91]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased year - on - year [95].

截至2026年1月9日收盘，聚石化学（688669）报收于27.39元，较上周的23.24元上涨17.86%。本周，聚 石化学1月9日盘中最高价报27.49元。1月6日盘中最低价报22.81元。聚石化学当前最新总市值33.23亿 元，在塑料板块市值排名58/72，在两市A股市值排名4418/5182。 关于收到《行政处罚事先告知书》的公告 广东聚石化学股份有限公司于2026年1月9日收到中国证监会广东监管局下发的《行政处罚事先告知 书》，因公司涉嫌通过虚假贸易业务虚增收入、成本和利润，导致2023年半年度报告存在虚假记载。公 司拟被处以警告并罚款240万元，相关责任人陈钢、刘鹏辉、伍洋、徐建军也被处以警告及相应罚款。 公司已对相关财务数据进行调整，目前经营正常，未触及退市或其他风险警示情形。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 公司公告汇总：因虚假贸易虚增收入，聚石化学收证监会《行政处罚事先告知书》 公司公告汇总：周侃减持37,000股，伍洋未实施减持，减持计划期满结束 公司公告汇总 董事、高级管理人员减持股份结果公告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the PVC industry are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a moderately low - level, the supply reduction is small and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, while the export also faces off - season pressure. In the short term, the expected electricity price supports PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, before substantial industry production cuts, the main strategy is to short on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali continues to recover, and the profit of ethylene - based production rises, with the current valuation moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, up 1.4% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 79.6%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Supply load increased slightly last week and is expected to rise further next week. The overall load in January is expected to remain high, with small production cuts and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: Export resistance to India has decreased, but there is off - season pressure. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, down 0.2% month - on - month; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged month - on - month; the profile load is 30.2%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 44%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 90.9 tons, up 9.4 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, factory inventory was 32.8 tons, up 1.9 tons month - on - month; social inventory was 111.4 tons, up 3.7 tons month - on - month; total inventory was 144.2 tons, up 5.6 tons month - on - month; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. With strong supply and weak demand, both exports and domestic demand are in the off - season, and it is difficult to digest the high production. PVC is expected to accumulate inventory again with the arrival of the off - season [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 price difference, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [15][20][22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The report shows various charts about PVC inventory and profit, such as factory inventory, social inventory, combined factory and social inventory, warehouse receipts, and the profits of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [28][30][37]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows a rebound in calcium carbide. The report provides charts of the prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda self - pick - up price in Shandong, Shandong market price of liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [43][44][51]. 3.5 Supply Side The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [55][59][64]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable, gradually entering the off - season. The report provides charts of the operating rates of PVC downstream industries such as pipes, films, and profiles, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [70][71]. - **Export Demand**: Exports continued to decline in November. The report provides charts of PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [73][74][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, and the United States will take over Venezuela's oil exports. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side is expected to undergo spring maintenance and production cuts. According to the production plan, the LL2605 contract faces no new capacity pressure. The alleviation of supply - side pressure may contribute to the continuous backwardation of polyolefin prices [15][17][18]. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is 6300 - 6600; for polypropylene (PP2605), it is 6200 - 6500. The recommended strategy is to go long on LL2605 - LL2609 (a bull - spread strategy) [17]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, and the United States will take over Venezuela's oil exports. In terms of valuation, polyethylene's weekly increase shows the order of futures > spot > cost, while for polypropylene, it is futures > cost > spot [15]. - **Cost Side**: Last week, WTI crude oil dropped by - 3.38%, Brent crude oil by - 4.72%, coal price rose by 3.43%, methanol by 3.94%, ethylene by - 0.89%, propylene by 1.40%, and propane by 1.87%. The cost side still provides support [15]. - **Supply Side**: PE capacity utilization rate is 83.39%, a 1.24% week - on - week increase, a - 3.17% year - on - year decrease, and an - 8.36% decrease compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 73.85%, a - 3.97% week - on - week decrease, a - 7.22% year - on - year decrease, and a - 17.27% decrease compared to the five - year average. With the approaching spring maintenance and low profits in each process, there is an expectation of significant production cuts [15]. - **Import and Export**: In November, domestic PE imports were 1.0622 million tons, a 5.04% month - on - month increase and a - 9.99% year - on - year decrease. PP imports were 179,300 tons, a 5.97% month - on - month increase and a - 8.74% year - on - year decrease. Import profits have declined, and the supply of PE from North America has decreased, reducing the pressure on the import side. In November, PE exports were 85,800 tons, a 3.07% month - on - month increase and a 38.74% year - on - year increase. PP exports were 224,100 tons, an 8.54% month - on - month increase and a 36.59% year - on - year increase [15]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40.80%, a - 0.85% week - on - week decrease and a 10.75% year - on - year increase. