光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续回落，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘下跌 1.29 美元至 60.70 美元/桶，跌幅 2.08%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.37 美元 | | | | 至 64.21 美元/桶，跌幅 2.09%。SC2505 以 477.4 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 32.7 元/桶，跌幅为 6.41%。上周美国超预期关税政策引发市场巨 | | | | 震，周一开盘原油直接封住跌停，夜盘低开。美国总统表示，尽 | | | 原油 | 管渴望避免征税的贸易伙伴纷纷递出橄榄枝但自己并不考虑暂停 | 震荡 | | | 全面实施对等关税，不过他同时也对一些谈判发出了持开放态度 | | | | 的信号。市场担心特朗普关税可能导致企业价格上涨、从而使美 | | | | 国经济活动放缓，最终损害石油需求。当前关税政策的不确定性 | | | | 令市场恐慌情绪加重，同时波动率也大幅提升，但需求冲击的预 | | | | 期下，原油价格来看仍存在走 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In January and February 2025, the import and export data of the polyester chain showed differentiation. PTA and polyester exports had a good start, with cumulative exports increasing by 14.9% and 16.9% year - on - year respectively. On the import side, PX imports shrank, with a 16.4% year - on - year decline in cumulative imports from January to February, while ethylene glycol imports exceeded expectations, with a 37.5% increase in cumulative imports. After the "rush to export" in the textile and clothing market ended, the export scale contracted [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Import - PX imports contracted, with cumulative imports from January to February down 16.4% year - on - year. In January, China imported 70.9 tons of PX, a single - month year - on - year decrease of 18.3%, and in February, it imported 68.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. From the perspective of import sources, Brunei surpassed Taiwan, China to become one of the top three import sources [6][9]. PTA Export - PTA exports in February increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year, and cumulative exports in the first two months grew steadily. In January and February, PTA exports were 27.2 and 38.3 tons respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.3% in January and an increase of 74% in February. Cumulative exports from January to February 2025 were 65.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. The top five export destinations from January to February were Oman, Vietnam, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey. The top five export provinces were Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Liaoning, and Guangdong [3]. EG Import - EG imports exceeded expectations and increased significantly, with cumulative imports from January to February up 37.5% year - on - year. In January and February, EG imports were 67.7 and 59.4 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.4% and 42.4%. Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Canada were still the main import sources [6][15]. Polyester Export - Polyester exports continued to perform excellently, with all categories maintaining rapid growth. Cumulative polyester exports from January to February were 210.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.9%. Among them, bottle chips, filaments, staple fibers, polyester films, and slices all had varying degrees of year - on - year growth. The top five export destinations were Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Korea, and India. Exports were concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu [4][5]. Textile and Clothing Export - After the "rush to export" ended, textile and clothing exports contracted. Cumulative textile and clothing exports from January to February were $42.88 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. In February, textile and clothing exports were poor, dragging down the cumulative export growth rate from January to February [3][36].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心冲高回落，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘下跌 0.28 美元至 | | | | 71.20 美元/桶，跌幅 0.39%。布伦特新换 6 月合约收盘下跌 0.28 | | | | 美元至 74.49 美元/桶，跌幅 0.37%。SC2505 以 553.3 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 4.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.78%。宏观方面，市场担心美国政府即 | | | | 将宣布的全面对等关税政策可能令全球贸易战局势恶化。API 数 | | | | 据显示，截至 3 月 28 日当周，美国 API 原油库存增加 603.7 万 | | | | 桶，之前一周减少 459.9 万桶。API 库欣原油库存增加 224.4 万桶， | | | 原油 | 前值减少 61 万桶。API 成品油汽油库存减少 162.8 万桶、馏分油 | 震荡 | | | 库存-1.1 万桶。原油库存累库亦对价格有所施压。当前，对俄罗 | | | | 斯石油实施次 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Heshun Technology (301237) is facing significant challenges post-IPO, with a notable decline in performance and a planned share reduction by a major shareholder [1][3]. - The shareholder, Yuanning Huixin, intends to reduce their stake by up to 2.3453 million shares, which represents no more than 3% of the total share capital after excluding shares in the repurchase account [1][3]. - Heshun Technology, a leader in the functional polyester film sector, has seen its net profit drop by 47.17% in 2022 compared to the previous year, and further plummet by 77.60% in 2023, with a projected loss of 35 to 48 million yuan for 2024 [3][4]. Group 2 - The company attributes its declining performance to changes in supply and demand dynamics, increased industry price competition, and rising management costs, which have all contributed to a decrease in gross profit margins [3]. - Since its IPO, Heshun Technology's stock price has also declined significantly, closing at 24.02 yuan per share on March 26, representing a drop of over 50% from its peak [4].