1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, due to rumors and weak overall commodity sentiment, the price has fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high while demand is weak with high inventory pressure. However, the downside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped. The supply has increased, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It's currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.90 yuan/barrel, a 0.64% decline, at 448.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased, while diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 15 yuan, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 68 yuan to 2274 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 11 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to rumors and weak overall sentiment, the price fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The downside space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan, and in Henan, it fluctuated between - 10 and + 20 yuan. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 67 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, the futures price dropped, supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. It's in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market expectation is highly uncertain, and the global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber price oscillated weakly. The long and short sides have different views on the price trend. Tire production rates decreased during the National Day holiday [10][11][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 29 yuan to 4692 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 112 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 312 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased. The downstream operating rate remained flat, and the inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China decreased by 85 yuan/ton, and the spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate increased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate decreased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6918 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 6602 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 65 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 92 yuan to 6338 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 12 dollars to 779 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted or were under maintenance. The import from South Korea to China increased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 70 yuan to 4440 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan to 4380 yuan. The supply - side load decreased, and the downstream load remained flat. The inventory increased, and the spot processing fee increased while the futures processing fee decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 4061 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 62 yuan to 4145 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and the downstream load remained flat. The import forecast increased, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyester market continues to operate under pressure due to the marginal weakening of demand and inventory pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On October 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,504.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of -84.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 0.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the supply side, the PX plant operating rate remains relatively stable, but the expected commissioning of new plants and unplanned maintenance of some Asian factories create a mix of long and short factors, and the potential elasticity of the supply side may break the balance. The PTA industry load has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the short - term stock supply pressure has not been significantly relieved with the co - existence of plant restarts and load reductions, but the delay in the commissioning of new production capacity may ease the expectation of loose supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - On the demand side, although the polyester operating rate is at a high level, the inventory pressure of grey fabrics in the weaving end is transmitted to the polyester link. The lack of sustainability of new orders may restrict the replenishment demand for polyester raw materials. The trading volume of the Textile City has declined from the previous high, and the marginal weakening of the resilience of overseas orders and the seasonal weakening of domestic demand pose a test to the sustainability of the positive feedback in the industrial chain, and the support from the demand side may gradually decline [2]. - On the inventory side, the absolute value of PTA factory inventory is still in the low range in recent years, but the visible inventory has accumulated continuously in the past two weeks, and the weakening basis reflects insufficient spot drive. In the environment of compressed processing fees, the inventory contradiction in the industrial chain is transferred to the middle reaches. Attention should be paid to the impact of the manifestation of hidden inventory on the circulating supply, and the turning point of the inventory structure may be a signal of the price's phased inflection point [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On October 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,200.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,365.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 165.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The MA15 trading volume of the Textile City in the demand side fluctuated narrowly in the range of 857 - 862 million meters, not continuing the upward trend in the peak season, indicating insufficient downstream replenishment momentum. The inventory structure has prominent contradictions: the inventory of polyester staple fiber is 7.58 days, significantly higher than the 5 - year average of 4.96 days, becoming the main source of inventory accumulation pressure. The polyester filament varieties show obvious differentiation, with the POY inventory of 13.6 days significantly lower than the average of 20.4 days, while the FDY/DTY is slightly higher than the historical average. It is expected that the industrial chain will continue to operate weakly. The decline of crude - oil - related varieties on the cost side and the high inventory of polyester staple fiber may drive polyester factories to increase production cut - back efforts to balance supply and demand [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: On October 13, 2025, the PX futures main - contract price was 6,458 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.71% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 8,467 to 109,201 lots, an increase of 8.41%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 12,852 to 49,851 lots, a decrease