证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 19 年 月 日 食品饮料 2025 年秋糖点评：白酒如期筑底，大众品关注成长与复苏 投资建议：1、白酒：秋糖动销如期筑底，产品渠道积极变革，中长期配置价值凸 显，短期看弹性、中长期看龙头：1）短期边际变化弹性标的：泸州老窖、港股珍 酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、水井坊、老白干酒等。2）中长期经营质量龙头标的： 贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、今世缘、迎驾贡酒等。2、大众品：Q3 线下快消承压，健康化引领创新机遇，统一 9 月营收稳增，重点关注优秀成长个 股：1）高景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、百润股份、燕京啤酒、珠江 啤酒、万辰集团、三只松鼠、有友食品等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏 改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健 康、百龙创园、安井食品、立高食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：秋糖如期筑底，关注边际改善与风格切换。本周南京秋糖收官，1）从参展 企业看，受地理因素影响，区域名酒相较于全国性名酒相对更活跃，酱酒参展企业 减少，浓香和清香企业相对积极；2） ...

Core Viewpoint - Wahaha is experiencing significant changes in its sales and distribution strategy due to the resignation of its leader, Zong Fuli, and the emergence of new brands like "Wah Xiaozong" and "Wah Xiaozhi" [3][24][27]. Group 1: Sales and Distribution Changes - Traditionally, by mid-October, Wahaha's sales personnel would have received sales tasks and begun discussions with distributors for the next year [1]. - This year, many distributors have reported a lack of communication from Wahaha, with most learning about the company's situation through online news [2]. - The majority of distributors are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to uncertainties surrounding Wahaha's future product offerings [5][6]. Group 2: Brand Transition and New Entrants - Zong Fuli has resigned from all positions at Wahaha Group to focus on her new brand, "Wah Xiaozong," which is set to replace the Wahaha brand starting in 2026 [3][27]. - New brands such as "Wah Xiaozhi" and "Zong Shifu" are emerging, with Wah Xiaozhi already signing over 100 clients [7][8]. - The market is seeing increased competition among these new brands, which may impact Wahaha's existing distributor relationships [24][36]. Group 3: Distributor Concerns and Financial Implications - Distributors are hesitant to pay guarantee deposits due to fears of product availability and potential risks associated with the transition to new brands [4][16][22]. - Some distributors have reported a significant reduction in the guarantee deposit amounts they are willing to pay compared to previous years, reflecting their cautious stance [20][22]. - The uncertainty surrounding product supply and brand recognition is leading many distributors to reconsider their commitments to Wahaha [44][49]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - Distributors express a strong preference for the established Wahaha brand over the new entrants, citing brand recognition and consumer loyalty as critical factors [37][39]. - The local beverage market is described as stable for Wahaha, with significant challenges for new brands to gain market share [39][41]. - If Wahaha experiences supply disruptions, competitors are expected to quickly fill the market gap, potentially jeopardizing Wahaha's market position [50][51].

美股市场风格突变。 在多重不确定因素的扰动下，美股市场本周遭遇动荡，恐慌指数VIX周五盘中直线拉升，一度飙升至28.99，创出今年 4月底以来的最高水平。 有分析认为，市场波动加剧的主要原因是贸易紧张局势的再度升级，贸易问题仍将是下周市场的关键因素之一。 另外，美联储的降息路径也持续影响金融市场，投资者预期，美联储将在10月议息会议上再次降息25个基点。根据日 程安排，美联储将于10月21日举办支付创新会议，汇聚行业专家讨论稳定币、人工智能和代币化。美联储还将于10月 24日举行公开会议，讨论压力测试的改革问题。 美股的重大考验 在贸易政策不确定性上升、区域性银行"爆雷"、AI泡沫质疑加剧的背景下，美股市场本周遭遇剧烈动荡。 美东时间周五，衡量市场波动性的芝商所（CBOE）恐慌指数VIX一度飙升至28.99，创出今年4月底以来的最高水平。 尽管收盘时回落至了21附近，但依然位于年内高位。 恐慌指数VIX，通过计算标普500指数期权的隐含波动率，以反映市场对未来30天波动性的预期。据CBOE全球市场数 据，投资者正大量买入VIX飙升至47.5和50时可获利的期权合约。 GammaRoad资本合伙公司首席投资官J ...

