Market Overview - On June 13, stock indices in China experienced a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points, closing down 0.75% at 3377 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index dropped over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 150.41 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 20 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Sectors such as media, retail, liquor, automotive, pharmaceuticals, and real estate declined, while the oil sector surged [1] Military Trade Opportunities - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's airstrikes on Iran, has created new opportunities in the military trade market [2] - Global military spending is projected to increase for the tenth consecutive year in 2024, with the highest growth rates seen in Europe and the Middle East [2] - China's military exports are transitioning from low-end to high-end weaponry, with increasing international recognition of domestic military products [2] Oil Price Volatility - Current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, are driving significant fluctuations in oil prices [3] - The next OPEC+ meeting on July 6 is crucial, as the group's production strategy may change in response to high oil prices [3] - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $70 and $100 per barrel in the short term, depending on demand and OPEC+ production levels [3] AI Industry Growth - As of May 2025, the daily usage of tokens for the Doubao large model exceeded 16.4 trillion, a growth of over 137 times since its launch last year [4] - Oracle anticipates a growth rate of over 40% for its overall cloud business in the 2026 fiscal year, with IaaS growth exceeding 70% [4] - The surge in AI-related activities indicates a high level of industry vitality, suggesting continued investment in the computing power supply chain [4] Medical Supplies Procurement Optimization - The State Council meeting on June 13 discussed optimizing drug and medical supplies procurement policies to enhance collaboration in the healthcare sector [5] - The meeting emphasized the need for better evaluation of procurement policies and improving the quality control of drugs and medical supplies [5][6] - Optimizing procurement rules is expected to benefit the medical supplies industry, particularly high-value supplies, by stabilizing market confidence [6] Real Estate Market Stabilization - The State Council meeting also focused on strategies to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of a new development model [7] - Policies will be implemented to support the construction of quality housing and improve the overall effectiveness of existing policies [7] - The aim is to activate demand and optimize supply in the real estate sector to prevent further declines [7] Infrastructure Development - The "Two Heavy" construction projects are accelerating, focusing on national strategic implementation and safety capabilities [8] - Significant progress is being made in the construction of key railway and port projects, supported by various facilitation measures [8] Brain-Computer Interface Clinical Trials - China has successfully conducted its first prospective clinical trial of an invasive brain-computer interface, becoming the second country after the U.S. to enter this phase [9] Red-Chip Stock Listing in Shenzhen - New policies allow companies listed in Hong Kong to also list in Shenzhen, which is expected to enhance financial collaboration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [10] - This initiative is anticipated to boost investor confidence in China's capital markets and facilitate the return of quality tech companies to the A-share market [10]

全球股市巨震。 6月13日，亚太主要股指集体走低，日经225指数收盘跌0.89%报37834.25点，韩国综合指数跌0.87%报2894.62点，新西兰标普50指数跌0.76%报12552.87点。 受中东地缘局势急剧升温影响，国际油价大幅拉升，WTI原油主力合约盘中一度涨超14%，最高升至77.62美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约一度涨超13%，最高升至 78.5美元/桶。国内方面，上海原油主力合约一度涨停。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间12日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。13日早间，以色列国防军发言人埃菲·戴弗林发布视频声明称，当天凌晨以军共出动超过 200架战机参与对伊朗的首轮空袭，其间共投下330多枚弹药，打死了伊朗高级军事领导人以及其他指挥官。他同时称，过去几小时内，伊朗方面向以色列发射了 100多架无人机，目前以军正在努力拦截这些无人机。 A股市场全线回调，深证成指、创业板指跌逾1%；港股亦走弱，恒生科技指数跌近2%。截至收盘，沪指放量跌0.75%报3377点，深证成指跌1.1%报10122.11点，创 业板指跌1.13%报2043.82点，北证50指数跌2.92%，沪深北三市合计成交15041亿 ...

2025.6.9 市场逻辑精选 特别提示:下文涉及的题材或公司,内容罗列和篇幅长短,与后续涨跌无关,亦 均非进行推荐,仅作研究辅助。投资者应自主决策,注意风险。 一、机会前瞻 人形机器人:Figure Al 发布演示视频,华为将举办开发者大会 �事件: 1）2025 年 6 月 7 日，Figure Al 展示了其 Helix 神经网络在物流作业 中实现了 60 分钟连续工作；Helix 如今能够处理更多样化、更复杂的包裹类型， 其操作速度和灵活性已开始接近人类水平。 2）2025年 6 月 20 日,华为将举办开发者大会,或将公布其具身智能领域最新 进展。 3) 据网络调研信息, 2025 年 6 月 16 日, 华为将公布其人形机器人 Demo（未 证实)。 ◇Figure Al: Helix 神经网络集成了触觉和短期记忆, System1 引入了隐式立体 视觉（相比非立体基线吞吐量提高 60%），提供了丰富的 3D 理解和精确的深度 感知运动。多尺度视觉表示使其能够处理细粒度细节和场景级理解。学习型视觉 本体感知允许机器人进行自我校准,从而实现无缝跨机器人转移。 ◇华为机器人：2024年11月，华为（深 ...

