Core Viewpoint - Hainan Rubber Industry Group has successfully launched a tax-free value-added processing business for natural rubber products, marking a significant step in enhancing the value of the natural rubber industry in Hainan [1][17]. Group 1: Company Development - Hainan Rubber was established as the first publicly listed natural rubber company in China in 2011 and has since become the largest global natural rubber industry chain technology group [4][21]. - The company aims to ensure national strategic resource security while enhancing its technological capabilities and international influence in the natural rubber sector [1][18]. - By 2024, Hainan Rubber's total assets are projected to reach 36.07 billion yuan, solidifying its position as a leading enterprise in the industry [4][21]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a comprehensive development strategy that includes stable planting, production, market share, and deep processing, while also emphasizing high-end and international development [1][18]. - Hainan Rubber has completed the designation of 1.8 million acres of standardized rubber gardens and is constructing a modern rubber industry park [5][21]. - The company has improved its ESG rating from A to AA, reflecting its commitment to sustainable development and social responsibility [5][22]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - Hainan Rubber is enhancing its innovation capabilities through a "1+5+X" research and development system, which includes establishing technology innovation centers and pilot bases [10][27]. - The company has successfully implemented 10,000 smart rubber tapping machines and has registered over 1.01 million tons of dry rubber through its smart collection platform, benefiting nearly 270,000 rubber farmers [10][27]. - Hainan Rubber is leading the establishment of a natural rubber industry innovation alliance, focusing on key technological breakthroughs [5][22]. Group 4: International Expansion - The company's global footprint now spans 15 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Thailand, enhancing its international operational capabilities [12][29]. - Hainan Rubber has established stable planting and processing bases in Southeast Asia and Africa, aiming to strengthen its resource supply and global service capabilities [12][31]. - The company has successfully issued the first technology innovation bond in Hainan Free Trade Port, setting a record for the lowest interest rate for equity bonds in the province [12][32]. Group 5: Future Outlook - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Hainan Rubber plans to create 1 million acres of standardized rubber gardens and establish demonstration bases for smart tapping and social services [32]. - The company aims to deepen cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, promoting the internationalization of China's natural rubber industry standards and technologies [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increased month-on-month. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuated at a high level. Some tire companies had holiday maintenance and closures. Except for a small amount of low - price replenishment, most companies were mainly on the sidelines and cautious in purchasing. The decline in the total outbound volume of Qingdao Port led to a significant increase in the total inventory of Qingdao Port. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Due to the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises for about 3 days and the gradual resumption around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 16,180 yuan/ton, with a change of +10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai Rubber was 130 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,150 yuan/ton, with a change of -50 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a change of -15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,030 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber increased by 513 lots to 200,122 lots, and the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber decreased by 1,702 lots to 72,732 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber decreased by 1,895 lots to -50,296 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber increased by 1,498 lots to -14,041 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber increased by 2,500 tons to 103,190 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber decreased by 1,007 tons to 56,952 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,750 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,950 yuan/ton, with an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,915 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 25 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 25 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was -430 yuan/ton, with a change of -30 yuan/ton; the basis of the non - standard product of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was -1,000 yuan/ton, with a change of -60 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,368 yuan/ton, with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 218 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets was 59.59 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.52 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets was 55.55 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.06 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue was 55 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -17.4 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, with an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, with an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.55%, with a decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.35%, with a decrease of 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, with an increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, with an increase of 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.95%, with an increase of 0.89 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.78%, with an increase of 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.46%, with an increase of 1.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.46%, with an increase of 1.28 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold approximately 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3%. As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points [2].