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is experiencing significant volatility due to multiple uncertainties, including escalating trade tensions and the potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][4]. Market Volatility - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged to 28.99, the highest level since April, indicating increased market anxiety [2][4]. - Investors are buying options that profit when VIX rises to 47.5 and 50, reflecting a growing concern about market volatility [6]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment, characterized by high valuations, necessitates caution regarding new risk triggers [6][7]. Trade Tensions - The resurgence of trade tensions is identified as a primary factor contributing to market volatility, with President Trump indicating that proposed additional tariffs are "unsustainable" [7]. - The Trump administration is reportedly adjusting its tariff policies, including granting exemptions for numerous products amid ongoing trade negotiations [7]. Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown is affecting various federal departments, leading to potential economic implications [7]. - The shutdown has halted the release of official economic data, making upcoming corporate earnings reports critical for assessing the health of the US economy [8]. Federal Reserve Meetings - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a payment innovation meeting on October 21, focusing on topics such as stablecoins and the integration of traditional and decentralized finance [10]. - Market expectations indicate a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with a 94% chance of cumulative cuts by December [10][11]. Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major companies, including Tesla and Netflix, are set to release earnings reports, which will provide insights into corporate profitability amid the current economic climate [8].

Economic Data - China will release key economic indicators including GDP, real estate investment, and retail sales on October 20, with expectations of a slight decline in GDP growth rate for Q3 [7][8] - The expected year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment is -12.9% [3] - The industrial added value for September is anticipated to show a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] Events - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session from October 20 to 23 in Beijing [9] - The 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee's 18th meeting will take place from October 24 to 28 in Beijing [9] - The Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation conference on October 21 to discuss stablecoins, AI, and tokenization [9] Industry Conferences - The China Solid-State Battery Conference will be held from October 22 to 24 in Hefei, with participation from companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech [12] - The Low Altitude Economy Innovation Application and Standardization Promotion Conference is scheduled for October 24 in Beijing [12] - The 2025 Satellite Application Conference will take place from October 25 to 27 in Beijing [12] - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to hold a technology day on October 24, potentially unveiling a robot [13] Earnings Reports - Major companies set to report earnings include Tesla, IBM, Intel, Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble, with a focus on Tesla's Full Self-Driving progress and Intel's AI chip orders [14][15] - In China, companies like CATL, iFlytek, China Unicom, China Mobile, and China Telecom will also release their latest earnings reports [16] - CATL's solid-state battery technology roadmap may trigger a reevaluation of the value in the new energy industry if clear mass production signals are released [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, suggesting that the liquor sector is in a bottoming process while food companies should seek structural opportunities from the bottom up [6][8]. Core Views - The liquor industry is expected to experience a prolonged period of inventory digestion, with pressure on third-quarter reports anticipated to continue into the first quarter of 2026. The report emphasizes that stock price recovery may precede fundamental improvements [6][7]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential for structural growth driven by new consumption trends, recommending companies with strong long-term competitive advantages [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 0.86%, while the liquor segment rose by 1.78%. The sector ranked third among 31 sub-industries [5][29]. - Key stocks that performed well included Kweichow Moutai and Qingdao Beer, while stocks like Jinzi Ham faced significant declines [5]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report indicates that the liquor sector is facing significant adjustment pressures, with high channel inventories and weak demand expected to persist into the next year. The report anticipates that the sales performance during the 2026 Spring Festival will be under pressure due to high base effects from 2025 [7][29]. - The consumer goods sector is viewed positively, particularly in dairy and beer, with recommendations for stocks like Yili and Yanjing Beer, while also noting potential competition in the snack and beverage segments [8][29]. 3. Key Company Updates - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1750 RMB, down 15 RMB week-on-week, while Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 830 RMB. The report notes that the autumn sugar and wine fair had a subdued atmosphere, reflecting ongoing market challenges [7][19]. - The report highlights significant profit growth for companies like Chenguang Biotech, with a projected net profit increase of 344.05% to 401.55% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [9][10]. 4. Valuation Metrics - As of October 17, 2025, the food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 19.74x, with a premium rate of 24%. The liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 18.33x, with a premium rate of 15% [19][28]. 5. Sectoral Excess Returns - The food and beverage industry outperformed the Shenwan A index by 4.44 percentage points during the period from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with various sub-sectors showing different levels of performance [29][30].

