Core Viewpoint - Recent announcements of share reduction plans by major shareholders of Hunan Silver indicate a strategic move following a significant increase in the company's stock price, which has risen over 100% this year [1][6] Shareholder Reduction Plans - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. (Great Wall Asset) plans to reduce its holdings by up to 55 million shares, accounting for 1.95% of Hunan Silver's total share capital, from December 11, 2025, to March 10, 2026 [1][2] - The second largest shareholder, Chenzhou State-owned Capital Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Chenzhou Guokong), announced a plan to reduce its holdings by up to 56.46 million shares, representing 2% of the total share capital, from November 10, 2025, to February 9, 2026 [2][3] Shareholding Background - Both Great Wall Asset and Chenzhou Guokong acquired their shares through Hunan Silver's 2020 restructuring plan, with Chenzhou Guokong holding 210 million shares and Great Wall Asset holding 159 million shares [3][4] - The investment amounts for the restructuring were approximately 266.7 million yuan for Chenzhou Guokong and 146.05 million yuan for Great Wall Asset [4] Financial Performance - As of November 19, 2025, Hunan Silver's closing price was 6.34 yuan, with a market capitalization exceeding 17 billion yuan [5] - Chenzhou Guokong's shares are valued at approximately 1.33 billion yuan, about five times its investment, while Great Wall Asset's shares are valued at around 729 million yuan, also about five times its investment [5] - If both shareholders proceed with their planned reductions at the current price, they would realize cash amounts of approximately 358 million yuan and 348.7 million yuan, respectively [5] Business Overview - Hunan Silver's main business includes the smelting and sales of non-ferrous and precious metals such as silver, electrolytic lead, gold, and copper products [6] - The company has seen rapid growth in performance this year, with a revenue of 8.594 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.56%, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 28.44% [6] - The company adjusted its share repurchase price limit from 5 yuan to 8 yuan per share due to the rising stock price [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [1][2]. - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic and imported TC decreased further this week. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, the demand in Europe is average and the growth rate in the Middle East is high. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity and be cautious when increasing positions; for the month - spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5]. - Nickel prices decreased this week. The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities [6]. - Stainless steel prices were weak. The steel mill's production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory remained at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities [7]. - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level. The supply of primary and recycled lead was tight, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious. Now the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some of the contradictions, and the social inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - This week, tin prices increased. The processing fee of tin ore remained at a low level, and the supply has been marginally repaired. The overseas output is still controversial. The demand is mainly rigid, and the overseas LME inventory has recovered. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will increase, but the elasticity is limited. It is recommended to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [11]. - This week, the price of industrial silicon was stable. The production in the northwest region was basically stable, and the overall change was small. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate; in the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. - Affected by the lithium - battery demand expectation and the market's bullish sentiment, the price of lithium carbonate was strong. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and the downstream inventory is still relatively sufficient. The basis has slightly weakened. In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [17]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai copper spot price changed from 55 to 95, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 130, the LME inventory increased by 17,375, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 800 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2,000, and the aluminum LME注销仓单 increased by 29,450 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 100, the zinc social inventory remained unchanged, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,550, and the LME zinc注销仓单 increased by 100 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC decreased further this week. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, the demand in Europe is average and the growth rate in the Middle East is high. The export window has opened [5]. - **Strategy**: The domestic consumption of zinc is weak, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity and be cautious when increasing positions; for the month - spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 1, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, the LME inventory decreased by 1,986, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 2,238 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill's production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory remained at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the lead spot price increased by 10, the LME inventory decreased by 325, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 2,500 [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of primary and recycled lead was tight, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious. Now the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some of the contradictions, and the social inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken [9]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the tin spot import profit decreased by 236.31, the LME inventory increased by 60, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [10][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of tin ore remained at a low level, and the supply has been marginally repaired. The overseas output is still controversial. The demand is mainly rigid, and the overseas LME inventory has recovered [11]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will increase, but the elasticity is limited. It is recommended to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 410, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 410, the 553 East China basis decreased by 410, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 410, and the warehouse receipt increased by 10 [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in the northwest region was basically stable, and the overall change was small. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate; in the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,450, the main - contract basis decreased by 4,280, the near - month contract basis increased by 1,500, and the warehouse receipt increased by 155 [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and the downstream inventory is still relatively sufficient. The basis has slightly weakened [17]. - **Price Trend**: In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have shown rapid rotation, with technology growth remaining the market's main theme. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips. In the bond market, the supply - demand pattern may improve in the fourth quarter, and it is expected to oscillate and recover. For various commodities, strategies vary based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [4][8]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: News includes diplomatic statements, potential mergers in the securities industry, changes in semiconductor intervention, and expected memory price increases. The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [2][3]. - **Strategy View**: After the previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, with technology growth as the main theme. The policy supports the capital market, and the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Wednesday's futures contract prices showed declines. There are upcoming treasury cash management deposit tenders, and the Japanese 10 - year bond yield reached a high. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection [5]. - **Strategy View**: The 10 - month economic data is weak, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, considering the supply - demand pattern, inflation expectations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Prices of gold and silver in domestic and overseas markets rose. The US 10 - year bond yield and the US dollar index are given. Fed officials' statements and meeting minutes influenced market expectations [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rebounded. LME and domestic warehouse inventory changes, price differentials, and import losses are presented [12]. - **Strategy View**: Despite geopolitical headwinds, copper prices are supported by tight raw material supply and improved spot conditions. Reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are given [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices stabilized and rose. Changes in inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [14]. - **Strategy View**: With relatively low overseas inventory and potential domestic inventory reduction, aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after oscillation. Reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum are given [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices showed changes. Inventory, positions, and price differentials at home and abroad are presented [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc ore is in short supply during the refinery's winter stockpiling. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices changed slightly. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: Lead raw materials are in short supply, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot prices, cost, and inventory changes are presented [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices are under pressure from fundamentals. Short - term decline space may be limited, and short - term trading strategies are recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply is affected by mine shortages, and demand has long - term support from emerging sectors [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Reference operating ranges are given [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. Futures contract prices and spot price changes are presented [22]. - **Strategy View**: The market is dominated by bulls. Attention should be paid to potential price fluctuations, and a reference operating range is given [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas mine prices may decline, and alumina has a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and a reference operating range is given [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. Spot prices, positions, and inventory changes are presented [26]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and prices are expected to continue to decline [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices stabilized. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [31]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices changed slightly. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [33]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is increasing, and demand has a marginal increase. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices fell. Inventory, positions, and spot price changes are presented [35][37]. - **Strategy View**: Glass supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [39]. - **Strategy View**: For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have different fundamentals and trading suggestions [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also changed. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [43][45]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon may have a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. Supply and demand factors, inventory, and spot prices are presented [48][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: A short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and a hedging suggestion is provided [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and related refined oil prices changed. Inventory changes are presented [53]. - **Strategy View**: Oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is suggested [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [55]. - **Strategy View**: High port inventory and supply - demand imbalance put pressure on prices. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [56]. - **Strategy View**: The market is sensitive to news. Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors are presented [58]. - **Strategy View**: Benzene supply is under pressure, and styrene prices may stop falling [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [60]. - **Strategy View**: Supply exceeds demand, and export expectations are weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [62]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is high, and inventory is expected to accumulate. A short - selling strategy is recommended [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [64]. - **Strategy View**: Supply may accumulate, and demand has limited improvement. Attention should be paid to potential upward trends [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [66]. - **Strategy View**: p - Xylene inventory may accumulate slightly in November. Attention should be paid to potential upward trends [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices changed. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [69]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [71]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply and demand factors are presented [75]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is expected to be high before the Spring Festival. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and an anti - arbitrage strategy is preferred [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply and demand factors are presented [77]. - **Strategy View**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. Supply and demand factors are presented [79]. - **Strategy View**: Import costs have a bottom, and meal prices are expected to oscillate [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil and fat prices changed. Supply and demand factors are presented [83]. - **Strategy View**: Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate, and a long - biased strategy can be considered if production declines [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Supply and demand factors are presented [85]. - **Strategy View**: Sugar prices are expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded slightly. Supply and demand factors are presented [88]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak demand and high supply [90].

