展望后市，中泰证券认为，政策面、基本面多重因素交织，有望提振资金信心，建议继续关注有色金属 与科技成长两大主线。 热门板块 1、煤炭板块延续强势 10月20日，A股早盘震荡反弹，截至9:31，沪指涨0.65%，深成指涨1.38%，创业板指上涨2.23%。 盘面上，煤炭板块延续上周强势，大有能源7天6板；CPO等算力硬件股反弹，中际旭创涨超6%；卫星 导航板块拉升，天奥电子、星网宇达双双涨停。下跌方面，贵金属、银行、工业金属等板块飘绿。 1、兴业证券：以我为主，布局内部的确定性 兴业证券认为，往后看，海外扰动影响最大的时刻或正在过去，后续美联储议息会议、APEC峰会也将 提供顺风环境。而国内也即将进入党的二十届四中全会、三季报景气验证等积极因素密集催化的阶段， 市场对于景气主线的共识也有望再一次凝聚。后续应对思路仍是以我为主，布局内部的确定性。景气和 产业趋势仍是核心。当前重视军工、国产算力产业链为代表的自主可控、"十五五"规划受益品种，以及 创新药、北美算力链、游戏、电池等三季报景气品种。 2、中泰证券：政策面、基本面多重因素交织，有望提振资金信心 中泰证券认为，政策面，二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国煤炭开采行业供需态势分析及市场运行潜力报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年4月中国煤及褐煤进口数量为3783万吨，同比下降16.4%，进口金额为 27.88亿美元，同比下降38.7%，2025年4月中国煤及褐煤出口数量为72万吨，同比增长29.8%，出口金额 为1.06亿美元，同比下降7.8%。 近一年中国煤及褐煤进口情况统计图 近一年中国煤及褐煤出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Views - The coal price at northern ports has significantly increased due to limited supply from railway maintenance and temperature differences between northern and southern regions, with the price reaching 748 RMB/ton on October 17, up 39 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][13] - The supply side remains constrained, with production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increasing slightly, while demand from coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends [4][13] - The overall market sentiment is supported by high cash flow and profitability of leading coal companies, with a focus on maintaining a strong dividend yield [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal at northern ports has risen significantly, with specific increases in pit prices in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [4][14] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region has increased by 0.31 percentage points, while coal supply remains tight due to railway maintenance [4][19] - Coastal power plants' daily consumption has increased, while inland power plants have seen a decrease [4][22] 2. Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal has increased by 2.05 percentage points, with some recovery in production following holiday shutdowns [5][38] - The price of main coking coal at ports has risen to 1,710 RMB/ton, up 80 RMB/ton week-on-week [5][39] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises have decreased, indicating a tightening supply [5][46] 3. Coke - The supply side for coke has tightened, with production rates declining slightly due to cost pressures and maintenance [6][49] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased, reflecting challenges in the market [6][54] - Coke inventories at independent coking plants have decreased, indicating stable demand [6][62] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with limited supply due to production constraints in certain regions [6][66] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report highlights several key companies with strong investment potential, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, recommending a "Buy" rating for most [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal inventory remains at a high level, with a slight decrease in residential electricity demand in southern regions. However, short-term supply constraints and expectations for winter coal storage in northern regions suggest that coal prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of insurance capital inflow, with premium income showing positive growth concentrated towards leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets and high dividend assets leads to a preference for resource stocks [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week from October 13 to October 17, the port thermal coal spot price increased by 39 CNY/ton, closing at 748 CNY/ton. The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.4857 million tons, a decrease of 100,300 tons or 5.30% from the previous week. The supply from production areas remained stable, although local rainfall caused a temporary reduction in coal output, leading to a decrease in port supply [1][11] - The average daily coal outflow from the Bohai Rim ports was 1.6987 million tons, down by 186,000 tons or 9.87% from the previous week. The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was 23.8 million tons, an increase of 546,000 tons or 2.27% from the previous week [1][33] Price Trends - As of October 17, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Datong South Suburb increased by 75 CNY/ton to 630 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou rose by 80 CNY/ton to 950 CNY/ton. The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index increased by 3 CNY/ton to 680 CNY/ton [17][20] - The report also notes that the average domestic shipping cost increased by 9.67 CNY/ton to 43.05 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 28.96% [35] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on elastic targets in thermal coal, particularly those with low valuations, recommending companies such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [3][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Insights - India is signing more coal power procurement agreements to meet the growing electricity demand, with over 17GW of coal power capacity entering various stages of contract processes [2][3]. - The report highlights the expected increase in coal power capacity in India from 210GW to 307GW by 2035, a growth of 46% [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of certain companies in the coal sector, recommending investments in companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, and Jin Control Coal [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes a significant increase in coal prices, with European ARA port coal prices rising to $96 per ton (+6.19%) and Newcastle port coal prices reaching $111.45 per ton (+6.60%) [1][34]. - India plans to sign at least 7GW of coal power procurement agreements in the coming months to address peak electricity demand [2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, Jin Control Coal, and China Shenhua, with a focus on companies showing strong performance and potential for growth [3][6]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy Chemical for future growth opportunities [3]. Industry Trends - The coal mining industry is expected to experience a rebound in demand, driven by India's increasing reliance on coal for electricity generation [3][37]. - The report indicates that despite the push for renewable energy, coal will remain a significant part of India's energy mix for the foreseeable future [3].

