铜周报 2025/08/16 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 波动下降，等待进一步驱动 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费小幅回升，粗铜加工费环比持平，冷料供应边际平稳。消息面，智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）表示，埃尔特尼恩 特（EI Teniente）铜矿的冶炼厂已经重启运行。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加0.7万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.4至8.6万吨，LME库存微增至15.6万吨，COMEX库存增加0.3至24.2万吨。上 海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货180元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水93.8美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价下滑。海关总署数据显示，2025年7月我国未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为48万吨，环比增加 1.6万吨，同比增加9.6%，1-7月累计进口量为3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Northern Copper Industry (000737) demonstrates a positive transformation from traditional copper industry to a technology-driven enterprise, showcasing growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with a focus on resource barriers, technological upgrades, and innovative layouts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.811 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.81% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 487 million yuan, up 5.85% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 477 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.99% [1] - Excluding the asset impairment provision of 82.3098 million yuan, the net profit growth rate would be even more significant [1] Group 2: Business Segments and Innovations - The precious metals business generated revenue of 2.529 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 52.04%, driven by high prices of gold and silver amid inflation and industrial demand [2] - The sulfuric acid business saw revenue soar to 102 million yuan, a staggering increase of 197.33%, with a gross margin of 35.5%, contributing to the overall improvement in gross margin by 0.89% [2] - Research and development expenses reached 26.463 million yuan, up 48.60%, indicating a strong emphasis on technological innovation [2] Group 3: Resource and Technological Integration - The company owns the Copper Mine Yu Mine, with proven copper ore reserves of 213 million tons and a metal content of 1.2987 million tons, providing a solid resource foundation [3] - Ongoing deep resource exploration has added 10.3718 million tons of industrial ore resources, with a metal content of 869,557 tons, enhancing long-term production capacity [3] - The introduction of innovative mining techniques has brought underground mining costs close to open-pit mining levels, showcasing industry-leading economic indicators [3] Group 4: Integrated Industry Chain - The company has established an integrated industry chain from mining, smelting to deep processing, effectively mitigating external raw material price fluctuations [4] - The "80,000 tons comprehensive recovery project" has achieved stable operational indicators, while the "high-performance copper strip and foil project" is progressing well, with 53.24% completion [4] - Despite fluctuations in copper prices, the company maintains revenue and profit growth, demonstrating operational resilience [4] Group 5: Emerging Business and Capacity Release - The copper foil and copper-clad laminate projects are progressing rapidly, with expected annual sales revenue exceeding 3.2 billion yuan and net profit of 371 million yuan upon reaching full production [5] - The "80,000 tons copper concentrate comprehensive recovery project" has shown stable performance since trial production, reinforcing the company's profitability in copper concentrate processing [5] - Overall, the company's performance reflects long-term resource reserves and technological upgrades, alongside short-term explosive growth from emerging businesses [6]

Core Insights - Northern Copper Industry (000737.SZ) reported a total operating revenue of 12.811 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 350 million yuan compared to the same period last year, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.81% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 487 million yuan, up by 26.92 million yuan from the previous year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.85% [1] - The company experienced a negative net cash flow from operating activities amounting to -878 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - The latest asset-liability ratio stands at 66.82%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points from the same period last year [3] - The gross profit margin is reported at 8.98%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is recorded at 7.46% [3] Earnings and Shareholder Information - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.26 yuan [4] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.68 times, and the inventory turnover ratio is 1.64 times [5] - The number of shareholders is 141,000, with the top ten shareholders holding a total of 1.182 billion shares, accounting for 62.04% of the total share capital [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Northern Copper Industry, reporting a revenue increase and a slight rise in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1] - Northern Copper Industry's revenue for the first half of 2025 is approximately 12.811 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.81% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is about 487 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.85% [1] - The basic earnings per share is reported at 0.256 yuan, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 1.54% [1] - As of the report date, Northern Copper Industry has a market capitalization of 22.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The article also mentions a potential acquisition by Huakang Co., which raises concerns due to the financial troubles of a major customer of the acquisition target, questioning the sustainability of revenue contributions [1]

格隆汇8月15日丨北方铜业(000737.SZ)公布2025年半年度报告，上半年公司实现营业收入128.11亿元， 同比增长2.81%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润4.87亿元，同比增长5.85%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润4.77亿元，同比增长6.99%；基本每股收益0.256元。 ...

