Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the marginal changes in the "heat" (attention) of broad-based indices. By identifying the index with the highest weekly heat change rate, the strategy rotates into that index. If the "Other" group (stocks not included in the four main indices) has the highest heat change rate, the strategy remains in cash[7][13]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for the components of four major indices (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000) and the "Other" group. 2. Smooth the weekly heat change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2). 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash[13][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of leveraging market sentiment shifts to generate returns[13]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 8.74% since 2017[16] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.5%[16] - **2025 YTD Return**: 20.9%[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Total Heat Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: The total heat indicator aggregates the attention metrics (e.g., browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks) of individual stocks. It is normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000. This indicator serves as a proxy for market sentiment[7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat indicator, with a range of [0, 10,000][7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment and can be used to identify mispricing due to overreaction or underreaction[7]. 2. Factor Name: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change in the total heat indicator, smoothed using a 2-week moving average. It reflects short-term sentiment dynamics[13][20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly change rate of the total heat indicator for each stock. 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2)[13][20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying short-term sentiment-driven opportunities in broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[13][20]. 3. Factor Name: Concept Heat Ranking - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor ranks concepts based on their weekly heat change rates. It identifies the top and bottom concepts for constructing portfolios[28][31]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Rank concepts by their weekly heat change rates. 2. Select the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rates. 3. Construct two portfolios: - **TOP Portfolio**: Select the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts. - **BOTTOM Portfolio**: Select the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts[31]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor captures the behavioral tendencies of investors, leveraging the rapid price adjustments in high-attention stocks[28][31]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Total Heat Indicator - **No specific backtesting results provided** 2. Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **No specific backtesting results provided** 3. Concept Heat Ranking - **BOTTOM Portfolio Annualized Return**: 15.71%[33] - **BOTTOM Portfolio Maximum Drawdown**: 28.89%[33] - **2025 YTD Return for BOTTOM Portfolio**: 29.2%[33]

Event and Commentary - The overall dividend performance has shown significant differentiation this year, with most dividend assets in the A-share market underperforming the broader market in the first half of the year, particularly concentrated in the banking sector, which rose by 13.1% while the CSI Dividend Index fell by 3.1% [1] - Following the "anti-involution" policy introduced by the Central Financial Committee and subsequent government plans to stimulate growth in key industries, commodity prices have surged since late June, leading to a notable recovery in industry sentiment and strong performance in high-dividend sectors related to the cycle [1][4] - Historical trends indicate that dividend strategies tend to outperform the market from November to April, primarily due to increased risk aversion and pre-emptive positioning for dividend announcements [1] Core Views - There is a clear differentiation in dividend assets this year, with recent policies favoring cyclical resources [3] - The banking sector has seen a significant rise, with the banking index increasing by 19.5% as of July 10, driven by valuation increases, while other high-dividend sectors have generally declined [3][4] - The decline in the banking sector's dividend yield is attributed to a significant drop in the rolling cumulative dividend amount over the past 12 months, although this decline is expected to stabilize [6] Market Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive for high-dividend equity assets, with a continuation of low interest rates and expected inflows of incremental capital into the market [2][7] - The dividend payout ratio in the A-share market still has room for improvement, and there is potential for structural expansion in dividend assets beyond the banking sector, including insurance, coal, steel, and construction [2][7] Hong Kong Market Insights - Hong Kong dividend assets exhibit a higher dividend yield compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index showing a 3.1% yield and the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend Index at 5.6% [8] - The tax advantages of investing in Hong Kong through the Stock Connect program are expected to enhance trading activity and attract more investors [8] Key Products - Dividend Quality ETF (159758) tracks the CSI Dividend Quality Index, focusing on companies with high dividend payment rates and profitability [9] - Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) reflects the performance of companies with high and stable free cash flow levels [9] - Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) targets high-dividend central enterprises within the Hong Kong market [10]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3600 points, specifically at 3605.73, with a gain of 0.65% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw significant increases, rising by 1.21% and 1.50% respectively [2][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Beauty Care (3.10%), Non-ferrous Metals (2.78%), and Steel (2.68%) [3] - Conversely, the Banking sector recorded a decline of 1.42%, while the Communication sector fell by 0.15% [3] Conceptual Sector Highlights - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and the Horse Racing concept were among the leading conceptual sectors, with gains of 9.11% and 4.67% respectively [3][4] - In contrast, the F5G concept and Controlled Nuclear Fusion sectors experienced declines of 0.55% and 0.09% respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates a strong short-term technical outlook, with the potential for continued upward movement in the market, although increased selling pressure may lead to volatility [5] - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to rise due to macro policy support and capital market reforms, with a long-term upward trend anticipated [5] Investment Focus - Short-term investment focus should be on sectors expected to report favorable mid-year results, while long-term attention should be directed towards domestic demand, technology, and dividend-paying sectors [5]