Core Points - Shanxi Coal International (山煤国际) closed at 10.96 yuan on October 17, 2025, up 6.1% from the previous week's 10.33 yuan [1] - The company's market capitalization is currently 21.728 billion yuan, ranking 13th in the coal mining sector and 844th among all A-shares [1] Company Announcements - The third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders was held on October 17, 2025, with 631 attendees representing 1,164,045,905 shares, accounting for 58.7174% of the total voting shares [1][3] - The meeting approved two resolutions regarding amendments to the company's articles of association, both receiving over two-thirds approval from the voting rights present [1][3] - Beijing Jindu Law Firm confirmed the legality and validity of the meeting's convening, voting procedures, and results [3] Company Structure - The company is a permanent stock company with a registered capital of 1.982 billion yuan, located in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province [2] - The governance structure includes a shareholders' meeting, board of directors, supervisory board, and party committee, with the board consisting of 11 members, including 4 independent directors [2] - The articles of association prioritize cash dividends for profit distribution and outline procedures for mergers, divisions, dissolution, and liquidation [2]

Group 1: Report's Overall Information - Report Title: 3Y within General Credit Bonds and 3 - 5Y Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds Spread Continues to Compress - Credit Spread Weekly Tracking 20251018 [1] - Report Date: October 18, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Special Report [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Interest rates are oscillating, and credit bonds continue to recover. The spreads of 1Y medium - low grade and 3Y medium - high grade bonds have significantly compressed. Credit spreads have generally converged, with short - duration spreads having a larger convergence amplitude. [2][5] - Urban investment bond spreads have generally declined by 4 - 5BP, with spreads of different external ratings and administrative levels all showing a downward trend. [2][9] - Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have still increased. The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds have declined, while those of mixed - ownership and private real estate bonds have increased. The spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds have mostly declined. [2][20] - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have all declined this week, and the spreads of 3 - 5Y bonds have continued to recover, with high - grade varieties performing better. [2][31] - The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has increased, while the excess spread of 5Y urban investment bonds has decreased. [2][34] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Interest rates oscillate, and credit bonds continue to recover, with the spreads of 1Y medium - low grade and 3Y medium - high grade bonds significantly compressing - Interest rate bonds have maintained an oscillating pattern. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 1BP, 2BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively compared to last week, while the yield of 10Y bonds has decreased by 1BP. [2][5] - Most credit bond yields have declined, and credit spreads have significantly converged. Short - duration credit spreads have a larger convergence amplitude. [2][5] - In terms of rating spreads, the spreads of different grades and terms have shown different changes. In terms of term spreads, the spreads of different grades and terms have also shown different trends. [5] II. Urban investment bond spreads have generally declined by 4 - 5BP - The credit spreads of external rating AAA platforms have generally declined by 4BP compared to last week, while those of AA+ and AA have both declined by 5BP. Spreads of platforms in different regions have different degrees of decline. [2][9] - In terms of administrative levels, the credit spreads of provincial platforms have generally declined by 4BP, while those of municipal and district - county platforms have both declined by 5BP. Spreads of platforms in different regions have different degrees of decline. [2][17] III. Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have still increased - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds have declined by 4BP, while those of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have increased by 46BP, and those of private real estate bonds have increased by 1BP. The spreads of some real estate companies have different degrees of change. [2][20] - The spreads of all grades of coal bonds have declined by 4BP; the spreads of AAA steel bonds have declined by 4BP, and those of AA+ have declined by 5BP; the spreads of AAA chemical bonds have declined by 4BP, and those of AA+ have declined by 5BP. The spreads of some companies have different degrees of decline. [2][20] IV. The spreads of 3 - 5Y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds continue to recover - The yields of 1Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 1BP, and perpetual bonds have remained roughly flat, with credit spreads declining by 2 - 3BP. [2][31] - The yields of 3Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 3 - 4BP, and the yields of perpetual bonds have declined by 2 - 3BP, with spreads compressing by 5 - 7BP. [2][31] - The yields of 5Y Tier 2 capital bonds of all