证券之星消息，1月7日橡胶板块较上一交易日上涨3.52%，彤程新材领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4085.77，上涨0.05%。深证成指报收于14030.56，上涨0.06%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603650 | 彤程新材 | 51.57 | 10.00% | 12.04万 | 6.21亿 | | 300731 | 科创新源 | 58.71 | 6.17% | 17.17万 | 286.6 | | 300121 | 阳分布委 | 13.60 | 5.75% | 32.60万 | 4.39亿 | | 920225 | 利通科技 | 38.43 | 4.15% | 4.27万 | 1.62亿 | | 920694 | 中裕科技 | 20.56 | 2.90% | 2.43万 | 4940.88万 | | 605183 | 确成股份 | 20.28 | 1.45% | 4.21万 | 8525.39万 | | 301459 | 丰戊股份 | 44.93 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, rubber prices initially declined and then rebounded. Due to the US government shutdown, market risk appetite decreased, suppressing asset prices. Globally, it was still the high - yield period in November, with a large supply of rubber. However, as the weather turned colder, domestic rubber tapping gradually ended, reducing supply pressure. Some domestic tire enterprises were under maintenance, with a slight decline in the startup rate, and high tire enterprise inventories limited their restocking enthusiasm. Bonded area inventories remained high without a turning point, and imports were at a relatively high level. In October, tire production continued to increase year - on - year, tire exports continued a slight positive growth, automobile consumption was temporarily stable, and heavy - truck consumption increased significantly year - on - year for six consecutive months. Looking ahead, as domestic rubber tapping gradually ends, supply pressure will ease, and with the policy support, rubber prices may recover and rise [23]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In November, rubber futures prices initially declined and then rebounded. As of November 30, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 15,410 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton for the month, a 2.15% increase. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton for the month, a 0.37% increase [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) ANRPC production increase from January to September, abundant domestic supply - ANRPC data showed that in September, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; Indonesia's production was 195,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.86%; Malaysia's production was 33,000 tons, and the year - on - year change details were not clearly presented in the text; Vietnam's production was 151,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.69%. In September, the total ANRPC production was 1.1416 million tons, with a year - on - year change not clearly presented in the text. From January to September, the total ANRPC production was 8.1704 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.33% [9][11][13]. (2) Tire enterprises under maintenance, a slight decline in the startup rate, and a year - on - year decline in tire exports - In October, tire enterprises' startup was at a high level. As of October 30, the startup rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.41%, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.34%. In October, tire exports increased steadily. The monthly export volume of automobile tires in China was 51.73 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.22%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume of new pneumatic tires was 417.21 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.01% [11]. (3) Automobile production and sales increased steadily, and heavy - trucks increased year - on - year for six consecutive months - In October, China's automobile sales were 3.2221 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.82%. Among them, passenger car sales were 2.9614 million, and heavy - truck sales were 106,200, a year - on - year increase of 60.02%. Heavy - trucks had year - on - year growth for six consecutive months, with a remarkable growth rate [12]. 3. Future Outlook - With the gradual end of domestic rubber tapping, supply pressure will ease, and with the policy support, rubber prices may recover and rise [23].

化工日报 | 2026-01-07 原料价格坚挺，橡胶成本支撑凸显 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16050元/吨，较前一日变动+260元/吨；NR主力合约13010元/吨，较前一日变动+205 元/吨；BR主力合约11830元/吨，较前一日变动+185元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15750元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15050元/吨，较前 一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1915美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1860美元/吨，较前一日变动+30美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11700元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。 市场资讯 现货及价差：2026-01-06，RU基差-300元/吨（-10），RU主力与混合胶价差1000元/吨（+60），NR基差428.00元/吨 （-40.00）；全乳胶15750元/吨（+250），混合胶15050元/吨（+200），3L现货15950元/吨（+250）。STR20#报价1915 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply and demand of the rubber market are both relatively dull. The change in production is still subtle, with the uncertainty lying in Thailand's output, which is initially expected to be relatively stable. The vehicle market policy in 2026 is weaker than that in 2025, but thanks to the enhanced competitiveness of China's automobile industry, the automobile export market is still expected to be good. The tire export market may see a slight increase, while the replacement market faces relatively large pressure. Overall, the demand driving points are weak, and the supply variable depends on Thailand. If Thailand's output is lower than expected, the market will fluctuate upwards; if it is better than expected, the market will fluctuate at a low level [3][114]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - In 2025, the rubber market had weak supply and demand. Starting from the tapping expectation in early March, due to good weather in the producing areas and high finished - product inventories of Chinese tire enterprises, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were low, putting pressure on the rubber market. Influenced by the US tariff policy and the China - Thailand zero - tariff negotiation, the rubber market experienced two sharp drops. The rubber 09 contract futures fell from the highest 18,355 yuan/ton on February 21st to the lowest 13,295 yuan/ton on June 4th. The long production cycle of rubber led to repeated verification of its inflection point. Although rainfall increased and planting optimization measures improved single - yield, the demand was weak, and the rubber price fluctuated at a low level around 15,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [8]. Chapter 2: Rubber Supply Situation - **Rubber Planting Total Area**: As of 2025, the ANRPC rubber planting total area was 124.23 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Since 