[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月23日 [关注节后商品补库存行情，持续看好科 Table_NewTitle] 技应用方向不变 ——资产配置周报（2026/02/16-2026/02/20） [table_main] 投资要点 略 研 究 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 策 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。春节假期期间，全球股市多数收涨，美国最高法院裁定特朗普贸易关 税非法提振风险偏好；主要商品期货中原油、黄金、铜、铝均上涨；美元指数上涨，离岸 ...

由于订单多、需求旺，春节期间，全国最大的碳纤维生产基地——吉林化纤集团的碳纤维生产车间内，工人们依旧在赶订单、忙生产。 01:10 碳纤维又称"黑色黄金""新材料之王"，比重不到钢的1/4，强度却是钢的7-9倍，是航空航天、能源、交通、体育运动等领域的重要新材料。 记者：唐成卓、王帆 新华社音视频部制作 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant performance of six leading companies in the chemical fiber industry, with stock prices increasing by over 30% since mid-December 2025 [3][4] - The six leading companies include Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ), Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ), Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ), and Xin Fengming (603225.SH) [3] - The article notes that the performance of the chemical fiber industry, particularly polyester filament, has shown significant differentiation over the past five years, with ordinary polyester industrial yarn experiencing the most price volatility [4][6] Group 2 - Among the six leading companies, Hengli Petrochemical achieved a net profit of 15.5 billion in 2021, while in the downturn of 2024, Dongfang Shenghong reported a loss of nearly 2.3 billion [6]

财报分析 公司2025年业绩预告显示，预计全年归母净利润亏损7000万元至1.1亿元，营业收入低于3亿元，可能触 发退市风险警示。亏损主因粘胶短纤产品价格与成本持续倒挂，以及PET业务虽毛利率改善但仍未覆盖 费用。2025年前三季度公司已亏损5205.85万元，负债率达71.26%。 经济观察网南京化纤（600889）重大资产重组取得关键进展，交易于2026年1月7日获上交所审核通过， 预计2026年上半年完成交割。本次重组采用"资产置换+发行股份购买资产+募集配套资金"方式，彻底 剥离亏损化纤业务，置入南京工艺装备制造股份有限公司100%股权，转型高端装备制造领域。标的公 司南京工艺为国内滚动功能部件龙头，承诺2025-2027年净利润累计不低于4.2亿元，估值16.07亿元。 股票近期走势 近7个交易日(2026年2月7日至13日)，南京化纤股价震荡上行，截至2月13日收盘报16.67元，累计上涨 1.34%。2月12日股价下跌1.03%，主力资金净流出402.55万元；但2月13日反弹至16.67元，当日涨幅 1.77%，主力资金转为净流入441.16万元。期间成交额逐步放大，2月13日达6615万元， ...