grades have declined by 2 - 3BP, and the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds have declined by 3 - 5BP, with spreads declining by 3 - 6BP. [2][31] V. The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has increased, while the excess spread of 5Y urban investment bonds has decreased - The excess spread of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds has increased by 0.99BP compared to last week to 15.51BP, at the 41.31% quantile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds has remained flat compared to last week at 12.39BP, at the 25.90% quantile since 2015. [2][34] - The excess spread of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds has increased by 0.15BP to 4.97BP, at the 3.01% quantile. The excess spread of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds has declined by 3.39BP to 11.08BP, at the 16.73% quantile. [2][34] VI. Credit spread database compilation instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. [39] - The calculation methods for various spreads and the sample selection criteria for industrial and urban investment bonds are provided. [41]

Market Overview - On October 17, a total of 44 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit, with 37 stocks hitting the limit after excluding 7 ST stocks, resulting in an overall limit rate of 68.75% [1] Top Performing Stocks - Huaten Technology had the highest limit order volume with 340,400 hands and a limit order fund exceeding 440 million yuan [2][3] - Other notable stocks include Pingtan Development and Yuanda Holdings, with limit order volumes of 290,500 hands and 281,300 hands respectively [2][3] - In terms of consecutive limit days, Yuanda Holdings achieved 4 consecutive limits, while ST Xinhua Jin and Sanfu Co. had 3 consecutive limits [2] Significant Announcements - On the evening of October 16, Huaten Technology announced plans to acquire 100% of Huayi Microelectronics through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, positioning itself as a leader in power device R&D, packaging, testing, and reliability verification [2] Sector Highlights - The Fujian local stocks saw multiple limit hits, particularly in the context of the Fujian Marine Economy Industry Cooperation Innovation Development Conference, which signed 50 major marine economy projects with a total investment of 99.15 billion yuan [3][4] - Pingtan Development operates nearly 900,000 acres of forest land, leading the industry in Fujian [5] - Daya Energy focuses on coal mining and wholesale, while Antai Group leverages its regional coal resources for its coking business [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - Huabang Health is positioned among the top players in the dermatological clinical medication field, while Chenxin Pharmaceutical emphasizes a dual approach of independent and collaborative innovation in drug development [7] Institutional Activity - Tianji Co. saw net purchases exceeding 200 million yuan from institutions, with Dongxin Peace, Tianji Co., and Pingtan Development being the top three in net buying amounts [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2][39]. Core Insights - The long-term trend for coal prices is expected to be upward with fluctuations, driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher prices for raw materials and fuels [6][39]. - The average pre-tax profit margin for the coal mining industry from 1999 to 2025 is 10%, with a fluctuation range of -3% to 25%, indicating reasonable returns [36]. Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Over the past 30 years, the price of North Port 5500 kcal thermal coal has shown an upward trend with increasing volatility, with price ranges shifting from 200-400 CNY/ton (1995-2005) to 400-1200 CNY/ton (2015-2025) [10][7]. Cost Structure Analysis - The coal industry's selling price is composed of total costs and pre-tax net profit. Total costs include sales costs, taxes (mainly resource tax), and period expenses [14][11]. - The average unit operating cost for major coal companies increased from 181 CNY/ton in 2016-2020 to 255 CNY/ton in 2024, reflecting an increase of nearly 80 CNY/ton [15][39]. Tax and Fee Changes - Resource tax rates have been raised in major coal-producing regions, with rates reaching the maximum of 10% in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, which could increase costs by 10-20 CNY/ton if rates rise by 2-3 percentage points [32][39]. Company-Specific Cost Increases - For China Shenhua, the unit sales cost increased by 56 CNY/ton in 2024 compared to the 2016-2020 average, primarily due to rising labor costs and other expenses [20][18]. - Zhengzhou Coal Electricity's unit cost rose by 129 CNY/ton, significantly impacted by labor costs and maintenance expenses, with production volume decreasing by 35% compared to 2016 [31][29]. Profitability and Market Outlook - The report indicates that the coal price will continue to have upward pressure due to persistent cost increases and government taxation policies, despite potential market fluctuations [39][6].

Core Viewpoint - On October 17, the A-share market saw a total of 44 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market activity and investor interest in specific sectors [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The commodity trading sector, represented by Yuanda Holdings, achieved a four-day limit up streak [1] - The coal mining sector also showed significant performance with Dayou Energy recording a four-day limit up [1]