证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 03 日 猪肉夏粮收获三成，猪价震荡运行 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 18 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：据农业农村部，截至 5 月 30 日 17 时，全国已收 获夏粮小麦面积1.29亿亩，收获进度已过三成。湖北、四川及 华南地区麦收圆满收官，安徽过八成，河南过六成，陕西过两 成，江苏近一成半。5 月 30 日开始大范围降雨，本轮降雨有利 于土壤墒情改善，为机播创造良好条件，同时，各地加快抢收 进度，为腾茬机播争取了时间、赢得了主动。下一步，农业农 村部将密切跟踪天气变化，组织有关省份认真抓好麦收工作和 应急抢收抢烘准备，加快推进成熟小麦收晒，切实准备应对天 气变化，努力保障夏粮适收快收、颗粒归仓。同时强化收种衔 接，认真落实机械化措施促进大面积单产提升工作，努力提高 机械化播栽质量效率，为全年粮食丰产丰收打好基础。在粮食 安全背景下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我 们判断转基因商业化进程将继续扩面提速，以通过提升单产从 根本上提升关键品种自给率，同时，农业农村部强调 ...

新消费与传统成长选择 20250602 摘要 新消费领域通过内容营销进行品类创新，在日化、个护、保健品等领域 表现突出，当前估值处于一倍到 1.3 倍 PEG 之间，与 2019 年股市爬坡 期类似，风险偏好中等偏高，或将进入阶段性盘整。 传统成长股如东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒估值偏低，PEG 低于 1，利润增长预 计超 30%，二季度旺季动销加速概率大，或有绝对和相对收益，传统消 费估值不高时或是配置重点。 2025 年新消费仍是首选，美妆（若羽臣、景峰医药、增康润本等）和 零食（盐津铺子、卫龙、百龙创源等）是重点；传统成长方面，关注无 糖茶增长的东鹏饮料和改善周期的燕京啤酒。 新消费增长点集中在情绪消费、新技术（AI）和新渠道，上半年表现理 想，业绩兑现度高，估值合理。6 月催化剂包括小米智能眼镜新品发布、 孩子王 AI 玩具推出、小商品城六区市场招商。 家电行业关注旧换新政策落地和 618 促销影响，截至 5 月 31 日，12 个 品类销量同比增长 39%，国补政策效果显著，但部分地区调整补贴进度。 立减促销对格力、小天鹅等龙头有利，关注美的集团、海尔等稳健龙头。 Q&A 当前新消费领域的创新周期与上一轮相比 ...

随着试点启动 全国范围内的大型连锁药店 如 益丰药房 大参林 老百姓 心堂 有望率先 ■ 同时也暴露出服务区充电压力剧增的问题，这直接带来对高速充电桩密度、移动充电设施和智能调 度系统的刚性需求。 4、 《 重啤与嘉威之争的背后，是民族品牌在资本游戏中挣扎的缩影 》 摘 要 ■ 嘉士伯通过旗下重庆啤酒申请并获批"山城啤酒"多个商标，清晰表露出在2029年包销协议到期前， 争取完全掌控品牌权属 的意图。 ■ 投资者需警惕，这种操作虽可 强化嘉士伯的控制权和利润分配能力 ，但也可能引发更广泛的舆论 和政策层面压力。 ■ 嘉士伯入主后，重庆啤酒明显将资源向国际高端品牌（如乐堡、1664、乌苏）倾斜， 品牌价值从 60亿元跌至不足2000万元 。 ■ 虽然这种策略对嘉士伯全球利润有利，但会逐步 侵蚀重庆啤酒在本土的文化资产和品牌护城河 ， 导致其未来估值重心从"本地强品牌"转向"外资平台型公司"，市值弹性收窄。 ■ 目前重庆啤酒虽在一审中需向嘉威支付3.5亿元，但核心问题——2029年后"山城"品牌归属、是否 存在永久使用权——仍无定论。 ■ 《中医药临床疗效数据采集研究型药店建设规范》是我国首个将药店正式纳入临床研 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Jingji Zhino Times Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Jingji Zhino") is preparing to enter the IP operation business to create a second growth curve amid declining revenue and net profit in 2024, raising questions about whether this move is a rational decision or a blind trend-following [1][3]. Group 1: Business Transition - In May 2025, Jingji Zhino announced its entry into the IP industry, aiming to establish a three-in-one model of "IP matrix - traffic operation - secondary market management" to tap into the trillion-level market [2]. - Jingji Zhino's main businesses include pig and poultry breeding, feed production, and real estate development, with the new IP venture aligned with its commitment to social responsibility and consumer needs [2][3]. - The company plans to collaborate with over 50 IPs and aims to add more than 10 new signed and incubated IPs in the coming year, adjusting its IP matrix based on market feedback [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Jingji Zhino reported a revenue of 5.96 billion yuan, a 52% year-on-year decline, and a net profit of 714 million yuan, down 59.13%, marking the first performance drop since 2022 [3]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a significant drop in real estate project sales, with net profit from real estate falling approximately 90% to around 240 million yuan [3][4]. - Despite improved profitability in the pig breeding sector, the overall industry is not considered a sunrise industry, leading to a search for more lucrative side businesses [3][4]. Group 3: Market Context and Challenges - The current popularity of the IP industry is linked to trends like the "goods economy," which has gained traction among younger consumers, particularly the Z generation [8][9]. - The market for the "goods economy" reached 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 41% [8][9]. - Jingji Zhino's entry into the IP sector is seen as a potential way to enhance its brand experience and create a second growth curve, but it faces challenges in adapting to the rapidly changing consumer demands and the complexities of IP management [10][11].