Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Stock Connect China Technology Index (HSSCT) experienced a slight decline of 0.31% as of September 22, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, indicating a volatile market environment for technology stocks in Hong Kong [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology 30 ETF (520980) saw a near 1% increase at one point, currently up 0.24%, with a latest price of 1.26 yuan. Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a 4.32% increase, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 12.15% during trading, with a transaction volume of 550 million yuan, reflecting active market trading. The average daily transaction volume over the past week was 689 million yuan [1] - The latest scale of the ETF reached 4.492 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, and it ranks in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's latest share count reached 3.565 billion shares, also a new high since inception, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1] Fund Inflows - The Hang Seng Technology 30 ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past eight days, with a single-day net inflow of 311 million yuan last Friday. The total net inflow over the last eight trading days reached 565 million yuan, averaging 70.61 million yuan per day [2] Company News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that Moore Threads' IPO will be reviewed on September 26, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan for AI and graphics chip development. The company is backed by major shareholders including Tencent and ByteDance [4] - Goldman Sachs recently raised the target price for Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) H-shares by 15%, driven by optimism regarding China's IC design demand and AI trends, which are expected to support SMIC's production and average selling prices [4] - Huatai Securities noted that the recent rebound in Hong Kong technology stocks is attributed to accelerated domestic AI developments, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index rising nearly 20% since July's low [4] Investment Strategy - Zhongtai Securities suggests that the Hong Kong market is likely to continue its structural rise in the short term, supported by improving sentiment in the A-share market and ongoing demand for AI. The technology sector is highlighted as a promising investment direction [5] - The Hang Seng Technology 30 ETF is recommended for investors seeking exposure to pure technology attributes, focusing on the TMT sector without the influence of pharmaceuticals or consumer goods, thus aligning better with current technology trends [5]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:29，今日沪指涨0.08%，A股成交量633.80亿股，成交金额10030.90 亿元，比上一个交易日减少14.11%。个股方面，1963只个股上涨，其中涨停46只，3331只个股下跌， 其中跌停7只。从申万行业来看，电子、计算机、汽车等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.16%、1.23%、 0.52%；社会服务、美容护理、建筑材料等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.65%、1.30%、1.29%。（数据宝） | 农林牧渔 | | | | *ST中基 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 建筑材料 | -1.29 | 72.92 | -21.80 | 天山股份 | -5.64 | | 美容护理 | -1.30 | 16.25 | -12.62 | 芭薇股份 | -3.42 | | 社会服务 | -1.65 | 121.76 | 10.95 | 天府文旅 | -6.87 | 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:29） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth momentum in China slowed down in August, with multiple indicators such as prices, investment, and consumption weakening, increasing the necessity for policy support. Policy is guiding the further growth of "service consumption". There are expectations for policies from the upcoming "922" press conference. The overseas situation is positive, with positive signals from the China-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year. However, the domestic economic data is poor, and there is a need for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending. The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logic** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In August, China's economic growth slowed, with industrial production, investment, and consumption weakening. The year-on-year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth of national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to August was 0.5%. Policy support for the economy is necessary [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The policy is guiding the growth of service consumption, with over 30 policies already introduced and more to come. The "922" press conference has raised policy expectations, similar to the "924" policy "combination punch" last year [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The China-US Madrid economic and trade talks had a positive tone. The Fed cut interest rates by 20bp in September 2025, and the dot - plot shows possible further rate cuts [3]. - **Liquidity**: As of September 18, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment View and Strategy** - **View**: Control positions before the holiday, adjust and go long, and expect a "slow bull" pattern in the A - share market [3]. - **Strategy**: Control positions unilaterally before the holiday, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9; the SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7; the CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3; the CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (3.1%), electronics (3%), automobiles (3%), machinery and equipment (2.2%), and social services (1.7%) led the gains, while banking (-4.2%), non - ferrous metals (-4%), non - bank finance (-3.7%), steel (-3%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-2.7%) led the losses [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 17.61%, 18.63%, 12.92%, and 11.24% respectively, while the open interests decreased by 7.73%, 4.25%, 8.04%, and 2.08% respectively [11]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 was at 1592.2, at the 94.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at 267.8, at the 43.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 32.7% historical quantile level; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 26.6% historical quantile level [16]. Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 11923 billion yuan. Next week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will expire on September 25 [22]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of September 18, the A - share margin trading balance was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of September 19, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.29, at the 51.8% quantile level in the past decade [29]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In August, various economic indicators showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value was 5.2%, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to August was 0.5%. The CPI was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9% [32]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction also had their own performance trends. For example, in the real estate industry, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued; in the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4% [32][34][37]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices showed different growth rates and ROE levels. