铜 有色金属小组 有色金属日报 2025-7-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国非农数据超预期，隔夜美股继续走强，美元指数回升，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜收跌 0.58%至 9951 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 80540 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存增加 1075 至 94325 吨，注册仓 单量维持低位，注销仓单比例下滑至 33.8%，Cash/3M 升水 87.5 美元/吨。国 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the S232 investigation pending, the US copper market may continue to attract copper from other regions, leading to a tight - balance situation with low inventories and potential squeezes for both SHFE and LME copper. After the investigation results are out, the market narrative may reverse [1] - Aluminum: Supply has a slight increase, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced in terms of supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1] - Zinc: Zinc prices fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening seasonally. The short - term strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] - Nickel: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals are average, and opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6] - Stainless Steel: Supply has been reduced since late May, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals are weak, with prices expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] - Lead: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, which was due to speculation. The supply in July is expected to slightly decrease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 [8] - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment. The supply is disturbed, and demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, and long - positions can be cautiously held [11] - Industrial Silicon: With significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and in the long - term, it will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [14] - Lithium Carbonate: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week. The supply is expected to be in surplus next week, putting pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market Concerns: There are concerns about the S232 investigation results, and the NYMEX - LME price spread has widened again [1] - Inventory Situation: By May, over 450,000 tons of electrolytic copper were attracted to the US, causing significant drops in LME and domestic inventories [1] - Price Movement: As LME inventory dropped below 100,000 tons and cancelled warrants soared, copper price volatility rebounded, and the LME cash - 3M spread widened [1] Aluminum - Supply and Demand: Supply increased slightly from January to May, and in July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The market is expected to be balanced [1] - Inventory Outlook: In July, supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and attention should be paid to long - term spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage opportunities in a low - inventory situation [1] Zinc - Price Trend: Zinc prices oscillated upwards this week due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply Side: Domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and imported TC rose by 10 dollars/dry ton. In July, some smelters will undergo maintenance, but new capacities in the southwest and central regions will be put into production, with an expected increase of over 5,000 tons of zinc ingots [2] - Demand Side: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. Some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds and hold long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets [2] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and nickel bean imports increased in May [6] - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has slightly strengthened [6] - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [6] - Opportunity: Attention can be paid to opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have reduced production passively since late May [7] - Demand: Demand is mainly for rigid needs [7] - Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable [7] - Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have slightly increased, and some exchange warrants have expired and been liquidated [7] - Price Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] Lead - Price Movement: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week [8] - Supply Side: Scrap battery recycling volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of concentrates has tightened. TC is in a chaotic state [8] - Demand Side: Battery inventory is high, and the operating rate has declined this week. Consumption is weak in the off - season from April to July [8] - Price Forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and if the price remains above 17,200 due to macro factors, there may be a risk of price - support cycles [8] Tin - Price Trend: Tin prices oscillated upwards this week, driven by commodity sentiment [11] - Supply Side: Myanmar's Wa State needs to negotiate for short - term复产, and domestic smelting profits are inverted, with some production cuts in Jiangxi and difficult operations in Yunnan. Overseas supply disturbances have basically subsided [11] - Demand Side: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth rates of terminal electronics and photovoltaics are expected to decline. Domestic inventory oscillates, and overseas consumption continues to drive down LME inventory [11] - Strategy: Long - positions can be cautiously held in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - Production Changes: Hoshine Silicon Industry in Xinjiang significantly reduced production, while production in Yunnan slightly increased, and Sichuan's production remained stable [14] - Supply - Demand Balance: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14] - Long - Term Outlook: In the long - term, prices will be mainly based on the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and attention should be paid to cost reduction due to green - electricity subsidies and falling thermal - power prices [14] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: Prices increased due to sentiment speculation this week [16] - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, with downstream demand remaining weak. Some smelters have cut production, and high - cost capacities are being cleared [16] - Price Outlook: The supply surplus will lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices, but "anti - involution" policies may drive up sentiment [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of industrial products is strong, and the prices of most non - ferrous metals show different trends. The price of copper may continue to rise in the short term but the growth rate is expected to slow down; the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term; the price of lead is generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited; the price of zinc is boosted by the market structure; the price of tin is expected to fluctuate within a certain range; the price of nickel may show a downward trend; the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate and adjust; the price of alumina is recommended to short at high prices; the price of stainless steel is expected to be weak; the price of cast aluminum alloy may be volatile [1][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][12][14] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.67% to $10,010/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,090 