2016, the new planting area has been significantly reduced, and the total area has changed very little. It is expected to still have a slight change in 2026 [13]. - **Rubber Tapping Area Growth Rate**: The theoretical tappable area will have a low growth rate in the future. The 2025 tapping area growth rate was 1%, and the ANRPC expected the global natural rubber production in 2025 to increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons. The expected growth rate of the tapping area in 2026 is between - 0.06% and - 0.08%. Considering the aging of rubber trees and weather effects, the production in 2026 is expected to be under pressure or even decline [12]. - **Main Producing Countries' Production Growth Rate**: In 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons. In 2026, Indonesia and Malaysia have strong expectations of production reduction. The uncertainty of global production lies in Thailand's output (the expected reduction in southern Thailand is offset by the increase in central and northern Thailand) and the increment of Cote d'Ivoire. China's production is expected to increase slightly [3][12][114]. - **Thailand**: In 2025, the production increased slightly. The annual output is expected to reach 489 tons. In 2026, the total production may remain stable, with an expected narrow adjustment in the range of - 52,000 to + 80,000 tons [30][35]. - **Indonesia**: The production has been decreasing year by year. In 2025, the expected output was 2.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. In 2026, the production reduction expectation remains [36][40]. - **Vietnam**: The production growth potential may be hindered. In 2025, the output decreased slightly. In 2026, the production may be under pressure or even decline [41][45]. - **Cote d'Ivoire**: The production has been growing strongly. In 2025, the expected output was about 1.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8%. In 2026, the production is expected to be between 1.9 and 2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.5% - 11% [48][52]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In 2025, the exports of ANRPC member countries showed overall growth, internal differentiation, and explosive growth in exports to China. Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam all had significant increases in exports to China [56]. - **China's Market**: - **Production**: In 2025, the production was expected to reach 933,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In 2026, the production is expected to be about 992,800 tons, with a subsequent average annual growth rate of 4.5% [60][63]. - **Import**: In 2025, the import demand was strong. In 2026, the domestic import may maintain a good momentum, and Southeast Asia will still be the core import source [64][68]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure has decreased. Although there was a slight accumulation of inventory in November 2024, the overall inventory level is still lower than before [69]. Chapter 3: Rubber Consumption Situation - **Domestic Automobile Production and Sales**: In 2025, China's automobile market had a good growth trend. From January to November, the production and sales of automobiles were 31.331 million and 31.127 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.9% and 11.4%. The new energy vehicle market developed rapidly, with production and sales reaching 19.907 million and 17.88 million respectively from January to November, a year - on - year increase of over 31%, and a market penetration rate of about 57.5%. In 2026, the policy will be adjusted, but the export and new energy sectors are expected to continue to grow [81][84][91]. - **Automobile Exports**: In 2025, China's automobile exports maintained a strong growth momentum. From January to November, the export volume was 7.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%. New energy vehicles were the highlight, with an export volume of 2.315 million from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 100%. In 2026, the export of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a high speed [87][90]. - **Heavy Truck Domestic Sales and Exports**: In 2025, the heavy - truck industry had significant breakthroughs in both domestic sales and exports. The annual wholesale sales reached 1.143 million, a year - on - year increase of 26.7%, and the export volume was expected to reach 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. In 2026, the industry will continue to transform and upgrade [92][94]. - **Replacement Market**: In 2025, the freight volume and turnover growth rates were low, and the fixed - asset investment and new - house construction area decreased. The replacement market faced relatively large pressure [99][102]. - **Operating Rates of All - Steel and Semi - Steel Tires**: In 2025, the semi - steel tire operating rate was stable at around 70%, and the all - steel tire operating rate fluctuated at a low level and was weak at the end of the year. In 2026, the semi - steel tire operating rate will fluctuate around 70%, and the all - steel tire operating rate will have greater fluctuations, with the highest point in Q2 and a seasonal decline in Q4 [106][110]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **Supply Side**: The growth rate of the tapping area is expected to be negative from 2026 - 2030, and the aging of rubber trees in traditional producing countries is deepening. The production in 2026 is uncertain, mainly depending on Thailand's output, and Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to have production reductions [111]. - **Demand Side**: In 2026, the vehicle market policy is weaker, but the automobile export market is still expected to be good. The tire export market may have a slight increase, and the replacement market pressure is large [113]. - **Investment Strategy**: The supply and demand are both relatively dull. The market will fluctuate at a low level, and the supply variable depends on Thailand [114].