现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】 2025年11月20日 星期四 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 86715 | 86002 | +110.00 | 0.13% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 85 | 70 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 85990 | 85945 | +45.00 | 0.05% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 35 | 5 | +30.00 | -- | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 85975 | 85880 | +95.00 | 0.11% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -55 | -55 | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2974 | 2729 | +245.00 | 8.98% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -35.33 | -32.62 | -2.71 | - | 美元/ ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.18% at 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index slightly declined by 0.04% to 13080.09 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25% to 3076.85 points. The total trading volume across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 17,428 billion yuan [1]. Aquaculture Sector - The aquaculture sector saw a significant surge, with the water product index rising by 9.52% by the end of the trading day. Key stocks such as Guolian Aquatic (20% increase), Zhanzi Island, and Dahu Co. all hit the daily limit [2]. - The Chinese government announced a suspension of imports of Japanese seafood due to Japan's failure to provide promised quality assurance materials, which has led to a strong market reaction in the aquaculture sector [2]. - According to a report, China's marine aquaculture production is expected to exceed 37 million tons in 2024, with a per capita consumption of 26.7 kg, indicating a growing demand for high-quality protein [2]. Banking and Insurance Sectors - The banking sector showed strong performance, with China Bank rising nearly 4% to a historical high, and other banks like Everbright Bank and Ping An Bank also seeing increases of nearly 2% [4]. - Financial analysts noted that the banking sector's expansion has slowed, but there is potential for improved profitability due to regulatory support and a focus on liquidity management as the year-end approaches [4]. - The insurance sector also performed well, with major companies like China Life and China Pacific Insurance seeing gains of nearly 3% [4][5]. - A report indicated that A-share listed insurance companies are expected to achieve high growth in earnings by the third quarter of 2025, driven by a recovering capital market and improved operational efficiency [5]. Metals Sector - The metals sector, particularly precious metals, experienced strong gains, with the precious metals index rising by 5.38%. Key stocks such as Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold saw significant increases [7]. - International gold prices also rose, with COMEX gold futures up by 0.7% to $4095.1 per ounce, indicating a favorable outlook for the precious metals market [7]. - Analysts are optimistic about the industrial metals market, predicting continued price increases for copper and aluminum, as well as a shift in supply-demand dynamics for lithium due to rising storage demand [7].

锌：关注宏观指引 锌价或宽幅震荡 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 矿端，近期内外比价持续低位，周内进口锌精矿亏损维持在2000元/金属吨左右；冶炼厂持续积极采购国产锌矿，国内锌精矿偏紧未改，多地加工费继续走低。 SMM Zn50国产周度TC均价下调50元/金属吨至2600元/金属吨 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 ★☆☆ | | | | 锌 | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | な女女 | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 有色金属日报 【铝】 周三沪铜收涨，市场再次转而关注美国就业压力,晚间等待相关数据。近期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices oscillated weakly, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The market's concern about liquidity persists, and macro factors are unlikely to form an upward driving force. The overall global visible inventory is still in an accumulation trend, close to recent high levels, and the peak - season demand in China has not been effectively realized. High copper prices have shown a restraining effect on terminal copper consumption. Without sudden events, copper volatility may remain at a low level, and copper prices will exhibit a high - level oscillating market [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. The alumina market has a narrow - range recovery. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has broken through the 22,000 - yuan mark. However, due to environmental protection restrictions in the north and the suppressing effect of high prices on demand, the reduction of aluminum ingots is blocked, and the proportion of molten aluminum continues to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance in rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both fell by 0.2%. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more apparent, and the LME inventory remains at 250,000 tons with poor digestion, exerting significant pressure on the market. Nickel prices are still in a weak operation, but be vigilant against macro disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: In terms of macro, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims was 1957,000, slightly up from the previous week. Fundamentally, the acceptance of downstream users has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories increased, while BC copper warehouse receipts decreased. Overall, the global visible inventory is in an accumulation trend, and high copper prices restrain terminal consumption, which may restrict the upward movement of copper prices in the future [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. The mining area in Guinea has a high复产 difficulty, and the expectation of production reduction during the northern heating season remains to be fulfilled. The macro - sentiment is warming up, but high prices suppress demand, and the reduction of aluminum ingots is blocked. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the rush - to - buy stage of new - energy vehicle purchase tax [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel fell. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The benchmark price of nickel ore slightly declined, the price of nickel - iron decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory increased. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is significant, and nickel prices are weakly operating [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 495 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 35 yuan/ton. The price of scrap copper decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 356 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods also decreased. In terms of inventory, LME and Comex inventories increased, and the social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrate and recycled lead decreased. The inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the inventory in the SHFE increased by 4208 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the spot premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and alumina remained stable, and the processing fees of some downstream products increased. The inventory in the LME remained unchanged, the inventory in the SHFE increased by 1564 tons, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1775 yuan/ton, and the price differences between Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi and 1 imported nickel - Wuxi increased. The prices of nickel ore and some nickel - iron products remained stable, and the prices of stainless - steel products decreased slightly. The inventory in the LME remained unchanged, the inventory in the SHFE increased by 3386 tons, and the social inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%, and the prices of SMM 0 and 1 spot zinc decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The TC remained unchanged. The inventory in the SHFE increased by 793 tons, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of SMM spot tin and tin concentrate decreased. The inventory in the SHFE increased by 266 tons, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts present the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts display the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts present the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of experience in commodity research, who has won multiple industry awards; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [48][49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue at a low level. The improvement in tin ore supply is expected to be limited this year, with the supply side remaining strong. - In the demand side, tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more obviously suppressed. - Considering the strong fundamentals, after the market sentiment stabilizes, consider a low - buying strategy. Follow up on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [5]. Zinc - The fundamentals change little, with the Shanghai zinc market oscillating. The supply - loosening logic has basically materialized, and the supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. - The demand side shows no unexpected performance. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. - The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a squeeze on LME is alleviated. In the future, the fundamentals may provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc, and it may oscillate in the short term [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a supply - demand surplus, with the price in a weak oscillation. Pay attention to the production - cut trends of high - cost enterprises. - The Shanghai aluminum market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [9]. Copper - The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price oscillates. The macro - situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the subsequent interest - rate cut expectation is unclear. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream has a high psychological price limit for copper. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts following the aluminum price. The cost - side support is significant, and the supply is restricted by raw materials. - The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak. In the short term, the ADC12 price will remain strong, and follow up on changes in raw material supply and demand [12]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market breaks downward, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Funds are using nickel for short - hedging. - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high at low prices, but the overall fundamentals improve slightly, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with few inquiries and limited transactions. The macro - drive is insufficient, and the supply - side pressure remains, while the demand is weak. - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and follow up on steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillates at a relatively high level. The weekly production shows a small increase, and the downstream demand is optimistic, with social inventory decreasing. - In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate, and follow up on the resumption of production by large enterprises and changes in demand [18]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is partially reduced, and the futures price oscillates. If the silicone industry reduces production, the inventory - accumulation pressure on industrial silicon will increase. - The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the price fluctuating between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, but the demand is weak, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory - accumulation expectations in each link. - The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and pay attention to the support from the spot market and the digestion of warehouse receipts [21]. Summary by Directory Tin - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin both decreased by - 0.17%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 14.29%. The import loss decreased by 3.34%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the import of tin ore decreased by - 15.13%. In October, the production of SMM refined tin increased by 53.09%, and the average operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHEF inventory weekly increased by 4.44%, and the social inventory increased by 5.83% [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by - 0.36%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads increased [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of refined zinc increased by 2.85%. In September, the import decreased by - 11.61%, and the export increased by 696.78%. The operating rates of some processing industries changed slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by - 1.88%, and the LME inventory increased by 8.88% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by - 0.79%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of alumina increased by 2.39%, and the production of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.52%. The import and export of electrolytic aluminum also increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.03%, and the LME inventory decreased by - 0.39% [9]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by - 0.58%, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by - 16.58%. The