聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-29 成本端支撑偏强，市场延续上行 市场要闻与重要数据 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为72.5元/吨（-161.0），PP油制生产利润为-527.5元/吨（-161.0），PDH制PP生产利 润为-621.0元/吨（+44.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为365.7元/吨（-11.8），PP进口利润为-412.8元/吨（-33.1），PP出口利润为-68.1美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.3%（-0.6%），PE下游包装膜开工率为45.0%（-3.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为64.0%（+0.5%）。 市场分析 PE方面，地缘扰动加剧，成本端原油价格震荡上行，叠加近期北美寒潮影响乙烷供应价格高涨，PE成本端支撑持 续，聚烯烃市场情绪仍高涨；基本面情况看，供应端，短期包括中化泉州、茂名石化等重启装置偏多，PE供应端 存回升预期；需求端，PE下游延续淡季特征，下游整体开工延续下滑，下游工厂采购力度有所减弱，其中农膜需 求淡季，包装膜开工亦同期偏低，节前下游订单跟进情况仍显不足。整体看塑料供需格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is in the off - season, and the cost and capital sentiment are the main drivers of the market. For PP, the cost support is strengthening, but the demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4][5] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for LLDPE, and cautiously buy PP on dips for hedging. The LLDPE - PP spread should be shorted when it is high [6] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L主力合约 closed at 6899 yuan/ton (-36), and the PP主力合约 closed at 6709 yuan/ton (-28). The LL North China spot was 6760 yuan/ton (-40), the LL East China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (-20), and the PP East China spot was 6520 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was -139 yuan/ton (-4), the LL East China basis was -19 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis was -189 yuan/ton (+28) [2] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.7% (+3.1%), and PP operating rate was 76.0% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 233.6 yuan/ton (+129.4), PP oil - based production profit was -386.4 yuan/ton (+129.4), and PDH - based PP production profit was -665.0 yuan/ton (+50.8) [2] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was 377.4 yuan/ton (+109.5), PP import profit was -379.7 yuan/ton (-3.8), and PP export profit was -67.0 US dollars/ton (-10.2) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 36.3% (-0.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 45.0% (-3.2), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (-0.6), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.0% (+0.5) [3] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. The fundamentals currently focus on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices also supports chemicals at the cost end. Overall, the current spot drive for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6974, 6935, and 6962 respectively, with increases of 88, 70, and 75 and涨幅 of 1.28%, 1.02%, and 1.09% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6716, 6737, and 6778 respectively, with increases of 71, 81, and 90 and涨幅 of 1.07%, 1.22%, and 1.35% respectively [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL January, May, and September contracts were 137, 611978, and 42216 respectively, and the open interests were 187, 515013, and 69905 respectively, with open interest changes of 35, -4043, and 4941 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 468, 524463, and 40252 respectively, and the open interests were 2132, 521131, and 106892 respectively, with open interest changes of 134, 22199, and 7638 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 39, -27, and -12 respectively, compared to the previous values of 21, -22, and 1. For PP, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -21, -41, and 62 respectively, compared to the previous values of -11, -32, and 43 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2346 yuan/ton, 9350 yuan/ton, 631 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous values of 2298 yuan/ton, 6175 yuan/ton, 612 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6460 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous ranges of 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 (8100 - 8250), and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous ranges of 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] News - On Monday (January 26), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.63 per barrel, down $0.44 or 0.72% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.32 - $61.71. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.59 per barrel, down $0.29 or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.29 - $66.54 [2]

中化新网讯 近日，欧盟委员会推出并实施一项旨在防止塑料颗粒泄漏到环境中的相关规定。该规定适 用于欧盟境内每年处理超过5吨塑料颗粒的企业，包括制造商、回收商、加工商、批发商和其他分销 商。该规定也适用于塑料颗粒运输商，包括航运公司。相关企业必须避免、控制和清理塑料颗粒的泄 漏，并制定和实施风险管理计划。 运输商无需制定风险管理计划，但必须采取具体措施来预防、控制和应对其泄漏。每年处理超过1500吨 塑料颗粒的中型和大型企业必须获得合规证书或许可证。欧盟委员会表示，在2026年12月17日前将准备 制作宣传和培训材料。此外，要求欧洲标准化机构制定统一的排放量估算标准。 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-23 市场情绪提振，盘面大幅反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6814元/吨（+148），PP主力合约收盘价为6624元/吨（+139），LL华北现货为 6600元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为6680元/吨（+30），PP华东现货为6410元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-214元/吨（-88）， LL华东基差为-134元/吨（-118）， PP华东基差为-214元/吨（-139）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.7%（+3.1%），PP开工率为76.0%（+0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为8.4元/吨（-76.9），PP油制生产利润为-471.6元/吨（-76.9），PDH制PP生产利润 为-666.0元/吨（-21.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为125.8元/吨（+30.1），PP进口利润为-407.5元/吨（-3.9），PP出口利润为-52.8美元/吨（+5.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.3%（-0.6%），PE下游包装膜开工率为45.0%（-3.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（-0.6%），PP下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The signing of three key sub-projects at the world's largest integrated alkane production base in Fuzhou marks a significant investment of 9 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the downstream value chain of the alkane industry [2] Group 1: Project Details - The three sub-projects include: 1. A 500,000-ton woven bag project by Lihua Bo Plastics with a total investment of 2 billion yuan, establishing the shortest digestion path from propane to polypropylene to woven bags [2] 2. A 200,000-ton non-woven fabric project by Hengfan Holdings with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, focusing on high-growth areas such as medical protection and hygiene care [2] 3. A 750,000-ton BOPP project by Zhongjing Petrochemical with a total investment of 6 billion yuan, targeting packaging applications in industries like takeout and logistics [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The completion of these projects is expected to drive the upstream operations of Zhongjing Petrochemical's propane dehydrogenation and polypropylene units to achieve high-load, long-cycle, and stable operations [2] - The projects will promote the transformation and upgrading of the industry chain towards high value-added fields, leveraging synergies from local layouts to effectively reduce logistics and operational costs [2] - This initiative aims to create a highly competitive polypropylene product manufacturing base both domestically and globally, contributing significantly to regional economic growth [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - PP is expected to fluctuate within a range as its supply - demand pattern improves limitedly, downstream order cycles shorten, and downstream product profits shrink. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and falling agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Directory 行情分析 - As of the week of January 16, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 22, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing rose to around 29% [1][7] - Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the reduction has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [1][7] - Due to the temporary shutdown of an oil field in Kazakhstan, the postponed resumption of CPC3 SPM, and increased heating oil demand due to cold weather, crude oil prices have rebounded recently [1] - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of CNPC Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited as the Spring Festival holiday approaches [1] 期现行情 Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,491 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,624 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,624 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 2.43%. The open interest increased by 18,459 lots to 486,782 lots [2] Spot - Most PP spot prices in various regions rose. The wire drawing was reported at 6,200 - 6,630 yuan/ton [5] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On January 22, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing rose to around 29% [7] - Demand: As of the week of January 16, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [7] - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 10,000 tons to 540,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the reduction has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [7] 原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $785/ton week - on - week [8]

Core Insights - The company, Henan Yinjinda New Materials Co., Ltd., is actively engaged in the recycling and high-value utilization of waste polyester, transforming waste plastic bottles into high-quality recycled polyester films [1][2] - The company has invested over 1 billion yuan in research and development over five years to overcome key technical challenges in the production of recycled polyester materials, achieving a significant reduction in carbon emissions [2][3] - The company is establishing a circular economy industrial park with a total investment of 3 billion yuan, focusing on both physical and chemical recycling methods to create a closed-loop industrial chain [3] Company Development - Yinjinda has developed functional polyester materials with independent intellectual property rights, filling several domestic gaps in the market [2] - The company’s innovative approach has led to a significant increase in efficiency, reducing the average product development time from 3-6 months to as little as 1 month for some projects [3] - The company’s market share in functional polyester shrink films remains leading domestically, with products exported to 66 countries and regions [3] Environmental Impact - The technology developed by Yinjinda allows for the recycling of low-value waste plastics, achieving a lifecycle carbon emission reduction to 40% of that of virgin polyester materials [2] - The first phase of the industrial park aims to produce 60,000 tons of recycled bottle flakes and 25,000 tons of recycled films annually by the end of 2025 [3] - The second phase will focus on processing low-value waste plastics, with plans to start construction this year and complete it by 2027 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to oscillate weakly due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are newly added plastic production capacities and decreasing agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 16th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 21st, the number of maintenance devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained around 80% (a neutral - to - low level), and the drawstring production ratio rose to around 27.5%. Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but was average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years. The Iran situation has cooled, and recent crude oil prices have declined. There is a new 400,000 - ton/year production capacity from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film has rebounded, but new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited as the Spring Festival holiday approaches. The macro sentiment has faded, and the PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract oscillated with increasing positions, with a minimum price of 6446 yuan/ton, a maximum of 6491 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6485 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.42%. The open interest increased by 2082 lots to 468323 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. Drawstring PP was reported at 6150 - 6610 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 21st, the number of maintenance devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained around 80% (a neutral - to - low level), and the drawstring production ratio rose to around 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 550,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but was average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 03 rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $785 per ton week - on - week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend within a certain range due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits [1] - The L - PP price spread is expected to decline as there is new production capacity for plastics and the L开工率 is higher than that of PP, along with a continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring products, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 20, new maintenance units such as the first and second lines of Juzhengyuan Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises decreased to around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but it has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The cost of crude oil has decreased as the US has postponed military strikes against Iran and the situation in Iran has cooled down [1] - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of BOPP film in the downstream has rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PP2605 contract decreased by 0.72% in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 6461 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 4253 lots to 466,241 lots [2] - Most spot prices of PP in various regions have declined, with drawstring products priced at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 20, new maintenance units led to a decrease in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 80%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, and the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week [4] - Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Tuesday was flat at 560,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 64 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 785 US dollars per ton [6]