Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at Yulin was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week. The FOB price for thermal coal at Newcastle, Australia, was 67 USD/ton, down 2.14% [2]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year. The inventory levels at independent coking plants and sample steel mills are currently at low levels [4][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, specifically China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with China Shenhua's EPS forecast for 2025 at 2.5 CNY and a PE ratio of 16. The investment rating for China Shenhua is "Accumulate" [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at the pit in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port were 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year, indicating a high level for the same period [4][53]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a cost support level that could lead to a rebound if favorable policies are introduced [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The CITIC Coal Index is at 3,258.46 points, down 0.54%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.54 percentage points, ranking 23rd among CITIC sector performance [2][76] - The coal market is currently buyer-driven, with procurement strategies and intensity determining coal price movements. The upcoming peak summer demand and potential price stabilization policies are critical factors to monitor [10][37] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market is stable with slight adjustments. Production in major coal-producing areas is tightening slightly, while downstream demand remains primarily for essential needs. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range due to limited demand from power plants [11][13][14] - **Coking Coal**: The market continues to decline, with prices under pressure from weak demand and high inventory levels. The report emphasizes the need to monitor production cuts from coking coal enterprises as prices approach marginal costs [10][40] - **Coke**: Profit margins are shrinking, and procurement remains focused on essential needs. The overall production of coke is still increasing, but market sentiment is negative due to declining steel prices [58][75] Investment Strategy - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their potential for recovery. It also suggests monitoring companies like Qinfa and Xinji Energy for their performance amidst current challenges [10][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by high inventory levels and limited upward momentum due to the stable increase in hydropower during the flood season. However, as the peak summer demand period approaches, there is potential for coal prices to rise further [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and the positive growth in premium income, which is increasingly concentrated among leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets and the high levels of dividend assets suggest a shift towards equity allocation, particularly favoring resource stocks [2][35] - The report recommends focusing on elastic targets in the thermal coal sector, specifically highlighting low-valuation stocks such as Haohua Energy and suggesting attention to Guanghui Energy [2][35] Summary by Sections Current Market Review - From May 26 to May 30, the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.786 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons week-on-week, representing a growth of 1.59%. The average daily outflow was 2.043 million tons, up by 237,100 tons, a rise of 13.13%. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 30.572 million tons, down by 1.534 million tons, a decline of 4.78% [1][25][30] Price Trends - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the Dazhou South Suburb was 506 CNY/ton, up by 32 CNY/ton. The price at Inner Mongolia Chifeng remained stable at 380 CNY/ton, while the price at Yanzhou increased by 140 CNY/ton to 850 CNY/ton. The port price for thermal coal remained stable at 611 CNY/ton [16][18] - The thermal coal price index in the Bohai Rim remained unchanged at 669 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index also held steady at 665 CNY/ton [18] Inventory and Shipping - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim increased to 82, up by 20 vessels, a rise of 33.18%. The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 30.572 million tons, down by 1.534 million tons, a decline of 4.78% [30][31] Shipping Costs - The average shipping cost on domestic routes increased by 0.24 CNY/ton to 35.83 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 0.68% [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to weak demand from major buyers like China and India. The production target set by the government of 735 million tons may still be achievable, but reaching the historical high of 835 million tons in 2024 is nearly impossible. In Q1 2025, Indonesia's coal production was only 172 million tons, with exports down 3.88% year-on-year to 126 million tons, resulting in a revenue drop of 16.86% to $7.799 billion [2][3] - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021. The market is now aware of the price decline, and it is believed that the bottom of the price cycle is near. Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and focus on the fundamental attributes of the industry [2] - Domestic coal companies are facing increasing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - Indonesia's coal production is projected to be difficult to reach 800 million tons in 2025 due to weak demand from major buyers [2] - In Q1 2025, coal production was 172 million tons, with exports down 3.88% year-on-year [2] - The domestic coal supply has significantly decreased, with a 25% drop in DMO coal supply compared to the previous year [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, among others. The report emphasizes the importance of performance in stock selection [3][7] Price Trends - Coal prices at Newcastle port (6000K) are stable at $218.9 per ton, while South African Richards Bay coal futures are at $88.40 per ton, and European ARA port coal prices are at $91.00 per ton [2][34]