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.1642 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market closed in the red [1] Sector Performance - The innovative drug, aquaculture, and military equipment sectors led the gains [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion and humanoid robot sectors experienced the largest declines [1] ETF Performance - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) led the gains with an increase of 2.26%, while the aquaculture ETF (516760) and the agricultural ETF (562900) both rose by 1.91% [2] - Other notable ETFs included the livestock ETF (159867) up 1.67% and the agricultural 50 ETF (159827) up 1.62% [2] Pig Industry News - Recent market news indicated that the pig industry will not increase the number of breeding sows and will reduce the weight of fattening pigs to 120 kg, discouraging the sale of secondary fattening pigs [2] - This news has led to a collective rise in pork stocks, which had previously been in a downturn due to falling pork prices [2] - An analyst noted that since mid-May, pork prices have broken previous fluctuation ranges, hitting year-to-date lows, primarily due to the inverted price difference affecting breeding farms and increased supply [2] Declining ETFs - The Xinchuang ETF (159537) led the declines with a drop of 5.19%, followed by the Hang Seng Internet ETF (159688) down 2.77% and the China Concept Internet ETF (159607) down 2.75% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to expand its capital base and enhance its market presence as a leading player in the global pork industry [1][2]. Company Overview - Muyuan Foods is a technology-driven global leader in the pork industry, covering the entire supply chain from breeding, pig farming, feed production, slaughtering, to meat processing [2]. - The company has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since January 28, 2014, with the stock code 002714 [2]. Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Muyuan Foods is the largest pig farming enterprise globally based on production capacity and output since 2021, maintaining the highest pig output for four consecutive years [2]. - The company's global market share in terms of pig output increased from 2.6% in 2021 to 5.6% in 2024, surpassing the combined market share of the second to fourth largest competitors [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Muyuan Foods from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be RMB 124.83 billion, RMB 110.86 billion, and RMB 137.95 billion, respectively [3]. - Net profit figures for the same period are expected to be RMB 14.93 billion, a loss of RMB 4.17 billion, and a profit of RMB 18.93 billion, indicating a significant recovery in profitability by 2024 [3]. - Gross profit margins are forecasted to be 17.5% in 2022, 3.1% in 2023, and 19.1% in 2024, reflecting fluctuations in operational efficiency [2][3]. Management Team - The chairman and CEO, Qin Yinglin, has been with the company since its inception in 2000 and has extensive experience in the pig farming industry [5][6]. - Other key executives include Cao Zhinian, the vice chairman and CFO, and Yang Ruihua, the executive director and vice president, both of whom have been with the company since its early days [5][7][8].