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of the CSI 300 in Q2 2025 was 2.49%, and the ROE (TTM) was 9.71% [44][45]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Policy Movements**: A series of policies have been introduced, including policies to promote service consumption, optimize real estate policies, and provide fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans. For example, on September 17, the Ministry of Commerce announced policies to promote service consumption; on September 5, Shenzhen optimized real estate policies [49][50]. Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 52%, the consumer confidence index was 55.4, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22000. The year - on - year growth of PCE was 0%, and the year - on - year growth of CPI was 2.9% [59][62]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed and implemented a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [66][68].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term A - share market may continue to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility should be watched out for. The style may become more balanced in the future, and a defensive allocation is recommended, focusing on opportunities in technology sector rotation, high - dividend, and cyclical sectors. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. - The "watch - the - stock - to - trade - bonds" principle dominates short - term trading, and the bond market is difficult to decline significantly before the stock market cools down [8]. Group 2: Stock Index Strategy Stock Index Trend Review - Last week, the A - share market showed a significant divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index representing large - cap blue - chips fell, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose. The weakness of financial and real - estate sectors dragged down the Shanghai - related indices, while the growth - style sectors provided support for relevant indices [6]. Technical Analysis - The market maintained a differentiated pattern last week. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong, while the SSE 50 was weak. After a ground - volume rebound on a certain day in August, there was a significant volume decline on Thursday, forming a divergence with the previous up - volume. The short - term profit - taking pressure was prominent [6]. Strategy Outlook - Reasonably control positions and pay attention to policies and sector rotation rhythms [6]. Group 3: Treasury Bond Strategy Treasury Bond Trend Review - The bond market oscillated last week. Although the central bank made a net injection, liquidity did not loosen significantly due to tax - period disturbances. Rumors of the central bank's bond - buying operation and the Fed's interest - rate cut provided some support [9]. Technical Analysis - The T - contract K - line oscillated upwards, with the MACD yellow and white lines intertwined, and the BOLL lines still opening downwards [9]. Strategy Outlook - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is recommended to reduce positions in a timely manner [9]. Group 4: Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Both supply and demand sides weakened, with external demand falling more significantly on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [13]. Inflation - In a certain month, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI remained sluggish [16]. Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in a certain month dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in industrial added value was mainly due to the export - oriented industries such as automobiles, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [19]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in a certain month turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons were complex, including short - term factors like extreme weather and statistical method issues, medium - term factors such as export - expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term factors like the shrinking real - estate investment [22]. Social Retail Sales - The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in a certain month dropped to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales dropped to 2.8%. The decline was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering revenue, weak sales of state - subsidized products, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [25]. Social Financing - In a certain month, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Although the credit growth was negative, the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [28]. Import and Export - In a certain month, China's exports were $3217.8 billion, imports were $2235.4 billion, and the trade surplus was $982.4 billion. The import and export performance was stronger than expected, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [31]. Group 5: Weekly Focus - The report lists a series of US economic indicators to be focused on, including the second - quarter core PCE price index, personal consumption expenditure, real GDP, and initial jobless claims [33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Apple-related stocks in the Hong Kong market have shown significant gains, with several companies experiencing increases of over 10% [1] - Companies such as AAC Technologies, GoerTek, and Q Tech have all risen by more than 10% [1] - Sunny Optical Technology has increased by over 7%, while FIH Mobile and BYD Electronics have also seen upward movement [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industries through a diffusion index[26][27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the diffusion index for each industry based on price momentum 2. Rank industries by their diffusion index values 3. Select top industries for allocation based on their rankings 4. Adjust the portfolio monthly or weekly based on updated diffusion index rankings[26][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance in certain years (e.g., 2022 with an annual excess return of 6.12%) but struggled during market reversals or concentrated market themes, such as in 2024 and 2025[26][33] 2. Model Name: GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities[38] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Input high-frequency volume and price data into the GRU network 2. Train the GRU model on historical data to identify patterns in industry rotation 3. Generate factor scores for industries based on the GRU model's output 4. Rank industries by their GRU factor scores and allocate to top-ranked industries[38][34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs well in short cycles but struggles in long cycles or extreme market conditions. It has shown difficulty in capturing excess returns in concentrated market themes during 2025[33][38] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -1.74%[30] - **Excess Return (Weekly)**: -1.41%[30] - **Excess Return (September 2025)**: -1.88%[30] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 2.76%[25][30] 2. GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -0.72%[36] - **Excess Return (Weekly)**: -0.38%[36] - **Excess Return (September 2025)**: -0.10%[36] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: -7.78%[33][36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Diffusion Index - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the breadth of price momentum across industries to identify upward trends[26][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the proportion of stocks in an industry with positive price momentum 2. Aggregate these proportions to derive the diffusion index for the industry 3. Rank industries based on their diffusion index values[27][28] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in capturing upward trends but vulnerable to reversals and underperformance in counter-trend markets[26][33] 2. Factor Name: GRU Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes GRU deep learning to analyze high-frequency trading data and generate predictive scores for industry rotation[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Input high-frequency trading data into the GRU network 2. Train the model to recognize patterns in industry rotation 3. Output factor scores for industries based on the model's predictions[38][34] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong in short-term predictions but less effective in long-term or extreme market conditions[33][38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index - **Top Industries (Weekly)**: Non-ferrous Metals (0.978), Banking (0.968), Communication (0.946), Electronics (0.877), Automotive (0.874), Retail (0.873)[27] - **Bottom Industries (Weekly)**: Food & Beverage (0.354), Real Estate (0.46), Coal (0.487), Transportation (0.543), Construction (0.574), Building Materials (0.618)[27] 2. GRU Factor - **Top Industries (Weekly)**: Non-ferrous Metals (7.4), Petrochemicals (5.38), Coal (4.17), Steel (4.15), Building Materials (3.46), Non-banking Financials (3.08)[34] - **Bottom Industries (Weekly)**: Comprehensive Finance (-19.42), Utilities (-13.41), Electronics (-13.18), Pharmaceuticals (-11.14), Automotive (-10.07), Consumer Services (-10.04)[34]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board indices showed positive performance, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index up by 1.5%, the Growth Index up by 1.3%, the Comprehensive Index up by 1.2%, and the Sci-Tech 100 Index up by 1.0% as of midday [1] - The trading volume for the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588080) reached approximately 900 million yuan during the same period [1] - Guotai Junan Securities indicated that the short-term risk outlook is stable, with a weak dollar and overseas interest rate cuts favoring China's monetary easing and the resumption of government bond trading [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech 50 Index consists of 50 large-cap stocks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with over 60% of its composition in the semiconductor sector, and a rolling P/E ratio of 176.5 times [3] - The Sci-Tech 100 Index includes 100 medium-cap stocks, focusing on small innovative enterprises, with a rolling P/E ratio of 277.2 times and over 80% of its composition in electronics, biomedicine, and power equipment [3] - The Comprehensive Index covers all market securities on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, focusing on core industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy, with a rolling P/E ratio of 260.5 times [3] Group 3 - The Growth Index is composed of 50 stocks with high growth rates in revenue and net profit, primarily in the electronics and biomedicine sectors, with a rolling P/E ratio of 221.3 times [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on September 22, with sectors such as consumer electronics, semiconductors, and communication services showing notable gains [1] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (588000) opened lower but rallied strongly, rising by 1.68% by 10:17, with several holdings in the portfolio performing well [1] - Key stocks like Chipone Technology surged over 14%, while other companies such as Bawell Storage and Amlogic also saw increases exceeding 7% [1] Group 2 - In Q3, the electronic sector is expected to maintain growth trends driven by normal demand, with strong demand for AI-related components such as chips, PCBs, power supplies, storage, and servers [2] - The storage sector is experiencing enhanced demand, particularly from enterprise clients, while the ToB industrial sector is showing signs of recovery, likely boosting related analog, power, and mature process segments [2] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (588000) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, with 68.77% of its holdings in the electronics sector, aligning well with the development of domestic chips, AI, and robotics [2]

长江商报消息 二级市场上，BAT表现突出，尚未上市的华为，因产业成功突围而备受全球业界关注。 9月18日—20日，华为全联接大会2025在上海召开，华为轮值董事长徐直军在演讲时正式公布了昇腾演 进路标，发布全球最强的算力超节点与算力集群。 时过6年，华为曲线突围，成功开辟出一条独特的算力之路，且成为全球算力最强者。如徐直军所言， 华为打造了全世界最强算力集群。 不仅仅是芯片，华为的手机也重回巅峰。2025年第二季度，华为以1250万台出货量重返中国市场榜首。 未来三年，即到2028年，华为正在开发和规划三个系列，分别是Ascend 950系列，包括两颗芯片： Ascend 950PR和Ascend 950DT，以及Ascend 960、Ascend 970系列，更多具体芯片还在规划中。 徐直军发布的内容，传递给外界的是"三个世界最强"，即最强超节点、最强集群、最强算力。 2025年3月推出的华为Atlas 900超节点，最大算力可达300 PFLOPS，到目前为止是全球算力规模最大的 超节点。 华为发布的最新超节点产品Atlas 950 SuperPoD和Atlas 960 SuperPoD超节点，分别支持8 ...

上周，A股震荡调整。Wind数据显示，截至9月19日，A股两融余额报23981.85亿元，其中融资余额报23816.10亿 元。上周A股市场融资余额增加466.46亿元。9月17日，A股两融余额和融资余额均创历史新高。 具体来看，上周的5个交易日中，9月15日A股融资余额增加183.37亿元，9月16日增加225.11亿元，9月17日增加 127.11亿元，9月18日减少27.62亿元，9月19日减少41.50亿元。 值得注意的是，8月13日—9月19日，A股连续28个交易日成交额与两融余额均超2万亿元。在A股历史上，仅有33个 交易日成交额与两融余额均超2万亿元。 从行业情况来看，上周申万一级31个行业中有25个行业融资余额增加，电子、非银金融、电力设备行业融资净买入 金额居前，分别为166.42亿元、50.34亿元、45.28亿元。在融资余额减少的行业中，有色金属、国防军工、煤炭行业 融资净卖出金额居前，分别为11.58亿元、9.52亿元、2.73亿元。 上周行业融资余额变动情况 | 行业 | | 两融余额(万元) 融资余额(万元) | 融资净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...