1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure and decline [1] - Tin: Under pressure and decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and copper. The capture of the Venezuelan president has injected geopolitical risk premiums into the gold market and may distort the global copper supply [1][2][6] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different metals vary, affecting their price trends. For example, zinc is facing supply increase and demand decrease in the medium - long term, while aluminum and nickel are showing short - term rebound trends [1][8][12] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core view**: Long - term hold, short - term attention to the trading of the safe - haven properties of gold and silver after the opening [1][3] - **Main logic**: The capture of the Venezuelan president has a far - reaching impact, enhancing the safe - haven demand for gold. The European economic data is weak, and the overall support for precious metals in 2026 is strong [2][3] - **Market data**: SHFE gold price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX gold price increased by 0.23%. SHFE silver price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX silver price increased by 1.81% [2] Copper - **Core view**: Long - term hold, short - term market volatility may increase, copper is likely to rise and difficult to fall [1][6] - **Main logic**: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the geopolitical situation may further distort the supply. High copper prices suppress demand [5][6] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 0.84%, and the social inventory increased by 2.41 million tons [4] Zinc - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - **Main logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, demand weakens, supply slightly recovers, and the price center may gradually decline in January [8] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.06%, and the SMM seven - place social inventory decreased by 0.58 million tons [7] Aluminum - **Core view**: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][13] - **Main logic**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increases, the demand enters the off - season, and the alumina market is in excess [12] - **Market data**: The closing price of LME aluminum increased by 0.80%, and the SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.5 million tons [10] Nickel - **Core view**: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][17] - **Main logic**: Indonesia reduces the nickel ore quota, and the inventory is at a high level. The stainless steel market is in the off - season [16] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract increased by 0.35%, and the SMM nickel ore port inventory decreased by 480,000 wet tons [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1][21] - **Main logic**: The production in January decreases, the supply has room to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [20] - **Market data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.83%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has declined significantly due to high prices, and the support near key price points should be noted. In the future, macro and industrial factors need to be monitored [1]. - For aluminum, domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption show signs of weakening, but low inventory levels and strong expectations support the current high prices [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals due to the Indonesian nickel association's quota plan [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but the price rebounds in the short term due to the Indonesian policy [7]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - For tin, the short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026 [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the medium - to - long - term price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, the downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supports the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand shows signs of improvement [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 45, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 408, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,037 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has declined significantly due to high prices. Attention should be paid to the support near key price points. In the future, monitor domestic risk appetite, Fed's actions, the contraction of the New York spread, and the maintenance of high premiums in non - US regions [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 290. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1. The SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The import of primary aluminum decreased in November, while the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi - finished products increased. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected. The automobile terminal sales are poor, but the photovoltaic installation volume has rebounded better than expected. The inventory of aluminum ingots and products has increased, and the apparent demand has decreased [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 40, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 40. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a volatile trend, alleviating the overseas supply - demand contradiction. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the output of some smelters has decreased. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 3,300, the Jinchuan premium increased by 350, and the Russian nickel premium remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are weak. The Indonesian nickel association's quota plan has increased the motivation to go long, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 150, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 120 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is relatively stable, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a certain price - supporting motivation [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot premium increased by 10, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased by 25, and the 1 secondary lead price difference remained unchanged. The social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price followed the macro trend to rise. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated to some extent, but the battery factory's high - level production makes it difficult to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot import profit increased by 16,004.33, the spot export profit decreased by 14,232.80, the tin position decreased by 6,427, the LME C - 3M decreased by 5, the LME inventory increased by 90, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price fluctuated and declined. The short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026 [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 55, the 553 East China basis increased by 55, the 553 Tianjin basis increased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 204 [15]. - **Market Outlook**: A large factory in Xinjiang reduced production. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the medium - to - long - term price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, the main contract basis increased by 500, the near - month contract basis increased by 40, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 790 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supports the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand shows signs of improvement [19].

Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, global markets operated amidst geopolitical conflicts, tariff disruptions, and technological narratives, with both gold and equity assets rising simultaneously, while the US dollar and oil prices showed similar trends [1] - The market experienced four phases driven by significant events: "Trump trade reversal - risk appetite recovery - simultaneous rise of stocks and gold - 'TACO trade'" [1] - For 2026, a temporary easing in the US-China rivalry is expected in the first three quarters, but risks may rise around the US midterm elections [1] - The US is in a downward credit cycle, attempting to reverse the trend through policy combinations, while China is in the early stages of a new credit expansion [1] Precious Metals - In 2025, precious metals like gold and silver reached historical highs, driven by initial concerns over inflation and later by interest rate cuts and structural squeezes [2] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to favor precious metals due to continued fiscal and monetary easing in the US, with inflation remaining sticky [2] - Gold's long-term bull market is supported by sovereign debt issues, de-globalization, and ongoing asset reallocation by central banks and private sectors [2] - Silver is projected to face a supply deficit of 2,950 tons, with industrial demand remaining resilient [2] Copper - In 2025, copper prices unexpectedly rose due to increased mining disruptions and supportive macro conditions [3] - The copper market is expected to remain in a tight balance in 2026, with supply constraints likely easing by the second half of the year [3] - Consumption growth is projected to stabilize at 2.5% to 3%, supported by demand from electric grids and AI technologies [3] Aluminum - The aluminum market in 2026 is expected to show a pattern of "loose ore, stable aluminum, and high profits" [4] - Upstream bauxite supply is expected to be ample, with alumina facing oversupply pressures [4] - Domestic aluminum production is nearing its peak, while global supply is slightly oversupplied [4] Nickel - The nickel market is anticipated to continue facing oversupply in 2026, with prices under downward pressure [5] - The introduction of MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) is expected to significantly lower cost support for nickel prices [5] - Overall, the market is expected to remain bearish due to weak stainless steel demand and insufficient growth in the new energy sector [5] Tin - The global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026, with demand driven by AI-related electronics showing explosive growth [6] - Supply recovery is anticipated from Myanmar and Indonesia, leading to a slight increase in global tin ingot production [6] - Price expectations are set between $31,700 and $40,000 per ton for LME tin [6] Zinc - The zinc market is expected to continue showing significant divergence between domestic and international trends in 2026 [7] - Domestic supply is expected to increase significantly, while demand remains weak due to real estate constraints [7] - Overall, zinc prices are projected to fluctuate within a range of 21,500 to 24,500 yuan per ton [7] Lead - The lead market is expected to show a "tight ore, loose ingot, and strong domestic, weak foreign" structure in 2026 [8] - Global lead supply is expected to be strong, while demand remains weak, leading to an overall surplus of about 100,000 tons [8] - Price expectations are set between 16,600 and 18,000 yuan per ton for domestic lead [8] Black Metals - The black metal market is expected to see a deep V-shaped reversal in 2025, with steel demand continuing to decline [10] - Iron ore is entering a loosening cycle, while coal prices may remain stable due to supportive policies [10] - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize around 1,410 yuan per ton [10] Silicon - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to show relative supply looseness in 2026 [11] - Industrial silicon supply is projected to reach 4.95 million tons, while demand growth is expected to be only 4% [11] - Price expectations for industrial silicon are set between 7,000 and 10,500 yuan per ton [11] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [12] - Despite a projected 23% increase in global lithium resources, domestic demand is expected to grow by 20% [12] - Price expectations are set between 70,000 and 150,000 yuan per ton, with an average price around 100,000 yuan per ton [12]

宏创控股公告称，公司拟通过发行股份购买山东魏桥铝电等9家企业持有的山东宏拓实业有限公司100% 股权。2025年12月31日，公司收到中国证监会批复，同意其向9家企业发行股份购买相关资产的注册申 请，批复自下发之日起12个月内有效。公司董事会将在规定期限内办理本次交易相关事宜，并及时披露 信息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hongda Co., Ltd. (600331.SH) plans to use up to RMB 1 billion for purchasing structured deposits, primarily focusing on short-term products with a maximum duration of one year [1] Group 1 - The company intends to utilize the funds in a rolling manner within the specified limit and duration [1] - The trading balance at any point during the investment period, including reinvested earnings, will not exceed the aforementioned limit [1] - The approval from the shareholders' meeting is valid for 12 months from the date of approval [1]

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有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月30日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 有色板块在铜带领下有所调整，但铝产业链相关品种跌幅不大，临 近假日建议减仓观望为主，上方压力区间23000-24000，下方支撑 区间21000-21300，可买入虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格 暂时企稳，在产产能环比持平，建议节前轻仓操作，上方压力区间 2800-3000，下方支撑区间2000-2200，可买入虚值看涨期权做保 护。 ...

