陈雪怡 仿佛3D打印出来的昌江阿鲁斯网纹瓜、长着"五只脚"的五指山五脚猪……它们都是海南的"明星"农 特产品，也是"海南鲜品"成员。近日，省政府召开专题会议，研究"海南鲜品"农产品区域公用品牌提升 工作，明确提出"将农产品从土特产升级为有故事、有标准、有体验的品牌商品、品牌礼品"，为"海南 鲜品"升级、出圈进一步明确了方向。 您印象深刻的海南农产品都有哪些?是不是有三亚芒果、兴隆咖啡、文昌椰子、保亭红毛丹、琼中 绿橙……翻开"海南鲜品"品类名录，不仅有土里种的，还有地上跑的、水里游的，足见"海南鲜品"家庭 庞大、成员众多。在各地农业向产业化发展、向品牌化发力的同时，海南发展热带特色高效农业，就要 凸显海南特色，大力培育创建用得广、叫得响、立得住、走得远的农业品牌，擦亮"海南鲜品"金字招 牌，更好推动海南农业强省建设。 市场营销"新"，是增强"海南鲜品"吸引力的法宝。不断升级的消费理念和需求，让人们不再局限于 满足口腹之欲，因此品牌推广、市场营销也不能"循规蹈矩"，满足于在各个平台"吆喝两声"便完事，必 须创新方式方法、讲好"海南鲜品"故事。比如，海南日报报业集团发挥融媒生产优势，推出创意视频 《海南鲜品陵水荔 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 国际贸易情绪紧张，软商品观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-15 报告内容摘要: 盘面：美白糖收 15.57，涨跌幅-3.29%。美棉花收 63.54，涨跌幅-0.36%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8681.0 张，涨跌幅为 0.00%；郑棉仓单 2867.0 张， 涨跌幅为 0.00%。 结论： 白糖：8 月份内蒙古降雨偏多，不利于甜菜糖分积累及起收，糖厂开机时间 推迟，对甜菜糖产量的影响需进一步跟踪评估。9 月底 10 月初广东 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds rotating rapidly between high - and low - priced stocks, and market risk appetite has decreased. Although short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns over Sino - US tariffs, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term risk aversion due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes is conducive to bond market repair. However, the fourth - quarter bond market still needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation forces. Overall, it may maintain a volatile trend [8]. - For precious metals, although prices have fallen after a short - term sharp rise, it is still recommended to hold long positions. There is a possibility of a short - term correction in silver prices, but there is also room for further increase in the future [10]. - In the有色金属 market, the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some metals are expected to have limited downside, while others may face short - term fluctuations [12][13][14][15]. - In the black building materials market, Trump's new tariff remarks have disturbed the market, and short - term steel demand is weak. However, in the long - term, the overall trend is unchanged under a loosening macro - environment. The black sector may have a rebound opportunity after a short - term decline [35][38][46]. - In the energy and chemical market, most products are affected by factors such as Sino - US trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - environment. Different products have different price trends and trading strategies [54][59][61]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by trade relations, while others are affected by seasonal factors and consumption trends [81][85][88]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand; Shanghai released an action plan for the intelligent terminal industry; the central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan repurchase operation; JPMorgan Chase will provide up to $1.5 trillion in financing for key US industries [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence. Short - term indices face uncertainties due to Sino - US tariff concerns, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: Bond prices rose on Tuesday. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and the Ministry of Commerce took counter - measures against South Korean companies. The central bank conducted a 91 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term risk aversion is conducive to bond market repair, but the fourth - quarter bond market still needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation forces. It may maintain a volatile trend [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices rose. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks supported precious metal prices. COMEX silver inventory decreased, and the spread between COMEX silver and London silver narrowed [9][10]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 921 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 10962 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Sino - US trade relations affected copper prices. LME copper prices fell, and domestic copper prices also declined. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper warehouse receipts increased slightly [12]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. Fundamentals support copper prices, and short - term price decline may be limited. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84000 - 85800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10450 - 10750 US dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Market sentiment weakened, and aluminum prices corrected. LME aluminum prices fell, and domestic aluminum prices also declined. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20980 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2700 - 2780 US dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices fell. LME zinc prices declined, and domestic zinc prices also decreased. LME zinc inventory decreased, and domestic zinc social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, domestic zinc production and consumption were normal. LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and risk volatility will increase [17][18]. Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices fell. LME lead prices declined, and domestic lead prices also decreased. LME lead inventory decreased, and domestic lead social inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and lead ingot factory inventory accumulated. After Trump's tariff threat, short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and risk volatility will increase [20]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated downward. Spot market transactions were average, and nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable [21]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - term, nickel prices are supported by US easing expectations and domestic policies. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider going long on dips [22]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fell. Domestic tin warehouse receipts decreased, and tin concentrate prices also declined. Supply was tight, and demand was mixed [23][24]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down market sentiment, but tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices may remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices were stable. Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were unchanged [25]. - **Strategy**: After the sharp reduction of warehouse receipts, the market opened higher but then fell. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2601 contract is 71000 - 74500 yuan/ton [26]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Warehouse receipts increased [27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Warehouse receipts decreased [29][30]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, social inventory accumulated, and terminal consumption was weak. The market is expected to be weak [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell slightly. Trading volume decreased, and warehouse receipts increased [32]. - **Strategy**: Market sentiment is unstable, and the delivery pressure on near - month contracts is large, so prices are under pressure [33]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Steel prices fell. Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, and inventory increased [35]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff remarks have disturbed the market. Short - term steel demand is weak, but in the long - term, the overall trend is unchanged under a loosening macro - environment. Attention should be paid to policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [38]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Warehouse receipts increased [39]. - **Strategy**: Supply has a seasonal decline, and demand is relatively stable. Short - term, iron ore prices may fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" demand after the replenishment [40]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: Glass prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Inventory increased [41]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure [42]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: Soda ash prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Inventory increased [43]. - **Strategy**: The domestic soda ash market is weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to decline [44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased [45]. - **Strategy**: The black sector may have a similar price trend to 2023. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are relatively stable [48]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, pay attention to end - of - option games. In the long - term, prices may increase due to reduced supply and increased cost support [49]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Polysilicon prices rose. Futures prices increased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Supply and demand are under pressure [50]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Mid - term, the supply - demand situation may improve after November [51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were weak. Market expectations were uncertain, and tire开工率 decreased [54][56]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may fall for 1 - 3 days. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term. Consider partial hedging [58]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices fell. Related refined oil prices also declined. Port inventory data showed mixed trends [59]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [60]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply pressure is large, and demand is weak [61]. - **Strategy**: The current short - selling cost - effectiveness is not high. It is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals may improve marginally [61]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [62][63]. - **Strategy**: It is currently in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply and demand are mixed [64]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices are falling, and the basis is strengthening. Benzene prices may stop falling temporarily [65]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply is strong, and demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies as the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen in the fourth quarter [69]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply and demand are relatively stable [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see as the supply - demand situation is balanced, but the valuation needs to be improved [72]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are under pressure [73]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see as the market lacks a driving force, but the downside space is limited [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are mixed [75]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level as the cost - side support is weakening, and inventory is high [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are weak [77]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are under pressure due to high inventory and cost - side supply surplus [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices showed mixed trends. Secondary fattening enthusiasm is slowly increasing, and prices may rise slightly [81]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, supply pressure is large, but the risk before the Spring Festival has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads after the spot stabilizes [82]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable. Supply was normal, and trading volume increased [83]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to be bearish on near - month contracts. Mid - term, there may be a rebound, and long - term, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans fell. Domestic soybean meal prices decreased, and inventory continued to decline [85]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may fluctuate in a range due to supply - demand contradictions and trade concerns. Mid - term, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [87]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export data increased, and domestic oil prices rebounded. Supply and demand are balanced, and there is an expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year [88]. - **Strategy**: Mid - term, it is recommended to buy on dips. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see due to weak market sentiment [89]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Sugar mills in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have started production [90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the fourth quarter as there is an expectation of increased production [91]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Downstream开机率 was low, and inventory was relatively low [92]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, cotton prices are likely to fall due to weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors [93].

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2025年10月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易担忧情绪再起，或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：有所反弹 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：短期平稳，关注国际经贸形势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡运行 | 10 | | 生猪：现货底部未现 | 11 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,330 | -0.36% | 9,3 ...