of 20.50%. The South Korea FOB price of PX spot was 767 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars or 0.90% from October 10. The PX basis was - 120 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 42.86% from October 10 [5]. - **PTA**: On October 13, 2025, the PTA futures main - contract price was 4,510 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.53% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 9,456 to 603,489 lots, an increase of 1.59%, and the main - contract open interest increased by 37,917 to 1,096,302 lots, an increase of 3.58%. The PTA 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 3.85% from October 10 [5]. - **Short - fiber**: On October 13, 2025, the short - fiber futures main - contract price was 6,166 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan or 0.55% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 43,754 to 119,500 lots, a decrease of 26.80%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 28,801 to 47,106 lots, a decrease of 37.94%. The PF 1 - 5 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 85.71% from October 10 [5]. - **Other products**: The US crude oil main - contract price was 59.14 US dollars/barrel on October 13, up 0.9 US dollars or 1.55% from October 10. The ethylene glycol price was 4,060 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 3.10% from October 10 [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On October 13, Trump's list of candidates for the Fed chair has been narrowed to five. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report at 8:30 am on October 24 (8:30 pm Beijing time). Trump said that if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot be resolved, the US may supply "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine [7]. - On October 10, the central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo will start building gold reserves when the gold price soars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts: Williams supports further interest - rate cuts, while Barr believes that interest - rate cuts should be cautious, and Kashkari basically agrees with Barr [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 11, the total trading volume of the Textile City was 9.04 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.75 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 2.31 million meters [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry is expected to operate weakly as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are declining. PTA's game intensifies with the resonance of sentiment and fundamentals, and the sharp decline in crude oil. The PX market has few transactions, and the downstream polyester procurement stagnated during the festival. The domestic PTA production has declined, and the basis has slightly decreased with stable demand. For ethylene glycol, the port inventory in East China remains low, but the domestic device production is putting pressure on the price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 461.9 yuan/barrel on October 10th to 453.7 yuan/barrel on October 13th, a decrease of 8.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA-SC spread increased by 35.59 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0171. The PTA main futures price decreased by 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 9 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 16 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased by 6, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 32,580 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 798 to 791, and the PX-naphtha spread decreased by 7 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price increased by 11 yuan/ton, the MEG-naphtha spread increased by 1.6 yuan/ton, and the MEG domestic price decreased by 35 yuan/ton. The main basis increased by 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start-up Situation - PX start-up rate decreased from 86.21% to 85.57%, a decrease of 0.64%; PTA start-up rate increased from 75.70% to 77.20%, an increase of 1.50%; MEG start-up rate increased from 64.92% to 65.33%, an increase of 0.41%; polyester load remained unchanged at 89.38% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the cash flow increased by 30 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F price decreased by 35 yuan/ton, and the cash flow increased by 20 yuan/ton; DTY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the cash flow increased by 30 yuan/ton. The filament sales rate decreased from 57% to 52%, a decrease of 5% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the staple fiber sales rate decreased from 61% to 60%, a decrease of 1% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - glossy chip price decreased by 70 yuan/ton, the chip cash flow decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the chip sales rate decreased from 72% to 67%, a decrease of 5% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.25 million - ton PTA device in South China is currently restarting, which stopped around September 23rd, and another 1.1 million - ton PTA device has increased its load after operating at a low load last week [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 - Research Scope: Energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (polypropylene, PVC, plastic, styrene), polyester (PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), others (rubber) [2] - Strategy Suggestion: Build option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Market Conditions of Underlying Futures - Crude oil (SC2512): Latest price 454, up 0 (0.02%), trading volume 6.51 million lots (+ 3.49 million), open interest 3.11 million lots (+ 0.33 million) [3] - LPG (PG2511): Latest price 4,121, up 52 (1.28%), trading volume 5.24 million lots (- 0.56 million), open interest 5.86 million lots (- 0.44 million) [3] - Methanol (MA2512): Latest price 2,319, up 0 (0.00%), trading volume 4.95 million lots (+ 1.18 million), open interest 4.02 million lots (+ 0.22 million) [3] - And other varieties with detailed price, change, volume, and open - interest data provided [3] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - Crude oil: Volume PCR 1.11 (+ 0.41), Open - interest PCR 0.56 (- 0.03) [4] - LPG: Volume PCR 0.52 (- 0.13), Open - interest PCR 0.48 (- 0.07) [4] - Methanol: Volume PCR 0.68 (+ 0.01), Open - interest PCR 0.65 (+ 0.06) [4] - And other varieties with corresponding PCR data [4] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Crude oil: Pressure point 570, support point 440 [5] - LPG: Pressure point 4,700, support point 4,050 [5] - Methanol: Pressure point 2,300, support point 2,250 [5] - And other varieties with their respective pressure and support levels [5] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Crude oil: At - the - money implied volatility 27.545%, weighted implied volatility 35.73% (+ 3.29%), historical average 37.02% [6] - LPG: At - the - money implied volatility 16.82%, weighted