Group 1: Xinhecheng - Xinhecheng introduced its production and sales status of Vitamin E and methionine, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons for Vitamin E, expected to reach full production and sales by 2024 [1] - The company has a solid methionine annual production capacity of 300,000 tons, with a collaboration project with Sinopec for 180,000 tons of liquid methionine set to begin trial production [1] - The company plans to invest in a headquarters in Hangzhou and has several projects under development, including a nylon new materials project in Tianjin with a total investment of 10 billion yuan [1] Group 2: China Coal Energy - The price of coking coal has remained stable at approximately 1,100 yuan per ton in the first two quarters of the year [2] - The company expects its annual coal production to remain consistent with last year's output, despite a significant month-on-month decline in domestic raw coal production in April due to falling coal prices [2] - China Coal Energy is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a stable cash dividend ratio expected for the year [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Interest rate adjustments have led to a divergence in the performance of credit bonds, with the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds widening, while long - term credit bonds have shown strong performance. The spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with weaker platforms performing well. Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. The excess spreads of 3 - year industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds have compressed, while the spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds have rebounded [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Adjustments Lead to Divergence in Credit Bond Performance, with Widening Spreads of Medium - and Short - Term High - Grade Bonds This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds have slightly rebounded. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 2BP, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds have increased by 1BP. The yields of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds have adjusted, while most other varieties have continued to decline. Credit spreads have mostly declined, with the largest decline in 7Y varieties, and the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade bonds have widened. Rating spreads and term spreads have mostly declined [3][6]. 3.2 Narrow Fluctuations in Urban Investment Bond Spreads, with Good Performance of Weaker Platforms This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with some differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of externally rated AAA - level platforms have increased by 1BP, those of AA + - level platforms have remained basically flat, and those of AA - level platforms have decreased by 1BP. When classified by administrative level, the spreads of provincial - level platforms have increased by 1BP, while those of municipal and district - level platforms have remained basically flat [3][10][17]. 3.3 Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decline, while Coal Bonds and Private Real Estate Bonds See an Increase in Spreads Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. This week, the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate bonds have increased by 0 - 1BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have decreased by 2BP, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 40BP. The spreads of AAA - level coal bonds have increased by 9BP, those of AA + - level bonds have remained flat, and those of AA - level coal bonds have increased by 1BP. The spreads of steel and chemical bonds at all levels have declined by 0 - 3BP [3][15]. 3.4 Yields of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds Mostly Rise, with Compressed Spreads of 5 - Year Medium - and Low - Grade Varieties This week, the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. Specifically, the yields of 1Y AAA - and AA + commercial bank Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 4BP, and the yields of AA - level bonds have increased by 2BP, with spreads increasing by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y Tier 2 capital bonds at all levels have increased by 4 - 6BP, and the spreads have increased by 2 - 4BP. The yields of 5Y AAA - and AA + Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads have decreased by 0 - 1BP, while the yields of AA - level bonds have decreased by 1BP, and the spreads have compressed by 3BP [27][28]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of 3 - Year Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Compress, while the Spreads of 5 - Year Urban Investment Bonds Rebound This week, the excess spreads of 3 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 2.18BP to 9.53BP, at the 11.52% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 5 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have remained flat at 9.22BP, at the 10.27% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 3 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 1.12BP to 4.31BP, at the 0.37% percentile. The excess spreads of 5 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have increased by 1.37BP to 10.30BP, at the 9.54% percentile [31]. 3.6 Explanation of the Credit Spread Database Compilation The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical percentiles are calculated since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical percentiles also calculated since the beginning of 2015. Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are also provided [38].

Group 1 - The domestic chemical industry is currently facing market turbulence from both upstream supply and downstream demand, with international oil prices dropping nearly 15% this year and OPEC initiating an aggressive production increase plan [1][3] - The U.S. tariff policy has added uncertainty to the market, leading many companies to adopt futures hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [1][5] Group 2 - OPEC has decided to continue its large-scale production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month, which may lead to further declines in oil prices [3] - As of May 27, hedge funds have aggressively bet on falling oil prices, with net short positions in Brent crude oil increasing by 16,922 contracts to 130,019 contracts, the highest level since October of the previous year [3] Group 3 - The coal industry is also experiencing a downturn, with domestic thermal coal prices dropping to 618 yuan per ton, a decrease of over 150 yuan per ton or 19.7% since the beginning of the year, marking a four-year low [3] - From January to April, profits in the domestic oil and gas extraction industry fell by 6.9%, while profits in the coal mining and washing industry plummeted by 48.9% [4] Group 4 - The price volatility of chemical products, such as ethylene glycol, has increased significantly, with prices dropping nearly 18% to below 4,000 yuan per ton after the U.S. announced "reciprocal tariffs" [5] - Companies are increasingly using futures hedging to manage price risks, with some adopting a three-dimensional risk management framework that includes spot trading, futures hedging, and over-the-counter options [6] Group 5 - The ethylene glycol industry is facing overcapacity, with domestic production capacity increasing by 165.5% from 1,063 million tons in 2019 to 2,822.5 million tons by the end of 2024, leading to intensified competition and compressed profit margins [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission has taken notice of the "involution-style" competition in the industry, emphasizing the importance of capacity clearing and cost control for survival [8] Group 6 - The introduction of futures tools has transformed the ethylene glycol industry, with companies increasingly adopting basis pricing as a key pricing model to respond flexibly to market fluctuations [9] - The industry has entered a new phase, utilizing innovative trading models to meet diverse risk management needs and achieve targeted sales prices [9]

Group 1: OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC has agreed to a large-scale production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, marking the third consecutive month of such announcements, which may lead to further declines in oil prices [1][2] - As of May 27, hedge funds have significantly increased their short positions on Brent crude oil, with net short positions rising by 16,922 contracts to 130,019 contracts, the highest level since October of the previous year [2] Group 2: Impact on Energy and Coal Industries - International oil prices have seen a decline of nearly 15% this year, raising concerns about the future profitability of the oil extraction industry, with major oil companies expected to report a 29% decrease in net profits for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [2] - The domestic coal industry is also facing challenges, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping to 618 RMB/ton, a decrease of over 150 RMB/ton or 19.7% since the beginning of the year, marking a four-year low [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry and Pricing Strategies - The chemical industry is experiencing significant price volatility due to fluctuating raw material costs and uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased demand for effective price risk management [4][5] - The price of ethylene glycol, a key chemical product, has seen fluctuations from a high of 4,867 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of below 4,000 RMB/ton, reflecting an 18% drop, before rebounding to 4,557 RMB/ton [4] Group 4: Risk Management Practices - Companies are increasingly adopting futures hedging strategies to mitigate the risks associated with price volatility, with a focus on optimizing procurement costs through basis pricing [5][6] - The ethylene glycol industry is transitioning to a new trading model, utilizing options and futures to manage risks effectively, with a growing emphasis on basis pricing as a key pricing strategy [7]