import loss decreased [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased by - 2.62%, and in September, the import increased by 26.50%. The operating rates of copper rod production increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased by - 1.07%, and the LME inventory increased by 3.27% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by - 0.46%, and some refined - scrap spreads decreased [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the export decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 0.18%, and the daily inventories in some regions changed slightly [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by - 1.47%, and the import loss decreased. The cost of some production methods of electrowon nickel changed [14]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel in China increased by 0.84%, and the import increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 9.11%, and the social inventory increased by 8.10% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40%, and the price of some raw materials decreased slightly. Some monthly spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38%, and in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. The import of stainless steel increased, and the export decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.73%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.53% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.45%, and the price of some lithium - related raw materials increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70%. The import decreased by - 10.30%, and the export decreased by - 59.12% [18]. - **Inventory**: In October, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by - 10.90%, and the downstream inventory decreased by - 13.50% [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national production of industrial silicon increased by 7.46%, and the production in some regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased slightly, and the production of polysilicon increased [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by - 1.09%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by - 1.41% [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased by - 0.85%. Some monthly spreads increased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased by - 0.74%, and the monthly production increased by 3.08%. The import increased, and the export and net - export decreased [21]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 5.14% [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and 85,000 yuan might be the psychological price for downstream price-fixing. Aluminum prices showed a short - term oscillating trend. Zinc prices fluctuated, and the price center was unlikely to drop significantly. Nickel and stainless - steel fundamentals were weak, and short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered. Lead prices oscillated at a high level and were expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week. Tin prices increased, with short - term observation recommended and long - term low - buying near the cost line. Industrial silicon prices were expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Carbonate lithium prices were strong, and a pattern change might occur in 1 - 2 years [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][12][16][18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Driven by the precious metal market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market had both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The 85,000 - yuan level might be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1] Aluminum - Overseas shutdown news boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods and strips slightly reduced inventory. Downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It might show an oscillating trend in the short - term [1][2] Zinc - This week, zinc prices oscillated. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The supply of domestic mines would be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee decreased significantly, but the smelter's profit was still okay. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the Middle East had high growth. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the overseas LME inventory was at a low level. The export window was open. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and price - support motivation from the policy side, short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered [6] Stainless - steel - The steel mill's production increased slightly in October. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remained stable. Inventory was at a high level. With price - support motivation from the Indonesian policy side, short - term high - selling opportunities could be considered [6][7] Lead - This week, lead prices oscillated at a high level. The scrap rate was weak year - on - year, but the recovery of recycling profit encouraged resumption of production. The supply of refined lead and recycled lead was tight from late September, and the current resumption of recycled lead production had alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The battery's production rate increased by 1.4% this week, but the finished - product inventory increased, and demand was expected to weaken. It was expected that lead prices would maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, between 17,300 - 17,700 yuan [8][9] Tin - This week, the center of tin prices increased. The processing fee of tin ore remained low, with limited upward space. The supply marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance ended. Overseas production was still uncertain. Demand was mainly rigid, and the downstream's acceptable price increased. The short - term fundamentals were okay, and it was recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it was recommended to buy near the cost line [12] Industrial Silicon - The production of the leading enterprise in Xinjiang was stable. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon were expected to be in a slightly loose balance. In the short - term, prices were expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, they were expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Carbonate Lithium - Affected by the expected lithium - battery demand and market bullish sentiment, carbonate lithium prices were strong. The lithium ore was in short supply, and the upstream inventory decreased significantly. The downstream inventory was relatively sufficient, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. In the long - term, the pattern change might occur in 1 - 2 years [18]