消息面上，今日午后，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取修改加 征的从价关税等系列举措。 券商板块拉升 券商板块盘中强势拉升，截至收盘，锦龙股份涨8.5%，盘中一度涨停；华鑫股份、东方财富、中国银 河等涨超4%，中信证券涨近3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | . | 涨幅% | 现价 | 张跌 | 头价 | 卖价 | 总量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000712 锦龙股份 | | R | 8.53 | 12.60 | 0.99 | 12.59 | 12.60 | 685177 | | 600621 | 华鑫股份 | R | 4.97 | 14.16 | 0.67 | 14.16 | 14.17 | 385028 | | 300059 | 东方财富 | R | 4.27 | 21.72 | 0.89 | 21.72 | | 524.9万 | | 601881 | 中国银河 | R | 4.23 | 16.50 | 0.67 | 16.50 | | 16.51 120.4万 | | 0026 ...

A股今日全线走高，沪指涨近1%，创业板指涨近3%；港股尾盘飙升，恒生指数目前涨超3%，恒生科技指数暴涨约6%。富时中国A50指数期货直线拉升一度涨 超2%。 具体来看，两市主要股指盘中单边上行，深证成指、创业板指尤为强势。截至收盘，沪指涨0.82%报3369.24点，深证成指涨1.72%报10301.16点，创业板指涨2.63% 报2064.71点，北证50指数涨2.89%，沪深北三市合计成交13410亿元，较此前一日增加近1200亿元。 场内超4100股飘红，券商板块拉升，锦龙股份盘中一度涨停，东方财富、中国银河等涨超4%；军贸概念再度爆发，中航成飞、航天南湖、华如科技等20%涨停；人 形机器人概念活跃，拓斯达20%涨停，埃夫特涨超13%；苹果概念崛起，东尼电子、朝阳科技等涨停。 港股方面，截至发稿，舜宇光学科技、比亚迪电子涨超15%，联想集团涨超10%，京东集团、快手、阿里巴巴、招商银行、中国人寿等涨超5%。 消息面上，今日午后，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取修改加征的从价关税等系列举措。 券商板块拉升 军贸概念爆发 军贸概念盘中大幅拉升，截至收盘，中航成飞、航天南 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Military Trade Investment Opportunities Amidst India-Pakistan Conflict Industry Overview - The conference discusses the military trade (military trade) industry, particularly focusing on China's military exports and the implications of the India-Pakistan conflict on military trade dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - The India-Pakistan conflict highlights the practical capabilities of Chinese military products, potentially expanding the market for Chinese weapon systems and attracting more international customers [1]. - China's military exports are transitioning from single weapon systems to integrated combat equipment, such as armored brigade systems, which significantly enhances international competitiveness [1]. - In 2023, China's military export share reached 8.4%, indicating growth potential compared to companies like Lockheed Martin [1][13]. - The conflict may lead to increased demand for drones, with manufacturers like Aerospace Rainbow and Zhongyun Drone benefiting from potential high consumption rates [1][22]. - The military trade investment focus for 2025 includes restructuring, military trade, and new domains, with an emphasis on unmanned systems and long-range artillery [1][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - The military trade landscape is influenced by geopolitical tensions, with small nations relying on imports due to insufficient domestic capabilities, which may drive demand for Chinese military products [6][9]. - The importance of military technology dual-use (civilian and military applications) is emphasized as a long-term investment opportunity [3][17]. - The valuation of China's defense industry may improve due to increased military cooperation and exports, similar to the revenue models of major U.S. defense contractors [5][17]. - Challenges such as payment capabilities in regions like the Middle East and Africa may affect the sustainability of military trade orders [6]. - The comprehensive capabilities of Chinese military systems, including missiles, radars, and integrated systems, provide a competitive edge in the international market [3][8][18]. Notable Companies and Products - Key Chinese military companies mentioned include: - **Land Equipment**: Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (tanks), Aerospace Rainbow (drones), and various aircraft manufacturers like Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation [7][20]. - **Missile Systems**: China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (long-range artillery) and China North Industries Group Corporation [7][20]. - **Data Link Technology**: Companies like 712 Institute and Raytheon Power are highlighted for their contributions to integrated military systems [7][20]. Future Trends - The future of military trade will focus on integrated combat systems, with a significant emphasis on the export of comprehensive military capabilities rather than individual products [19]. - Drones are expected to become critical consumables in future conflicts, with manufacturers poised to benefit from increased demand [22]. - The military trade landscape is likely to evolve with changing geopolitical dynamics, impacting procurement decisions globally [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan are expected to stimulate the Chinese military industry, particularly in the context of military trade and investment opportunities [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Military Sector - The conflict in the Kashmir region is closely linked to China, as Pakistan is a significant importer of Chinese military equipment, with 63.02% of China's military exports to Pakistan over the past five years [1]. - The recent policy signals from the Chinese government, including potential interest rate cuts, are likely to improve market risk appetite, providing a supportive environment for the military sector [2]. - The ongoing escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict may lead to a sustained period of heightened military activity, similar to past geopolitical events that have positively influenced military stocks [3]. Group 2: Long-term Military Trade Dynamics - The high dependency of Pakistan on Chinese military imports, especially in high-value sectors like aerospace and naval equipment, positions China favorably in the global military trade landscape [5]. - The current global geopolitical