北方铜业公告，2025年上半年营业收入128.11亿元，同比增长2.81%。净利润4.87亿元，同比增长 5.85%。公司计划不派发现金红利，不送红股，不以公积金转增股本。 ...

沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情有所回暖，收盘微跌0.08%。美国PPI走高打压降息预期，美指走强形成 一定压制，不过铜市供需面暂时有支撑，跌幅十分有限。 此前美国7月CPI的温和令市场对于美联储9月降息押注大幅升温，甚至有降息50个基点的猜测，然而昨 日公布的7月PPI意外走高，大超市场预期，数据公布后市场虽然继续押注9月降息，但降息50个基点的 可能性基本被排除，主因市场担忧物价压力抬头，隔夜美指反弹，沪铜走势略显承压。 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，通胀令降息预期有波动，未来仍有海外美国经济逐步走弱，国内反内卷 驱动行情放缓，物流回流潜在过剩。几个因素不利于铜价持续上涨，且有向下压力。未来需观察消费改 善情况，若持续弱于季节性则支撑能力有限。 （文华综合） 之前海外矿端干扰较多，国内铜精矿加工费反弹有限，今日智利国家铜业公司称埃尔特尼恩特铜矿冶炼 厂已重启运行。机构统计的7月国内精炼铜产量稳中有增，不过受原料端偏紧的限制，对于后续精炼铜 产量有下滑的预期，不过仍需落实。最近LME铜库存仍然呈现震荡回升姿态，不过国内精铜社会库存 低位徘徊，现货升水仍然偏高，继续为铜价提供支撑。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish. For arbitrage, it is recommended to hold off. For options, the strategy is to short put at 77,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current low domestic TC price makes copper prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. Combined with the increased market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the strong performance of precious metal prices, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips for copper operations, with the suggested buying range between 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [8] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 78,950 yuan/ton, a -0.54% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,760 yuan/ton and closed at 78,940 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remained strong. SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,320 - 79,550 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 - 280 yuan/ton to the current contract, and an average premium of 210 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. Considering the approaching delivery date and downstream stocking demand on Friday, the spot premium is expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: In the US employment market, the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1,953,000, also lower than expected. US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years. The stronger - than - expected employment and inflation data may put downward pressure on copper prices [3] - **Mine End**: Australia's second - largest gold miner is seeking to increase its investment in copper, with the potential to raise the proportion of copper business revenue to 40% from the current 25% [4] - **Smelting and Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of cathode copper by 24 domestic sample enterprises was 7.1346 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.78%. In July, the output was 1.0751 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.84% and a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. An Indian copper smelter with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons has applied to LME to become a listed copper delivery brand [5] - **Consumption**: The rapid construction of AI data centers may further tighten the global copper market, potentially leading to a supply shortage of 6 million tons by 2035. The copper demand in this industry is expected to average about 400,000 tons per year in the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028 [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 875 tons to 155,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,634 tons to 24,434 tons. On August 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.256 million tons, a change of - 60,000 tons from the previous week [7]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices showed narrow fluctuations, opening at $9777.5 per ton and currently at $9776.5 per ton, with a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - On August 14, LME copper futures had an opening price of $9795.0, a highest price of $9836.5, a lowest price of $9714.0, and a closing price of $9768.5, reflecting a decrease of 0.13% [1] - The current ratio of electrolytic copper spot prices between Shanghai and London is 8.1, indicating a profit/loss of 44.55 yuan per ton for imports, compared to a loss of 75.3 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The El Teniente copper smelter of Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, has resumed operations [1] - As of August 14, LME registered copper warrants totaled 144,800 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,050 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; total copper inventory stands at 155,850 tons, down by 25 tons [1]

Group 1 - Hudbay Minerals dropped over 4%, while Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper, and Ero Copper fell more than 2% [1] - The Chilean National Copper Corporation significantly revised down its copper production growth forecast for 2025, now expecting a 1.5% increase compared to last year's figures, which is only half of the growth predicted in May [1] - The downward revision in production growth is attributed to a decline in output from BHP's Escondida mine (the world's largest copper mine) and the Collahuasi mine operated by Anglo American and Glencore [1]