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.03%, and ChiNext Index up 0.15% on May 29, 2023 [1] - Consumer electronics and textile manufacturing sectors showed significant gains [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts a 5% growth in electrolytic aluminum demand in 2024, indicating strong fundamentals that can counteract the decline in real estate consumption [2] - The market is cautious due to concerns over export competition and preemptive aluminum consumption in the photovoltaic sector, yet global electrolytic aluminum remains balanced despite weak consumption [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to withstand weak consumption cycles due to low inventory levels and weak supply elasticity, making the sector attractive for investment [2] Group 3 - CICC sees investment opportunities in leading automotive display and HUD manufacturers as automotive intelligence becomes more prevalent [3] - The penetration rate of HUD products is increasing, with Chinese manufacturers gradually gaining market share [3] - The launch of Xiaomi's YU7 panoramic display system is expected to accelerate the adoption of virtual panoramic displays in the automotive sector [3] Group 4 - Galaxy Securities highlights the importance of cost marginal changes and favorable funding conditions for high-quality pig farming enterprises [4] - It is anticipated that pig prices may show a year-on-year decline in 2025, with stable performance expected within the year [4] - The combination of declining costs and unexpected profit growth makes it essential to focus on high-quality pig farming companies with significant cost marginal changes and good funding conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to further promote its overseas business development [2][6] Group 1: Business Overview - Muyuan Foods covers the entire industry chain, including breeding, pig farming, feed production, slaughtering, and meat processing [4] - As of December 31, 2024, the company operates over 1,000 pig farms across 23 provinces in China, with pig production capacity increasing from 74.3 million heads in 2022 to 81.01 million heads in 2024 [4] - The company has maintained its position as the world's largest pig farming enterprise since 2021, with a consistent top ranking in pig slaughtering volume for four consecutive years [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2014 to 2024, Muyuan Foods' total revenue has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.7%, while net profit has a CAGR of 72.7%, with an average net profit margin of 19.0% [4] - Revenue figures for 2022 to 2024 are 124.8262 billion yuan, 110.8607 billion yuan, and 137.9469 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 14.9334 billion yuan, -4.1679 billion yuan, and 18.925 billion yuan [4] Group 3: International Expansion - The company aims to leverage its experience in disease prevention and pig farming technology to provide comprehensive pig farming solutions internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia [7] - The company has established a subsidiary in Vietnam to advance its overseas business [7] Group 4: Cost Management and Debt Reduction - Muyuan Foods plans to reduce its overall debt by approximately 10 billion yuan by the end of 2025, while also focusing on lowering absolute debt levels [9] - The company aims to lower its pig farming costs to 12 yuan per kilogram by 2025, with over one-third of production lines already achieving costs below this target [10]

｜2025年5月28日星期三｜ NO.1 派格生物医药上市首日破发跌26% 5月27日，派格生物医药-B（HK02565，股价11.56港元）在港交所挂牌上市。开盘后股价一路走跌，截至当日收盘，跌幅达25.90%。派格生物医 药每股定价15.6港元，共发行1928.35万股股份，每手500股。派格生物医药是一家专注于自主研发慢性病创新疗法（主要为肽和小分子药物）的 生物技术公司，重点关注代谢紊乱领域。 点评：上市首日股价大幅下跌，可能反映了市场对派格生物医药估值和未来增长前景的担忧。尽管该公司专注于慢性病创新疗法，但投资者可 能对其短期内的盈利能力和市场竞争力持保留态度。 NO.4 拓璞数控向港交所递交IPO招股书 5月26日，上海拓璞数控科技股份有限公司（以下简称"拓璞数控"）在港交所递交招股书，拟在香港主板挂牌上市。招股书显示，拓璞数控是一 家专注于高端智能制造装备的研发、设计、生产及销售的企业，专注于研发五轴数控机床，以满足中国航空航天领域对先进制造的需求。2022 年度、2023年度及2024年度，拓璞数控收入分别为1.36亿元、3.35亿元及5.32亿元。 点评：拓璞数控在港交所递交招股书，标志着这 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) has submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as part of its international expansion strategy, aiming to raise funds for further internationalization, innovation, and operations [1] - Muyuan Foods is the world's largest pig farming company by production capacity and output since 2021, with a market share increase from 2.6% in 2021 to 5.6% in 2024 [2] - The company has also entered the pig slaughtering and meat processing business since 2019, ranking fifth globally and first in China by slaughter volume in 2024 [2] Group 2 - In 2024, Muyuan Foods achieved total revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround with a growth of 519.42% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company sold 22.658 million pigs, with a total of 5.32 million pigs slaughtered, representing an 81% year-on-year increase [3] - The global pork consumption is steadily increasing, projected to rise from 95.2 million tons in 2020 to 115.3 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% [3]