Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment potential in the modified plastics industry, highlighting its growth trajectory and market opportunities [10]. Core Insights - Modified plastics are not new materials but optimized versions of common plastics, enhancing their performance through various modification techniques [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing demand across multiple sectors, including home appliances, automotive, and renewable energy [10]. Summary by Sections What are Modified Plastics? - Modified plastics are enhanced versions of basic plastics like polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polycarbonate (PC), addressing their limitations through physical and chemical modifications [3][4]. - Key modification techniques include: - Filling modification: Adding fillers to enhance hardness by over 30% while reducing costs by 15% [3]. - Reinforcement modification: Incorporating high-strength fillers like glass fibers to meet automotive lightweight requirements [4]. - Functional modification: Adding agents to provide new capabilities, such as flame retardancy and extended lifespan [4]. Penetration Across Multiple Fields - Modified plastics have become indispensable in various industries due to their customizable advantages: 1. Home Appliances: 80% of appliance exteriors now use modified PP, reducing costs by 20% compared to metal [5]. 2. Automotive: The use of modified plastics in electric vehicles has increased to 80-100 kg per vehicle, addressing weight reduction needs [6]. 3. Renewable Energy and Environmental Applications: Modified plastics are crucial in solar energy and biodegradable materials, with significant advancements in product lifespan and environmental impact [8]. Market Explosion - The modified plastics market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2024, with production expected to reach 33.2 million tons [10]. - The industry is evolving towards high-performance and green materials, gradually replacing traditional plastics in various sectors, including high-end home appliances and new energy vehicles [10].

中辉能化观点 谨 慎 看 空 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性与供给过剩拉扯，油价震荡偏弱。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和， | | 原油 | | 南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱 | | | 谨慎看空 | 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | ★ | | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%， | | ★ | | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | 降负不足，LL | 供给弹性不足，基差持续偏弱。基本面供需双弱，停车比例未 14%，检修 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯 | | L | 空头延续 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Plastic - This week, the supply elasticity of price reduction has not been realized yet. At the end of the year, the supply increases while the demand weakens, putting pressure on prices. The Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price is under pressure [5]. Polypropylene - In the off - season, the price is under pressure, and there may be marginal changes in PDH on the supply side. The Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the market supply - demand pattern is still not optimistic [92]. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has not strengthened significantly. The low price in North China has continued to decline, and East and South China have made up for the decline. The 5 - 9 month spread fluctuates around - 50, and the warehouse receipts remain high at a stable level. The import window is compressed, and the non - standard import profit is at a relatively high level within the year [5]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%. The domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. The current maintenance scale in December has declined. It is expected that the supply will remain in a loose state. The import volume may still be high at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [5]. Demand & Inventory - The agricultural film start - up rate continues to decline, and the packaging film festival effect has gradually subsided. The downstream raw material inventory is maintained at a low level, and the demand for raw materials is expected to decrease. The inventory removal of the PE as a whole is not smooth, the upstream factory inventory has accumulated slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis fluctuates weakly, and the month spread strengthens slightly. The overseas price of PP rebounds and then falls back, and the import window tends to close [94]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The planned maintenance volume at the end of the year declines, and the supply center is high. The short - term PP import volume is limited, and the export volume is expected to maintain the basic level in the short term [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate is temporarily stable, but the orders of plastic weaving, pipes and other industries have weakened seasonally. The downstream is mainly digesting inventory, and the raw material procurement is sluggish. The inventory removal of PP as a whole is not smooth, and the inventory is higher than the same period of last year [93].