implied volatility 22.03% (+ 1.86%), historical average 24.00% [6] - Methanol: At - the - money implied volatility 17.03%, weighted implied volatility 19.61% (+ 3.13%), historical average 21.83% [6] - And other varieties with implied volatility data [6] Group 6: Option Strategies for Different Varieties Crude Oil - Fundamental: OPEC+ started a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day in October, market worries about long - term supply surplus, and the production increase cycle will continue until next year. The situation in the Middle East has eased [7] - Market Analysis: Since July, it has been weak, with a downward trend in October [7] - Option Factors: Implied volatility fluctuates above the average; Open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates a weak market; Pressure point 570, support point 440 [7] - Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Sell a neutral call + put option combination; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [7] LPG - Fundamental: PDH device maintenance is stable, but profit is declining. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decline after entering the peak season [9] - Market Analysis: After a decline in July, it has shown an oversold rebound with pressure [9] - Option Factors: Implied volatility drops to near the average; Open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates a weak market; Pressure point 4,700, support point 4,050 [9] - Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Sell a neutral call + put option combination; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [9] Other Varieties - Similar analysis and strategy suggestions are provided for methanol, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, rubber, polyester products, caustic soda, soda ash, and urea [9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 7: Charts - Charts for each variety include price trends, trading volume and open - interest, PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels [15][36][56][75][94][113][133][152][170][188]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the economic situation is influenced by the upcoming measures for counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on the timing of restarting government bond trading and the potential for interest rate cuts depending on the economic outlook for Q4 2025 [1][12][13] - The ECI supply index is at 49.99%, showing a slight decline, while the demand index is at 49.91%, indicating a mixed economic recovery influenced by the recent holidays [12][13] - The report highlights the potential limited impact of Trump's renewed tariff threats on the US economy, while emphasizing the need to monitor retaliatory measures and the escalation of trade conflicts into critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors [1][12][14] Fixed Income - The report discusses the recent issuance of secondary capital bonds, with one bond issued at a scale of 1.2 billion yuan, and a total trading volume of approximately 44.5 billion yuan, which is a significant decrease from the previous week [3][20] - It notes the issuance of green bonds totaling approximately 15.25 billion yuan, with a decrease in trading volume to 41.8 billion yuan, indicating a cooling in the market [4][21] - The report suggests that investors should prioritize controllable pullbacks in convertible bonds and focus on performance improvement or valuation recovery rather than getting caught up in clause negotiations [15][18] Company Analysis - Hong Kong Travel (00308.HK) is focusing on core profitable businesses by divesting its tourism real estate assets, with projected net profits of 270 million, 420 million, and 600 million HKD for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 31, 20, and 14 times [5][7] - Guangyang Co., Ltd. (002708) is expected to achieve revenues of 2.774 billion, 3.700 billion, and 4.795 billion yuan, with net profits of 108 million, 218 million, and 363 million yuan for 2025-2027, indicating a recovery in profitability and new growth opportunities in FPC, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots [8] - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) anticipates net profits of 430 million, 650 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025-2027, benefiting from the recovery of the polyester industry and the upcoming production of its Qinzhou project [9] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) is projected to have net profits of 1.9 billion, 2.9 billion, and 4.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a focus on benefiting from stable growth policies in the petrochemical sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing a recovery, and Hengyi Petrochemical's Qinzhou project is about to commence production, positioning the company as a leading player in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The polyester industry is undergoing a recovery phase, with a focus on technological research and development, scale effects, and differentiated product development [1] - The industry is benefiting from policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing internal competition [1] Company Summary - Hengyi Petrochemical is leveraging its technological advantages and scale to strengthen its market position [1] - The Qinzhou integrated project is set to launch, which is expected to drive the company's growth [1] - The company anticipates that its 1.2 million tons of caprolactam-nylon project in Guangxi will begin production in the second half of 2025, contributing to its performance with products including civilian fibers, engineering plastics, and films [1] - The company is expected to enhance its upstream and downstream supply chain, leading to improved operational efficiency and profitability as industry consolidation deepens [1] - The company is rated with a "buy" recommendation due to its promising future growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing a recovery, with Hengyi Petrochemical's Qinzhou project set to commence production, positioning the company as a leading player in the market [1] Industry Summary - The polyester industry is witnessing a recovery in its economic environment, driven by industry consolidation and supportive growth policies [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing integration within the petrochemical sector, enhancing its profitability [1] Company Summary - Hengyi Petrochemical is leveraging its technological research and development advantages, along with economies of scale, to strengthen its market position [1] - The company has established significant competitive advantages in differentiated product development, intelligent production, and full industry chain collaboration [1] - The Qinzhou caprolactam-polyamide integrated project is anticipated to boost the company's growth [1] - The company expects the first phase of its Guangxi 1.2 million tons caprolactam-polyamide project to commence production in the second