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.76%, a - 0.90% week - on - week decrease and a - 2.13% year - on - year decrease. With the arrival of the seasonal off - season, there are no bright spots in the downstream operation of polyolefins [16]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 395,400 tons, a 6.66% week - on - week inventory build - up and a 16.12% increase compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 29,300 tons, a 6.21% week - on - week inventory build - up. PP production enterprise inventory is 467,700 tons, a - 4.69% week - on - week inventory drawdown and a 13.24% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 204,700 tons, a 15.52% week - on - week inventory build - up; PP port inventory is 71,100 tons, a 7.24% week - on - week inventory build - up. Middle - stream traders have started to stock up [16]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of polyethylene and polypropylene, including term structure, prices, trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads, to show the market trends and price relationships of LLDPE and PP [32][48][51]. 3.3 Cost Side - The methanol - based production cost has strengthened. The report also presents various cost - related price charts, such as WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, and propane prices, to analyze the cost factors affecting polyolefins [77][80][82]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PE production is 80% oil - based, 12% light - hydrocarbon - based, 5% coal - based, 2% methanol - based, and 1% purchased ethylene [137]. - **Production Plan**: In 2026, there are multiple domestic polyethylene production projects planned, with a total of 5.2 million tons of un - commissioned capacity [142]. - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: The capacity utilization rate and output of PE are presented through charts, showing their trends over time [143][148]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: Traders are actively stocking up on PE. The report shows various inventory data, including production enterprise inventory, two - oil enterprise inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, and trader inventory [163][164][165]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume and profit of PE are analyzed. In November, PE imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [15][169]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand for LLDPE is mainly for packaging films (51%), followed by hollow products, pipes, injection - molded products, agricultural films, etc. [174]. - **Downstream Operating Rate and Inventory**: The report shows the downstream total operating rate, packaging film available days, agricultural film order days, and raw material inventory of PE [182][184][186]. 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PP production is 53% oil - based, 25% PDH - based, 18% coal - based, 2% methanol - based, and 2% purchased propylene [192]. - **Production Plan**: In 2026, there are multiple domestic polypropylene production projects planned, with a total of 4.37 million tons of un - commissioned capacity [198]. - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: The capacity utilization rate and output of PP are presented through charts, showing their trends over time [199][201]. 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: The report shows various inventory data of PP, including production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, PDH - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory [208][211][215]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume and profit of PP are analyzed. In November, PP imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [15][222][227]. 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand for PP is mainly for拉丝 products (34%), followed by high - and low - melt copolymers, injection - molded products, BOPP, etc. [232]. - **Downstream Operating Rate and Inventory**: The report shows the downstream total operating rate, injection - molding operating rate, pipe operating rate, and plastic - weaving operating rate of PP, as well as the raw material and finished - product inventory of plastic - weaving and BOPP [238][242][247].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 9th, the change in maintenance devices was small. The plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21% after the New Year's Day. The agricultural film was gradually out of the peak season, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The New Year's Day inventory accumulation was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited. It was expected that the upward space of plastic in the near future was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 9th, the plastic operating rate was around 87%. After the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21%. The agricultural film was out of the peak season, and its orders continued to decline, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, 700,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) were put into production. It was expected that the downstream operating rate would decline. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited, and the upward space was limited. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,602 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,685 yuan/ton, and closed at 6,674 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, up 0.17%. The position decreased by 14,010 lots to 491,289 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with a price range of - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,500 - 6,770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,650 - 9,110 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,750 - 8,340 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 9th, the change in maintenance devices was small. The plastic operating rate was around 87%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21%. The agricultural film was gradually out of the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The New Year's Day inventory accumulation was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].