宗馥莉的身份始终特殊。作为宗庆后的独生女，她手握集团40%股权，是公认的接班人。 但她接手的商业版图却布满荆棘：品牌资产分散在不同法人间，股权结构复杂，改革步履维艰。 "娃小宗"的诞生，恰是这种困境下的产物——一个试图在体系外开辟新航道的品牌。 对经销商而言，这远非简单的站队问题。 娃哈哈建立的渠道网络犹如毛细血管，深入中国市场的每一寸肌理。 失去经销资格，意味着切断多年的资源积累：稳定的利润来源、银行信贷支持、客户关系网络。 "没有人会拿全副身家去赌一个不确定的未来。"一位华东经销商直言。 即便认同宗馥莉的改革方向，在缺乏明确盈利前景的情况下，谨慎观望成为普遍选择。 市场表现更能说明问题。 2023年财报显示，娃哈哈年度营收已下滑至512亿元，较巅峰时期缩水超过270亿元。 凯度2024年上半年行业报告更指出，娃哈哈在饮料市场的份额已跌至第七，远落后于农夫山泉、元气森林等后起之秀。 宗馥莉自2021年执掌总经理以来，持续推进品牌年轻化战略。 但内部阻力不小，股权结构的制约让每次改革都像在钢丝上行走。 "品牌老化是表象，更深层的是渠道老化和思维固化。"一位行业观察者分析。 一份通牒正在全国经销网络掀起惊涛骇浪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trademark dispute between Wanglaoji and JDB (Jiangsu Da Bao) has escalated, reflecting the broader trend of Chinese brands seeking to expand internationally amidst a saturated domestic market [1][2][3] Trademark Dispute - The trademark battle reignited on September 30, 2025, with JDB claiming a significant victory in protecting its overseas "Wanglaoji" trademark rights [2] - Wanglaoji responded by asserting that JDB's claims were factually incorrect and emphasized its ownership of the "Wanglaoji" brand, registered in over 100 countries [2][3] - The core of the dispute lies in the territorial nature of trademark rights, with both companies engaged in legal battles over the ownership and validity of their respective trademarks [3][7] Market Expansion Strategies - Both companies are pursuing international market expansion, with JDB sponsoring cultural events and Wanglaoji launching products in Germany [4][5] - The competition for international trademark rights is seen as crucial for both brands' future growth and market positioning [4][5] Industry Context - The domestic herbal tea market is experiencing stagnation, with both companies facing competition from new beverage categories [8][9] - Wanglaoji reported a revenue of 64.99 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.38%, but this follows a significant decline in 2024 [8] - The overall herbal tea market in China has entered a period of stagnation, with a 10-year growth rate of approximately 20% since 2014 [8][9] Long-term Implications - The prolonged legal disputes have drained resources from both companies, hindering their ability to innovate and adapt to market changes [9][10] - Industry experts suggest that if both companies can reach a compromise, such as sharing trademark rights or dividing market territories, it could lead to mutual benefits and enhanced market presence [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of the domestic carbonated beverage brand "Dayao," which has recently been sold to an American investment giant, highlighting the challenges faced by local brands in maintaining their market presence and identity [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Dayao was once a prominent player in the domestic carbonated beverage market, gaining significant attention over the past three years [1] - The brand's association with popular culture, including its endorsement by actor Wu Jing, reflects its efforts to connect with consumers and preserve its legacy [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sale of Dayao to an American investment firm underscores the competitive pressures faced by domestic beverage companies in a rapidly evolving market [1] - The article suggests that the acquisition may impact the brand's identity and consumer perception, raising concerns about the future of domestic brands in the beverage sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market capitalization of Nongfu Spring is significantly higher than that of its competitor, China Resources Beverage, with a ratio of approximately 23 times, raising questions about the reasons behind this disparity in valuation [1] Financial Performance - Nongfu Spring reported a gross profit margin of 60.3% in the first half of the year, while China Resources Beverage's gross profit margin was only 46.7% [1] Revenue Composition - Nongfu Spring has established a "water + beverage" dual-engine strategy, with tea beverage revenue accounting for 39.4% of its total revenue, compared to only 15.4% for China Resources Beverage [1] Supply Chain Model - Nongfu Spring operates a fully self-sufficient production model, whereas over half of China Resources Beverage's products rely on outsourcing, incurring approximately 2 billion yuan in annual "cooperative production partner service fees," which compresses profit margins [1] Future Plans - China Resources Beverage has recognized its supply chain issues and plans to increase its own production capacity to over 60% by 2025, although building this capacity will take time [1]