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE copper is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is 9,850 - 10,100 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 2,000 to 93,250 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.03 to 25,000 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and China's exports are increasing [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.48% to $2,614/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is 2,580 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 13,000 to 693,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 28,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.05 to 329,000 tons [3] - **Market Situation**: The domestic "anti - involution competition" expectation warms up the commodity sentiment, and the aluminum inventory is at a low level, supporting the price [3] Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,178 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by 1 to $2,042/ton [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 46,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons [4] - **Market Situation**: The supply of primary lead remains high, and the supply of recycled lead is in short supply. The price of lead - acid batteries stops falling and rebounds, but the weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [4] Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.10% to 22,194 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by 26.5 to $2,713/ton [5] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons [5] - **Market Situation**: The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The LME market zinc Cash - 3S structure rises rapidly, which boosts the zinc price [5] Tin - **Price**: It is expected that the domestic tin price will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the terminal demand is weak, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate [6] Nickel - **Price**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [7] - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC evening quotation was 61,577 yuan, up 0.65%. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory**: The salt factory may face inventory accumulation pressure before the peak season [9] - **Market Situation**: The low - level varieties are tough, and the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate and adjust [9] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 4.23% to 3,058 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [11] - **Inventory**: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 21,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous day [11] - **Market Situation**: The policy of Guinea may lead to the increase of bauxite price, and the overall commodity market is bullish [11] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The spot market is expected to remain weak [12] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [12] - **Market Situation**: The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand and a pattern of oversupply [12] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.3% to 19,885 yuan/ton. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [14] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by about 200 to 21,000 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is mainly affected by the aluminum price [14]

Group 1 - The company held its third independent director meeting on July 2, 2025, with all three independent directors present, confirming the legality and validity of the meeting procedures [1][2] - The meeting approved the proposal regarding the conditions for the second exercise period of stock options and the lifting of restrictions on the second lock-up period for restricted stock under the 2023 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan [1][2] - The independent directors agreed to submit the proposal to the board of directors for further review [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting also approved the proposal to cancel a portion of stock options under the 2023 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan due to reasons such as employee resignation, death, performance assessment results, and expiration without exercise [2] - The cancellation process was deemed legal and compliant with relevant regulations, ensuring no harm to the company or its shareholders [2] - This proposal will also be submitted to the board of directors for consideration [2]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion letter from Shanghai Jintiancheng Law Firm confirms that Ningbo Bowei Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. has fulfilled the necessary conditions for the second exercise period of stock options and the lifting of restrictions on restricted stocks as part of its 2023 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan [1][2][3] Group 1: Implementation of the Incentive Plan - As of the date of the legal opinion, the implementation of the 2023 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan has been verified, including the approval of relevant proposals by the board and the independent opinions of independent directors [5][6][10] - The company granted a total of 44.385 million stock options to 535 eligible incentive objects and 2.4 million restricted stocks to 4 eligible incentive objects on May 18, 2023 [10][11] - The actual registration of stock options granted was 43.805 million, with 524 individuals registered, and the registration of restricted stocks was completed on July 5, 2023, with 240,000 shares granted to 4 individuals [11] Group 2: Conditions for Exercise and Lifting of Restrictions - The second exercise period for the stock options will end on June 29, 2025, and the conditions for exercising the options have been met, including no adverse audit opinions and compliance with performance targets [14][15] - The performance target for the second exercise period requires a net profit growth of at least 40% compared to 2022, which has been achieved [16][17] - The lifting of restrictions on the restricted stocks is contingent upon similar conditions, including no adverse audit opinions and meeting performance targets [17][18] Group 3: Cancellation of Stock Options - The company will cancel a total of 766,500 stock options due to various reasons, including the departure of 10 individuals and performance results of C and D for others [18][19] - The cancellation of stock options will not materially affect the company's financial status or the implementation of the incentive plan [19]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion letter from Shanghai Jintiancheng Law Firm confirms the legitimacy and compliance of the shareholding increase by the controlling shareholder of Ningbo Bowei Alloy Materials Co., Ltd, Bowei Group, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [1][6][8] Group 1: Shareholder Information - Bowei Group, the controlling shareholder, holds 81.0248% of shares, with a registered capital of 75.8 million yuan and established on November 15, 1989 [2][4] - As of the date of the legal opinion, Bowei Group's shareholding in Bowei Alloy was 225,568,681 shares, accounting for 28.23% of the total share capital [5][8] Group 2: Shareholding Increase Plan - Bowei Group plans to increase its shareholding through the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total investment of no less than 100 million yuan and no more than 200 million yuan within 12 months starting from December 26, 2024 [5][6] - During the increase period, Bowei Group acquired 5,745,500 shares, totaling an investment of 111.4967 million yuan [5][6] Group 3: Compliance and Disclosure - The legal opinion confirms that Bowei Group's shareholding increase complies with the Securities Law and the Management Measures for the Acquisition of Listed Companies [6][8] - Bowei Alloy has fulfilled its information disclosure obligations regarding the shareholding increase, with multiple announcements made between December 26, 2024, and June 4, 2025 [7][8] Group 4: Conclusion - The legal opinion concludes that Bowei Group possesses the legal qualifications to be a shareholder and that the shareholding increase does not violate any prohibitive regulations [6][8]