Market Performance - The plastic sector increased by 2.62% on January 9, with Jinfa Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Top Gainers in Plastic Sector - Jinfa Technology (600143) closed at 20.92, up 9.99% with a trading volume of 2.88 million shares [1] - Daon Shares (002838) also rose by 9.99% to 27.31, with a trading volume of 123,400 shares [1] - Kent Shares (301591) increased by 9.84% to 46.00, with a trading volume of 72,100 shares [1] - Other notable gainers include Shangwei New Materials (688585) up 8.75% and Meilian New Materials (300586) up 5.14% [1] Market Trends and Capital Flow - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 827 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.172 billion yuan [2] - The top stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors include Jinfa Technology and Meilian New Materials [3] Capital Flow Analysis - Jinfa Technology had a net inflow of 1.663 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 963 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Daon Shares saw a net inflow of 63.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 33.22 million yuan [3] - Meilian New Materials had a net inflow of 60.29 million yuan from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow from retail investors [3]

2026 年 1 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明 国 泰 君 安 期 货 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6628 | -0.21% | 657423 | -379 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -128 | | -162 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -37 | | -45 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6500 | | 6480 | | | | 华东 | 6560 | | 6550 | | | | 华南 | 6550 | | 6550 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货涨势有所放缓，前期盘面反弹，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期矛盾不大，库存向中游转移, 仓单暂停去化，今日成交氛围有所转淡。外盘 ...

Core Viewpoint - PEEK (Polyether Ether Ketone) is a high-performance engineering plastic with extensive applications in various industries, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors such as medical, aerospace, humanoid robotics, and new energy vehicles [4][5][6]. Group 1: PEEK Overview - PEEK is a type of polyaryletherketone, known for its excellent physical and chemical properties, including a melting point of 343°C and tensile strength of 100 MPa [5]. - PEEK's unique properties make it suitable for applications in electronics, aerospace, automotive, energy, and medical fields [5]. Group 2: PEEK in Medical Health - PEEK has been used in medical applications since 1999, recognized for its biocompatibility and mechanical strength, particularly in orthopedic implants [6]. - By 2027, the demand for cranial repair surgeries in China is projected to reach 96,700 cases, with PEEK products expected to penetrate 70% of this market, translating to a demand of approximately 47.89 tons of PEEK material [7]. Group 3: PEEK in Aerospace - PEEK and its carbon fiber reinforced composites (CF/PEEK) are crucial in aerospace, replacing metals in aircraft components to reduce weight significantly [8]. - The use of CF/PEEK in aircraft structures could lead to a market size of approximately 12.619 billion yuan from 2022 to 2041, with an annual usage of about 6,309.68 tons [9]. Group 4: PEEK in Humanoid Robotics - The humanoid robotics market is expected to grow significantly, with PEEK's lightweight and high-strength properties making it an ideal material for various robotic components [10]. - PEEK's density of approximately 1.3 g/cm³ positions it as a superior lightweight material compared to carbon fiber, enhancing the performance of humanoid robots [10]. Group 5: PEEK in New Energy Vehicles - PEEK is increasingly used in 800V electric motor applications in new energy vehicles, addressing the challenges of range anxiety and charging efficiency [11]. - By 2027, the demand for PEEK in 800V motor applications is expected to reach 2,630.12 tons, corresponding to a market size of approximately 88.6 million yuan [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 8, new maintenance devices were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The overall PE downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the improvement in the plastic supply - demand pattern is limited, so the recent upward space for plastics is expected to be limited. Due to new production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New maintenance devices were added on January 8, and the plastic operating rate decreased to around 87%. As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The new year's inventory accumulation was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. Crude oil prices are still weak. There are new plastic production capacities coming on - stream, the downstream operating rate is expected to decline, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the plastic supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6605 yuan/ton, the highest was 6720 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6628 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.05%. The position volume decreased by 379 lots to 505,299 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations between - 100 and + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6670 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8550 - 9010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6700 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - On January 8, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1][4]. 3.3.2 Demand - As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. 3.3.3 Inventory - On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 57.5 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The new year's inventory accumulation was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1][4]. 3.3.4 Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to $60/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $745/ton [4].

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a rise of 1.14% on January 8, with Wankai New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed significant price increases, with Wankai New Materials up 15.16% to 20.36, and Lekai Film up 10.03% to 12.72 [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 986 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.026 billion yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors include Shenjian Co. with a net inflow of 1.31 billion yuan [3] - The overall trading volume for the plastic sector was substantial, with Wankai New Materials achieving a transaction amount of 1.098 billion yuan [1]