12月31日，罗平锌电跌1.06%，截至发稿，报8.40元/股，成交4141.61万元，换手率1.51%，总市值27.17 亿元。 资料显示，云南罗平锌电股份有限公司位于云南省罗平县罗雄镇长家湾，成立日期2000年12月21日，上 市日期2007年2月15日，公司主营业务涉及水力发电、铅锌矿的开采、选矿、铅锌金属的冶炼及附属产 品的提炼。主营业务收入构成为：锌锭、锌合金82.42%，锗精矿8.29%，电力3.02%，硫酸2.57%，铅渣 (铅矿)1.63%，银精矿0.84%，食用油及副产品0.60%，其他0.23%，旧极板0.19%，镉饼0.11%，铜精矿 0.09%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，益民基金旗下1只基金重仓罗平锌电。益民核心增长混合（560006）三季度持有股数3.44万 股，占基金净值比例为1.09%，位居第六大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约3096元。 关旭累计任职时间2年96天，现任基金资产总规模3.59亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报35.81%， 任职期间 最差基金回报12.18%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | BEAT A ST 10 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | 10.65 1994 - 1 | 20 3 | 金银：会议纪要带来降息预期走高，反弹 | | | 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 盘面表现：今年以来，贵金属抢眼，供需失衡、美联储降息以及交割月大逼仓致使资金涌入 共同催生了本轮的银铂钯"疯涨"行情。过热之后盘面尚在调整阶段。 ①美联储议息会议纪要公布。今日凌晨，美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示， FOMC在12月 会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。一些与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在本次会议 下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。纪要同时显示，如果通胀 如预期般逐步下降，大多数官员认为进一步降息是合适的。委员们一致认为，准备金余额已 经下降到充足的水平，委员会将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应 。他们还同意取消对常备回购操作的总额限制。市场认为2026年或降息60个基点。 ②俄乌变数较多。据报道，当泽连斯基提议将15年期限延长至少一倍时，特朗普回应称"会 考虑一下"。泽连斯基表示，他认为 ...

Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices rose significantly, influenced by the precious metals market and the warming of risk appetite at home and abroad. Considering the industrial perspective, the negative feedback from downstream in China is obvious, with the weekly operating rate of copper rods dropping seasonally and the overall social inventory accumulating rapidly. In the overseas market, the CL spread shows a slight compression trend. Looking ahead, with the continuous loose liquidity overseas, the overall idea for copper prices is to buy on dips, and the expected price range in December is between $10,800 and $12,500 [1]. - In November, the import volume of primary aluminum decreased significantly, while the exports of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi - finished products increased. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously estimated. The terminal sales of automobiles are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy is removed in 2026, but the month - on - month increase in photovoltaic installation is better than expected. Aluminum ingot and product inventories are accumulating, and apparent demand is declining. Although domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption show signs of weakening and the basis is at a multi - year low, the low inventory level and strong expectations can support the current high price [1]. - This week, the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a volatile trend, alleviating the overseas supply - demand contradiction. On the supply side, the domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and the domestic zinc ore supply will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. With the approaching of winter storage, domestic smelters are competing for zinc ore inventory. Currently, the profit is acceptable, but attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production, and the production increase of other smelters is limited. In December, many smelters such as Chihong, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are under maintenance and are expected to resume production in mid - January, with a month - on - month decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and downstream orders at the end of the year are weak; overseas, European demand is average, and US zinc ingot imports have increased recently. As the export window gradually opens, the domestic social inventory is oscillating downward, the domestic spot is in short supply, and the premium remains high. The LME inventory overseas has rebounded, and the premium has changed to backwardation. In terms of strategy, the domestic fundamentals of zinc are currently poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price center may be difficult to fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for the domestic - foreign spread, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity; for the calendar spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [1][4]. - On the supply side of nickel, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, but the Jinchuan premium is strong. In terms of inventory, the inventory accumulation in China slowed down this week, and the LME inventory increased slightly. The short - term fundamentals are weak. According to the news, the Indonesian Nickel Association (a non - official organization) said that the quota plan for next year is 250 million tons (a 34% decrease compared to 2025). Although there may be a difference between the actual quota and the statement of the association, it is difficult to disprove it in the short term. From the perspective of odds, more investors are taking long positions, and the game between policy and fundamentals has intensified [7]. - In terms of stainless steel supply, steel mills maintain a high production schedule. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of ferronickel has stabilized slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has remained stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are stable. The overall fundamentals are weak, but the Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support prices. The news of quota reduction by the Indonesian Nickel Association has driven a short - term price rebound [9]. - This week, lead prices rose following the macro - trend. On the supply side, the profit of primary lead drives production, and the maintenance is expected to reduce production by 10,000 - 15,000 tons. The operation rate of concentrate mines is seasonally declining, and the concentrate supply is tightening with no hope of a TC rebound; the secondary lead production has resumed, and the output has increased. Recyclers are showing the intention to support prices, and the maintenance within the month will affect 15,000 tons of production. On the demand side, the battery operation rate was at a high level this week, and the monthly electric product inventory was accumulating, with a weakening demand expectation. Since the end of September, the lead ingot market has tightened, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious. Currently, the resumption of secondary lead production has alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, but the high operation rate of battery factories makes it difficult to accumulate inventory, and downstream replenishment at low prices provides support. Lead prices are oscillating around 17,000. The willingness of secondary lead producers to sell has recovered with the rebound of lead prices, and the refined - scrap spread is - 50. Recently, the implementation of the new national standard has suppressed the consumption of two - wheeled vehicle batteries, and the procurement and sales are cold at the end of the year. This week, the battery operation rate dropped to 72%. The primary lead supply in November - December is expected to be flat. This week, the increase in secondary lead production and the maintenance of primary lead offset each other, and the lead ingot spot is still in short supply, with low inventory. The refined - scrap spread has fallen back to - 50 with the rise of lead prices, and the primary lead ingot spot has support. The five - region social inventory has continued to decline to 17,900 tons, and there is still a risk of warehouse receipt contradiction. It is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain an oscillating trend next week, with an expected range of 17,100 - 17,600. There are signs of scrap battery price support, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts and cautious operation is recommended [10][11]. - This week, tin prices oscillated upward under the influence of macro - sentiment and capital allocation. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore remains at a low level with limited rebound space. Overseas, the production in Wa State is recovering slowly due to slow commissioning of pumping equipment, but the high price recently has stimulated the export of a large amount of inventory ore. If the tin price remains high, it may also accelerate the solution of the mine water accumulation problem; the Indonesian President announced that tin ingot exports will return to normal levels in 2026, and there is a rush to export at the end of the year. The export in November is expected to exceed 6,000 tons, and the quota issue in the first quarter of next year is expected to be controversial; the temporary peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda under the mediation of the United States has alleviated the short - term risk disturbance. On the demand side, the high price is mainly supported by rigid demand, and the downstream's willingness to accept orders has significantly weakened with the rapid rise of tin prices, and the inventory is accumulating at home and abroad. In the short term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply under the stimulation of high prices, and the fundamentals show signs of marginal weakening. If there is a systematic macro - correction, the price may fluctuate greatly; in the long term, demand determines the upper price limit. Tin can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. 2026 is a year of significant supply recovery, and if the macro - situation is worse than expected, the price may also fluctuate greatly downward [14]. - In the industrial silicon market, a large factory in Xinjiang increased production by 2 units and currently maintains 100 units. Orient Hope has entered the maintenance period and reduced production by 2 units, the Inner Mongolia area reduced production by 4 units, and a silicon factory in Gansu increased production by 4 units. As large factories gradually enter the maintenance period, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in December are in a balanced state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operation rate is low. The price trend is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [17]. - The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly under the influence of factors such as the reference price switch of Tianqi Lithium and the processing fee negotiation of downstream lithium iron phosphate factories. On the raw material side, the available supply is still tight, and lithium salt producers have limited acceptance of high - priced ore, resulting in light trading. On the lithium salt side, upstream producers mainly focus on long - term contracts, and a small number of spot orders are sold at high prices, and the inventory continues to decline. On the downstream side, under the SMM settlement system, the