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run in a moderately strong manner on January 7, 2026, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and an intraday view of being moderately strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: moderately strong; Overall: moderately strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: With the cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has dissipated, weakening the bullish drive. Currently, domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on the night of Tuesday, and are expected to maintain a moderately strong volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: moderately strong; Overall: moderately strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the moderately strong volatile pattern of Shanghai rubber futures, it indirectly supports synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand expectation of synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere has gradually dominated. Synthetic rubber futures rose slightly on the night of Tuesday and are expected to maintain a moderately strong volatile trend on Wednesday [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, the Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. - For urea, the import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. - For polypropylene, although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 1.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.33%, to 428.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 18.00 yuan/ton, or 0.73%, to 2479.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.27%, to 2925.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a draw of 2.10 million barrels in crude oil arrival inventory to 205.11 million barrels, a build of 0.58 million barrels in gasoline commercial inventory to 89.62 million barrels, a build of 0.42 million barrels in diesel commercial inventory to 92.56 million barrels, and a build of 1.00 million barrels in total refined oil commercial inventory to 182.18 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had various changes. The main futures contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 2293 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 265 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had changes, and the overall basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 1778 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and rubber prices fluctuated upwards. There were different views from bulls and bears. The total inventory of natural rubber in China increased, and the tire start - up rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 155 yuan to 4919 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 78.6%, with an increase of 1.4%. The inventory in factories and society increased [7]. - **Strategy View**: The overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the port inventory of styrene decreased while that of pure benzene increased [10]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 130 yuan/ton to 6579 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 93 yuan/ton to 6423 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 80 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the inventory in production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7336 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic plants restarted and expanded production. The PTA load increased. The import volume from South Korea to China in December increased, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 104 yuan to 5150 yuan. The PTA load increased, and some plants restarted and increased production. The downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 106 yuan to 3838 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly. Some domestic and overseas plants had operation changes. The downstream load increased, and the port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period, and the Hainan area is almost at the end of the tapping season. It is expected to fully enter the non - tapping period next week. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increasing month - on - month. - Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuate at a high level. Some tire enterprises have maintenance and holidays. Except for a small amount of replenishment at low prices, most are in a wait - and - see state, and procurement is cautious. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao Port leads to a significant increase in the total inventory. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Due to some enterprises having about 3 days of maintenance arrangements and gradually resuming around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 260 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,010 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 199,609 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 17,689 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 74,434 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 3,853 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 45,601 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,974 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 15,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,297 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 100,690 tons, with no month - on - month change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,959 tons, with no month - on - month change. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,890 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,885 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 940 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,238 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 129 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 228 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 76 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.07 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.92 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.7 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 45,800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.18%, with no month - on - month change. [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 5.21 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.49 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.34 percentage points. - As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points. [2]

Group 1 - The rubber sector experienced a rise of 1.17% on January 6, with Li Tong Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up by 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up by 1.4% [1] - Key stocks in the rubber sector showed significant increases, with Li Dao Technology rising by 5.49% and Keqiang Co. increasing by 4.45% [1] Group 2 - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 94.6 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 82.97 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for key stocks included Li Tong Technology with a closing price of 36.90 and a trading volume of 53,700 hands, resulting in a transaction amount of 200 million yuan [1][2] - The net inflow from retail investors was notable, with significant contributions from stocks like Longxing Technology and Sanli Co. [3]