Group 1 - The Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau has implemented a regular visiting mechanism for listed companies, achieving full coverage of over 400 companies since 2024, aiming to support high-quality development in the region [2][3] - During visits, the bureau addressed over 300 operational issues raised by companies, including production, tax subsidies, and financing needs, while promoting policies to support technology and mergers [3][4] - In 2025, the revised regulations on major asset restructuring were implemented, leading to a significant increase in the number of companies disclosing major asset restructurings, with 26 cases reported, more than three times that of 2024 [3] Group 2 - The bureau has encouraged companies to stabilize market confidence through stock buybacks, cash dividends, and investor relations management, with over 100 companies announcing buyback plans totaling nearly 15 billion yuan [6] - New regulations were introduced to enhance corporate governance, with the bureau providing training and guidance to improve compliance and internal controls among listed companies [6][8] - Approximately 270 companies distributed cash dividends exceeding 1 trillion yuan, representing over 45% of the total market share, with 75 companies announcing mid-term dividends totaling about 620 billion yuan, marking a historical high [8][9] Group 3 - The bureau has actively engaged with state-owned enterprises and key companies to promote mid-term dividends, successfully encouraging 28 companies to implement this practice [9] - The focus on risk management has led to proactive measures to address potential delisting risks for companies facing financial difficulties, with interventions to facilitate capital recovery [12][14] - The bureau has emphasized the importance of enhancing investor returns and internal governance, with significant cash dividends and buyback support provided to listed companies [15][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the geopolitical risks in Iran, there are still risks in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA production in January expected to reach a new high and no production cut plan for the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply remains tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene spread remains around $150, and although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative feedback on PTA. Bottle chip profits are expanding, while short - fiber profits are declining [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5140 to 5180, a change of 40; MEG inner - market price increased from 3623 to 3652, a change of 29; PTA closing price increased from 5230 to 5260, a change of 30; MEG closing price increased from 3733 to 3764, a change of 31; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6585 to 6590, a change of 5; short - fiber basis decreased from 52 to 16, a change of - 36; 3 - 4 spread increased from - 74 to - 66, a change of 8; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5300; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1285 to 1290, a change of 5; East China water bottle chip price increased from 6270 to 6275, a change of 5; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6270 to 6275, a change of 5; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6370 to 6375, a change of 5; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 840 to 845, a change of 5; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 662 to 623, a change of - 39; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10700; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4115 to 4110, a change of - 5; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16800; cotton 328 price increased from 15710 to 15765, a change of 55; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1496 to 1472, a change of - 24; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 7290; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 482 to 438, a change of - 44; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main short - fiber futures rose 42 to 6654. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were mainly stagnant, the prices of traders fluctuated within a range, downstream demand was weak, and on - site transactions were sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6470 - 6700 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6590 - 6820 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6550 - 6750 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6280 - 6360 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The futures prices of PTA and bottle chips fluctuated warmly. Most supply - side offers were raised, the market's spot supply was tight, downstream terminal demand was relatively weak, and the market negotiation focus increased [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07%; the polyester staple fiber sales ratio decreased from 38.00% to 31.00%, a change of - 7.00%; the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing a recovery in processing fees, leading to increased production activity and rising operating rates, which in turn is creating supply pressure [2][3][4] Group 1: Industry Supply and Demand Dynamics - PTA processing fees have rebounded to a normal level of 400 yuan/ton after hitting a historical low of 80 yuan/ton, prompting a recovery in production and a potential increase in operating rates [2] - Domestic PTA operating rates are currently at a three-year low, down 6.04 percentage points year-on-year, but the weekly production has reached 1.46 million tons due to increased capacity [2] - As of February 5, domestic PTA social inventory rose to 3.25 million tons, an increase of 3.55% from the previous week, indicating a return to a phase of inventory accumulation [3] Group 2: Impact on Downstream Industries - The polyester sector, particularly polyester filament and bottle-grade polyester, has seen some profit improvement due to the recent profit redistribution in the chemical fiber industry [4] - Despite the profit recovery, downstream polyester production rates are declining, with polyester enterprises operating at 77.93%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year, and weaving industry operating rates at 27%, down 22 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - High inventory levels in polyester filament products compared to the previous year are creating de-inventory pressure, which may affect the pace of enterprise resumption after the Spring Festival [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The PTA market remains in a state of oversupply, with price increases viewed as a rebound rather than a sustainable trend, as the underlying issue of supply exceeding demand persists [4] - The combination of profit recovery and raw material support has led to a rebound in PTA futures prices since November, but the accumulation of inventory alongside increased operating rates suggests a return to a weaker market position [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09% closing at 4131.99 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% to 14160.93 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.08% to 3284.74 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 200.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 123.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Various industry sectors experienced mixed results, with glass fiber, energy metals, and precious metals leading in gains, while cultural media, education, and tourism sectors faced declines [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities reported that in 2025, the consumption of gold bars and coins in China is expected to surpass that of gold jewelry for the first time, indicating a structural shift in the gold market [2] - The gross profit margins of gold jewelry companies may benefit from rising gold prices, although the overall market scale and future sales expectations may weaken [2] - CITIC Securities highlighted the release of the Seedance 2.0 video model by ByteDance, which is expected to revolutionize the film and television sector, particularly benefiting AI comic drama production companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to the real economy, focusing on its existing industries and forming a business structure centered around two main fields: chemicals and transportation [2] Group 1: Chemical Industry - The new materials chemical business has a production base located in Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia, with established capacities of 300,000 tons/year for BDO and 360,000 tons/year for calcium carbide [2] - Future plans include expanding production capacities for lanthanum carbon and green electricity, as well as developing new material capacities for PBAT [2] - The company aims to become a leading integrated enterprise in BDO and biodegradable plastics on a global scale [2] Group 2: Transportation Industry - The rail transportation business focuses on key regions such as the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative, including Yunnan and Sichuan [2] - The company is dedicated to the development of high-speed rail construction and urban subway projects [2] Group 3: Rubber and Chemical Fiber Industries - The rubber products and chemical fiber production bases are located in Sanmen County, with main products including rubber conveyor belts, V-belts, polyester chips, and polyester industrial yarns [2] - The company is recognized as one of the leading enterprises in the rubber conveyor belt and V-belt sectors in China [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.09%, closing at 4131.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached approximately 2 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The media sector saw a significant decline, while tourism, catering, insurance, retail, and semiconductor sectors also faced downward pressure [1] - Conversely, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemical fiber, oil, coal, steel, and chemicals showed upward movement, with the fiberglass concept experiencing a surge and lithium, rare earth, and gold concepts being active [1] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Dongguan Securities indicated that with the upcoming long holiday, market fluctuations are expected to stabilize, leading to a general trend of consolidation [1] - The market may have completed a phase of capital digestion, and regulatory bodies are emphasizing the maintenance of stability before the holiday [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for the market in the medium to long term, supported by expected consumer boosts during the Spring Festival and a generally warm policy environment [1] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to remain rational, avoiding impulsive trading behaviors, and to focus on long-term strategies while managing their positions carefully [1] - Emphasis should be placed on high-quality assets with stable fundamentals and high profit certainty, particularly in sectors related to consumer recovery, technological self-sufficiency, and high-end manufacturing [1] - Attention should also be given to the potential risks of overheating in specific themes that could lead to adjustments [1]