【行情分析】： 玉米：新季玉米已陆续上市，国庆期间市场收购价大幅下调。短期来看，受粮源集中上市影响，玉米价格仍将维持弱势。中长期需重点关注产 区农户与贸易商的博弈，当前新季玉米产量增加、种植成本下滑，价格已逐步向种植成本靠拢；但鉴于当前绝对价格偏低且今年粮质较好，若 价格出现大幅回调，预计将触发农户抗价惜售情绪，进而带动玉米价格迎来反弹。 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/15 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/30 | 2230 | 2190 | 2264 | 2440 | 47 | 115 306 | 2750 | 2850 | 237 | 9 | | 2025/10/09 | 2110 | 2130 | 2150 | 2410 | -8 | 145 290 | 2750 | 28 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 鲍威尔暗示再次降息,央行开展了 910 亿元 7 天期逆回购操 国务院总理召开经济形势专家座谈会 综 10 月 14 日股市再度收跌，且市场明显放量。关税战的不确定性 存在滞后和长尾效应，从近期美国表态看，后续会将有更多谈 判，静待局势变化。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 910 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 中美贸易关系应当是债市的一个增量利多，若能够确认权益市 场高位盘整，那么债市将会迎来小幅上涨的行情。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 鲍威尔暗示再次降息 鲍威尔最新的表态美联储需要再次降息并停止缩表，这意味着 货币政策宽松趋势不会改变，美元指数走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-10-15 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 10 月上旬重点钢企粗钢日产 203.2 万吨 钢价延续弱势，铁矿价格出现走弱也带来成本端下移的风险。 成材库存压力仍存，高铁水下，国庆假期后去库高度依赖需求 的回归，依然建议谨慎对待钢价。 IEA 月报略下调全球需求增长预测 油价下跌，过剩担忧打压油价。 | 王心彤 | 资深分析师 | （黑色金属） | | - ...

海南省商务厅表示，下一步将联合市县政府、行业主管部门和海关，加强跟踪服务，指导海南自由贸易 港自产货物企业做好与加工增值备案企业的购销、测算等工作，全力支持企业拓展更多的加工增值备案 企业客户。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 封关运作后，加工增值备案企业使用经认定的海南自产货物，可以按规定在计算增值率时，从境内采购 料件价格中扣除海南自产货物价格，纳入增值成分。 中新网海口10月14日电(记者王子谦)记者14日从海南省商务厅自由贸易港改革发展处获悉，海南省首批 纳入《经认定的海南自产货物企业(货物)名录》的企业(货物)名单发布，澄迈、保亭、乐东、东方4个市 县的4家企业共5种货物入选。 本次纳入的4家企业的自产货物为咖啡豆、椰子、日晒腌制盐、小包装食盐和精制盐。建立供货关系的 加工增值备案企业采购使用名单内企业的自产货物，自2025年12月18日起可被纳入增值成分。这是为封 关运作后企业适用政策提前做准备，以便企业第一时间享惠。 经认定的海南自产货物企业(货物)，是指依据《海南自由贸易港加工增值免关税政策项下海南自产货物 认定管理暂行办法》，予以认定的在海南自由贸易港生产加工并被加工增值备案企业采购使用、纳 ...

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CFC商品策略研究 . 以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险， 也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻 辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 与4月交锋的三大核心差异： 预期差异-本次交锋的意外性远低于4月，市场对双方行动已有一定预期，市场对于美国虚张声势和朝令 夕改有所预期。 估值环境-当前商品和权益资产的估值水平明显高于4月，直接V型反转的概率有限。但仍旧存在TACO(*) 交易的机会，既源自于关税政策的多变性，关税威胁等政策导致市场下跌时，交易者逢低买入资产。 *TACO（Trump Always Chickens Out）交易：当特朗普政府出台关税威胁等政策导致市场下跌时，交 易者逢低买入资产。一旦政策因市场压力或政治因素出现缓和，市场反弹，即可获利。这一策略源于特 朗普关税政策的反复性，例如其多次宣布加征关税。 叙事定价-此前"宏大叙事"题材已被市场充分定价，注意力开始转向基本面，商品分化是大概率。然而， 基本面强劲的商品依然稀缺 ...