12月16日，苏州禾昌聚合材料股份有限公司（920089.BJ，以下简称"禾昌聚合"）发布公告称，通过合并报表范围内涉税事项自查，需补缴税款及滞纳金合 计1129.95万元。 公告显示，本次应补缴款项中，税款金额为1029.57万元，滞纳金为100.38万元。该补缴事项不属于前期会计差错，不涉及前期财务数据追溯调整，将全部计 入禾昌聚合2025年度当期损益。 禾昌聚合的主营业务为改性塑料的研发、生产与销售，主要产品包括改性PP、改性PA、改性ABS、改性PC/ABS、改性PBT等。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huachang Polymer (920089.SH) is rated as "Buy" due to the ongoing trends of "plastic replacing steel" and "plastic replacing wood," positioning China as the largest modified plastics market globally [1] - The company focuses on modified plastic particles and sheets, covering sectors such as automotive and home appliances [1] - Capacity release is expected to support the growth trajectory in the automotive sector, while the Southeast Asia expansion enriches the business dimensions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with downstream order cycles shortening and PP's rebound being blocked. It is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual end of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of December 19, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 19, there were little changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 27% [1][4] - Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still striving to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The cracking spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has been continuously falling, and the crude oil price has declined [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a decline, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,273 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,213 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.24%. The position increased by 10,464 lots to 533,959 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly declined. The drawstring was reported at 5,960 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19, there were little changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 27% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of December 19, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - The early petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $5/ton to $740/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PE faces continuous supply pressure with high - level supply, limited planned maintenance, and new device production expectations. Demand is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and cost support from oil is decreasing, making it difficult to have substantial improvement in the short - term [2] - PP's supply pressure is expected to be less than PE's. Although supply may increase slightly, there could be supply reduction due to high costs. Demand is generally weak, with only BOPP providing some support. Inventory remains high, and cost support has weakened, with limited short - term rebound drivers [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,476 yuan/ton (-3), and the PP main contract is 6,279 yuan/ton (+25). LL North China spot is 6,420 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-170), and PP East China spot is 6,210 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis is -56 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis is -66 yuan/ton (-167), and PP East China basis is -69 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE's开工率 is 83.9% (-0.2%), and PP's开工率 is 79.4% (+1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 300.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), PP's oil - based production profit is -320.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), and PDH - made PP production profit is -715.6 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 46.6 yuan/ton (+146.6), PP's import profit is -269.8 yuan/ton (-1.7), and PP's export profit is -11.9 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film开工率 is 45.2% (-1.2%), PE's downstream packaging film开工率 is 49.0% (-0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.0% (-0.1%), and PP's downstream BOPP film开工率 is 63.2% (+0.3%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is high, demand is weakening, inventory pressure is large, and cost support is decreasing, with no short - term substantial improvement expected [2] - **PP**: Supply pressure is less than PE, but demand is weak, inventory is high, cost support has weakened, and short - term rebound drivers are limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE on rallies for hedging; wait and see on PP, which is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: Not provided [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 on rallies [4]

2025 年 12 月 18 日 聚烯烃：投产前低后高，存量博弈加剧 ---2026 年 LLDPE、PP 期货年度行情展望 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 我们的观点：聚烯烃明年投产预计前低后高，总体供应增速放缓，但需求高增长亦难维持，PE、PP 或延续"挤压进口，增加 出口"及压缩各工艺利润以维持存量装置低开工，从而实现基本面供需平衡，价格趋势震荡偏弱。 所 我们的逻辑：1、需求端：2025 年倒推需求增速较高，但主要受样本因素、前期产业低库存回补及跌价投机需求释放等支撑， 2026 年海外贸易摩擦延续，IMF 继续小幅下调明年全球经济增速，国内需求偏温和复苏，内需增速大概率回归均值区间。2、 供应端：2025 年 PE、PP 有效产能增速分别高达 16.1%、12.7%，虽然明年投产规划多集中在 09、01 合约，新投产阶段性放 缓，但建成产能中枢仍较高，上半年预计供需存量博弈加剧。本轮中国引领的乙烯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The plastic supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on stream this year and the phasing out of the peak season for agricultural films, the L-PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 18, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE line were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, currently at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week-on-week. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline and raw material inventory dropping again. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. There are new plastic production capacities coming on stream. The demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the L-PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,475 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,545 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,476 yuan/ton, below the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.54%. The position increased by 21,649 lots to 561,776 lots [2]. - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from -100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,350 - 6,570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,000 - 8,680 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,770 - 7,940 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 18, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE line were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, currently at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week-on-week. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline and raw material inventory dropping again. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 670,000 tons week-on-week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat at $725/ton week-on-week, and the price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained flat at $745/ton week-on-week [4].

格隆汇12月18日丨海泰科(301022.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司改性塑料产品暂无航空领域的应 用。 ...