uncertainties, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, are expected to enhance the demand for military trade, potentially leading to a shift in China's military export strategy from focusing on domestic needs to international markets [5]. - The military trade market in China is anticipated to experience continuous growth, driven by both domestic production capabilities and international demand, particularly as the country aligns its military exports with the Belt and Road Initiative [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the military trade (military trade) industry, particularly China's military exports and the implications of geopolitical conflicts, especially between India and Pakistan [1][3][4][6][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Stock Market Performance**: Chengfei's stock price volatility reached ±20% after its backdoor listing through AVIC Electromechanical, indicating high market interest in its military assets [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Context**: The India-Pakistan conflict highlighted the complex relationship between Chinese military trade and international geopolitics, with Pakistan utilizing Chinese-made J-10 and JF-17 fighter jets during the conflict [1][4][5][7]. - **Export Strategy Shift**: China's military export strategy has evolved to focus on advanced equipment rather than downgraded versions, aiming for practical testing to enhance overall military capabilities [1][18]. - **Major Export Markets**: Pakistan is the largest recipient of Chinese military equipment, accounting for approximately 42% of China's military exports, which includes advanced systems like the J-10CE and JF-17 [1][8][9]. - **International Orders**: During the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, China secured around $40 billion in orders, showcasing significant progress in military equipment exports [1][16]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The military industry is currently experiencing strong performance, with the CITIC Military Industry Index ranking first among all sectors, driven by strong reactions from companies in the Chengfei and military trade supply chains [2]. - **Future Opportunities**: The military trade market has potential for growth, especially if the U.S. experiences a significant decline in its military trade dominance, which could create a critical point for Chinese military exports [3]. - **Technological Developments**: The 2024 Zhuhai Airshow featured advanced military equipment like the J-35, indicating a push towards international markets [1][12][20]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies to watch include those in radar products (Aerospace Nanhu and Guorui Technology), missile sectors (Philihua, New Power, etc.), and fighter jets (Chengfei, AVIC Shenyang, etc.) due to their strategic importance and potential for market share growth [21][24]. Conclusion - The military trade industry is at a pivotal moment, influenced by geopolitical tensions and evolving export strategies. The focus on advanced military technology and significant international orders positions China favorably in the global military trade landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of stock performance in the export chain, particularly highlighting the importance of earnings seasons for price movements and the need for companies to deliver on EPS expectations to drive stock prices upward [2][8][12]. Export Chain Performance - The stock performance of export chain companies tends to rise during earnings seasons, with a focus on EPS growth rather than valuation increases [2][8]. - As of March 2024, many companies in the export chain have seen their PE ratios fall to a favorable range of 10-15X, indicating potential for upward movement as earnings reports approach [11][12]. - Key sectors such as transformers, wind power equipment, motorcycles, air conditioners, injection molding machines, buses, and hand tools/electric tools have shown over 10% growth in exports during January-February 2024 [12][15]. Machinery Sector - The machinery sector is characterized by cyclical demand, with overseas durable goods and industrial products showing strong competitive advantages [19][20]. - Companies like Juxing Technology and Quanfeng Holdings are recommended for their strong positions in overseas durable goods, while SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others are highlighted for their industrial products [21][22]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing a shift due to U.S. tariffs, which have accelerated the competitive landscape, benefiting leading companies with overseas production capabilities [30][34]. - Companies such as Xinbao, Ousheng Electric, and Dechang are recommended for their high export ratios to the U.S. and strong growth prospects [35][38]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is expected to face challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in export amounts due to increased tariffs from the U.S. [39][44]. - However, many companies have global production layouts that help mitigate the impact of trade tensions, with some benefiting from large customer orders [44][45]. Military Industry - The military industry is poised for growth due to global demand for military equipment and the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe [47][50]. - Companies like Guorui Technology and Aerospace South Lake are highlighted for their potential in military trade, with a focus on global expansion opportunities [48][56].