half of 2025, with products including civilian fibers, engineering plastics, and films [1] - The commencement of this project is projected to further enhance the company's performance and effectively strengthen its upstream and downstream supply chain [1] - The company is optimistic about its future growth potential and has been given a "buy" rating for the first time [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", suggesting a lack of clear driving forces and an expected period of mainly oscillatory movement [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is experiencing a situation where fundamentals and sentiment are in resonance, leading to a decline in the chemical sector, with polyester following suit. Various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and others are influencing the market, and overall, the market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Some ports are responding to sanctions, causing disruptions in China's crude oil imports. The optimization demand for oil products may be better than the chemical demand. For the PTA segment, the domestic PTA device supply has slightly contracted, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the PX device operating rate has been stable. However, due to sentiment disruptions, costs have weakened, and polyester is expected to decline accordingly [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has remained at around 90%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, with the main increase in polyester load concentrated in the bottle - chip variety, and the weaving - end load has remained stable [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased by 50,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up during the holiday [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is very loose [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha has reached $220, and the PTA processing fee has remained at around 200 yuan, with a slight expansion [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a moderately low level. After the domestic maintenance season ended, the reforming device has gradually recovered, but attention should be paid to the disruptions to the PX raw material supply caused by the current sanctions [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a legal investigation into Qualcomm for suspected violations of the Anti - Monopoly Law due to its failure to legally report the concentration of business operators in its acquisition of Autotalks [4]. - **Investment View**: There are no obvious driving forces, and the market is expected to mainly oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - The market anticipates an oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an estimated surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of 2026, as OPEC+ increases production, the surplus is expected to further increase to 2.3 million barrels per day. China has been increasing its SPR strategic reserves, adding to the global additional demand for crude oil. Most of the current crude oil increments come from the Middle East, mainly provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [24]. - The US government shutdown may affect gasoline demand during the off - season. North American refineries are operating at high loads. As winter approaches and the North American RVP changes, the increasing demand for butane blending may make it difficult to maintain gasoline profits. The change in North American cracking spreads may affect Asian gasoline cracking spreads, and the cracking spreads in major global regions may weaken [50]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's new device, the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons has increased. The profit from selective disproportionation has declined. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, and the operating rate of PX has significantly recovered [33][63]. - The price of pure benzene is suppressing the disproportionation profit. The supply of MX is expected to increase starting in October, and the future domestic xylene capacity addition will continue at a high rate. In 2026, a total of 1.7 million tons of xylene devices from several companies are waiting to be commissioned [63]. - The processing fee of PTA has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%, indicating optimistic market demand. Mainstream PTA factories have planned to reduce production, and the PTA operating rate may further improve, but it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [70]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weakly operating. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is still at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are limited, the overseas import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and the commissioning of domestic new devices has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has recovered, and the device load has increased [77][83]. - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation impacts [85]. - **Polyester**: Polyester has continued to maintain a high load, and the production of polyester has increased while the downstream has entered the off - season [91][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The methanol market presents a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between current pressure and future expectations. Supply - some inland plants are expected to resume production, but the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland area supports prices. Demand - traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected commissioning of new polyolefin plants suppresses MTO demand. Attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, PE's operating rate is rising, with few planned maintenance, and long - term supply pressure is prominent due to domestic production growth and overseas year - end inventory clearance. For PP, its valuation has been repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, and the restart rhythm of plants needs attention. In October, new plant commissioning pressure is high, and demand lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, domestic load remains high, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees, delayed commissioning of new PTA plants, and multiple PTA plants' maintenance plans. In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on PX1 following crude oil price rebounds and reverse calendar spreads. For PTA, supply is expected to shrink, but the basis repair is limited due to loose spot circulation and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations. Absolute prices are dragged down by weak oil prices and tariff policy uncertainties. Strategies include bearish trading on TA following crude oil price rebounds and rolling reverse calendar spreads for TA1 - 5. For ethylene glycol, port arrivals are high, new plant production is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with a weak supply - demand structure in the far - month. Strategies include shorting EG01, selling out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 - C - 4350, and reverse calendar spreads for EG1 - 5. For short - fiber, supply is high, and demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to tariffs and weak oil prices. However, low inventory provides some support. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PF11, and the PF processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. For bottle - chips, demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter the inventory accumulation period. PR follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to improve slightly. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PR, and the PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, supply is expected to remain high due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity commissioning. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream plants plan to reduce production. However, port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Strategies include trading BZ2603 in line with styrene and crude oil price fluctuations. For styrene, supply is expected to increase due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of some plants. Although some plants may shut down for maintenance, it is difficult to offset the new supply. Demand decreased during the holiday but is expected to recover gradually. However, downstream profit pressure and high inventory may limit demand support. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on EB11 price rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, post - holiday inventory has increased significantly, and spot trading is light. Downstream non - aluminum inventory is being digested, and there may be some purchasing demand at low prices. The main alumina downstream has high inventory and low restocking willingness, and the future purchase price may be lowered. In the short term, caustic soda demand lacks support and is weak, but there is medium - to - long - term demand support from alumina's future commissioning. Short - term trading can be bearish, and downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season, with a continuous contraction in profile demand. However, exports relieve some of the oversupply pressure. Cost provides some bottom - line support. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2307 on October 10, up 17 (0.74%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2351, up 5 (0.21%). The MA15 spread was - 44, up 12 (- 21.43%). The Taicang basis was - 136, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the Inner Mongolia northern line was 2068 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.72%); Henan Luoyang was 2195, down 5 (- 0.23%); Taicang port was 2215, up 5 (0.23%). The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 148, up 20 (15.69%); between Taicang and Luoyang was 20, up 10 (100%) [1]. Inventory - Mid - sized methanol enterprises' inventory was 33.94 (6.08% increase); methanol port inventory was 154.3 million tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. Operating Rates - Upstream: domestic enterprises' operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); overseas enterprises in Shanghai was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); northwest enterprises' sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%). Downstream: the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); formaldehyde was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); acetic acid was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); MIBE + was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Polyolefin Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7037 on October 10, down 40 (- 0.57%); L2509 closed at 7124, down 34 (- 0.47%); PP2601 closed at 6722, down 23 (- 0.34%); PP2509 closed at 6782, down 25 (- 0.37%). The L2509 - 2601 spread was 87, up 6 (7.41%); PP2509 - 2601 was 60, down 2 (- 3.23%). Spot prices: East China PP fiber was 6630, down 20 (- 0.75%); North China LLDPE film was 6980, down 50 (- 0.71%) [5]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 48.9 million tons (27.67% increase), and social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%). PP enterprise inventory was 68.1 million tons (30.96% increase), and trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. Operating Rates - PE: the operating rate of plants was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%). PP: the operating rate of plants was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); powder plants was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Prices and Spreads - Crude oil and related products: Brent crude oil (December) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%). PX - related: CFR China PX was $809/ton, down $11 (- 1.4%); PX spot price (in RMB) was 6504 yuan/ton, down 82 (- 1.2%). Polyester products: POY150/48 price was 6770 yuan/ton, unchanged; DTY150/48 was 7850 yuan/ton, down 20 (- 0.3%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 23 (- 0.4%) [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 50.7 million tons, up 24.0% from September 22; the expected arrival was 8.0 million tons, down 15.4 (- 65.8%). Operating rates: Asian PX was 79.9%, up 1.9%; PTA was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG was 75.1%, up 2.7%; polyester comprehensive was 91.5%, up 1.2% [6]. Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads - Upstream: Brent crude oil (November) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was $577/ton, down $7 (- 1.2%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785/ton, down $20 (- 2.5%). Benzene - styrene: styrene East China spot was 6750 yuan/ton, down 80 (- 1.2%); EB2510 was 6670 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.8%); EB2511 was 6743 yuan/ton, down 75 (- 1.1%) [7]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Inventory: pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.10 million tons, down 1.50 (- 14.2%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 20.19 million tons, up 0.44 (2.2%). Operating rates: Asian pure benzene was 80.1%, up 1.1%; domestic pure benzene was 79.3%, up 0.6%; domestic hydrogenated benzene was 78.0%, unchanged; styrene was 73.2%, down 0.1% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - Caustic soda: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2546.9 yuan/ton, up 46.9 (1.9%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. PVC: East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 (- 1.0%) [8]. Supply and Demand - Supply (operating rates): caustic soda industry was 88.2%, up 1.4 (1.6%); PVC total was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%). Demand: caustic soda downstream - alumina industry was 83.4%, down 0.3 (- 0.3%); PVC downstream - Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 15.9%, down 23.0 (- 59.2%) [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]