Group 1: Global Expansion and Production Capacity - The company has established production bases in Thailand and Mexico, and sales service institutions in the USA, Brazil, South Korea, and Japan, forming a robust global business layout [2][3] - In 2021, the company built a project in Monterrey, Mexico, with an annual production capacity of 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheels, with phase one (1.8 million units) already operational and phase two expected to be completed in Q3 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Applications in Robotics and Aerospace - The company has developed high-strength, non-heat-treated die-casting aluminum alloys suitable for robot components, currently undergoing material validation in Europe [4] - Aluminum-based rare earth intermediate alloys have been applied in large aircraft and aerospace components, including critical parts for aircraft engines and electric flying cars [5] Group 3: Innovations in Material Development - The company is a pioneer in domestic non-heat-treated alloy materials, achieving significant advancements in material research and production costs, with applications in new energy vehicles and drones [6][7] - Recent innovations include low-carbon A356 alloys and various high-performance aluminum alloys, which have been successfully applied in high-end manufacturing sectors [7] Group 4: Impact of Futures Market - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures fills a gap in the domestic recycled metal derivatives market, promoting a green circular economy [7] - Futures provide transparent market price signals and enhance risk management capabilities, allowing the company to better hedge against price fluctuations in recycled aluminum [7]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.66%至 9943 | 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.46%至 80390 | | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势。宏观方面，美国 6 月 | ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 49，连 | | | | | 续四个月萎缩，预期为 48.8，前值为 48.5。美国 5 月 | JOLTS 职位空缺 776.9 万人，高 | | | | | 于预期的 730 万人，前值为 739.1 | 万人，该数值大幅超出市场预期，显示市场韧性。 | | | | | 美联储主席鲍威尔在一次会议上未排除 7 | 月降息可能，称若非关税已降息，关税料将 | | | | | 对通胀产生影响。关税方面，7 月 9 | 日关税重启最后期限，特朗普政府正在调整贸易 | | | | 铜 | | 谈判策略，从寻求全面互惠协议转向更有限的分阶段协议，以避免对部分国家重新征 | | | | | 收严厉关税。库存方面， ...

期现日报 拾资咨询业务资格· 证监许可 【2011】12 2025年7月2日 星期三 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80205 | 79990 | +215.00 | 0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 200 | 130 | +70.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80075 | 79940 | +135.00 | 0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 90 | 65 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80080 | 79915 | +165.00 | 0.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 75 | રેર | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2161 | 2131 | +30.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | -79.16 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and is prone to short squeezes. The outcome of the S232 investigation will significantly impact the market. If the copper tariff is below 15%, the global narrative logic of the copper market may reverse [1][2] - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation. Pay attention to demand and consider reverse arbitrage strategies in the context of low inventory [1] - The zinc market maintains a bearish allocation strategy. Continue to hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] - The nickel market has a general short - term fundamental situation. Keep an eye on the opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week. In July, primary supply is expected to slightly decrease while demand is weak [7] - The tin market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The long - position strategy can be cautiously held, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10] - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the price will be based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13] - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face upward pressure on supply and downward pressure on price in the short term. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may drive up sentiment [15] Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a significant decrease in LME and domestic electrolytic copper inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1][2] - Outlook: The situation of low inventory and potential short squeezes will continue. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1][2] Aluminum - Supply and demand: Supply has slightly increased, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1] - Strategy: Pay attention to demand and consider reverse arbitrage strategies in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - Price movement: The zinc price has oscillated upward this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment [2] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas [2] - Strategy: Maintain a bearish allocation strategy and continue to hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] Nickel - Supply and demand: Pure nickel production remains high, and demand is weak. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [5] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - Supply and demand: Supply has decreased due to partial production cuts by steel mills, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6] - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired [6] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] Lead - Price movement: The lead price has rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts [7] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, and demand is weak [7] - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week [7] Tin - Price movement: The tin price has oscillated upward this week, mainly driven by commodity sentiment [10] - Supply and demand: Supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and demand is weak. The domestic and overseas inventory situations are different [10] - Strategy: Cautiously hold long positions in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10] Industrial Silicon - Supply: Hoshine Silicon Industry has significantly reduced production, while Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to increase production [13] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the price will be based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: The price has increased due to sentiment speculation this week [15] - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is weak [15] - Outlook: The price is expected to face upward pressure on supply and downward pressure on price in the short term, but the "anti - involution" policy may drive up sentiment [15]