Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: Affected by weak US employment data, the ADP employment in August only increased by 54,000, strengthening the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September. Multiple factors jointly support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment, independence issues, and bond - market risks. Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to relatively tight supply and the stimulus of US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [17]. - **Aluminum**: In the short term, aluminum fluctuates with an upward bias, but there is pressure above. To break through the 21,000 pressure level, the peak - season expectations need to be fulfilled, demand should improve significantly, and inventory should start to decline. Alumina has insufficient upward drive in the short term, and its price is approaching the 2,880 yuan cost line. Cast aluminum alloy is more resilient due to cost support [37][38][39]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, zinc shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak domestically. Observe macro and consumption factors, and it will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Nickel**: Currently, the nickel ore price has a slight decline, other nickel products are basically stable, and the MHP benchmark price has an upward trend. Stainless - steel inventory has decreased for several weeks, and demand sentiment has improved in the peak season. Sulfuric - nickel prices are stable. Pay continuous attention to the impact of interest - rate cut expectations and the US dollar trend [83]. - **Tin**: In the short term, tin prices have an upward driving force due to tight supply, despite certain demand pressure [98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. If the conversion of orders to actual transactions is less than expected, the market may remain weakly oscillating; if the receiving demand is gradually released, prices may be supported [110]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: In the short term, industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September. In the medium - to - long term, they have an upward expectation. Polysilicon is in a "wide - range oscillation" state, and short - term price fluctuations due to news stimuli should be vigilant [119]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Weak US employment data, the signing of the US - Japan trade agreement, investigations into the Fed's independence, and the expansion of the US trade deficit support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Market Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, inventory, and long - term fund positions are presented [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose due to multiple factors but fell on Wednesday. In the short term, they may remain strong due to supply and demand factors [17]. - **Market Data**: Include copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures' main contract is 80,140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.46% [18][23][33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term, while alumina prices are under pressure. Cast aluminum alloy is relatively resilient [37][38][39]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, inventory, and basis [40][54][63]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: In the short term, zinc prices show an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern and will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Market Data**: Include zinc futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract is 22,155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [69][74][79]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel ore prices decline slightly, other nickel products are stable, and the MHP benchmark price rises. Stainless - steel demand improves in the peak season, and sulfuric - nickel prices are stable [83]. - **Market Data**: Present data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins [84][93]. Tin - **Price Driving Force**: Tin prices are driven up by tight supply in the short term [98]. - **Market Data**: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai tin futures' main contract is 272,460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [99][104][106]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. The future trend depends on downstream receiving demand [110]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory, and price differences [111][113][117]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September and have an upward expectation in the medium - to - long term. Polysilicon remains in a "wide - range oscillation" state [119]. - **Market Data**: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, inventory, and production data [120][121][140].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Company Overview - Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. is located at No. 31, Xinhua Road, Gongyi City, Henan Province, established on January 28, 1997, and listed on June 26, 2002 [2] - The company's main business includes coal mining, thermal power generation, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [2] - The revenue composition is as follows: aluminum processing 62.62%, electrolytic aluminum 31.55%, coal 2.60%, electricity 2.38%, others 0.44%, steam 0.33%, and trade 0.08% [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.82% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 707 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed 334 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 5, the stock price of Zhongfu Industrial increased by 2.19% to 5.13 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 20.561 billion yuan [1] - The stock has risen 81.27% year-to-date, with a recent decline of 5.00% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the latest appearance on June 27, where it recorded a net buy of -154 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, the number of shareholders was 77,100, an increase of 11.65% from the previous period [2] - The average circulating shares per person decreased by 10.43% to 51,964 shares [2] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the ninth largest circulating shareholder, holding 38.7902 million shares as a new shareholder [3]

日期 2025 年 9 月 5 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 行业 铝日报 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 4 日沪铝继续下跌，主力报收 20605，环比上日下跌 0.77%%，09-10 贴水转为 升水 15，远月尚呈现 contango 结构，进口窗口保持关闭，现货进口亏损-1320 元/吨。期价下跌带动市场活跃度重新回归，下游刚需采买量增长，日内现货升贴 水均有所回暖。铸铝合金跟随沪铝节奏波动，AD-AL 负价差报-385，传统旺季将 至叠加废铝行业的税收返还终止政策导致行业成本抬升，多重因素共振下铸铝合 金走势有望转强，多 A ...

Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. is located at 9th Floor, ProLogis Building, No. 2389 Zhangyang Road, Pudong New District, Shanghai, established on November 3, 1997, and listed on December 31, 2010 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing products and materials, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.084 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.51% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 6.562 billion yuan, with 3.463 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 5, Tianshan Aluminum's stock price increased by 2.04%, reaching 10.52 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 48.938 billion yuan [1] - The stock has risen 37.12% year-to-date, with a 4.26% increase over the last five trading days, 8.68% over the last twenty days, and 26.29% over the last sixty days [1] - The number of shareholders as of June 30 was 49,700, an increase of 4.44% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 4.25% to 83,175 shares [2] Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 113 million shares, a decrease of 10.084 million shares from the previous period [3] - The main business revenue composition includes 65.26% from the sale of self-produced aluminum ingots, 24.20% from alumina sales, 6.89% from aluminum foil and aluminum foil raw materials, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum, and 1.55% from other sources [1] Market Position - Tianshan Aluminum is classified under the Shenwan industry as non-ferrous metals - industrial metals - aluminum, and is associated with concepts such as battery foil, non-ferrous aluminum, lithium batteries, social security heavy positions, and Xinjiang revitalization [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates a positive outlook for the electrolytic aluminum sector in the second half of the year, driven by low valuations and expectations of profit expansion [1] Valuation and Profitability - The current valuation of the electrolytic aluminum sector is considered low [1] - The supply-demand dynamics are tight, supporting an upward trend in aluminum prices, while the supply of alumina is relatively loose [1] - The average profit in the electrolytic aluminum segment is expected to expand to over 4,500 yuan per ton in the second half of the year [1] Market Outlook - With expectations of both valuation and profitability improvements, the sector's stock performance is anticipated to be strong in the latter half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price recently, with a current market capitalization of 42.175 billion yuan, while its year-to-date stock price has increased by 14.31% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 20.428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion yuan [2] Shareholder Information - As of August 29, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shenhuo Co., Ltd. was 65,400, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous period, with an average of 34,367 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.14% [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 9.422 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.843 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth largest circulating shareholder, holding 39.0549 million shares, a decrease of 19.7381 million shares from the previous period, while Southern CSI 500 ETF was a new sixth largest shareholder with 23.3743 million shares [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Precious Metals and Non - ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report - Authors: Xu Liang, Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September (with a probability of nearly 90%), geopolitical tensions, and Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor have triggered a crisis of confidence in US dollar assets, boosting safe - haven demand. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and the de - dollarization trend provide long - term support for gold prices. The market is focused on tomorrow's US non - farm payroll data for guidance on the rate - cut path [3] Specific Data and Information - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related charts are presented, including price trends, COMEX gold prices, and gold - silver ratios [4] - Gold long - term fund holdings and silver long - term fund holdings are also shown [11][12] - SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences are provided [6][13] Group 3: Copper Core View - Overseas copper mine disruptions have led to a decline in domestic spot processing fees. Tight resources are reflected in the decline of LME copper inventory and high domestic spot premiums. The Yangshan copper premium has climbed to $55/ton, indicating strong import demand. The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in China has boosted refined copper consumption expectations. Although downstream restocking has promoted transactions, traders' high - price aversion has suppressed trading activity [16] Specific Data and Information - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.56% [17][22] - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, and refined - scrap price differences are also presented [27][31] - Copper warehouse receipts and inventory data, such as SHFE copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory, are given [32][34] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, and domestic policies are also gradually taking effect, which is beneficial to aluminum prices. Although there are some production and transportation controls during the September parade, the demand in the peak season shows signs of recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but it needs to meet the peak - season expectations to break through the 21,000 resistance level [36] - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite may face greater volatility in the future. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with high domestic operating capacity and expected oversupply in the second half of the year. Although some alumina plants in Henan have received environmental protection production - limit notices, the impact is mainly short - term [37] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax rebates for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in production capacity utilization, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [38] Specific Data and Information - Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.05% [39] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and inventory data, such as warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are presented [43][55] Group 5: Zinc Core View - The supply of zinc is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore price has an advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large. Overseas zinc ore supply is abundant, but overseas refined zinc production has limited growth. The demand is relatively stable and may improve during the "Golden September and Silver October." The LME inventory has continued to decline, and the zinc price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [61] Specific Data and Information - Zinc futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,285 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.18% [62] - Zinc inventory data, such as SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory, are given [71] Group 6: Nickel Core View - The first - phase benchmark price of nickel in Indonesia in September shows that nickel ore prices are basically stable with a slight decline, and other nickel products are also stable. The MHP benchmark price has increased due to demand. Nickel iron prices are relatively firm, stainless steel prices are strong, and the demand for the peak season in September and October is warming up. Sulfate nickel prices are stable, and the impact of the riots in Indonesia on production has subsided [74] Specific Data and Information - Nickel futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1% [75] - Nickel spot prices, downstream profit data, and nickel ore price and inventory data are presented [79][81][83] Group 7: Tin Core View - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to the tight supply. Yunnan Tin's planned 45 - day maintenance starting from August 30 and the decline in refined tin production in August 2025 have contributed to this. In the short term, tin prices still have upward momentum due to the tight supply [88] Specific Data and Information - Tin futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE tin main contract is 273,120 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 860 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.31% [89][95] - Tin inventory data, such as SHFE tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory, are given [99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment stage. The supply side has no new news, and the demand side has a marginal improvement expectation, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress short - term futures prices. The market trend depends on the actual downstream receiving situation [105] Specific Data and Information - Lithium carbonate futures prices, including daily and weekly changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 71,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a weekly decrease of 7,500 yuan [106] - Lithium spot prices, including prices of lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, are presented [110] - Lithium carbonate inventory data, such as Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and social inventory, are given [113] Group 9: Silicon Industry Chain Core View - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, it is in a narrow - range shock, and the shock range is expected to narrow further. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in power costs during the dry season will support prices [116] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a clear box - shock range. There is no strong driver to break the shock pattern for now, and it is necessary to track volume changes and breakthrough signals. The market is sensitive to news and may experience significant price fluctuations [116] Specific Data and Information - Industrial silicon spot prices, including prices at different ports and grades, are provided [117] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices, price differences, and related inventory and production data are presented [118][131][134]

Core Viewpoint - The independent financial advisors have provided a response to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the review inquiry letter for Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Holdings Co., Ltd.'s application for asset acquisition through share issuance, indicating that the company's sustainable operation capability is not expected to undergo significant adverse changes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China has strict capacity control, with no new capacity registrations since 2017, leading to a near supply-demand balance with a production capacity of 44.62 million tons per year as of 2024 [2][4]. - The global alumina production is projected to reach 146 million tons in 2024, with China's alumina production at 85.81 million tons, indicating a stable demand primarily driven by electrolytic aluminum smelting [2][6]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to grow, with consumption reaching 45.18 million tons in 2024, accounting for 62.2% of global consumption [6][10]. Group 2: Company Position and Competitive Landscape - Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum is a leading enterprise in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a production capacity of 6.459 million tons, representing 14.48% of the domestic total, and ranks second in the industry [11][12]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top ten companies accounting for 72% of the total capacity, which helps maintain a stable market structure [11][12]. - The company benefits from significant advantages in technology, cost, and market position, ensuring its competitive edge in the industry [11][12]. Group 3: Capacity Transfer and Future Plans - The company plans to transfer 3.96 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with 1.488 million tons already completed by the end of 2024 [18][20]. - The capacity transfer aligns with national policies promoting sustainable development and is expected to enhance the company's profitability and operational sustainability [19][20]. - The company has established a clear plan for capacity transfer from 2025 to 2027, with specific targets for each year [22]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Asset Management - The company has adequately provided for fixed asset impairment, with a total impairment provision of 3.484 billion yuan as of the end of 2024, primarily due to expected shutdowns related to capacity transfer [22]. - The company maintains a strong liquidity position, with a current ratio between 3.08 and 5.85, indicating robust debt repayment capabilities [21]. - The overall financial health is supported by a significant amount of current assets, ensuring that the company can meet its obligations without major risks [21].