Group 1 - Major industry ETFs in the US saw most of them rise, with the global airline industry ETF increasing by over 2% and the regional bank ETF rising by over 1% [1] Group 2 - The global airline ETF (us JETS) was reported at 25.50, up by 0.59 (+2.37%) with a trading volume of 356,100 shares [2] - The regional bank ETF (us KRE) was reported at 62.65, up by 0.74 (+1.20%) with a trading volume of 916,900 shares [2] - Other notable ETFs included the daily consumer goods ETF (us XLP) at 80.80, up by 0.45 (+0.56%) with a trading volume of 1,968,600 shares [2] - The biotechnology index ETF (us IBB) was at 131.85, up by 0.68 (+0.51%) with a trading volume of 59,306 shares [2] - The utility ETF (us XLU) was at 82.43, up by 0.40 (+0.49%) with a trading volume of 928,900 shares [2] - The financial sector ETF (us XLF) was at 52.20, up by 0.19 (+0.37%) with a trading volume of 6,503,700 shares [2] - The technology sector ETF (us XLK) was at 259.45, up by 0.74 (+0.29%) with a trading volume of 485,300 shares [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices mostly rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.4% [13][14][16] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective increases of 6.1%, 4.4%, and 4.0% [16][19][34] - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest mid-year report performance growth, with an estimated year-on-year growth rate of approximately 10.0% [33][34] Group 2 - Industries expected to show high mid-year report performance growth include light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors, with predicted net profit growth rates of 34.2%, 33.0%, and 19.1% respectively [33][34] - The construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are anticipated to have significant performance improvement, with expected growth rate improvements of 11.4%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [34][39] - The current mid-year earnings forecast disclosure rate is only 4.1%, indicating limited reference value for investors [39][42] Group 3 - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is 72%, with many industries showing high pre-announcement rates, particularly in real estate and non-bank financial sectors [39][40] - The environmental protection, transportation, and media sectors are expected to show significant improvement in mid-year earnings forecasts, with respective improvement rates of 139.5pct, 111.0pct, and 96.7pct [41][44] - The market is expected to experience a bullish trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors that are likely to outperform in mid-year reports [57][58]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the net capital inflow and outflow across various industries, indicating a significant divergence in market performance, with defense and military industries seeing substantial inflows while the computer industry faced the largest outflow [1][2]. Industry Summary Positive Capital Inflow - The defense and military industry experienced a net capital inflow of 2.57 billion, with a price change of 1.72% and a trading volume increase of 124.60% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The oil and gas industry saw a net inflow of 1.51 billion, with a price increase of 2.05% and a trading volume increase of 163.08% [1]. Negative Capital Outflow - The computer industry had the largest net capital outflow of 7.04 billion, with a price decline of 1.89% and a trading volume increase of 16.53% [2]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector faced a net outflow of 3.78 billion, with a price drop of 2.04% [2]. - The media industry recorded a net outflow of 5.72 billion, with a price decrease of 2.53% [2]. Other Notable Industries - The banking sector had a slight net inflow of 0.83 billion, with a price decline of 0.92% [1]. - The real estate industry experienced a net outflow of 4.62 billion, with a price drop of 1.55% [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.42% closing at 3376.20 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.87% at 10144.58 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.11% at 2024.93 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1153 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Beauty Care, Comprehensive, Textile and Apparel, Communication, and Light Industry Manufacturing, with increases of 2.63%, 2.53%, 2.41%, 1.79%, and 1.61% respectively [1] - The only sectors that experienced declines were Transportation, National Defense and Military Industry, and Public Utilities, with decreases of 0.58%, 0.24%, and 0.12% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included Rare Earth, Rare Earth Permanent Magnet, Gold and Jewelry, Dairy Industry, and Lithium Battery, among others [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Air Transportation, Aircraft Carriers, and Intelligent Logistics experienced pullbacks [11]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:59，今日沪指涨0.39%，A股成交量777.48亿股，成交金额9310.49亿 元，比上一个交易日减少0.50%。个股方面，3748只个股上涨，其中涨停73只，1456只个股下跌，其中 跌停3只。从申万行业来看，美容护理、综合、纺织服饰等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.55%、2.36%、 1.75%；交通运输、煤炭、公用事业等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为0.62%、0.25%、0.24%。（数据宝） | 国防军工 | | | | 纵横股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公用事业 | -0.24 | 156.43 | -19.60 | 南网能源 | -5.30 | | 煤炭 | -0.25 | 40.02 | -23.25 | 陕西煤业 | -2.00 | | 交通运输 | -0.62 | 206.30 | -9.10 | 江西长运 | -5.99 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:59） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨 ...

Market Overview - As of 10:28 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.04% with a trading volume of 422.88 million shares and a turnover of 508.38 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 13.62% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Defense and Military Industry: Increased by 1.87% with a turnover of 270.81 billion yuan, up 25.38% from the previous day, led by Guoke Tiancai with a rise of 20.00% [1] - Banking: Increased by 0.39% with a turnover of 85.78 billion yuan, down 16.15% from the previous day, led by Qingdao Bank with a rise of 3.07% [1] - Coal: Increased by 0.25% with a turnover of 32.42 billion yuan, down 52.51% from the previous day, led by Zhongmei Energy with a rise of 1.76% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Beauty and Personal Care: Decreased by 1.87% with a turnover of 66.24 billion yuan, down 1.28% from the previous day, led by Kexin Co. with a decline of 8.84% [2] - Basic Chemicals: Decreased by 0.79% with a turnover of 326.48 billion yuan, down 16.66% from the previous day, led by Ningxin New Materials with a decline of 10.35% [2] - Public Utilities: Decreased by 0.70% with a turnover of 168.97 billion yuan, down 12.43% from the previous day, led by Jinkong Electric Power with a decline of 6.19% [2] Summary of Key Stocks - Leading stocks in the defense sector included Guoke Tiancai with a significant increase of 20.00% [1] - In the banking sector, Qingdao Bank showed a modest increase of 3.07% [1] - In the coal sector, Zhongmei Energy rose by 1.76% [1] - The largest decline in the beauty sector was seen in Kexin Co. with a drop of 8.84% [2] - Ningxin New Materials in the basic chemicals sector fell by 10.35% [2] - Jinkong Electric Power in public utilities decreased by 6.19% [2]

Summary of Financing Balances by Industry Core Insights - As of May 21, the total market financing balance is 1,798.96 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 1.784 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Nine industries reported an increase in financing balances, with the power equipment sector seeing the largest increase of 0.568 billion yuan [1] - A total of 22 industries experienced a decrease in financing balances, with non-bank financials, public utilities, and banks showing the most significant declines [1] Industry Performance - **Power Equipment**: Latest financing balance is 1,266.92 billion yuan, increased by 0.568 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.45% [1] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Latest financing balance is 778.64 billion yuan, increased by 0.556 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.72% [1] - **Automotive**: Latest financing balance is 890.29 billion yuan, increased by 0.441 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.50% [1] - **Environmental Protection**: Latest financing balance is 143.63 billion yuan, increased by 0.072 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.51% [1] - **Public Utilities**: Latest financing balance is 416.52 billion yuan, decreased by 0.505 billion yuan, with a decline rate of 1.20% [2] - **Non-Bank Financials**: Latest financing balance is 1,558.65 billion yuan, decreased by 0.606 billion yuan, with a decline rate of 0.39% [2] Overall Trends - The non-ferrous metals industry had the highest increase in financing balance percentage-wise, while public utilities, coal, and oil & petrochemicals had the largest declines [1][2] - The overall trend indicates a mixed performance across various sectors, with some industries gaining traction while others are experiencing significant reductions in financing [1]