futures price exceeds the acceptable range of material producers, and the current trading is mainly for the rigid demand of enterprises, with a small number of high - price transactions with post - pricing. Currently, the quoted price of spodumene - based electric - grade lithium carbonate is around 05 - 2000 - 05 - 1500, the actual transaction price of first - tier products is around 05 - 1500, and the second - and third - tier products are sold in large quantities at around 05 - 2200. In the short - term supply - demand situation, the actual capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate is relatively high, and both supply and demand are strong, but the demand shows signs of marginal weakening. The inventory reduction in December is expected to be maintained at 7,000 - 7,500 tons. In January, without considering upstream maintenance and the resumption of production by CATL, a month - on - month demand decline of about 8% will lead to an inventory accumulation of 2,000 - 3,000 tons [19]. Grouped Summaries Copper - This week, copper prices rose significantly, influenced by the precious metals market and the warming of risk appetite at home and abroad [1] - Domestically, the negative feedback from downstream is obvious, with the weekly operating rate of copper rods dropping seasonally and the overall social inventory accumulating rapidly [1] - Overseas, the CL spread shows a slight compression trend, and the overall idea for copper prices is to buy on dips, with an expected price range in December of $10,800 - $12,500 [1] Aluminum - In November, the import volume of primary aluminum decreased significantly, while exports increased, and domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously estimated [1] - The terminal sales of automobiles are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy is removed in 2026, but the month - on - month increase in photovoltaic installation is better than expected [1] - Aluminum ingot and product inventories are accumulating, and apparent demand is declining. The low inventory level and strong expectations can support the current high price [1] Zinc - This week, the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a volatile trend, alleviating the overseas supply - demand contradiction [4] - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and the domestic zinc ore supply will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [4] - In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production, and many smelters are under maintenance in December, with a month - on - month decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons expected [4] Nickel - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, and on the demand side, the overall demand is weak, but the Jinchuan premium is strong [7] - This week, the domestic inventory accumulation slowed down, and the LME inventory increased slightly. The short - term fundamentals are weak [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Association said that the quota plan for next year is 250 million tons (a 34% decrease compared to 2025), intensifying the game between policy and fundamentals [7] Stainless Steel - Steel mills maintain a high production schedule, and demand is mainly driven by rigid demand [9] - The price of ferronickel has stabilized slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has remained stable, with high inventory and stable warehouse receipts [9] - The overall fundamentals are weak, but the Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support prices, driving a short - term price rebound [9] Lead - This week, lead prices rose following the macro - trend. On the supply side, primary lead production is affected by maintenance, and secondary lead production has resumed [11] - On the demand side, the battery operation rate was at a high level this week, and the monthly electric product inventory was accumulating, with a weakening demand expectation [11] - The lead ingot spot is still in short supply, with low inventory. It is expected that lead prices will oscillate next week in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 [11] Tin - This week, tin prices oscillated upward under the influence of macro - sentiment and capital allocation [14] - On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore remains at a low level, and overseas production recovery is slow but high prices stimulate inventory ore export [14] - In the short term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply, and in the long term, demand determines the upper price limit [14] Industrial Silicon - A large factory in Xinjiang increased production, Orient Hope entered the maintenance period, and the Inner Mongolia area and a Gansu factory adjusted production [17] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate with the cost [17] - In the long term, the over - capacity is still high, and the price trend is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price continued to rise significantly under the influence of factors such as the reference price switch of Tianqi Lithium and downstream processing fee negotiation [19] - On the raw material side, trading is light, and on the lithium salt side, inventory is declining, with downstream trading mainly for rigid demand [19] - In the short - term, both supply and demand are strong but demand shows signs of marginal weakening, and inventory reduction in December and accumulation in January are expected [19]